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Aviat Networks - Q4 2023

August 23, 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon. Welcome to the Aviat Networks fourth quarter fiscal 2023 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note, the conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Andrew Fredrickson, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Andrew Fredrickson (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and welcome to Aviat Networks' fourth quarter fiscal 2023 results conference call and webcast. You can find our press release and updated investor presentation in the IR section of our website at www.aviatnetworks.com, along with a replay of today's call in approximately 2 hours. With me today are Peter Smith, Aviat's President and CEO, who will begin with opening remarks on the company's fiscal fourth quarter, followed by David Gray, our CFO, who will review the financial results for the quarter in fiscal 2023. Pete will provide closing remarks on Aviat's strategy and outlook, followed by Q&A. As a reminder, during today's call and webcast, management may make forward-looking statements regarding Aviat's business, including, but not limited to, statements relating to financial projections, business drivers, new products and expansions, and economic activity in different regions.

These and other forward-looking statements reflect the company's opinions only as of the date of this call and webcast, and involve assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements. Additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made on this call can be found in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or make public any revisions of these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Additionally, during today's call and webcast, management will reference both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our press release, which is available in the IR section of our website at www.aviatnetworks.com, and financial tables therein, which include a GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation and other supplemental financial information.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Aviat's President and CEO, Peter Smith. Pete?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Thanks, Andrew, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us to review Aviat Networks' results for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2023 and full year fiscal 2023. The company continued to focus and execute on our key long-term goals of top line growth, margin expansion, and bottom line improvement. Highlights from the fourth quarter include revenue of $91.2 million, which represents growth of 17.8% versus Q4 of last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $12.6 million, a 38% increase versus the same period prior year. Non-GAAP EPS increase of 30%. Strong debt-free balance sheet with $22.2 million of cash and marketable securities. For the full year fiscal 2023, Aviat achieved revenue growth of 14.4% to $346.6 million. This represents our third consecutive fiscal year of double-digit top-line growth.

Adjusted EBITDA of $47.0 million, a 23% increase over last year. Non-GAAP EPS growth of 20%. Year-end backlogs of $289 million, up 18% year-over-year. 336 new customers in fiscal year 2023. These financial and operational results reflect the continued demand we see for our products and services in the market, as well as the dedicated effort from Aviat team members around the globe. Let's discuss key highlights of the fourth quarter and fiscal year. Starting with the global 5G opportunity, our business continues to see healthy demand from service providers, thanks to our differentiated offerings. In the US, we see rising demand for our microwave backhaul products, despite flat to down 5G CapEx spend from tier one telecoms.

Operators build their 5G networks by initial investment in fiber, and as the coverage progresses, microwave receives a larger portion of the funding to expand backhaul in suburban and rural environments. This makes Aviat's demand curve somewhat different from the overall 5G CapEx cycle. We believe there will be growth from continued domestic investment in 5G as network build-outs continue into less densely populated regions. Internationally, we are still in the early stages of the 5G rollout and see strong interest for Aviat's products. At the beginning of the fiscal year, we announced our Bharti Airtel win, which marked a new tier one customer and geographic market for Aviat. Additionally, we see building momentum in Africa, Latin America, and Asia Pac. As a reminder, 5G currently makes up less than 15% of global mobile data traffic. We have many years ahead of operators investing in their 5G infrastructure.

We see more opportunities to win selective tier one and tier two business. We will continue to target new accounts and win business away from our competitors when we see a distinct economic advantage that Aviat can offer to the customer. This will bring additional global scale and capabilities to our business to drive long-term shareholder value. Our funnel of opportunities against our largest global competitor continues to strengthen, and we are focused on executing to gain market share and customers. Our current identified opportunity funnel for Aviat to replace this competitor is over $80 million. Our fiscal 2023 revenue taken from this competitor was $24 million, and our backlog is $34 million. We believe that the pressure on this competitor will remain for the foreseeable future, and operators will continue to seek replacements in their networks.

Shifting to our rural broadband business, the demand environment for this market remains strong. Government funding programs such as the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund, RDOF, and the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment, BEAD, continue to develop, and we remain well positioned with the Aviat Store. RDOF-related orders continued in the quarter, albeit relatively small, and we anticipate increasing revenue from RDOF projects in calendar year 2024. Although the dollar impact of RDOF to Aviat continues to be difficult to quantify at this early stage, we have booked blanket purchase orders from WISPs for the coming year in excess of $10 million. We view this as an encouraging sign of demand in this space. The recent announcement of the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment, or BEAD program, allocations to state governments represents a positive step to unlocking the $42.5 billion program.

