Adtalem Global Education - Earnings Call - Q3 2021

Transcript

Speaker 0

Greetings, and welcome to Adtalem Global Education third quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Maureen Rezak, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations.

You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you. I'd like to remind you that this conference call will contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to the future performance and financial condition of Adtalem Global Education that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied by these forward looking statements. Potential risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause results to differ are described more fully in Item 1A, Risk Factors, of our most recent annual report on Form 10 ks filed with the SEC on 08/18/2020, and our other filings with the SEC. Any forward looking statement made by us is based only on the information currently available to us and speaks only as of the date on which it was made.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward looking statement, whether written or verbal, that may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law. During today's call, our commentary will refer to non GAAP financial measures, which are intended to supplement, though not substitute for, our most direct comparable GAAP measures. Our press release, which contains the GAAP financial and other quantitative information to be discussed today, as well as reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP measures, is available on our website. Please note that all financial results and comparisons made during today's call are on a continuing operations basis, exclude special items and are in comparison to the prior year period, unless otherwise stated. Telephone and webcast replays of today's call are available for thirty days.

To access the replays, please refer to today's press release. We'll begin today's presentation with prepared remarks from Lisa Wardell, Adtalem's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Bob Phelan, Interim Chief Financial Officer. Following the prepared remarks, Stephen Beard, our Chief Operating Officer, will join us for the question and answer session. And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Lisa.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining us on our third quarter earnings call this afternoon. Before we discuss our financial results, I would like to start by welcoming Bob Phelan, our Interim Chief Financial Officer, to the call. Bob is an accomplished financial leader and has been with Attaver since February. He previously served as our Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer and has transitioned seamlessly into managing the finance team and partnering with our business leaders and with me. Welcome, Bob.

Our third quarter performance was in line with expectations, delivering revenue of $281,000,000 and diluted EPS of $0.72 and we are reaffirming our full year outlook of 5% to 7% revenue growth and 28% to 32% diluted EPS growth. Our Workforce Solutions strategy continues to deliver strong results. We achieved 9% new student enrollment growth at our medical and health care institutions and double digit revenue growth in our Financial Services segment, which reinforces our confidence in the full year outlook. Let me provide a brief update on our planned acquisition of Walden University. We remain enthusiastic about the complementary programs and online capabilities that Walden brings to Attalem.

The acquisition of Walden University plays an important role in furthering our strategy, permitting us to achieve market leading scale and reach in health care education, strengthening our core nursing offering, expand into attractive high demand adjacencies, including social and behavioral sciences, and extend the customer life cycle from prelicensure programs to graduate and advanced degrees, market an attractive mix of online, on campus and hybrid learning modalities, and engage our employer partners at further scale. As we announced during the quarter, we closed on $1,650,000,000 of financing related to the Walden acquisition, and we continue to expect the acquisition to close in the 2022. We are making good progress on integration planning, including our plan for realizing at least 60,000,000 in cost synergies, which we believe will result in enhanced service to our students, and we have increased confidence that these are achievable financial metrics. Through our integration planning, we have seen cultural compatibility between ourselves and Walden, reinforcing our belief that Walden is a fantastic fit for AdCal and global education. As it relates to the US Department of Justice's inquiry into the alleged misrepresentations by Walden related to its master of science in nursing program, I want to reiterate that we take these matters extremely seriously.

Walden informed us that it completed its own investigation and did not find any evidence supporting the allegations contained in the DOJ letter. Walden presented those findings to the DOJ on 11/24/2020. As for our own investigation, that work is ongoing, although nearly complete. We are nearing the completion of a thorough inquiry conducted by independent legal advisers and to date have not identified any violations of the Federal False Claims Act with respect to the practicum component of Walden's nursing program. With the addition of Walden, Adtalem will become the premier national health care educator, providing comprehensive workforce solutions to employers modalities with superior academic outcomes.

The investment benefits from a compelling financial rationale, including attractive synergy opportunities and robust contributions to free cash flow. In our medical and health care segment, our scale, employer partnerships, and superior student outcomes differentiate our institutions and position us well to meet the growing need to fill critical workforce gaps. With a projected nursing shortage of more than 500,000 registered nurses by 2030 and up to 139,000 physicians by 02/1933, it is a public health imperative to create a robust pipeline of qualified and diverse talent to meet these evolving needs. Adtalem addresses these critical workforce shortages and facilitates training at scale by expanding access to education and establishing robust employer partnerships. More than 860 Ross Med and AUC graduates have matched to residency programs this summer.

