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ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC. (ARW)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Consolidated sales were $6.81B, down 2% YoY but above the high end of guidance; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.51 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.80 — both above guidance, driven by EMEA momentum, value-added offerings, and continued ECS strength .
  • ECS delivered 18% YoY sales growth to $2.04B with 5% billings growth; components declined 8% YoY to $4.78B but outperformed seasonal trends; consolidated non-GAAP gross margin was 11.3% (mix-driven compression YoY) .
  • Q2 2025 guidance: sales $6.70–$7.30B; GAAP EPS $2.80–$3.00 and non-GAAP EPS $1.90–$2.10; FX tailwind vs prior year; guidance excludes an expected 2%–4% sequential uplift to components sales from newly implemented tariffs .
  • Management flagged cyclical turning point indicators: book-to-bill at or above parity across regions, growing backlog, improving visibility; ECS backlog grew >50% YoY, with recurring revenue approaching one-third of billings — potential catalysts for sentiment and estimate revisions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Delivered both consolidated and segment revenue, as well as earnings per share, that exceeded our guidance ranges,” with EMEA momentum, value-added offerings, and ECS performance as drivers .
  • ECS growth: sales +18% YoY, billings +5% YoY; broad-based EMEA strength and North America acceleration; backlog up >50% YoY, with recurring revenue approaching one-third of total billings .
  • Operational execution: ~$352M cash from operations, ~$340M net working capital reduction, ~$280M gross debt reduction, and $50M share repurchases in Q1 .

What Went Wrong

  • Mix headwinds drove consolidated non-GAAP gross margin to 11.3%, down ~120 bps YoY; components gross margin 11.6% and ECS at 10.8% (non-GAAP) .
  • Components declined 8% YoY with EMEA components -19% YoY; FX was a headwind of ~$84M on sales and ~$0.08 on diluted EPS YoY .
  • Tariff uncertainty: Q2 outlook excludes an expected 2%–4% sequential increase in components sales from newly implemented tariffs; management is mitigating margin risk via intelligent sourcing/routing and foreign trade zones but highlighted complexity and customer confusion near term .

Financial Results

Consolidated and Segment Performance

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$6,823 $7,283 $6,814
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.88 $1.86 $1.51
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$2.38 $2.97 $1.80
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$784.8 $803.3 $774.0
Components Sales ($USD Millions)$4,946.1 $4,813.8 $4,777.7
ECS Sales ($USD Millions)$1,877.3 $2,469.1 $2,036.3
Components Operating Income ($USD Millions)$188.6 $116.9 $171.4
ECS Operating Income ($USD Millions)$75.6 $160.4 $77.3

YoY and Sequential Context (Q1 2025)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
Revenue ($USD Millions)$6,924 $6,814 -2%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.53 $1.51 -$0.02
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$2.41 $1.80 -$0.61
Components Sales ($USD Millions)$5,191.4 $4,777.7 -8%
ECS Sales ($USD Millions)$1,732.8 $2,036.3 +18%

Segment and Regional Breakdown (Q1 2025)

Segment/RegionSales ($USD Millions)YoY Change
Components – Americas$1,568.6 -1.8%
Components – Asia$1,869.2 -3.6%
Components – EMEA$1,340.0 -19.1%
ECS – Americas$909.9 +0.2%
ECS – EMEA$1,126.4 +36.5%

KPIs and Balance Sheet/Cash Flow (Q1 2025)

KPIQ1 2025Prior PeriodNote
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$351.7 $403.2 (Q1’24) Seventh consecutive quarter of positive CFO
Inventory ($USD Millions)$4,798.6 $4,709.7 (FY’24 end) Aging profile improved; turns near historical
Accounts Receivable ($USD Millions)$12,423.6 $13,031.0 (FY’24 end)
Gross Balance Sheet Debt ($USD Billions)~$2.8 $3.1 (Q4’24) Reduced ~$0.3B QoQ
Net Working Capital Reduction ($USD Millions)~$340
Share Repurchases ($USD Millions)~$50 $250 FY’24 Authorization remaining ~$275M
Cash Conversion Cycle (Days)77 77 (Q4’24) Stable

