Axalta Coating Systems - Earnings Call - Q2 2017
August 3, 2017
Transcript
Speaker 0
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Axalta Coating Systems Second Quarter twenty seventeen Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the management presentation. Today's call is being recorded and replays will be available through August 10. Those listening after today's call should please take note that the information provided in the recording will not be updated and therefore may no longer be current.
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Chris McCray for a few introductory remarks. Please go ahead.
Speaker 1
Thank you, and good morning. This is Chris McCray, Axalta's VP of Investor Relations. We appreciate your continued interest in Axalta and welcome you to our second quarter twenty seventeen financial results conference call. Joining us today are Charlie Shaver, Chairman and CEO and Robert Bryant, EVP and CFO. This morning, we released our quarterly financial results and posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations section of our website at axaltacs.com, which we'll be referencing during this call.
Both our prepared remarks and discussion today may contain forward looking statements reflecting the company's current view of future events and their potential effect on Axalta's operating and financial performance. These statements involve uncertainties and risks, and actual results may differ materially from these forward looking statements. Please note that the company is under no obligation to provide updates to these forward looking statements. This presentation also contains various non GAAP measures. In the appendix, we've included reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial results.
For additional information regarding forward looking statements and non GAAP financial measures, please refer to our filings with the SEC. I will now turn the call over to Charlie.
Speaker 2
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Hopefully, you've had an opportunity to review our financial results that we released this morning. I'll provide some color on Axalta's performance and then we'll update how we see the rest of the year shaping up. In the second quarter, we saw solid overall revenue growth of 4% on a constant currency basis, but our organic net sales and adjusted EBITDA were somewhat below our operating plan. This was largely due to weakness in April across several lines of business, though April was followed by two noticeably better months in May and June.
In spite of this challenged quarterly result, we continue to be confident in our medium term operating plans and believe we can execute the balance of the year closer to our original expectation. As such, our revised guidance incorporates the second quarter results, offset by expected acquisition contribution in the second half, albeit muted deal integration expenses are expected to continue through the balance of the year. Other changes in our outlook are variable and also include a different phasing than we communicated last quarter based on greater visibility of specific drivers for the period. Our second quarter results include the contribution of Wood Coatings and Spencer Coatings acquisitions for the month of June as well as other transactions completed during the last twelve months, resulting in a 2.3% overall net sales growth or 3.8% on a constant currency basis. Organic net sales were held back to a degree by a slower quarter from Refinish, particularly from a challenging quarter in South American countries on volume and weaker price mix in other areas, as well as ongoing lower average pricing in transportation coatings driven by select light vehicle customers.
The impact of flatter organic volumes and negative price mix effects was a drag on profitability, with adjusted EBITDA declining just over 9% in the quarter. The drivers of this performance included Axalta specific factors as well as more market driven elements. For Axalta, we did see some headwinds from certain customer exposures and selling channel adjustments. Additionally, we faced some uneven demand in a few areas that affected market participants generally, as well as the confluence of lower prices with certain customers at the same time that raw material costs have inflected upwards. These factors, of course, are common to all coatings players to some degree.
Although we expect some ongoing impact of these drivers in our second half, we believe most of these issues are not structural headwinds. As we've commented before, our business rests on a stable foundation of broad based demand and individual periods can reflect more volatility than underlying markets depending on specific customer and competitive behaviors. This was such a period. Compared with the second quarter last year, we had both significant benefit from both stronger volume and price mix. This quarter saw the opposite to varying degrees.
Looking ahead, I continue to see a stable global business climate. As we've highlighted previously, we're working through a transition period in raw material input pricing along with some product mix and inventory adjustments in select Refinish channels. We see our demand outlook is fundamentally sound for the balance of the year, supported by slightly recovering Latin America, a stronger level of commercial vehicle demand versus last year and broadly stable refinish demand at the body shop level to drive growth for Axalta. Light vehicle demand also remained stable overall to date at the market level, exceeding expectations from many observers. So if you would turn to Slide three of our presentation, I would like to review some of the second quarter highlights.
Taking financial results, we grew net sales by 3.8% ex FX, including a 6.5%
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contribution.
Speaker 2
Slightly organic net sales primarily stemmed from lower average price mix with volumes essentially flat year over year. Importantly, we believe that volumes were impacted by pull forward of demand from Q2 into Q1, which is now more apparent given the April result, particularly in Refinish. Consolidated volume growth was 2% for the first half, and May and June results were stronger than April, giving us some confidence that certain drivers were likely period specific. Although demand remained stable across most markets through the quarter, we did see choppiness in a few areas. This included a substantial impact from lower Latin America refinish volume, largely in South America and somewhat below planned net sales in other refinish markets due to channel and product mix impacts.
Industrial demand was solid overall, and we grew organic volumes nicely in the quarter, but still faced headwinds in specific markets in several regions. Axalta's light vehicle volumes actually continued to outperform the markets that we serve, though we saw below market performance in EMEA due to our specific customer mix. Adjusted EBITDA reported at $227,000,000 compared with $251,000,000 in the prior year quarter, with margins of 20.9% versus 23.6 respectively. This result was below our plan due to several factors including uneven demand in some markets, lower pricing and unfavorable mix in several end markets and impact from raw material inflation. Robert will add a little bit of color to these shortly.
In response to this result in operating profitability, we've taken a number of corrective actions to get us back on our intended course for the balance of the year. They include the creation of a special initiative to bolster industrial end market volume growth profitability, our decision to merge the North American and Latin America regional teams into a single Americas organization with associated cost savings, and integration of several new operational leaders in Europe, Asia and North American targeted business areas. Our commitment to executing on productivity goals continues. We've taken steps to bolster our existing Exalt A Way savings programs as well as find incremental savings as we look to offset pressure points seen in the second quarter. Additionally, we've recently implemented pricing actions to help offset raw material inflation, including our announced surcharge to offset dramatically higher TiO2 prices effective effective August 1 across many product lines.