AUC and RUSM grads will enter primary care residencies where the physician shortage is projected to be the most severe at about twice the rate of their US medical school graduate counterparts. As our graduates take the next step in their medical education journey and go on to serve their communities, we applaud them for their resilience and dedication in achieving this incredible milestone during these challenging and unprecedented times. Diversity in the health care industry continues to be a critical issue that we're committed to addressing. Studies demonstrate that patients of color often receive better care and health outcomes when paired with a physician of the same race. Ross Med and AUC graduate more black physicians than any other medical school in The United States.

As we continue to scale a highly diverse workforce of health care professionals for our employer partners, we're addressing both the physician shortage and health care inequities. We firmly believe that Adtalem's unparalleled ability to create a tangible social impact continues to distinguish us in the industry, and we intend to build on these initiatives moving forward. Not only does Adtalem address diversity in the industries we serve, but it's also committed to advancing diversity, equity, and inclusion within the company. These long term efforts were recently recognized by Adtalem being named one of America's best employers for diversity 2021 by Forbes. I'm pleased to share that Chamberlain performed well in the third quarter, reflecting operational improvements, targeted marketing investments and superior student outcomes of our programs.

Chamberlain's national average NCLEX first time pass rate for the 2020 calendar year reached 90.7%, exceeding the current national average of ninety point three percent. The school achieved these results through our efforts over the past several years to promote student success with an enhanced curriculum, increased student support, and leading technology. Chamberlain's new student enrollment increased by approximately 7% in the March session with growth in total student enrollment of about 6%. Growth in our campus BSN, master's, and doctoral level programs was partially offset by a slight decline in RN's BSN as frontline healthcare workers continue to be a challenge during the pandemic. Based on March 2021 data released by the American Association of Critical Care Nurses, Chamberlain's market share grew between twenty and fifty basis points over prior year for each of the programs it operates, including prelicensure BSN, RN to BSN, MSN, family nurse practitioner, and doctor of nursing practice.

Based on the AACN data, in 2020, Chamberlain was the largest nursing educator in the country. Early last month, Chamberlain announced the opening of its second California campus in Pasadena to meet demand in a key area of the country. In addition, the enrollment cap at our Sacramento campus was raised in January. Chamberlain now has 23 campus locations, the vast majority of which do not have caps on enrollment and offers evening and weekend classes and three or more starts per year at several campuses. We are pleased that the Chamberlain's New Orleans campus cap was recently lifted.

This location, which is on the Oshana Health campus, graduated its first 54 students during the pandemic with a hundred percent of those graduates passing NCLEX and two thirds of the students accepting job offers with Aushna Health. This is a strong example of the power of our workforce solutions model. As a further demonstration of our workforce solutions partnerships, we recently started a hybrid BSN program with University Hospital in Cleveland to allow working health care professionals, such as EMTs, paramedics, to earn their BSN while also balancing families, jobs, and other responsibilities. This leverages our existing campus, program, and infrastructure while finding a new way to reach prospective students. In the medical and veterinary schools, the January new student enrollment increased 21%, the highest January new student start in over eight years.

As we anticipated in our commentary last quarter, total student enrollment declined 6% as the winter surge in COVID-nineteen cases reduced the number of available clinical slots at our hospital partners, negatively impacting enrollment of clinical science students. We anticipate those students who are awaiting clinicals at the January as well as newly qualified clinical students will be placed into clinicals over the coming quarters reversing the temporary decline in total students. Approximately twenty percent of the students who are waiting for clinical placement at the beginning of this quarter have now been placed. I'm proud to share that Ross Vet set records for both the largest number of students as well as highest enrollment for January semester, reflecting the strong interest in the veterinary profession, improvements in student support, and the success of our brand investments. We believe that the strong appeal of veterinary medicine will continue as pet ownership has significantly grown during the pandemic.

In addition, Rossette recently announced it will benefit from a grant from PetSmart charities, which will allow its students to receive enhanced training opportunities while providing access to veterinary service services to under resourced populations within the community. The strength of our health care brands has been supported by our institution's thought leadership in their respective sectors. For example, yesterday, AUC, in concert with the Caribbean Center for Disaster Medicine, hosted its International Conference on Disaster Health Care Education virtually, emphasizing a one health approach to disasters. At Rossette, the school has been highlighting its alumni to pre veterinary students through a wide range of topics via free webinars and live streams to show the value of a DVM degree from Ross Bet. The series so far has attracted over 2,000 attendees.