As a reminder, this program was part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law passed in 2021. The program is aimed at increasing the availability and affordability of high-speed internet service across the United States, especially in rural and underserved areas. The announced allocations permit the states to begin planning their grant programs. From a timing perspective, we anticipate that approximately 20% of the announced allocations will begin flowing in late calendar year 2024. If other government broadband programs are an indication, the peak will be in 3-5 years following the initial release of funds with a long tail of spending. While the initial BEAD notice of funding strongly encouraged fiber deployment, we believe that the most economical and effective deployments will include wireless networks in the appropriate areas.

In recent meetings of the Subcommittee on Communications and Technology and the NTIA, no less than seven congressional representatives advocated for technology neutrality and cost-effective deployments. We believe this testimony strongly favors microwave. There are still many details with BEAD, we believe that Aviat has the right set of products and state-level relationships to benefit. We will continue to update the investor community as appropriate. Moving on to private networks. In the fourth quarter, our North America revenue of $55 million was driven by strong private network demand and a record private network backlog.

We believe we have the strongest portfolio for private networks, including highly reliable, high-power microwave radios for lowest overall total cost of ownership, affordable, high availability, IP/MPLS routers, LTE base stations, and Evolved Packet Core solutions, point-to-point and point-to-multipoint access products, end-to-end management software with expert systems and automation innovations for lowest OpEx, and a full portfolio of turnkey services. We remain the leading microwave vendor in private networks in North America and growing share of demand around the world. We believe that the private network opportunity in North America will remain strong as networks upgrade to LTE to support video and other data-driven applications. The funding environment remains strong for state and local governments, positively impacted by ARPA funds. The private networks business will also continue to grow through new international opportunities.

Our private network business drove the significant increase in year-over-year backlog, which we will get to shortly. In the fourth quarter, Aviat announced our new ultra-high power indoor radio, the IRU 600 UHP. UHP is a new 11 gigahertz radio with the highest transmit power ever supported in the industry in this band, which will allow greater reliability, more capacity, and longer lengths. Most importantly, UHP's ultra-high RF performance enables the replacement of 80% of the 90,000 six gigahertz links in the USA, creating a significant upgrade opportunity with customers concerned about interference in the six gigahertz band. This is another example of Aviat innovating to meet customer needs and deliver value-add solutions. We have already secured our first order and expect shipments to begin in the first half of fiscal year 2024.

In addition to the UHP radio, Aviat released a number of innovative products and offerings in fiscal year 2023, including IP/MPLS support for our WTM all-outdoor microwave platform to lower total cost of ownership and simplify customer networks. Vendor-agnostic multiband solutions, which make it easier and cheaper for operators to upgrade their networks by adding Aviat's E-band or multiband alongside legacy microwave systems. This also lowers the barrier for entry for Aviat into a new network. This helps secure our win with Bharti Airtel. Frequency Assurance Software, FAS, on third-party radios, which allows network operators to leverage our powerful software platforms to help them better manage their networks. Support for RDL 3000, Aviat's access products acquired via the Redline Communications acquisition to ProVision Plus, which allows network operators to improve the simplicity and reliability of managing their networks end-to-end.

We are proud of these innovations we have brought to the market and are excited to continue offering new solutions and products to our customers in the year ahead. Since artificial intelligence is prominently featured in the news, we will share our perspective. Aviat believes that AI applications will use bandwidth and create more demand for capacity. In line with the telecom peer group, the amount of additional demand and timing is difficult to estimate at this point. More specifically, the generative AI branch of artificial intelligence requires low latency and consumes a lot of data, which bodes well for telecom equipment and backhaul needs. On the product and services front, Aviat has invested in FAS, Frequency Assurance Software, and HAS, Health Assurance Software products.

These are both examples of expert systems that replicate a specialized knowledge set to provide powerful solutions to help customers manage their networks and monitor for interference and health, network health. This branch of artificial intelligence offers customers an impactful solution today. Going forward, Aviat intends to invest in additional software that eases the customer's burden of network operation. Moving on to the supply chain environment. We continue to see improvements. Nearly all of our supply has returned to pre-crisis performance. We have 13 components that remain in allocation. This is an improvement from 27 component allocations last quarter and over 100 a year ago. Additionally, component lead times continue to improve and are now normalized. We remain diligent in de-risking the supply chain and building redundancies where possible.