Finally, I'm pleased to note that our complexity reduction initiative, which we've discussed over time starting last year, is beginning to show measurable contribution to our Axalta Way goals. Exiting this year may become the largest single category of savings within the Axalta Way targets. We've noted several operating highlights on Page three as well, which we'll cover in detail later, but I'm pleased that our innovation investment and our focus on the customers yielding significant wins and progress, helping to drive our overall growth ambitions. Regarding the balance sheet and cash flows, we did see higher leverage at quarter end resulting from our decision to finance recent acquisitions with incremental term loans, retaining our balance sheet flexibility with a good strong cash balance. Free cash flow for the quarter at $74,000,000 was lower than prior year, reflecting reduced operating earnings and somewhat adverse working capital results, in part due to the timing of sales and payment cycles throughout the quarter.
Regarding capital appointment M and A, we had another very active quarter, as you know, closing our largest acquisition to date, the Valspar Wood Coatings business in North America, as well as the Spencer Coatings Group in The UK and a small third acquisition in Europe. We're moving quickly to integrate and assimilate these businesses into Axalta, and I'm very pleased particularly with the progress thus far with our new wood coatings team. Subsequent to quarter end, we also announced a binding offer to acquire the European and Chinese operations of IBA, which is a significant participant in the wire enamel market for coating magnetic wires used in electric motors. The company has a broad portfolio of products and the fit is very complementary to Axalta. The combination with IVA would make Axalta an even stronger player in the global electrical insulation market.
This deal is expected to close around the end of this year or early next year and is subject to EU regulatory review given that we currently participate in this market. At close, we plan to provide incremental financial disclosure around this acquisition. In another notable event for the quarter, we reached the accounting conclusion to deconsolidate our Venezuela operations. Our overall outlook for the country, for which we had already minimized expectations going into 2017, as well as our ability to control our operations worsened even further during the quarter, triggering this conclusion. As a result of the deconsolidation, we've taken a pretax charge of $71,000,000 in the period to eliminate the remaining Venezuelan net assets from our consolidated balance sheet.
For comparative purposes, net sales from Venezuela in the second quarter twenty sixteen were approximately $19,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA was about $11,000,000 Net sales and adjusted EBITDA for second quarter twenty seventeen were not material. Turning to Slide four, I'll update our progress against our goals and priorities for 2017. We have a clear objective of outgrowing our end markets with a multipronged strategy involving broadening of our product lines, expanding into underserved markets and driving consolidation in certain areas. Progress towards this goal was partially stalled in the second quarter based on net sales results, but I believe we remain on track to end the year with this objective intact, and we're working diligently to execute on all our plans on all fronts. New volume opportunities exist in every channel we serve, and we've recently scored real success with new accounts in commercial vehicle, which are starting to see some overall market recovery in most regions, a myriad of new accounts in industrial, including our recently acquired business as well as organic opportunities and ongoing account wins and refinish across multiple regions.
Regarding Axalta Way and productivity, we remain on track to achieve our full year savings goals. From second quarter results, it's apparent that this cost structure progress was offset by lower core pricing. Still, we
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believe it's a transition period giving rising input costs and the coatings market has a long history of successfully navigating input price volatility with stable variable margins over time. Our current focus is on ensuring that we seek necessary offsets to mitigate this near term pressure. Further, we're doubling down on incremental cost reduction efforts in recognition of the gap in profitability created in the quarter. Regarding our operating cost discipline, our push for continuous improvement has yielded further results this quarter. We completed the closure of two sites in North America without losing net capacity or ability to serve customers, while also yielding some headcount reduction.
Speaker 2
We also kicked off our Axalta operating excellence system designed to improve our operations via tiered accountability meetings, standard work, problem solving at the point of failure, improved quality and lower production cost. Finally, we completed our waterborne production consolidation project in Wuppertal, Germany, which helps us meet our Axalta Way goals this year and offers lower cost per unit with longer term benefits. In terms of driving customer service and innovation, we had a number of examples introductions included coatings for next generation automotive suspension and coil springs, a new wire enabled brand called Voltolu, the launch of several Corlar branded high solids epoxy primers for ag and construction markets, a new DuraPond 70 spray product for aluminum extrusion coatings, a new Imran Elite Clear Coat for commercial vehicle customers and a host of others. We're well on track to introduce over two fifty new products in aggregate across Axalta twenty seventeen, supported by a robust development and launch process. In addition to new products, we celebrated several facility openings, including our significantly new Asia Pacific Technology Center in Shanghai, which consolidates a number of prior disparate centers into a single effective regional technology hub.
We also opened key refinish training centers for refinish customers in North Carolina and Dubai. And finally, we opened a new India headquarters, which will help us serve our longer term growth ambitions in this key coatings growth market, building on our existing presence there. Finally, our customer awards received from General Motors and Honda simply underscore the commitment that we have to performing at the highest level of customer technical support in the automotive coatings industry. In terms of capital allocation through the second quarter, we've now deployed well over $500,000,000 in M and A so far this year on five completed transactions. This puts us well on track to meet our longer term inorganic growth targets.
I'm also pleased with the progress that's been made towards our integration objectives. Our pipeline of acquisition opportunities remains solid even now, and we see a reasonable pace of future deals continuing based on both availability and normal execution timing variables. Regarding our focus on a strong balance sheet and cash flows, the second quarter represented a different cash flow and a boost to net leverage given the active deal flow. Just to be clear, we remain committed to both strong cash flow and our prior stated balance sheet objectives in the medium term, and we look forward to meeting these objectives with progress expected in the coming quarter in terms of reduced financial leverage. In summary, while we acknowledge that the second quarter did not meet some of our key profit objectives, we're confident that ongoing operating discipline and some key initiatives we've launched to address areas of weakness will bear fruit as we move through the remainder of the year.
We believe we're firmly on track for our longer term key objectives and look forward to demonstrating continued progress on this in the upcoming quarters. Robert will now share some further detail on our second quarter results.
Speaker 3
Thanks, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide five to review a consolidated summary of our second quarter results. Constant currency net sales in the quarter increased 3.8% year over year, including 6.9% growth in Performance Coatings and down 0.7% in Transportation Coatings. This overall growth was driven primarily by 6.5% acquisition contribution, offset by a slight decline volume and lower average pricing in the period. Negative foreign currency translation impacted net sales by 1.5% in the quarter, substantially less than the 6.9% impact in second quarter twenty sixteen and continuing to moderate slightly versus the 2.2% seen last quarter.