In our financial services segment, we had a very strong performance in q three, highlighted by double digit revenue growth as we continue to capture demand generated by strong secular trends. We are also establishing prominent growth factors to enable expansion and diversification into new markets. Investments in new offerings are positioning the segment for long term growth. ACAMS remains the gold standard in the growing antifinancial crimes marketplace, which has become even more important as online commerce volumes continue to increase. We continue to see strong demand for antifinancial crime expertise across both traditional financial firms as well as newer fintech companies.

Despite facing significant COVID related headwinds, which impacted in person conferences, AKIMS has performed well. Nonconference revenue grew about 25% year over year in the third quarter driven by strong certification and risk assessment sales. This performance reinforces the continued long term opportunities in the overall anti financial crime market and the strength of ACAMS brand as it continues to address customer needs through its product and global diversification strategy. An example of this diversification is our sanction certification, which has been solid has seen solid sales and membership growth since its introduction in fiscal year twenty twenty. ACAMS is also a leader in fighting human trafficking and illegal wildlife trafficking through its certifications in these areas.

Our antihuman trafficking certificate, the first of its kind, was developed in conjunction with the Liechtenstein Initiative for Finance Against Slavery and Trafficking. In addition, ACAMS and the Worldwide Fund for Nature have developed a training certificate for individuals seeking to protect their organizations from the threats of illicit finance linked to the illegal wildlife trade. Both certificates have gained significant traction. ACAMS members continue to see the value in our global conferences, and we look forward to a return to in person conferences when it's possible to do so. We do plan to use a hybrid conference model to expand participation and supplement future growth of in person conferences.

We continue to host successful virtual conferences, and our most recent, the Virtual Hollywood Conference on April 13, was attended by over 1,000 professionals. OnCourse Learning is capitalizing on its leadership position and capturing the heightened demand in the mortgage and banking sectors. We continue to meet the needs of our customers through various offerings such as prelicensure, exam preparation, and continuing education. OCL has continued to build new relationships and expand its existing ones to drive long term growth. Overall, OCL's ability to scale volume to match client demand has driven significant growth, outperforming our expectations.

At Becker, we're maintaining our leadership position in the CPA test preparation market despite the COVID related hiring headwinds impacting large CPA firms and our institutional clients. Becker is well positioned for future CPA review growth when the test taker market returns to pre COVID levels. Our targeted investments continue to drive strong growth in continuing education. Becker's reputation has attracted both B2B and B2C customers seeking a variety of quality continuing education programs. We're growing our enterprise relationships with significant expansion into the CPA firms and corporate segments, adding two notable accounting firms in the third quarter.

Becker is offering new ways to meet demand, including targeted certificate programs and always on webcast, both designed to meet the evolving learning needs of busy professionals. The recent change by the Biden administration to the ninetyten rule, which requires including military benefits along with other title four federal funding, will not impact Adtalem. In fact, Adtalem's institutions have been voluntarily operating at a commitment of $85.15 inclusive of military funding since 2016. We believe that proactive policies like these and strong student outcomes are the formula for success under any administration. At Calum institutions regularly provide superior student outcomes with strong pass rates and match rates in addition to favorable cohort default rates compared with their peers and the nonprofit education sector.

Each of each one of Adtalem's institutions received an improved cohort default rate for the most recently evaluated year, and as a whole has a draft rate of 2.5%, even lower than the extremely low cohort default aggregate rate of 3.1% published last year. Adtalem institutions have historically significantly outperformed relative to their peers, highlighting the quality of Adtalem's programs and our focus on delivering superior student outcomes. I will now provide an update on our strong corporate governance practices. In line with our commitment to regularly refresh our board of directors with high quality, diverse representation, we were pleased to announce the recent appointment of doctor Charles Deshazer as an independent member of Adtalem's board. Doctor Deshazer currently serves as director of clinical products at Google.