Our results for our customers and shareholders would not be possible without the dedication of all the Aviat employees. This was a great quarter and an excellent fiscal year. We remain focused and will continue to execute to grow and take share of demand. This has and will continue to be reflected in our financial and operational results. Aviat's core values include customer focus. As part of our focus on the customer, we advanced our voice of the customer process. The effort by our sales and marketing teams resulted in fiscal year backlog of $289 million. This represents an increase of 18% versus prior year. Note that we report on this metric annually, annually to avoid the inherent flux, quarterly fluctuations with a project-based business. Additionally, I'll highlight again that we added 336 new customers.

This was driven by state and local governments, service providers, Redline customers, and the expansion of the Store platform internationally. Given the high cost to switch, we believe that these new customers, along with our backlog, sets us up well for growth in fiscal year 2024 and beyond. With that, let me turn the call over to David to review our financials before coming back for some final comments. David?

David Gray (CFO)

Thank you, Pete. Good afternoon, everyone. During my remarks today, I'll review some of the key fiscal 2023 fourth quarter and full year financial highlights, noting our detailed financials can be found in our press release filed this afternoon. As a reminder, all comparisons discussed today are between fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 and the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022, unless noted otherwise. For the fourth quarter, we reported total revenues of $91.2 million, as compared to $77.4 million for the same period last year, an increase of $13.8 million, or 17.8%, driven by strong growth in all regions.

North America, which comprised 60% of our total revenue for the quarter, was $55.1 million, an increase of $6.4 million, or 13% from the same period last year, driven by our private networks and Tier 1 business. International revenue was $36.0 million for the quarter, an increase of $7.4 million, or 25.8% from the same period last year, with particular strength in the Middle East and Latin America. As Pete mentioned, our backlog grew 18% to $289 million, continuing our trend of trailing 4-quarter book-to-bill ratio above 1, started back in fiscal 2018.

Gross margins for the quarter were 35.8% and 36.2% on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, as compared to 35.5% or 35.7% in the prior year. The improvement in gross margin was driven by better price cost dynamics, partially offset by regional mix. Fourth quarter GAAP operating expenses were $26.3 million, an increase of $4.1 million from the prior year. Fourth quarter non-GAAP operating expense, which exclude the impact of restructuring charges, share-based compensation, and deal costs, were $22.0 million, an increase of $2.5 million. The increases in both GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses were primarily due to the addition of Redline, while GAAP was further impacted by M&A expenses related to our acquisition of NEC's Wireless Transport Business.

Fourth quarter GAAP and non-GAAP operating income were $6.3 million and $11.0 million, compared to prior year GAAP of $5.2 million and non-GAAP of $8.1 million, or increases of 20.6% and 34.9% respectively. Fourth quarter tax provision was $2.4 million, compared to $2.8 million last year. As a reminder, the company has $500 million of NOLs that will continue to generate shareholder value via minimal cash tax payments for the foreseeable future. Fourth quarter GAAP net income was $3.3 million, as compared to $4.5 million last year, which included a one-time gain of $2.6 million on marketable securities that did not repeat.

Fourth quarter non-GAAP net income, which excludes restructuring charges, share-based compensation, M&A-related costs, and non-cash tax provision, was $10.3 million, compared to $7.8 million for the same period last year, an increase of $2.5 million, or 32.1%, driven by growth and margin expansion. Fourth quarter non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.87 per share on a fully diluted basis, compared to $0.67 per share for the same period last year, an increase of 29.9%. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $12.6 million, an increase of $3.4 million, or 37.5% from the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 13.8% for the quarter. Moving on to the balance sheet.

Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the fourth quarter totaled $22.2 million, with no debt, up from a net cash position of $16.2 million the prior quarter. Fourth quarter cash flows from operations were $7.4 million, driven by a significant improvement in our inventory levels from $40.9 million in Q3 to $33.1 million in Q4, as we consumed some of our buffer stock that helped us navigate the supply chain issues of the past 2 years. We made good progress in terms of DSO. Our net DSO declined by 5 days versus Q3. Note that net DSO includes trade AR and unbilled balances, net of advanced payments and unearned revenue, and is a key indicator of our working capital efficiency. Our balance sheet remains very solid, leaving us well positioned to execute our long-term plans.