Most of this FX impact came from the weaker euro and yuan, though we are pleased to see relative stabilization versus the last several years. Axalta's fairly flat organic growth volume reported in the quarter was driven to a large extent by declines witnessed in Latin America Refinish as well as EMEA Light Vehicle volumes. These detracting factors were offset by continued solid growth in industrial globally as well as some lift in commercial vehicle demand, particularly in North America. Overall price mix realization was a decrement of 2.4% in the quarter, including lower average prices in all end markets, but most notably in light vehicle. As we've communicated before, continued sharing of savings from prior lower raw material inputs with certain key customers was going to be an ongoing feature in the quarter and without notable offsets to date from efforts underway to adjust pricing to reflect more recent variable cost inflation.
Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of two twenty seven million decreased 9.5% from same quarter last year, with an associated margin of 20.9%, down two seventy basis points year over year. This decrease was driven primarily by the impact of lower price mix in the quarter as well as smaller impacts from slightly lower organic volume, variable cost pressure and ongoing FX deflation. Acquisition contribution partially offset these effects, though recent deals only contributed for one month in the quarter and are not yet at a full margin run rate given the early integration steps in the process. The wood coatings business was an asset carve out deal from Valspar and will require significant effort to integrate. Axalta is utilizing transition services agreements for various back office and operational support activities in the short term, which are dilutive to the contribution from the business.
We expect these will be largely largely transitioned by the end of the fourth quarter of this year. Moving on to our second quarter Performance Coatings results. Second quarter net sales in Performance Coatings increased 6.9% year over year before FX impact of 1.8%, driven by 10% volume growth from acquisition contribution in the period, partially offset by a 1.9% pullback in organic volumes and 1.2% lower average selling prices. Second quarter Refinish net sales decreased 4.3% ex FX versus last year, driven by lower organic volumes in Latin America, largely in South America and from lower average selling prices, mostly in North America as well as subdued volume growth. We did lose some sales opportunity in Q2 from destocking at certain distributors in North America.
This impact is expected to be transitional, however, and not structural, as we remain net share gainers at the end customer body shop level. We also continue to gain share in broader geographies, and our shop count has continued to climb year to date. Volumes were also subdued in China due to ongoing impact from insurance market adjustments. As reported, net sales declined 5.8%, reflecting a 1.5% negative currency translation effect. Industrial net sales increased fully 34.4% year over year ex FX, including substantial acquisition contribution of 30.5%.
Second quarter Industrial organic volumes also increased mid single digits with growth coming from all regions, prices holding relatively stable, though down a bit in aggregate and moderate mix effects that continued to detract from net sales. Operating execution was not perfect though in the second quarter and we did not achieve upside to our plan, most notably in North America and EMEA. Performance Coatings generated adjusted EBITDA in Q2 of $147,000,000 versus $1,156,000,000 in the year ago quarter, a 5.8% decrease. This reduction was driven by a combination of somewhat lower volumes and unfavorable price mix, pressure from initial variable cost inflation and modest currency translation impact. This was partially offset by a net reduction in fixed costs, ongoing savings from productivity initiatives and the contribution of recent acquisitions to period.
Adjusted EBITDA margins for of 22.1% compared to 24.7% last year, driven by lower volume and average pricing and variable cost headwinds, partially offset by lower fixed costs. Switching now to our results. Second quarter net sales in Transportation Coatings were down slightly year over year before negative currency impact of 1%, including a 2.1% pullback in light vehicle net sales, offset by 4.3% growth year over year in commercial vehicle. Segment volume growth of 2% was further supported with 1.4% acquisition related volume growth, offset by reduced average pricing of 4.1% to net out at a flat result. Light Vehicle net sales in the quarter decreased 2.1% before foreign currency impact of 0.8%.
Volumes were relatively matched in the market in most regions, though lagged somewhat in EMEA in the quarter due to Axalta specific customer exposure in that region. On a global basis, we continue to outperform the markets that we serve, which were down low single digits relative to Axalta volumes up single digits. Pricing was off low to mid single digits in the quarter as Axalta continued to see moderate impact from price concessions to select customers and in some products due largely to competitive market conditions, reflecting the lower variable cost environment through last year and some unique operating challenges facing certain light vehicle customers. Commercial vehicle net sales increased 4.3 ex FX as production volumes accelerated slightly in the last quarter, which confirmed that 2016 represented a near term bottom for truck markets in North America as vehicle demand continues to improve year to date. Forecast for truck production in North America have been revised upwards several times this year, while global truck demand also remains healthy, particularly in China so far this year.
Order rates for non truck customers also improved sequentially and certain new account wins specific to Axalta as well. Transportation Coatings generated second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $80,000,000 versus $95,000,000 last year, while adjusted EBITDA margins of 18.9% compared with 22% last year. Lower average pricing was the primary driver, partially offset by the contribution from acquisitions completed since last quarter. Smaller negative contribution also came from operating cost inflation year over year. Turning now to our debt and liquidity summary.
As of year end, cash and cash equivalents totaled $482,000,000 up from $439,000,000 at first quarter end. Total reported net debt was $3,900,000,000 resulting in a net debt balance of $3,400,000,000 Axalta raised $459,000,000 of incremental term loan borrowings in the quarter to fund the three completed acquisitions. Given stable credit markets, we also use the opportunity to refinance our existing U. S. Dollar term loans, bringing the total new term loan issuance under our credit agreement to an even $2,000,000,000 Benefits
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of
Speaker 3
the deal include lower pricing, now at LIBOR plus 200 basis points and a five quarter extended maturity. In terms of interest savings, the 50 basis point lower pricing provides $77,000,000 in annual interest cash savings on the previous principal balances. Our net leverage ratio was 3.8 times as of June 3037, a sequential increase from 3.1 times at March month end. Components of this increase include the incremental term loan issuance and the impact of the euro strengthening on our euro principal debt balances. The net debt ratio notably includes only one month of the adjusted EBITDA from recent acquisitions.