As technology accelerates changes in the way patients seek and receive care, doctor Deshazer's unique perspective will greatly help us in further enhancing our programs and offerings to meet the evolving needs of our health care employer partners and addressing the critical talent shortages facing this sector. His background as a board certified MD in internal medicine will enable us to leverage his expertise in executing our strategy of becoming a leading provider of workforce solutions to the rapidly evolving health care industry. Finally, as it relates to our transformation, I am excited about the progress we're making towards our workforce solutions strategy, which is driving new and expanded partnerships in both medical and health care and financial services. Our academic outcomes and the demand for our offerings continue to position us well for growth. Adtalem's role in helping graduate health care professionals in response to significant demand for diverse and qualified talent is just one compelling example of this strategy in action.

These talent shortages exacerbated by the pandemic create a large and unmet market opportunity for qualified graduates in the health care and behavioral sciences professions. Adtalem is playing an important role in helping meet market demand for these health care professionals at a time when global health has never been more important. We continue to invest in our financial services segment as part of our workforce solutions strategy. Financial services is experiencing double digit revenue growth as the segment captures strong secular trends, and we continue to see strong demand for our certification and continuing education offerings. Our institutions and programs remain focused on superior student outcomes that impact the lives and communities in which we serve and provide access to education to those who may otherwise not have had the opportunity to pursue higher education.

This is a strong differentiator for Adtalem and one we believe will deliver long term value for all of our stakeholders. And now I'll turn the call over to Bob to review the financials in detail.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Lisa, and hello everyone. I'm pleased to have the opportunity to share our solid third quarter financial results today. In the third quarter, we continued to execute on our strategy, delivering results that were in line with our expectations. Revenue increased 3.4% to $280,700,000 We are seeing strong demand across our businesses driven by the strength of our student outcomes and our investments in marketing and new offerings. As anticipated, we faced incremental COVID-nineteen headwinds primarily related to reduced capacity from some of our clinical partners, which modestly impacted the top and bottom lines.

We expect these transitory COVID related headwinds to continue in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, as the number of people being vaccinated increases daily, we remain cautiously optimistic that the environment will continue to improve as we enter into the next fiscal year. The cost of educational services was a $123,100,000 in the third quarter, an increase of 3.7% compared with the prior year. This increase was primarily driven by increased cost at Chamberlain to support growth. Student services and administrative expense was a $108,500,000 in the third quarter, a 12.5% increase when compared with the prior year.

This increase was primarily driven by added sales and marketing expense to support continued growth and an increase in employee benefit costs. Consolidated operating income excluding special items decreased 12.9% to $49,100,000 in the 2021, primarily driven by lower clinical revenue and increased administrative expense. This was partially offset by enrollment growth over the last eighteen months at Chamberlain and revenue growth in Financial Services. Net income from continuing operations excluding special items was $36,900,000 compared with $43,200,000 in the prior year, and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations excluding special items was $0.72 compared to $0.81 an 11.1% year over year decrease. Now turning to our segment results for the quarter.

In Medical and Healthcare, revenue for the vertical was $230,200,000 a 1.3% increase compared with the prior year. The increase was driven by enrollment growth at Chamberlain over the last eighteen months. This was partially offset by lower clinical and housing revenue at Ross Med. As Lisa discussed, clinicals were impacted by the winter surge in COVID-nineteen cases, which reduced the availability of clinical slots at some of our partners. Revenue at Chamberlain in the third quarter increased 8.3% compared with the prior year period.

Total student enrollment increased 5.8% for the March session. Revenue for the medical and vet schools in the third quarter decreased 9.1% compared with the prior year, driven by lower clinical and housing revenue at Ross Med. We view the clinical revenue headwinds as transitory and expect that as the pandemic eases, we will resume growth in medical and vet school revenue. Medical and health care segment operating income, excluding special items, for the third quarter was $51,100,000 an 11.2% decrease. The decrease was driven by lower clinical and housing revenue at Ross Med and increased administrative expense.

Turning now to our Financial Services segment. Third quarter revenue was $50,400,000 an increase of 14.3% compared with the prior year, driven by revenue growth at ACAMS, OnCourse Learning, and Becker. ACAMS revenue was strong in the quarter as they continued to diversify their offerings to address a broader range of customer needs, providing future growth opportunities. Enforce Learning grew revenue in the quarter by leveraging its leadership position in a favorable mortgage market and growth in continuing in professional education. At Becker, revenue was up slightly as continuing education revenue growth was partially offset by a decrease in CPA test prep revenue.