With that, I'll turn it back to Pete for some final comments. Pete?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Thanks, David. Before opening up for Q&A, I'd like to put some context around the demand environment, summarize our fiscal year, and provide a few updates. Over the past several months, we have received many calls focused on the channel dynamics of microwave compared to fiber. We see vast differences in the channels, and we'll detail three distinguishing characteristics. First, throughout the supply chain crisis, the largest constraint impact in a quarter was less than $2 million in Aviat revenue. With this ability to meet demand, we never experienced the order pattern witnessed in the fiber space. The fiber space experienced many instances of double ordering. Our lead times prior to the supply chain crisis and today are similar. Note that prior to the supply chain crisis, during the crisis, and today, we can book and ship certain orders within a given quarter.

As a result, our customers did not place duplicative orders in an attempt to see which order was filled first. Second, Aviat's business is approximately 60% private networks. The majority of these customers are government entities and utilities. Due to the critical nature of these customer networks, the customers expect to be prioritized. At the outset of COVID, before the supply chain crisis, we ramped our inventory purchases to support mission-critical networks. As a result, we did not disappoint our customers and double ordering did not ensue. Third, many of Aviat's customers operate small and medium-sized networks. These networks are often sourced to a single supplier. As a result, the probability of substitution is low. This strongly discourages double ordering that prevailed in the fiber space. Further, we have excellent insight into our largest mobile network operator since we perform the installations.

Lastly, the Aviat Store holds inventory for ISPs. As a result, our customers do not have an incentive for double ordering, and we have reasonable knowledge of the inventory held at our customers. We will close this discussion with a comment related to the fiber versus microwave comparison as it relates to CapEx spending. As noted previously in the call, we observed the headlines that US Tier one CapEx spending is declining year-over-year. Aviat is undeterred since network builds typically proceed with fiber first, followed by microwave. Therefore, this mixture of CapEx spend is shifting to favor Aviat's microwave. Fiscal year 2023 represented a significant year for Aviat Networks. The company continues to grow. We successfully integrated our first acquisition in greater than 10 years with Redline Communications and achieved results ahead of our financial model for this acquisition.

We announced the NEC Microwave Transport acquisition, which builds on the 2019 North America Channel Partnership. Our strategy has expanded. Historically, we have focused on growth in private networks, Tier 2, and ISPs. As we have developed a portfolio and our value proposition, we have the wherewithal to pursue and win select Tier 1s. We now include select Tier 1s in our overall strategy. As an update on the NEC transaction, we currently expect the transaction to close in the October to December quarter, subject to regulatory approval and customary closing conditions. Aviat remains focused on our growth drivers of 5G, rural broadband, and private networks. The 5G upgrade cycle is still early. In rural broadband, there is significant government funding in the US and other select countries that aim to expand the availability of high-speed internet access.

Aviat is well positioned to address this market, and we see these government efforts as a positive catalyst for our business. Lastly, we see increasing demand for private network builds for critical communications and data needs. Based on the company's outlook, we are establishing our fiscal year 2024 guidance, exclusive of the NEC business. We will update our guidance upon closure of the NEC transaction. Revenue for fiscal year 2024 to be in the range of $367 million-$374 million, and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $51 million-$56 million. Based on the current weather pattern, order pattern, and record backlog, we expect revenue to build through the fiscal year. Our business comps on an annual project basis rather than a sequential quarterly basis.

We expect our first quarter to show modest growth compared to fiscal year 2023, second quarter with strong growth, third quarter, again, modest, and the fourth quarter will be our strongest. We will revisit guidance as the year develops, and we work with our customers on the timing of our backlog. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions.

Operator (participant)

All right. To ask a question, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, please press star 11 again. Please stand by. We compile the Q&A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question will come from the line of Scott Searle from Roth. You may begin.

Scott Searle (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Nice job on the quarter and appreciate the color. Pete, maybe to start on the gross margin front, looks like product had a good quarter, services, a little bit of a softer quarter. I know that really tends to depend on mix. I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more on that, if there's anything to read into the quarterly changes, and how should we be thinking about gross margins looking out at the September quarter?

