AE
ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC. (ARW)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Consolidated sales were $6.81B, down 2% YoY but above the high end of guidance; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.51 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.80 — both above guidance, driven by EMEA momentum, value-added offerings, and continued ECS strength .
- ECS delivered 18% YoY sales growth to $2.04B with 5% billings growth; components declined 8% YoY to $4.78B but outperformed seasonal trends; consolidated non-GAAP gross margin was 11.3% (mix-driven compression YoY) .
- Q2 2025 guidance: sales $6.70–$7.30B; GAAP EPS $2.80–$3.00 and non-GAAP EPS $1.90–$2.10; FX tailwind vs prior year; guidance excludes an expected 2%–4% sequential uplift to components sales from newly implemented tariffs .
- Management flagged cyclical turning point indicators: book-to-bill at or above parity across regions, growing backlog, improving visibility; ECS backlog grew >50% YoY, with recurring revenue approaching one-third of billings — potential catalysts for sentiment and estimate revisions .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Delivered both consolidated and segment revenue, as well as earnings per share, that exceeded our guidance ranges,” with EMEA momentum, value-added offerings, and ECS performance as drivers .
- ECS growth: sales +18% YoY, billings +5% YoY; broad-based EMEA strength and North America acceleration; backlog up >50% YoY, with recurring revenue approaching one-third of total billings .
- Operational execution: ~$352M cash from operations, ~$340M net working capital reduction, ~$280M gross debt reduction, and $50M share repurchases in Q1 .
What Went Wrong
- Mix headwinds drove consolidated non-GAAP gross margin to 11.3%, down ~120 bps YoY; components gross margin 11.6% and ECS at 10.8% (non-GAAP) .
- Components declined 8% YoY with EMEA components -19% YoY; FX was a headwind of ~$84M on sales and ~$0.08 on diluted EPS YoY .
- Tariff uncertainty: Q2 outlook excludes an expected 2%–4% sequential increase in components sales from newly implemented tariffs; management is mitigating margin risk via intelligent sourcing/routing and foreign trade zones but highlighted complexity and customer confusion near term .
Financial Results
Consolidated and Segment Performance
YoY and Sequential Context (Q1 2025)
Segment and Regional Breakdown (Q1 2025)
KPIs and Balance Sheet/Cash Flow (Q1 2025)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Improving trends across the broader market, including healthy momentum in EMEA… value-added offerings… continued performance in our ECS business” underpinning beats vs guidance .
- “Book-to-bill ratios improved… at or above parity in all 3 regions… backlog is growing again” as indicators of a cyclical turning point .
- ECS: “Year-over-year growth in billings, gross profit, and operating income… backlog grew more than 50% year-over-year… recurring revenue volumes now approaching 1/3 of our total billings mix” .
- CFO: “Non-GAAP diluted EPS for the first quarter was $1.80… net working capital declined ~$340M… cash flow from operations was $352M… CCC 77 days” .
- Q2 guidance excludes tariffs: “Incremental tariffs could increase global components sales by 2 to 4 percentage points sequentially… not in our baseline guide” .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariffs: Clarified the 2%–4% sequential components uplift represents surcharges/price uplifts; margin risks mitigated via intelligent routing, FTZ capabilities, and process changes; guidance separates core business from tariff effects .
- Inventory/Turns: Inventory levels near appropriate long-term ranges with pockets of excess improving; turns expected to improve modestly as demand recovers; IP&E commitment implies different working capital profile .
- Order Behavior: Limited evidence of tariff-related pull-ins; US backlog building into Q3/Q4 rather than immediate term; Asia shows some activity but not needle-moving .
- Visibility: Preconditions improving — declining ecosystem inventories, better book-to-bill, backlog building out in time; suppliers’ outlooks will lead recovery .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implication: Meaningful beats on both revenue and EPS likely necessitate upward revisions for near-term quarters and FY models, tempered by tariff uncertainty and mix-driven margin dynamics .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Both consolidated and segment revenue, and EPS beat guidance; ECS strength and EMEA momentum were key drivers — supports a “turning point” narrative in components while ECS continues to compound .
- ECS backlog expanded >50% YoY; recurring revenue approaching one-third of billings — durable visibility and margin support in a seasonally lighter Q1 .
- Components posted ahead-of-seasonal performance with improving leading indicators (book-to-bill ≥1.0, backlog growth) — inventory turns and aging improving, positioning for recovery as mass market returns .
- Mix compressed consolidated non-GAAP gross margin to 11.3% YoY; monitor segment mix (ECS vs components, EMEA vs Americas/Asia) and tariff pass-through effectiveness for margin trajectory .
- Q2 guidance provides an FX tailwind vs prior year but excludes a 2%–4% tariff-driven uplift to components — upside optionality if tariffs flow through as estimated .
- Balance sheet discipline continues: ~$352M CFO, ~$340M NWC reduction, ~$280M gross debt reduction, and ongoing buybacks ($50M) — enhances resilience and shareholder return capacity .
- Strategic AI initiatives (AI Accelerator Program) and ArrowSphere platform adoption deepen ECS differentiation — a medium-term thesis lever on recurring/“as-a-service” growth .
Appendix: Non-GAAP Adjustments (Q1 2025)
Appendix: Q2 2025 FX and Tariffs Notes
- FX expected to increase reported sales by ~$58M and diluted EPS by ~$0.03 vs Q2 2024; quarter-over-quarter FX tailwind ~$109M sales and ~$0.03 EPS vs Q1 2025 .
- Tariffs estimated to add 2–4 percentage points to global components sales sequentially; not included in Q2 guidance; management pursuing routing/FTZ/process mitigations to protect margins .