If we were to pro form a the deals using a normal run rate of operating profit over a period of twelve months, we would have a net debt ratio of closer to 3.6 times. Free cash flow for the quarter, defined as cash flow from operations less capital expenditures, was $73,700,000 compared to $174,800,000 in the same quarter a year ago. The lower comparison was due to higher working capital needs in the quarter, including the timing of sales with much more strength later in the quarter. It also reflects acquisition integration costs paid in the period and an increase in certain other working capital accounts due to timing factors that we expect to reverse in coming quarters. Regarding our leverage and capital allocation, we remain committed to our 2.5 to three times leverage range that we have communicated over time.
We have allowed an increase this quarter to accomplish a series of what we see as compelling M and A transactions. We expect that our leverage will trend down going forward from both profit growth and cash build, and we also maintain the right to repay debt should market conditions warrant. However, for now, given the low return from direct debt repayment, we are more focused on a combination of tuck in M and A, opportunistic share buybacks and building cash for future M and A transactions. During second quarter, we repurchased shares valued at $8,300,000 at an average price of $30.95 our first such purchase under the share buyback authorization we announced in March. Turning now to our 2017 full year guidance.
We have issued updated guidance with respect to our key full year financial targets, which also now include recently completed acquisitions. For net sales, we expect as reported growth of 7% to eight percent or 8% to 9% ex FX. This includes 6% to 7% contribution from acquisitions versus prior guidance of 2% to 3%, including the three deals done in Q2 for the remaining seven months of this year. The 1% FX impact is reduced from about 3% based on a composite forecast of our currency basket and including a notable improvement in the euro dollar expectation. Regarding our end markets, there's been a relatively little change in the last quarter in terms of key indicators, albeit with the typical uneven trends in individual markets and countries.
Underlying Refinish demand remains fairly steady globally, given accident rates and miles driven, and we continue to expect gradual market share gains over time from myriad sources. Global industrial end market demand also remained stable sequentially from the first to second quarter, and we continue to see solid organic growth in Q2. Our current expectation is for a similar pace of fairly subdued market demand for the balance of the year. Light Vehicle is on a path to show steady net sales this year, in spite of a slower than expected quarter in EMEA. Global automotive production year to date remains on track to meet forecast set up towards the start of the year, and our outlook assumes existing market forecasts remain intact for the balance of the year.
We do, however, expect any volume growth to be offset by reduced pricing, given concessions already made with certain customers. We noted that commercial vehicle has been on demand after a tough year last year in the North America heavy duty truck market. We are encouraged by upwardly revised forecast in this arena and expect sales growth for the year in commercial vehicle in the low to mid single digits. Our adjusted EBITDA outlook has been revised to indicate a tighter range of $940,000,000 to $970,000,000 versus $930,000,000 to $980,000,000 indicated before. The loss of profit contribution from the second quarter
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impacted our organic expectation versus our prior communication,
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The but the additional acquisition contribution offsets this impact in spite of these new deals not running at a full profit rate in early months. Certain qualifying transaction and transaction related expenses have been excluded from adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, and we expect to exclude smaller amounts of these same line items in the second half related to direct carve out costs, largely falling under IT and related consulting costs. We expect the recent acquisitions to operate at a full run rate starting in Q1 of twenty eighteen. As we had highlighted would be the case on our Q1 call, the increased overall raw material pricing began to impact results in the second quarter, led by Asia Pacific supply side considerations, but also coupled with some supply restrictions in North America and EMEA. The timing of supply resumption in these markets as well as the trajectory of oil prices can have a notable cost structure implication and makes forecasts more challenging.
For now, we can say that we expect raw material pressure in our reported results given time lags from market purchases to peak as we move towards the end of the year. We are working actively to offset this with end market price initiatives as we described. Regarding phasing of results for the balance of the year, we have factored in our updated raw material outlook as well as other drivers and now expect third quarter adjusted EBITDA to equal approximately 25 which then implies that the fourth quarter would represent a stronger than seasonally normal percentage of our full year profit, driven largely by contribution from new acquisitions and cost savings programs. For interest expense, we maintain our $115,000,000 guidance. This includes the beneficial impact of the term loan refinancing, offset by interest expense from the incremental debt drawdown to finance the recent acquisitions.
Our adjusted effective tax rate is still in the expected range between 2224%. For capital expenditures, we have lowered our spending guidance from 160,000,000 to $130,000,000 to ensure our free cash flow guidance remains intact. This includes a modest delay of certain growth oriented capital projects, which we believe will not impact our ability to meet our growth plans over the coming year and beyond. Our depreciation and amortization guidance increases from $335,000,000 to approximately $350,000,000 incorporating purchase accounting impacts associated with the recent acquisitions. As I mentioned, our free cash flow guidance remains intact at $440,000,000 to $480,000,000 reflecting the offsets of our organic guidance, acquisition contribution and lower projected CapEx.
This concludes our prepared remarks, and we'll be pleased to answer any questions. Operator, could you please open up the lines for Q and A?
Speaker 0
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. And the first questioner today is going be Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
Speaker 4
Thanks and good morning. Just want to get a sense, if I look at the underlying EBITDA guidance, I think what I heard you say was that the shortfall in the quarter your is more or less offset by the impact of the acquisitions in the back half. So on an underlying basis, your expectations for 3Q and 4Q haven't really changed because you're going to be able to implement some new actions. Is that a correct assessment of what you said?
Speaker 3
Yes, Vincent. That's an accurate assessment. Now there's been a little bit of give and take with incremental raw material inflation. And that incremental raw material inflation, we will attempt to offset with price increases, the TiO2 surcharge that we implemented and then also some additional cost savings initiatives. So that would be the one variable that had changed compared to the original guidance in terms of how you would think about Q3, Q4 phasing.
Speaker 4
Okay. And then just on North American Refinish, could you just give a little bit more detail on what's happening with the customers as they consolidate?
Speaker 3
Sure. So I characterized what we've seen starting to happen in the market and then which kind of punctuated this quarter is not so much to do with the end customer as it is to do with distribution. So we had a couple of our large national distributors that decided to lower inventory levels in Q2. This was based on making a decision in their companies to lower working capital and is not reflected with any fundamental change in the North America refinish market. That market remained strong with both miles driven and accident rates up year over year.