David Gray (CFO)

Hey, Scott, it's Dave. I'll, I'll take this one. Yeah, I think, you know, I wouldn't read too much into the mix between service and product, right? You know, we, we disclose it separately because those are the rules. In reality, you know, as a project-based business, we tend to evaluate it at the project level, irrespective of whether, you know, services margins for one project are high or low, or vice versa, for, for equipment. From a, you know, kind of an overall outlook standpoint and, and sequential, you know, outlook, we did have, you know, some fairly large projects that were, you know, somewhat dilutive to our overall margins.

We think, you know, the, the, inflation cost and price dynamics are kind of moving in our favor now. You know, we did experience a bit of margin improvement quarter-over-quarter sequentially, and we would expect that trend to continue. You know, as we look out into FY24, you know, I think, we, we'd be looking at, you know, kind of a somewhat similar trend of growth overall that we saw from Q3 to Q4, I think is a reasonable guideline. We, we expect- hope it's stronger, but I think that's good.

Scott Searle (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Great, helpful. Pete, maybe if I could, you spent some time talking about RDOF and BEAD, but ARPA funding has really been starting to filter into the results. I think there have been a number of wins, whether it's coming from various public safety, utility, or in some cases, tribal lands. I'm wondering how that pipeline is looking and how important that is as we look out to the fiscal 2024 timeline.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah. I think, you know, we had thanks to everyone for listening. Our, our prepared remarks went a little long. We cut the tribal lands part of the script. We see strength there. With respect to the ARPA funds, they need to be used by December 31st. You know, some other research out there that, that has said that only less than 10% of that is, has been spent. We think that, that, that is gonna bode well for our growth going forward. We, you know, when we win projects, we, you know, our backlog is up significantly. Sometimes we know that it's ARPA funds and sometimes we don't.

Our private network backlog is at a record demand, and we would think that part of that is, you know, could be tied to the, the ARPA allocations.

Scott Searle (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Great, helpful. Lastly, if I could, just to follow up on the NEC transaction, it sounds like that's still tracking your expectations for the October, December timeframe. I'm wondering if you could just elaborate or reiterate what the expectations were. You know, you had some goals in terms of cost cutting, some gross margin, et cetera. I'm wondering if you could just give us a quick update in terms of your latest thoughts on that front and how you're feeling about customer retention. Thanks.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah. We-- When we put the-- when we announced the transaction, we thought we, you know, we, we thought about country- customer retention, and we said that we were gonna do in the first 12 months after close, $150 million in revenue. We said that we wanted to get to by the fifth quarter to make it accretive. Exiting the second year, we wanted to get it in the 11%-13% EBITDA range. I would say that we feel good about all of those commitments. You know, what we will definitely do is as we close the transaction, we will update our, our overall model.

You know, what I have to say is NEC has been extraordinarily cooperative in the interim period, and that cooperation bodes well for certainly exceeding, exceeding our profitability targets.

Jaeson Schmidt (Analyst)

Great. Thanks so much. I'll get back in queue.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Erik Suppiger from JMP Securities. Your line is open.

Erik Suppiger (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. Same question and congrats on a good quarter. First off, that backlog number, is that going to continue to grow from these levels, or is that seasonally driven, and then it comes back to get into the Q1? Then I have a follow-up question.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah. On the backlog, right, we have a project-based business, so we only disclose the backlog once every 12 months. I think, you know, we, we see our funnel that just 12 months from now, the, the backlog should be greater than $289, but we, we, we basically provide that insight once a year in case, you know. Yeah, that's what we do. David, do you have something to add?

David Gray (CFO)

Yeah. No, I think, you know, just add to that, our, our, our goal is to maintain a book-to-bill to revenue ratio above 1 on a trailing 12-month basis, which, which says that, you know, our, our-- essentially, our orders are growing faster than, than our revenue overall.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah.

Erik Suppiger (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Secondly, just on the funding environment, do you have a sense, I'm thinking more on the rural broadband side, how much of your, how much of the projects that you're working on at this point do you think are getting funding from RDOF or some of the available funding out there? How much of the market is that influencing at this point?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

That's, that's hard to, that's hard to, to, to say. What I can point to is last quarter we said that we had orders from four of the largest RDOF recipients. They were small in nature, and those projects are continuing. I would also say in the script, we mentioned $10 million or so of blanket purchase orders. We see, we see the rural broadband demand environment improving. What, what I would say we don't know is how long some of those RDOF recipients, how long it's gonna take to convert, you know, what we see as design activity into the volume purchases.

