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AC

ASTRONICS CORP (ATRO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue rose 11.3% YoY to $205.9M, driven by record Aerospace sales; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.26 and adjusted EPS was $0.44 as margins expanded with volume and efficiency gains .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, Astronics delivered a revenue beat (~$206.0M actual vs $191.9M estimate) and an adjusted EPS beat ($0.44 actual vs $0.30 estimate); S&P’s EBITDA definition showed a slight miss versus its estimate while company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $30.7M (14.9% margin) (all starred values from S&P) .
  • Bookings hit a quarterly record at $279.7M (book-to-bill 1.36x) and backlog reached a record $673.0M, underpinned by a $57M FLRAA order; 76% of backlog is expected to convert within 12 months .
  • 2025 revenue guidance was maintained at $820–$860M; capex outlook increased to $35–$50M to support consolidation, capacity and automation; management highlighted tariff risks ($10–$20M potential annual material cost impact before mitigation) and detailed mitigation levers .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Aerospace delivered record sales of $191.4M (+17% YoY) with adjusted segment operating margin at 16.2%; CEO: “Our Aerospace business is performing quite well, with another quarter of double-digit revenue growth” .
    • Bookings and backlog set new records ($279.7M bookings; $673.0M backlog), including a $57M FLRAA development order; CEO reiterated FLRAA as a significant long-term driver .
    • Margin expansion from operating leverage and productivity drove adjusted operating income to $22.6M (11.0% margin) and adjusted EBITDA to $30.7M (14.9% margin) .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Test Systems remained challenged: sales fell to $14.6M (–32% YoY), with a $1.9M estimated cost revision on a long-term mass transit contract and segment operating loss of $(2.2)M; bookings were thin at $12.0M .
    • UK litigation drove a $6.2M reserve true-up (damages and interest accrual) and ~$3.0M in legal expenses in the quarter; management flagged potential legal-fee reimbursement risk (plaintiff estimate ~$7.2M) .
    • Macro/tariff uncertainty: management estimated potential annual material cost headwind of $10–$20M before mitigation, creating downside risk to outlook if not offset .

Financial Results

Performance vs prior quarters and prior year

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)203.7 208.5 205.9
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)(0.34) (0.08) 0.26
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)0.35 0.48 0.44
Gross Margin (%)21.0% 24.0% 29.5%
Operating Margin (%)4.1% 4.3% 6.4%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)27.1 31.5 30.7
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)13.3% 15.1% 14.9%

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus (Primary EPS is S&P’s “adjusted EPS” construct)

MetricEstimateActualSurprise
Revenue ($M)191.9*205.9 +7.3%
Primary EPS ($)0.30*0.44 +0.14
EBITDA ($M)26.5*25.0*(1.5)
Company Adjusted EBITDA ($M)30.7

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment and market detail

Segment / Market (Q1 2025)Sales ($M)YoY %Segment Op MarginAdjusted Segment Op Margin
Aerospace191.4 +17.0% 11.6% 16.2%
- Commercial Transport137.5 +13.3%
- Military Aircraft33.3 +94.8%
- General Aviation15.2 (22.0%)
- Other5.3 (4.5%)
Test Systems14.6 (32.1%) (15.3%) (10.2%)
Total205.9 +11.3% 6.4% 11.0%

KPIs and cash/liquidity

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Bookings ($M)189.2 195.9 279.7
Book-to-Bill (x)0.93x 0.94x (TTM 1.02x) 1.36x (TTM 1.08x)
Backlog ($M)611.9 599.2 673.0
Cash from Operations ($M)8.5 26.4 20.6
Capex ($M)1.9 3.2 2.1
Net Debt ($M)174.6 156.6 134.2 (LT debt net of cash)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance (Q1 2025)Change
RevenueFY 2025$820–$860M (Mar-4-2025) $820–$860M (maintained) Maintained
CapexFY 2025$35–$40M (Mar-4-2025) $35–$50M Raised
Backlog conversionNext 12 months~76% of $673M backlog expected to convert New disclosure
Tariff impact (materials)FY 2025 run-ratePotential $10–$20M before mitigation New disclosure
Test Systems program timing2025Volume start 2H25 cited earlier U.S. Army radio test program remains on track for Q4 start Narrowed timing