Another factor was that a few larger distributors have been acquiring midsize and smaller distributors. Now these larger distributors have slightly lower margins than the distributors that they've acquired and that results in some margin pressure for Axalta. We've been in the process of adjusting our discount structure and our go to market model to compensate for that factor. The other element that influenced in the quarter was that we had price increases, refinish price increases in two of our four regions that went into effect April 1, including North America. And that resulted in a large amount of pre buy in March, thereby negatively impacting demand in April and in the quarter.
And much of that mix was in lower margin products.
Speaker 4
Okay. Very helpful. Thanks very much guys.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Vincent.
Speaker 0
And the next questioner today is John Roberts with UBS. Please go ahead with your question. I apologize. Actually our next question is going to be from Bob Koortz with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Speaker 3
Hello, Bob. Can you hear us?
Speaker 1
This is John Roberts. Am I the one that's on?
Speaker 2
Go ahead, John.
Speaker 1
Thanks. Organic volume growth excluding FX and deals is 2% for the year. It was relatively flat for the first half, up in the first quarter and down in the second quarter. So do you need 4% organic volume in the second half for the full year to be at 2%?
Speaker 3
In the second half of the year, we're counting on a number of initiatives top line to arrive at our guidance. The first of course is the acquisition contribution from the deals that we've done plus the new deals that we've announced in both wood and Spencer Coatings, John. In addition to that, we are forecasting in most of our end markets, a slightly better volume performance in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year with the exception of light vehicle, where we have adjusted our forecasts there as per the updated IHS forecasts, which showed a little bit of deterioration in particular North America.
Speaker 1
And then in your revised EBITDA guidance, how much is the second half contribution from the deals?
Speaker 3
We haven't disclosed the contributions from the acquisitions. Okay.
Speaker 2
Thank you.
Speaker 0
And the next question today is going to come from Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Speaker 5
Pardon me. Thank you. This price action that you announced on August 1, you're referring to it as a TiO2 surcharge. Does calling it that versus a price increase imply that you would give it back if the eventual price of TiO2 comes back? Or does this give you the leverage to push through something faster and with a greater degree of likelihood by calling it a surcharge?
Speaker 3
Sure. Let me start and Charlie may have a point here to add as well on that. So the thinking behind that is our overall basket of raw materials in several categories has gone up as it has for many of our competitors. And as a result, we've had to increase prices. The category that has gone up multiple times higher than many other categories has been TiO2.
So because TiO2 has gone up so dramatically, what we wanted to do is to separate that TiO2 price increase and it's actually a separate line on our invoicing. So that as TiO2 comes down, we would expect to give that TiO2 back once market prices return to pre increase levels. But we were trying to provide a little bit more transparency to customers as well as a little bit of flexibility to adjust our pricing algorithm going forward without having to open up a whole lot of discussions and negotiations.
Speaker 2
Yes. This is Charlie. I think Robert is exactly right. Around the world, we've seen market price to TiO2 going from 50% to 70%. We felt like because there was already normal price increases out there this year in some of our powder and liquids accounts that we really wanted to be able to say, Look, customers, we don't really know where this is going because all these plants have been shut down in China and where supply is.
So that being the case, you know, we we need to share the pain. At the same time, look, if it comes back down, we don't wanna be arguing with you six months from now about it. So let's just be transparent and try to be as fair as we can as we push it to the marketplace. They know how much t o two they have in their products, so they can very well easy calculate that, okay, we're just trying to be fair here. But I do think t o two, our expectation anyway, is probably continued rise at least the next couple of quarters until some of this gets sorted out.
Speaker 5
Okay, thank you. I just wanted to continue with this discussion. You've been starting with the distribution channel for the refinish products. Do you negotiate pricing with the body shop on price or is this intermediary layer, this distributor channel, are they your customer and you negotiate price with them?
Speaker 3
Sterling, you wanna take that?
Speaker 2
Yeah. It it it really varies, but I
Speaker 0
I would say as a
Speaker 2
rule, larger larger body shop chains, for example, some of the MSOs that we've talked about on prior calls, In many cases, we we negotiate directly with them and the the distributor can be a third party in that agreement. In some cases, there may be multiple distributors who serve that that body shop chain. With smaller body shops, the ones, the twos, people like that, normally that price will be negotiated with the distributor as they're negotiating a bundle of prices to that body shop that may include sandpaper and tape and other products that we're not even involved in the chain. So it actually we like it that way. It's much easier for us, minimizes credit risk, minimize you know, the distributor, he has a lot more things to work on there.
It's also incentivized he's incentivized push price. We typically have transparency. We know what prices they're charging the body shops for different brands. So there's transparency back and forth and we have a right to audit all of that. But typically on a brand price increase, we will raise price at the distributor level and 80% to 90% of that is dealt with a distributor versus an individual body shop.
Speaker 5
That's helpful. Thank you.
Speaker 0
And the next questioner today is going be Alexey Yefremov with Nomura Instinet. Please go ahead.
Speaker 1
Good morning. Thank you. How can you adjust your distribution strategy in North America to counter this distributor consolidation? Is direct sale model becoming more attractive at this point? And also is it possible to support competition in the distribution market by maybe supporting second tier players there?
Speaker 3
Charlie, you want to take that one?
Speaker 2
Yes, sure. Thank you, Robert. So what we'll do, as Robert mentioned earlier in his prepared remarks, that in some cases we'll adjust the discount structure. In other cases, we may change some of the pricing on certain brands depending on the mix, or we may adjust some of the service fees that we do with those distributors. And so it's they understand it.
I mean, they understand that's coming. What the reason we're able to do that and we believe we'll continue to be able to do it by channel is is we've been doing this in Europe. We've seen some consolidation and this is this is I I think the thing that's really accelerated over the past years is we've seen in North America with the refinish market being a relatively mature market, although we've grown share quite a bit, you know, the market really grows at 1% to 2%. We're seeing some consolidation just like you saw in chemical distribution in the last five to ten years. But we'll use a variety of tools, and we have been to to adjust our margins, and we'll work with the distributor in some cases on service levels where as they consolidate, they don't need as many service points.