Erik Suppiger (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Very good. Okay. Thank you.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes line of Jaeson Schmidt from Lake Street. Your line is open.

Jaeson Schmidt (Analyst)

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just curious if you could provide an update on the Redline business. It sounds like you continue to see really good traction there. It outperformed your expectations, but what's the funnel look like for fiscal 2024?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

So here's what I, I could say. You know, we don't have the funnel broken down, right, right in front of us. What I can say is the first year, what we did was we stabilized the business. We took out the Canadian public listing cost, so, that went better than expected. You know, year two of the ownership, we're starting to recognize cross-selling opportunities, right? Selling Aviat product to Redline customers and vice versa. Thirdly, you know, in the, in the last 90 days, we announced, or approximately 90 days, we announced putting our, our network management software on the, the Redline products, which we think over the next 6 months, we'll start to land some of those, and we'll drive some additional margin expansion.

Jaeson Schmidt (Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful. Then just as a follow-up, how big of a contributor was the Aviat Store in fiscal 2023 or just Q4?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

In the fiscal year, it was about 8%-9%, pretty similar to contributor as last year.

Jaeson Schmidt (Analyst)

Okay, perfect. Thanks a lot, guys.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Theodore O'Neill from Litchfield Hills Research. Your line is open.

Theodore O'Neill (Analyst)

Thank you very much, congratulations on the good quarter, Pete.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Thanks, Theo.

Theodore O'Neill (Analyst)

First question on guidance. If I take the midpoint of the range of guidance for sales and EBITDA, it implies that EBITDA grows twice as fast as revenue. What's the driver for that?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, look, we've had an emphasis on profitable growth since I arrived here, and that's what we're continuing to do. We think favorable mix driven by North America private networks, adding more software into the mix, and we get leverage out of our increase in volume. That all of that, that doubling on the midpoint of profitability versus top line growth is also while we plan to invest in R&D. I think that, you know, our plan is to execute that, and I, I really think that's an insightful question, Theo. Thanks.

Theodore O'Neill (Analyst)

Okay. On the BEAD state allocations, I've read that New Mexico and Minnesota are saying that if they do an all allocation to fiber, they're not gonna reach the goals of getting everyone on broadband. Does that create an opportunity for microwave? Also, if it does, is there some selling effort that needs to go on to make that happen?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Okay. Let me talk about the selling effort first. The reason Aviat's excited, but it's early days for, it's a little bit premature for BEAD, is Aviat's best relationships out of all of our customers are with state governments, and that's due to our 911 first responder private network business. We are really excited about what Minnesota and New Mexico and the seven congressional representatives that we cited said, said. We think that this is a, BEAD is a great opportunity for us, albeit a little bit out in time. The comments on fiber being too expensive, it is. It is.

There was a congressional rep from Kentucky basically said, "Are we gonna really run fiber to seven homes?" What Minnesota and New Mexico said is that fiber's too expensive, and certainly to connect, you know, low density endpoints, it doesn't make sense. We see this as an opportunity. We see states starting to say they'll get more mileage for their money using wireless, and we're starting to see it in Congress. We think that this is a fantastic development, and we just need to continue to use our sales channel that carries the nine one one private network business. It's to the same states, the same procurement organization. We think we're well positioned.

Theodore O'Neill (Analyst)

Okay. My, my last question is that, last week, the FCC granted special authority to AT&T to use a microwave backhaul in Maui because the cable network infrastructure was destroyed. Are you seeing any increase in, like, weather disaster awareness among your, your clients as a possible sales, benefit for using microwave?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah, so-

Theodore O'Neill (Analyst)

Is this just something that always happens whenever there's a disaster?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

This so this happens typically in disaster, right? We have network in on Maui. What we did for the customer when this happened was, so it's not the, the AT&T deployment, but it's the utilities. We helped monitor their network. We recommended, you know, what the damage that they had, how they should respond from a networking perspective. We've, we do this when hurricanes hit. We did this with the, the Nashville bombing, issue, issue. Here's one, one thing that I'd like to emphasize. The reason microwave has traction in situations like this is because it's faster deploy, and it's actually more reliable than fiber.