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/ActualChange
Consolidated Sales ($B)Q1 2025$5.98–$6.58 Actual: $6.81 Beat vs high end
Components Sales ($B)Q1 2025$4.35–$4.75 Actual: $4.78 Beat vs high end
ECS Sales ($B)Q1 2025$1.63–$1.83 Actual: $2.04 Beat vs high end
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q1 2025$0.98–$1.18 Actual: $1.51 Beat
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q1 2025$1.30–$1.50 Actual: $1.80 Beat
Tax Rate (%)Q1 202523–25 Actual (non-GAAP): 22.9 Slightly below midpoint
Consolidated Sales ($B)Q2 2025n/a$6.70–$7.30 Introduced
Components Sales ($B)Q2 2025n/a$4.80–$5.20 Introduced (excludes 2–4% tariff uplift)
ECS Sales ($B)Q2 2025n/a$1.90–$2.10 Introduced
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q2 2025n/a$2.80–$3.00 Introduced
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q2 2025n/a$1.90–$2.10 Introduced
Interest Expense ($M)Q2 2025n/a~$60 Introduced
Tax Rate (%)Q2 2025n/a23–25 Introduced
FX ImpactQ2 2025n/aTailwind: ~$58M sales YoY; +$0.03 EPS YoY Introduced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (10/31/24)Q4 2024 (2/6/25)Q1 2025 (5/1/25)Trend
Cycle/Demand IndicatorsEcosystem inventory correction persists Late innings of correction; book-to-bill just shy of parity; backlog stabilizing Book-to-bill at/above parity across regions; backlog growing; visibility improving Improving
ECS MomentumHybrid cloud strength; improving North America Growth in hybrid cloud, infra software, AI-related data center; billings +10% YoY Billings +5% YoY; backlog +50% YoY; recurring nearing 1/3 of billings Strengthening
Tariffs/MacroEMEA subseasonal; macro challenges Tariffs could add 2–4% to components sales (not in guide); margin mitigation; limited pull-ins Uncertain but manageable
Supply Chain/InventoryInventory down ~$125M QoQ; ~$1.3B over 12 months Inventory $4.7B; down ~$1.1B from peak; CCC 77 days Inventory $4.8B; turns/aging improving; NWC -$340M Normalizing
Regional TrendsEMEA components -35% YoY EMEA subseasonal; executing well EMEA momentum across segments; ECS EMEA sales +37% YoY EMEA ECS strong; components still down YoY
AI/Technology InitiativesArrowSphere global availability (prior) AI adoption supporting data center activity Launched Global AI Accelerator Program for partners (ArrowSphere AI tools, AI Academy, AI Factory) Expanding AI engagement

Management Commentary

  • “Improving trends across the broader market, including healthy momentum in EMEA… value-added offerings… continued performance in our ECS business” underpinning beats vs guidance .
  • “Book-to-bill ratios improved… at or above parity in all 3 regions… backlog is growing again” as indicators of a cyclical turning point .
  • ECS: “Year-over-year growth in billings, gross profit, and operating income… backlog grew more than 50% year-over-year… recurring revenue volumes now approaching 1/3 of our total billings mix” .
  • CFO: “Non-GAAP diluted EPS for the first quarter was $1.80… net working capital declined ~$340M… cash flow from operations was $352M… CCC 77 days” .
  • Q2 guidance excludes tariffs: “Incremental tariffs could increase global components sales by 2 to 4 percentage points sequentially… not in our baseline guide” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs: Clarified the 2%–4% sequential components uplift represents surcharges/price uplifts; margin risks mitigated via intelligent routing, FTZ capabilities, and process changes; guidance separates core business from tariff effects .
  • Inventory/Turns: Inventory levels near appropriate long-term ranges with pockets of excess improving; turns expected to improve modestly as demand recovers; IP&E commitment implies different working capital profile .
  • Order Behavior: Limited evidence of tariff-related pull-ins; US backlog building into Q3/Q4 rather than immediate term; Asia shows some activity but not needle-moving .
  • Visibility: Preconditions improving — declining ecosystem inventories, better book-to-bill, backlog building out in time; suppliers’ outlooks will lead recovery .

Estimates Context

MetricConsensus (S&P Global)ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$6,320,028,330*$6,814,017,000 +$493,988,670*
Primary EPS ($)$1.434*$1.80 (non-GAAP) +$0.366*
# of Estimates (EPS/Revenue)5 / 5*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implication: Meaningful beats on both revenue and EPS likely necessitate upward revisions for near-term quarters and FY models, tempered by tariff uncertainty and mix-driven margin dynamics .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Both consolidated and segment revenue, and EPS beat guidance; ECS strength and EMEA momentum were key drivers — supports a “turning point” narrative in components while ECS continues to compound .
  • ECS backlog expanded >50% YoY; recurring revenue approaching one-third of billings — durable visibility and margin support in a seasonally lighter Q1 .
  • Components posted ahead-of-seasonal performance with improving leading indicators (book-to-bill ≥1.0, backlog growth) — inventory turns and aging improving, positioning for recovery as mass market returns .
  • Mix compressed consolidated non-GAAP gross margin to 11.3% YoY; monitor segment mix (ECS vs components, EMEA vs Americas/Asia) and tariff pass-through effectiveness for margin trajectory .
  • Q2 guidance provides an FX tailwind vs prior year but excludes a 2%–4% tariff-driven uplift to components — upside optionality if tariffs flow through as estimated .
  • Balance sheet discipline continues: ~$352M CFO, ~$340M NWC reduction, ~$280M gross debt reduction, and ongoing buybacks ($50M) — enhances resilience and shareholder return capacity .
  • Strategic AI initiatives (AI Accelerator Program) and ArrowSphere platform adoption deepen ECS differentiation — a medium-term thesis lever on recurring/“as-a-service” growth .

Appendix: Non-GAAP Adjustments (Q1 2025)

ItemEPS Impact ($)
Intangible amortization$0.07
Restructuring & integration$0.25
Wind-down inventory impact-$0.03
Non-GAAP diluted EPS$1.80

Appendix: Q2 2025 FX and Tariffs Notes

  • FX expected to increase reported sales by ~$58M and diluted EPS by ~$0.03 vs Q2 2024; quarter-over-quarter FX tailwind ~$109M sales and ~$0.03 EPS vs Q1 2025 .
  • Tariffs estimated to add 2–4 percentage points to global components sales sequentially; not included in Q2 guidance; management pursuing routing/FTZ/process mitigations to protect margins .