Becker continues to be impacted by softness in test taking activity and hiring by accounting firms. Third quarter operating income in the Financial Services segment decreased 6.8% to $3,900,000 The decrease in segment operating income was primarily driven by increased sales and marketing expenses. Turning now to our balance sheet. We closed the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents, dollars 497,700,000.0, and outstanding bank borrowings under our existing Term Loan B of $291,800,000 During the quarter, we finalized the financing for our planned acquisition of Walden University by closing on $800,000,000 of senior secured notes and pricing $850,000,000 of term loan B to replace our existing term loan B upon close of the acquisition. This $1,650,000,000 of permanent financing along with its $400,000,000 revolver is in line with the committed financing that accompanied our acquisition announcement last September.

We repurchased 975,000 shares in the third quarter for a total of $37,000,000 and as a result, we had 49,700,000.0 shares outstanding as of 03/31/2021. We are planning to repurchase up to $100,000,000 of shares during fiscal year twenty twenty one. Turning to cash flow. In the third quarter, net cash provided by continuing operations of $81,900,000 was $34,400,000 lower than the third quarter of last year due to the timing of receipt of $35,500,000 of Title IV funds in December that normally would be received in January. Our capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $10,700,000 As a result, free cash flow in the third quarter was $71,300,000 compared with free cash flow of $104,600,000 in the prior year period.

As a reminder, we define free cash flow as cash provided by continuing operations less capital expenditures. Strong free cash flow generation is a hallmark of Adtalem's operating model. Adtalem has generated $177,700,000 of free cash flow on a trailing twelve month basis through 03/31/2021. As discussed last quarter, we continue to expect significant free cash flow growth in the coming years. We anticipate that Adtalem's standalone free cash flow will grow in line with earnings or at a low double digit rate.

Post Walden integration, we would expect Adtalem to generate over $300,000,000 of free cash flow on an annual basis. The strong free cash flow generation supports our commitment to delever the balance sheet to below 2x net leverage within twenty four months of the close of the acquisition. Moving on to our outlook. For the full fiscal year 2021, we continue to anticipate revenue this fiscal year to increase 5% to 7% and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations, excluding special items, to grow 28% to 32%, inclusive of share repurchases. As previously stated, we believe our stand alone business in the coming years will generate revenue growth in the mid single digits and earnings per share growth in the low double digits.

Additionally, we're excited about the future cost synergies and earnings trajectory that the planned Walden acquisition will provide at Talend. We continue to expect adjusted earnings per share accretion of $1.15 per share during the twelve months following the close date, excluding special items and purchase accounting effects. If we are able to close the Walden acquisition in the first quarter of fiscal twenty twenty two, the combined company would be expected to generate over $4 of adjusted earnings per share for fiscal year twenty twenty two. With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator for Q and A.

Speaker 0

Before commencing the Q and A portion of the call, I would like to turn the call over to Stephen Beard, Chief Operating Officer at Ed.

Speaker 4

You, operator. Before we turn to Q and A, I have an important update on the Department of Justice matter. Last evening, Walden and Laureate informed us that the Department of Justice had concluded its investigation into Walden's Master of Science in Nursing program. In addition, they indicated that the DOJ has decided that it will not intervene in the underlying lawsuit that sought to bring claims on behalf of the government. For more information on the DOJ's determination, I would refer you to Laurier's disclosures on Form eight k filed with the SEC earlier this evening.

As for our own investigation, we are nearing the completion of a thorough inquiry conducted by independent legal advisers. And to date, we have not identified any violations of the False Claims Act. We are pleased that the DOJ has declined to intervene, and we remain optimistic that these developments will pave the way for closing the transaction in the first quarter of next fiscal year as planned. And with that update, I will turn the call back to the operator for questions from our audience.

Speaker 0

Star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question is with Jeff Mueller with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Yeah. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. So you're maintaining your full year guidance, but there's this disruption to clinical availability, and it sounds like RN to BSN remains under pressure understandably because of the frontline nursing workers with the COVID surges. But I I guess my question is the revenue is quite a bit below this quarter than at least consensus had it modeled.

You're saying Q3 in line, and I guess you're saying as anticipated increases in COVID-nineteen headwinds. So should to be prudent, should we assume that full year revenue is more likely to come in in the bottom half of the range? Or are you not viewing it that way? Yes.