Theodore O'Neill (Analyst)

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Tim Savageaux from Northland Capital Markets. Your line is ready.

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Great, thanks. Congratulations on your third year of double-digit revenue growth and on the order growth in particular, which looks to be, you know, let me start with a 2, given the strength in backlog that you reported. I'll kind of ask my annual fiscal year-end question about, well, a couple of things really. About, you know, that order growth and backlog growth relative to what you're guiding to from a revenue growth perspective, trying to relate those two items. You know, as you look at the fiscal 2023, you're kind of flattish in the US and big international growth. You know, based on the order book or, or any other visibility you might have, how do you expect that to change into 2024, I guess, given what you're seeing from a backlog perspective?

I'll follow up down there.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

So with the, the backlog, the growth in backlog was the principal driver of that was growth in North American private networks, right? You know, 2023 was flattish in North America, and we see North America, the demand environment, picking up. We'll get a bigger contribution from North America than we did in 2023. We also think that that favors margin, margin growth. In terms of how to think about the backlog and, you know, kind of our last couple sentences around the guidance, we did, you know, in the, the recently completed quarter, we did see some big projects come in.

The statement about wanting to look at how the customer's projects develop is really, right, is really related to, you know, how fast we get to the design freeze and how fast we get that to revenue. If that, you know, if the customers wanna move quickly, then we will, you know, as the year progresses, update our guidance. If they kind of go, you know, at a, you know, a slower pace, then we'll leave the guidance as is. We're hopeful, Tim.

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Great. Can you at this point, can you say that you expect, you know, on a % basis, faster growth in North America than international?

David Gray (CFO)

Hmm. I wouldn't go that far because, you know, you've got, you know, kind of rule of big numbers working against North America a little bit, but.

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah

David Gray (CFO)

I think, you know, it should be closer.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

All right.

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. You know, Pete, you mentioned that as you look forward with a greater North America contribution, you would expect that to be especially in private networks, you expect that to be accretive in gross margins. That's sort of what we saw, you know, Q3 to Q4, both a pretty big volume increase and positive mix shift to North America, and yet we didn't see much in the way of gross margins. You may have touched on it already, but if we can just kind of dig down on that, is, you know, why we didn't see more gross margin expansion, given those two positive kind of mix drive? Well, one, one volume, one mix, I guess, two positive drivers.

David Gray (CFO)

Yeah, well, the, the mix actually went against us in, in Q4 a little bit, right? I mean, there was a regional mix component, but certainly, with North America returning to growth, that, that did help us. There was kind of a broader headwind within our overall product mix. It could be, you know, for this business, it could be a little volatile, right? Because we do have a large, you know, software component, and if that fluctuates quarter to quarter, that can swing it, you know, 20, 30 basis points. You know, I think there wasn't anything. The dynamics behind Q4 were positive. We expect those, that, that kind of level of improvement to continue. Yeah, we'll, we'll, we'll take it from there.

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, lower software revenue, I guess.

David Gray (CFO)

Yeah.

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Is that my takeaway there? Okay.

David Gray (CFO)

Yeah.

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Sounds good. Maybe last question for me. I, I don't know if your terminology has changed, Pete. I think last quarter, you, with regards to the Huawei replacement pipeline, you talked about bookings, revenues, and backlog, and eventually we got that all to foot. Here, now you're talking about funnel of $80 million, I think, versus a commentary on bookings of $50 last quarter. I don't know if those are two different things. You know, your backlog would

David Gray (CFO)

Right

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

... would suggest bookings of $58 million, or whether the funnel has expanded, and you're just giving us a broader sense of the opportunity.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

The funnel has expanded, so we're giving you a broader sense of the opportunity, Tim. Yep. To be specific, in last quarter, we wanted to communicate was, at the end of Q3, year-to-date revenue of $14.5, that we have bookings of $36.1 and a funnel of $50.5. You know, now we would say that, you know, bookings are about the same, revenue went to $24, and the overall funnel is $82. We see the opportunity building there. Does that help?

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Sorry, I was on mute. Yeah, no, I was on mute there. Sorry. That's good for me for. Well, I guess one other factor I might have expected, too, as from a mix standpoint, where you'd see, you know, higher North America and yet, you know, not much impact in gross margins. I might have assumed that was maybe a lot of Verizon coming in at year-end at lower margins, but it sounds like that's not the case.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

That's actually a fair statement, Tim.