And but it does take a lot of collaborative work. We've we certainly always put the distributor on notice to say, look, we're not gonna we're not gonna tolerate a different margin structure over time and we believe we can be fair with that and they can too. The trick there is just making sure that ultimately as some of that ends up at the body shop level that everybody stays competitive. So in some cases, it may take a couple quarters to do that. With some distributors, it may take up to a year as contracts allow.
Speaker 1
Thank you. And just to follow-up on the same subject. I guess, is the price decline that you've experienced now and you have used sort of one and done or it's sort of it's higher in magnitude than what you would expect to experience in the future?
Speaker 3
Yes, think if you just looking at the economics, it's higher than expect what we to see in the future. We will be adjusting as we mentioned earlier some of our strategy and approach and our go to market model including our discount structure to compensate for that. So could there be a little bit of spillover into Q3 before that's fully implemented? There could be, but we wouldn't expect to see something of this magnitude absent, of course, any change in product mix during the course of the quarter.
Speaker 2
Yes. The only other comment I would make is this is for us anyway, some of these acquisitions they've done, while that's been a little bit of a short term pain, is not necessarily a bad deal for us over time. If you're going to have a distributor who wants to sell his business, we would just soon guide it into Friendly Hands. So actually some of these consolidations we've actually encouraged and encouraged these larger nationals to buy these smaller ones. That's not uncharacteristic of what we've done in Europe and in some other regions of the world where a distributor has come to us and said, Look, I really have succession issues or I don't want to stay in the business any longer and we're in a case where we would not have to fall into an unfriendly hand where you might end up losing business if they if they push to and shift over to another another supplier.
In Europe, we have actually done the opposite where we've actually encouraged some distributors. We've we've stepped in and helped them get bought and taken competitors' business as a result of that. We know what happens if a distributor falls in an unfriendly hand. Over time, you may lose share there and then you really are you've kind of got the worst of both worlds. What I would say is we don't view this as necessarily a bad deal over time, but we have had two distributors, Robert highlighted, that over the past year got very aggressive on buying some distributors and now we have to work through it with them.
I think a lot of that has worked through to the extent they go do three or four more big acquisitions over the next year or two, we could see we could kind of see this rolling on through. I don't it gets any deeper than this. And in fact, it should abate as we backwards with them on margins. But I do think that overall, the consolidation will continue and that affects not only us but some of the other players in the industry.
Speaker 1
Thank you very much.
Speaker 0
And the next questioner today is going be Mike Sison with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Speaker 6
Hey guys. When you think about your second half EBITDA growth expectations, If you take a look at the midpoint, you're going to need to grow EBITDA around 14% kind of mid teens. Can you help us understand how that breaks down between acquisitions and organic growth, cost savings etcetera, just sort give us that walk?
Speaker 3
So as you look at our EBITDA growth in the back half of the year, I think you hit on all the factors. I'd mentioned a couple more. So the first factor that's relevant of course is the contribution from the new acquisitions we've done. Obviously, the wood business is pretty substantial to the other acquisitions. The other area is Axalta Way.
We have stepped up our savings goals and accelerated some of the activities under Axalta Way in order to generate additional savings. And then thirdly, in the back half of the year, we would expect to see the benefit from the price increases that we have been implementing across the board as well as the impact of the TiO2 surcharge.
Speaker 6
Okay, great. And then if I thought about a similar look at in
Speaker 1
terms
Speaker 6
of sales growth for the second half, it does appear that your organic growth would have to return to that three, four low single digit to mid single digit range. Are you hitting that now in July? And do you expect that to be pretty linear as we head into the second half of the year?
Speaker 3
So, so far in July, we have early sales numbers for July and we'll be getting earnings here in the next day or two. But so far based upon what we're seeing top line in the month of July, we're seeing pretty good performance across the business and real standout in particular with the Wood acquisition, which continues to perform higher than our original deal model expectations. But I would say overall, the market is kind of in line our expectations.
Speaker 6
Great. Thank you.
Speaker 0
The next questioner today is going be David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Speaker 3
You. Good morning. Charlie, just on light vehicle pricing, can you discuss some of the dynamics pressuring pricing again? And how and when do we reverse this negative pricing trend in light vehicle?
Speaker 2
Yes. Obviously each OEM is different. I think we talked over the past year that clearly if oil prices stayed down, if raw materials prices stayed down for an extended period of time, which they have over the last couple of years, But ultimately, bids came up, as business rolled over, there would be adjustments in pricing. Certainly, that started latter part of last year and into this year. Now, a lot of those negotiations weren't actually done until as we got into this year and into this past quarter and we'll able to get a little more clarity with them.
So I I so I think that, you know, we always knew and everybody we'd always highlighted and I think some of our competitors did too that that With a lower raw material base, eventually, the OEMs would would wanna sit down and say, look, guys, we now have a little bit of a level reset here and that needs to work its way through. So I I think for the most part, we've seen that go through. And I don't I don't I don't think we really believe you're gonna see further degradation in pricing just because there's been a pretty good balance between at least what we've seen in the bids we've been involved in, the business we're engaged in. I think there's been a pretty fair sharing of some of those raw material benefits. Now as far as as far as, you know, margin coming back up, that really that really is a function of new product introduction over the next year, over the, you know, the next couple years as we work with we work all the time with OEMs on productivity.
We share those productivity gains. So I think that's a that's an OEM by OEM discussion that goes on. In some cases, we're you know, for example, new colors we're introducing right now, some new some new e coats, some new base coats, those have pricing models and pricing formulas that are different and work to recapture some of that. The OEM gets a benefit from it too, but it's less about raw material changes now and it's more about productivity and pricing going forward. So I think over the next year or two, you certainly see we don't believe there's a lot further degradation.
There's always that chance out there, obviously. But right now, we believe we're in a pretty good place and most people are just focused on productivity and OEMs are focused on inventories and model changeovers and things like that. So right now, I think it kind of played out like we thought it would. You never know exactly the timing on some of that when business comes up for bid. But I don't think we believe we'll see we don't believe we'll see significant further degradation frankly because there's been a pretty fair sharing of what went on on the raw material side.