Speaker 2

Jeff, thanks for the question. Let me start with the nursing side and, and then move on to clinicals. Look. I think the good news here is that this is both a pure COVID story and a temporal timing story. Right?

Because as a remind actually, I'll start with medical. As a reminder, these are students who've completed all of their basic sciences. They've taken their step one exam. They're they're in the queue. One of the things, that has been helpful, to look at the silver lining of this pandemic is that, both medical schools, Ross and you at AUC, but obviously Ross has a greater volume of students, have really had to, expand the partnership base for clinical.

So, while we have many hospital partners that are not yet up to 100% or even 80%, 85% capacity, we also have added partners to that network. So while we do see, and have said on our scripted remarks as well here, that there will be COVID impact into, the next quarter as we ramp up those clinicals. We're sort of twenty five percent or so, of the students that were current. And then of course, there are new students coming into the queue who have passed step one, we do see that, as being a greater, and faster, come back into the clinicals. We won't get them all, in the next quarter or even the next two quarters, But certainly, we see that, clinical revenue coming back much faster than it did, say, in that first, timing of of clinicals when they were when they were shut down.

A lot to do with the resiliency of of of the hospital partners. And then part of that to do with kind of vaccinations, and the spread of that that's now allowing for more less urgent procedures and those procedures that are sort of backed up in these hospital systems, where clinical, students can then get experience. So, yes, it will continue, but we're we we believe that, we're gonna see good, traction in those clinical weeks. And, of course, if you look at the actual student enrollments across medical and vet, great new student enrollment. So that will drive into the next couple of quarters.

On the nursing, side, on Chamberlain side, there is, as you pointed out, a bit of pressure in RN and BSN. Far more pressure in January than March, which is why, you see that January session, new students a little bit lower. But just as a reminder, we did gain share in RN to BSN even though it declined a bit, and we, gained share also across most other programs, MSN, FFP, and the pre licensure. So if we combine that with the fact that, about 9% of our new students in Chamberlain were actually through our evening and weekend classes, which you'll recall, began sort of, I think calendar September 2019. We only have them on five campuses now, and we're rolling out another five campuses.

We're pretty confident that we're going to be, in good range of the revenue. Certainly, it would be prudent to say, as we look at 5% to 7%, we feel comfortable in the mid range, based on what we know about visibility into May, but we certainly are confident that we can reiterate that 5% to 7%, guidance.

Speaker 5

Okay. Helpful. And then, appreciate the update on the DOJ. In the eight k, there's a line about, I guess, Walden is still having this public government investigation designation with HLC, which that may be a matter of time post the DOJ decision before that falls away. But just reminded me, on accreditation, where does Walden stand?

Like, when does this HLC or any other accreditation, CCNE, when does it run through, or when's it renewed through?

Speaker 4

So just so I understand your question, accreditation in the ordinary course or a creditor approval of the transaction?

Speaker 5

Accreditation in the ordinary course for Walden from HLC, CC and E, any other kind of important accreditors?

Speaker 4

Yes. So as as we as we sit here today, all of Walden's programs are fully accredited, and the accreditors vary depending on the program as it relates to nursing. Their credit is the CC and E, and their accreditation is up for renewal next month. And Walden and Laureate, expects that accreditation to be renewed in the ordinary course.

Speaker 5

Our

Speaker 0

next question is with Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Thanks so much. Just one more on Walden. Can you just remind us what the time line is or what the what we need to expect before that deal closes?

Speaker 4

So, at this point, the remaining stage gates are really regulatory approvals. So HLC, reviews and approves the transaction. The HLC site visit has occurred. HLC is developing its report, on the basis of that site visit, to be presented to HLC formally at its June meeting. And we expect, they will take it up at the June meeting.

We are currently on that agenda, and we expect, that they will approve the transaction at that time. After that, the last gating issue relates, to the Department of Education's pre acquisition review. That work is underway at Ed, and we have been responding to information requests from them, related to their review. And then once the Department of Education signs off, then we are in a position, to satisfy the remaining procedural closing conditions and close the transaction on the time line that we have previously indicated.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. I'm sorry to keep the discussion around Washington, but, you know, we had a pretty big announcement from the president yesterday regarding the American Families Plan. And in looking it over, I'm thinking this could impact the company. There could be some positives, some negatives in there.