David Gray (CFO)

Uh-

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah.

David Gray (CFO)

That was a contributing factor, yeah.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

That yeah. So, I would say that your suspicion is true. You know, I'd also like to say that, you know, with the Wall Street research of tier one CapEx, this domestic tier one customer was strong and continues to be strong.

Tim Savageaux (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. I guess real last question for me, strong enough to make it on the 10% list for the year, or did you have anyone else getting to 10%?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

No. No, we have none in the none, no 10% and for the quarter or for the year.

Scott Searle (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Dave Kang from B. Riley. Your line is open.

Dave Kang (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good afternoon. First question is on, on the NEC acquisition. Just wondering if, their trailing 12-month revenue changed materially since they have a greater exposure to service providers compared to you?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

no. They're not. Their TTM data is not materially changed from the time that we put together our investment thesis.

Dave Kang (Senior Research Analyst)

Also going forward, you don't expect any material changes?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

No, we don't. Recently I visited their largest customer. Yeah, I visited their largest customer, and they're within 1%-2% of what we modeled. Here I'll go further. The second biggest region, our leader was there today, and they're within percentage points of the way we modeled it. I would say the, you know, the data we used in our investment thesis remains intact.

Dave Kang (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. And then on, on Bharti Airtel, I guess, you know, just trying to find out what inning are we in? You know, some are saying just getting started, some are actually saying things have plateaued out. What, what do you see from, from your side?

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

We, we expect significant growth from Bharti in fiscal year 2024, both top, top-line contribution. You know, when we took that business, we said that it was low margin, and we've been able to, you know, execute on our value engineering projects. We, we expect that we'll get some margin lift as that demand materializes. We feel good about it.

Dave Kang (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. My last question is for David. What was CapEx for the quarter, and what do you think, what's your projection for the year?

David Gray (CFO)

Okay. For the quarter, it was, I think about $400,000. Let me just verify that. I've got a full year cash flow. For FY24, it's gonna be a little bit higher this year. You know, we finished FY23 with CapEx of $5.3 million. We've got in our plan around, you know, $6 million-$6.5 million for this year, as we do have some refreshment investments coming up, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Dave Kang (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will actually be a follow-up from Scott Searle from Roth Capital Partners. Your line is open.

Scott Searle (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, Pete, just to quickly follow up on a couple of geographic questions. You talked about the cadence of network builds being led by fiber and then the evolution to wireless transmission or backhaul. You know, looking at Dish, you know, they've gotten to the 70% POP coverage mark. Now it gets a little bit more difficult in terms of covering those incremental POPs. I assume that's basically commentary around that, and the expansion going forward will have more microwave links in it. 1. I'm wondering if you're seeing more on that front and kind of what your broad-based expectations are for the upcoming fiscal year. 2. Looking at Europe, it continues to be a very small portion of the mix.

They're behind from a 5G build standpoint, and wireless transmission has always been, you know, a big component of those network builds. It, it always seems like you guys are kind of on the cusp of some business expanding there. I'm just wondering what your, your high-level thoughts are in terms of growing that as an opportunity, or should we not be planning on, you know, some future growth and contribution coming from the European arena? Thanks.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah. Okay, first, Dish, right? To restate, Dish met the federal deadline to cover 70% of the US population by June 30th. Dish looks to be taking a breather on CapEx for the first 6 months of our fiscal year, and we expect the microwave rollout to really start, you know, in the January to March quarter, and we feel like we're well positioned. That's, that's what I would say about Dish. I would say in the Europe region, we, we have 2 big projects. We see some weakness from the one of the specialists that's headquartered in Europe, and we think that that will help drive double-digit growth in Europe in fiscal year 2024. There's a little color.

Scott Searle (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks so much.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That will conclude Q&A for today. I will now turn the call back over to Peter Smith for any closing remarks.

Peter Smith (President and CEO)

Yeah. Well, thanks to our shareholders and the investment analysts for joining the call, listening to our extended remarks on our fiscal year 2023. We think it was a great year. We look forward to providing an update on the next quarter, in the next 90 days, and, you know, hopefully getting to close in a short amount of time and giving an update on the NEC Wireless Transport Business transaction. Thanks. Thanks, everyone. Talk to you soon.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.