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrior Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Tariffs/MacroNo quantified impact; macro watched Estimated $10–$20M annual cost headwind pre-mitigation; levers include supply-chain shifts, pass-through pricing, duty drawback, FTZs; awaiting clarity Elevated risk; mitigation plan forming
Supply chain & ops leverageEfficiency improvements driving margins; refinancing executed Margin expansion with higher volume; “routine” operational execution underpinning results Improving
Boeing/Airbus build ratesBoeing strike impact discussed; outlook constructive Encouraged by Boeing rate progression; Airbus equally important; no major change in 2025 expectation Stabilizing to improving
FLRAA programDriver of Military growth $57M Q1 order; ~ $90M total development billings expected; strategic long-term driver Strengthening
Test Systems executionRestructuring; radio test ramp in 2H25; bookings soft EAC +$1.9M on long-term contract; bookings $12M; deeper review underway; Army program volume start still Q4 Under review
Legal proceedingsUK damages risk flagged; reserves rising UK damages $12.4M paid Q2; $5.7M interest reserved; plaintiff legal fees est. $7.2M; appeals likely into 2026 Largely contained; monitoring fee outcome

Management Commentary

  • “Our first quarter results show a very strong start to 2025… Adjusted EBITDA of $31 million, or 15% of sales… record bookings… record backlog” — Peter Gundermann, CEO .
  • “Adjusted operating income was $22.6 million or 11% of sales… adjusted EPS $0.44… interest expense declined $2.6 million YoY due to our successful refinancing” — Nancy Hedges, CFO .
  • “We estimate our tariff obligation… before mitigations is in the range of $10 million to $20 million… we have a full toolkit to deal with final tariffs… supply chain modifications… pass-through pricing… duty drawback, free trade zones” — CEO .
  • “Our Test business… results were complicated by the increase in estimate at completion on an elongated and complex long-term contract… we expect results to improve steadily… anchored by the production start for the U.S. Army radio test program… on track for the fourth quarter” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariff exposure and mitigation: Management cannot time mitigation until tariff clarity, estimates roughly 3/4 direct and 1/4 indirect exposure; prior pivot away from China provides some insulation .
  • Portfolio/business reviews: Ongoing reviews could lead to rationalization; Test Systems is the largest area under scrutiny given persistent challenges .
  • 737/MAX exposure: No major changes communicated by Boeing; Astronics expects to build at slightly reduced rate versus Boeing’s and is encouraged by rate progression into 2025; China impact not seen as consequential for 2025 .
  • Test Systems EAC risk: Additional risk remains on the long-term project; company is validating estimates amid a deeper review .
  • UK legal tail risk: Worst-case legal fee reimbursement estimated at ~$7.2M; total UK-related cash outlays around $20–$23M worst-case; appeals likely extend into 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025: Revenue ~$191.9M* vs actual $205.9M; Primary EPS $0.30* vs adjusted EPS $0.44; EBITDA $26.5M* vs S&P EBITDA “actual” $25.0M* and company Adjusted EBITDA $30.7M .
  • Implications: Street models likely need to raise revenue run-rate and adjusted EPS trajectory given stronger Aerospace volume and operating leverage; differences in EBITDA definition (S&P vs company “Adjusted EBITDA”) should be reconciled in models. Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Aerospace is the growth and margin engine: record sales, bookings and backlog with adjusted segment margin at 16.2%; momentum appears durable across Commercial Transport and Military, notably FLRAA .
  • The print was a clean top-line and adjusted EPS beat vs S&P consensus, with strong gross/operating margin expansion; GAAP results reflect legal accruals and costs .
  • Tariffs are the primary macro swing factor; management has credible mitigation levers but timing awaits policy clarity; near-term headline risk remains .
  • Test Systems remains the weak link; watch for scope outcomes from the business review and Q4 U.S. Army radio test production start as catalysts for improving profitability .
  • Liquidity improved (net debt down to ~$134M; $20.6M CFO), enabling continued investment (capex raised to $35–$50M) and optionality on capital allocation as operations strengthen .
  • Additional product/award news in Q1 (EmPower UltraLite G2 recognition; SkyShow Server launch) underscores competitive positioning in cabin power and IFEC .
  • Near-term trading: stock sensitivity likely to tariff headlines and Test Systems updates; medium-term thesis anchored by Aerospace backlog conversion, margin expansion, and FLRAA program execution .

Notes: All company metrics and quotes are from the Q1 2025 8‑K/press release and earnings call. S&P Global consensus and S&P-defined actuals are starred and may differ from company non‑GAAP definitions. Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.