I'm just wondering what you're thinking. And specifically, a lot more funding going to the not for profit sector. Do you see that as stronger competition? On the other hand, he talked about a $2,000,000,000 pipeline for skilled health care workers with graduate degrees that, in theory, you could benefit from. So I'm just curious of

Speaker 4

your thoughts. Yes. So I think the way we would characterize it is that myriad of initiatives there represent a net positive for us. There are obviously some things that, to your point, the flow of dollars to not for profit institutions. But there's also quite a bit, as we understand the package, there for community college.

And those institutions often serve as a pipeline to our programs. And so we view that as a positive as well. And to your point, some of the investments related to broader health care workforce improvements also plays to our strengths. So again, lots to digest. We're still studying the proposals, but our preliminary perspective is that it's a net positive.

Speaker 2

Yes. And the only thing I would add to that, Jeff, is on the not for profit side, we see those as real partners. There's lots of things that we, do and have done, with those institutions, whether it's online capabilities or content or just partnering on curriculum, etcetera. That's something that we want to continue to do. And as Steve mentioned on the community college side, really that's a pathway for us.

We have several programs. I'll just use Chamberlain as an example, where we provide community college students, with free access to, several of the RN to BSN, BSN pre relationship classes just to, see whether that's something that they want to do and feel like they can pursue, and then we will enroll them, from this. So it's a good, pathway for us. And then I think just in general, in terms of health care and health care inequities and how that relates to health care education, my view is, great that money is being funneled into that because it's just there's just such a dearth of, programs and organizations and institutions, that are serving that social mission, and and we're proud to be a part of it.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's great to hear. I know you're not giving guidance for fiscal twenty twenty two just yet, and, obviously, you know, there are gonna be issues in terms of the timing of Walden. But let's assume for some reason that there's a delay in the acquisition closing. Just in terms of your core business, is it possible to give us some early read on where you think growth would come from next year and what we should be expecting excluding Walden?

Speaker 2

Well, will let Bob answer that. But I would just say, in general, as we look at the trends and we look at, how the portfolio has performed during the pandemic in terms of resiliency and and adaptability and new programs and things like that. I mean, ACAMS is a perfect example, right, having to think through, how to shift from that in person conference, model, although it wasn't a large part of the model. That really is where a lot of the, sort of sales and continuity for other things came from. And that has shifted.

So we think that that will continue. And we certainly see as we have this is not really a pandemic thing, is over the last few years we have shifted that med health care portfolio to really meet the needs of our employer partners, which is why we're focused for master's and doctorate, etcetera. And that talent from acquisition to retention, to prevent churn in these large hospital partners, we think that that's where a lot of our growth is going to come from. From a qualitative, perspective, we don't see that going anywhere. We see it continuing.

Speaker 3

And I think from a financial perspective, I mean, what we've said is that we do expect to have low double digit, EPS growth and, mid single digit revenue growth. So I wanted to just make sure we had that out there. And as you look at some of the disclosure we've got in the last part of the earnings release, you can see that, the math there, even from the low end of our estimate, you can you can look at that, and you can make some estimates off of that as well.

Speaker 6

Alright. That's really helpful. Thanks so much.

Speaker 0

Our next question is with Greg Pendy with Sidoti. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Hey. Just a couple of questions. First of all, just on the marketing at Chamberlain. Some companies in your space have been talking about inflation in terms of marketing, and I know you've been involved in sort of a step up on the, the value of a Chamberlain duvery. Can you kind of talk about where that stands nine months, year to date and kind of how we should be thinking about that going forward?

Speaker 2

Yeah. Look. Let me just start by saying, in in general, we certainly continue to make incremental marketing investment in in Chamberlain because, we see it as a as a real driver of of growth. But and we'll continue to do that. It supports our enrollments.

We've got good visibility into May and September. But what I would also say is that, we are, absolutely seeing the benefit of partnerships, with these hospital systems, and our partners who are, really helping us, if you will, with that, brand and marketing as we tie a lot of our social media marketing, to the mission, to our Care to Complete, to Chamberlain Cares and we're able to really get a broader lift from some of the Chamberlain, brand marketing, that we've done over the last, I would say, twelve to eighteen months. So, yeah, we there's areas that are, certainly, more competitive. I mean, RN to BSM would be one. We've got to really think through region to region on a marketing, basis.

But we're seeing good return for the from the additional marketing dollars. And and as long as that continues, we'll continue to invest in marketing on the on the Chamberlain side.