Speaker 3
Just to put an additional point on that to complement what Charlie said, the price concessions have been relatively concentrated in a few OEMs. One in particular, given certain challenges in their business, we actually had a price down negotiation with one of our large LV customers and that reached a conclusion during April and we actually had a retroactive adjustment that was forced on us that went through all the way back to January 1. So you're seeing the degradation in price mix in Q2 at a slightly exacerbated level because of that. Very clear. And Rob you mentioned also on the acquisition some one time costs to integrate these transactions.
Could you quantify the costs that won't be repeated going forward from an M and A standpoint just for this year's integration? So the way to think about that is we've incurred approximately $10,000,000 to date in both transition and transaction fees. For normal size acquisitions typically we would absorb most of those costs, not all but most. In the case of a carve out, similar to what we did with DuPont, our approach to it is slightly different. So with the carve out, just given the magnitude of the cost and it's a different type of transaction, the Valspar Wood deal is indeed a carve out and we have significant TSAs in place and other support services with Sherwin.
Those will continue through approximately the end of the year in some cases. Hopefully, we'll be out sooner, but by the end of the year in some cases. And therefore, I think our expectation for this back half of the year is that those onetime costs that we would expect to add back could range anywhere between $5,000,000 And
Speaker 0
the next questioner today is going be Chris Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Given
Speaker 7
your expectation for global auto production of 1.9% and understanding your story is entirely contingent on North America, can you comment on your competitive positioning by region, just an update on that? And any key changes you anticipate over the next two or so years, particularly in China? Just any color on key business wins, regional penetration rates, etcetera, would be helpful. Thank you.
Speaker 3
Charlie, you want to
Speaker 2
start on that strategically and I can complement? Yes. Great. I'll make a couple of comments and then Robert, if you want to come back around on it. I think when we think about each region, clearly North America, we've actually outperformed the market a little bit here in the past year or two.
That's a result and and again, we've highlighted on several calls, there are several OEMs that we're focused on, but we believe we're underserved and we're growing our share with them. Albeit that, you know, that's new product introduction. It's working on productivity on existing accounts with them. So North America, we feel like with some of the new capacities come online in Mexico, some of the model changeovers and the models that are in favor right now, again more trucks, bigger SUVs, things like that, we believe we're well positioned to perform perform a little bit better than the market. Certainly we've seen that this past year.
As we get into Europe, I think Europe has been the one place we've been challenged probably more than some other competitors just because of our heavy weighting with one particular OEM there. We are growing with the other OEMs that are doing better in Europe. But again, you have long term customer relationships that you're happy sometimes and sometimes it's a little more challenging. We actually haven't lost share, but they clearly underperformed the market and we certainly saw that in the second quarter. I think in the European marketplace, us performing at market over the next year or two would be our expectation.
Again, this year we'll probably perform 1% or 2% less. As we look out to Latin America, again, Mexico we consider to be part of NAFTA, so I'll restrict my comments to South America. We have a good position in Brazil, a good position in Argentina. However, we believe that those markets we actually have seen Brazil turn, but we think that that will be a slow recovery. And we feel like we're with the right customers there, got the right growth, but we just don't think there's going be a lot of car growth there in the next couple of years unless Brazil surprises us all and does a little bit better.
In Asia Pacific for us, we don't do a lot in OEM in India, although our presence there will finish our new OEM plant in fourth quarter of this year and start it up next year. It will undergo commissioning throughout 2018. I think we're well positioned to grow with the India market, but today I would say we're underserved in India just because our our presence there is more refinish and industrial. But now really starting to grow with the OEMs like Tata and Honda and some people like that that are really starting to grow there. We have a good position in three wheelers and two wheelers but not OEM.
DuPont before us had never really focused on that market. And then last but not least, the largest car market in the world, China, very strong with the multinationals and underserved on the Chinese OEMs. And clearly, as you would guess, I think that that is part of our focus is in the plastic parts market and in the Chinese OEMs. We're really we're beginning to grow our share there. And if you notice, we announced a new facility in Nanjing.
We'll start construction on next year. That will help serve some of that market. As today, we have two OEM plants, one up at Chongqing, one in Jiaoning in Shanghai. We will need a little extra capacity into 2018 and 2019 as we serve some of the Chinese OEMs. We believe we're better than our market share on the multinationals.
We really believe the majority of the growth in the next couple of years in China will come from the Chinese OEMs. So that's kind of a quick walkabout of how we think in each region of the world. Well positioned, we believe in all the markets, but obviously the real growth over the next couple of years we think will still continue to be China, India and that's where we're most focused and underserved with a couple of players there.
Speaker 7
Great. And just a quick follow-up. On the M and A front, you've done obviously over 10 acquisitions over the last few years, mostly in industrial. Understanding it's pretty early on Valwood and Spencer, can you just comment on the cadence outside of integration costs, which I think Robert already hit on, of when you expect to realize that what you would expect to be the full profitability benefits ex integration costs? Just any way for the market to interpret on how these may roll into and then through 2018 would be particularly helpful?
Thank you.
Speaker 3
I'll take that Rob. So this year, we'll see the EBITDA of the acquisitions impacted by some of the integration costs. We should be through those in a material fashion by the 2018 and we would expect to see a full year run rate starting in the first quarter of twenty eighteen.
Speaker 2
I'll just make one comment on that because I think people may be struggling with that. You know, Robert mentioned a key point, which
Speaker 5
is the the the wood business,
Speaker 2
the reason we have the transition service agreements and expenses is it is a carve out. Very different than buying a company or buying a standalone division. While the while the business had its own two plants, its own dedicated sales team, and everything else, all the back office and all the support and actually, there's some tolling manufacturing that goes on, And we'll we'll be pulling all that out over the next two quarters and moving it all over. It's going it's actually going very well and I think everybody's really pleased with with it. I think as far as we can tell, the Sherwin organization is pleased.
We seem to be working really well with them on making it happen. But I think that it just it is a carve out. So all the back office, whether it's IT, whether it's finance, accounting, sales support, you know, all the stuff for the 400 and some odd employees in the business, you know, we're moving all that over. So, again, it's all going well, I think that those costs we had always contemplated that it would take a couple quarters for those transition service agreements to run off some of the one time. But I think it is people it's very different than doing a small bolt on acquisition where you basically assume everything on day one.