Speaker 7

Okay. Great. And then just shifting gears over to the regulatory side. You know, I understand you have good standing, I guess, on the ninety ten and cohort default rates. But can you just talk a little bit about gainful employment, specifically on veterinary and the medical schools and kind of how we should be thinking about that if that were to come back into the fall?

Speaker 2

Yeah. So we do not, have a gainful employment risk, based on the, starting salaries and, sort of requirements of the of the doctoral, the physician, and veterinarian programs. You you may recall, that when this came up, you know, almost five years ago, the vet school was the one where we paid the most focus, from a starting salary perspective because those first years that are really called, I guess, apprenticeship in vet school, which are very much like a residency in an allopathic MD degree, were not counted that way, and so those early years of lower salaries were counted. Since then, we have partnered with some of our, core, veterinarian hospital partners, Banfield Hospitals as an example, and really driven an increased starting salary for those veterinarians. About 9% of the vets who, graduate and enter the workforce or in The US workforce graduated from RockVet.

And there's about, I don't know, less than one vet per, opening for a veterinarian in The US. So those those are, stats that really allow us, to place our students. And then you mentioned cohort default rate, very connected to gainful employment rates. So our draft cohort default rate for the vet school is now 0.7%, meaning that, you know, 99.3% are paying back their loans. So we feel like we are in very good stead as it relates to our, programs in gainful employment.

Speaker 7

That's helpful. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 0

Our next question is with Jeff Mueller from Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Yeah. Thank you. Hopefully, I'll help you be more efficient in your follow-up call later. So you've been repurchasing stock, but the plan is to delever post acquisition close over the next twenty four months. Now that, I guess, the DOJ has dropped its inquiry and we're at this stage of the process, are you planning to continue to repurchase stock until the close?

Or at some point prior to the close, do you you stop repurchasing?

Speaker 3

Well, what I would say is that as as you saw in the release, we've repurchased $37,000,000 of shares in the current quarter, 82,000,000 year to date. And what we would plan to do is continue purchasing up to the $100,000,000 that we had talked about before. But we do have authorization, under our existing authorization for up to or or I should say a little bit more than $200,000,000 that we, again, were authorized for, but we're only going up to the $100,000,000 at this point.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then for OnCourse Luring, if I mean, I don't know what rates are gonna do, but if the mortgage market does start to soften and the current mortgage underwriters become, I guess, less constrained and it has an impact on hiring activity, how how tied is OnCourse Learning revenue to new hiring activity of mortgage underwriters?

Speaker 4

It's not a significant, driver of the revenue there. So, in the scenario that you just outlined, you know, were were that that demand for, mortgage origination professionals to Slack, we we we would see that, flow through the revenue trajectory as it relates to the mortgage product. That that having been said, you know, we are we are hard at work preparing to bolster our efforts in banking and credit union as well as our webinar business. It will never make up for the extraordinary run we've had in mortgage, but we would expect that proportionally, those would be larger than what we get from mortgage revenue and a steady state run rate. So, we plan to take full advantage of this tailwind for as long as it exists, but we do anticipate that it will revert to something more normalized.

Speaker 5

Yep. Makes sense. And then, just last for me. I'm not totally sure if I'm reading it correctly, but there's in Laureate slides, I guess it's discontinued ops online enrollment. I think that's Walden.

But did Walden new enrollment declined 4% in the fourth quarter? And if so, I guess, why? Because that looks quite a bit worse than the year the the prior year to date, last year. And any kind of, update on more current trends there?

Speaker 2

Yeah. No. So Yeah.

Speaker 4

I I'm I what I was gonna say is that I I need to get back to you on that. The the reporting segment for online for Laureate includes some other assets that are not part of the Walden business. So I don't have that data in front of me, but we can certainly come back with

Speaker 5

that. Okay. I I

Speaker 2

should just say, Wellesden is in the online, but they they did not have a a decline, last quarter. They have not reported this quarter, but they did not have a decline last quarter. So we'll find out next week.

Speaker 5

That's helpful. Thanks for clarifying. Thank you.

Speaker 0

We have reached the end of the question and answer session, and I will now turn the call back over to Maureen Rizak. Please proceed.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and thank you all for joining our call this afternoon. As always, if you have any questions, please reach out to me. Thank you for joining.

Speaker 0

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.