As Robert said, we normally just absorb those small acquisition expenses. You don't ever see them. But in this case here, it's a significant enough number that it's going to impact profitability the next two quarters and then pretty much is behind us by the time we get into Q1 twenty eighteen.
Speaker 0
Thank you. And our next questioner today is going to be Silke Quack with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Speaker 8
Good morning. How are you?
Speaker 3
Good morning Silke. Are you?
Speaker 8
So I'd like to belabor the TiO2 issue one more time, if I may. If you go a year back at the 2016 and where we are today, like maybe TiO2 prices really are up order of magnitude like 50%. And maybe your TiO2 costs overall, if you exclude industrial, maybe 10% of your costs. So are the surcharges like order of magnitude to recoup costs something like up 5%? And do you see that only once in one quarter?
Or do you see that ongoing of like twelve months period?
Speaker 3
Sophie, I think it depends on the direction of TiO2 of the TiO2 pricing. I mean, I think we explained earlier in the call kind of a little bit about the strategy about separating the two, the general price increase from the TiO2 surcharge. But as we move forward, if we were TiO2 to prices go up, then we would continue to increase prices most likely on the TiO2 surcharge line. So it will be a little bit variable depending upon what happens with TiO2.
Speaker 2
But I think you're correct. I think you're correct with some of our customers, it could be anywhere from a three to 5% increase. And some of those customers have asked, you know, well, why now? And what we said is, look, up till now, you know, we wanted to watch the market. We wanted to see what was going.
We've also absorbed those costs, but we just can't do that anymore. But I'm I'm like, Robert, if if t I o two goes up another 50%, well, I think we'd have to come back and say, guys, it's you know, surcharge has to move with it. But that's also why we think it's fair to customers because we're saying, look, the extent it comes back down, whenever it does, we'll hand it back to you. We're not trying to profit from this. But there's just no way you can you you know, as a company, we're gonna we can continue to just absorb it all.
And and I would guess our competitors may not be calling it a surcharge, but everyone and we're not that big of a t o two buyer, but I do think over time if there's going to be a structural change with all these Chinese plants down for good, I think people are going to have to reflect the reality at the current supply base.
Speaker 8
That's helpful. And if I can ask a last question on the wood coatings acquisition. So when we look at it, know, like, know, Valspa at periods of time had talked about, you know, the Wood Coatings business more specifically. Like, what we come up with is that probably on an annualized basis, once you get past the transition period, like your sales order of magnitude from that acquisition should be, I don't know, like $220,000,000 $230,000,000 annualized. And like your EBITDA margin should be approaching something like 20% or 21%.
Is that in the ballpark? Or do you think you'll do better than that or worse?
Speaker 3
So we haven't provided profit guidance for the business. I mean, I think your numbers for the top line of the business are accurate. I think what we would say is that we're very optimistic about the outlook of the business. It's a business that has been able to grow volume. It's a business that has been able to get price.
It's also a business that has done a lot of really good work managing their cost structure. We think that we can slightly improve the margins in that business just as we run that independently and the quality of the management team that came with that business is outstanding. So I think we're very optimistic about the overall direction of that business.
Speaker 8
Thanks very much and for squeezing me in so late in the call.
Speaker 0
And the next questioner is going to be Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Thanks.
Speaker 2
Good morning. I was just wondering, so the back half does imply quite a bit of an uplift in EBITDA. What are some of the factors that could potentially bring you to the lower end? Is it just not being able to get the price cost workout or maybe some other factors that you highlight? Thanks.
Speaker 3
Arun, I think there are elements that could certainly be incremental opportunities for us to our outlook. And then there are some elements that could be of course, there could be risks. On the risks, I think perhaps the biggest risk in terms of the full year outlook is simply what happens with the direction of builds in light vehicle. As I said, we've built in as of the July report of IHS, we've used that data to feed the specific plants and models that we're on. And that underpins our forecast for the full year.
So if we were to see a change in those IHS forecasts and or if we were to see any demand change on the models that we're on specifically, that would be one item. The other item would be the actual price increases and the TiO2 surcharge and the capture of that would be another element. And then the third element would be the direction of raw materials overall. Do we stay at the level that we're at now or do they go up? And if they go up, we would increase prices further.
But as you know, from the time they go up and until the time you actually implement the price increase, there is a lag. And that lag creates a little bit of leakage in the short term that's made up over the long term as the margins converge back to normal. The other area of course could be currency. We've assumed in our guidance going forward a more favorable rate on the euro as a U. S.
Dollar functional reporter. If that were to go the other way, that would be one element that could be a potential challenge for us.
Speaker 1
Thank you.
Speaker 0
The next questioner today is going be Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Speaker 9
Hi, this is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Thanks for taking the question. Hi, Dan. You mentioned how are you? You mentioned how well you're positioned in North America, particularly because of, I guess, your stronger presence in SUVs and larger light vehicles.
I was just wondering if the North American slowdown would have an outsized effect on you guys, whereas EMEA is still rebounding and Asia is doing okay, but North America is really starting to accelerate the downturn. Would that negatively impact you more so, I guess, than others?
Speaker 2
Yes, this is Charlie. I think when you look at our business, and I think we've highlighted this on some of the calls previously is our OEM business is is spread pretty evenly around the world. We like to say kind of a third, a third, a third. So I don't I don't think that the the North America piece would would, you know, if it accelerates to another 5% down or something like that, I don't think it would disproportionately hurt us versus anyone else or versus other part of the world.
Speaker 9
Okay. Thank you very much.
Speaker 3
Yes. I think the other element to Charlie's point is if you look at where the types of vehicles on which we're positioned in the SUV and the truck market much more strongly than we are in the passenger vehicle market. And as a result of that, we've been able to outperform the relative market index given that more favorable And
Speaker 2
certainly what we've seen coming through this first half of the year, if you remember even last year when we gave our annual guidance, we contemplated that we thought that The US market or the North American market really would probably on bills would drop 5% to 7%. So I think what we see coming through this first, I mean, you never know exactly who's gonna do what, But I do think so far the market in North America has behaved about what what we we thought it would this year. You know, again, I'm I think we don't have a better day than anybody else in the second half. But I do think OEMs as we talk with if you remember, we deal with a lot of the big dealership groups in The US. So we get a pretty good view from the dealers themselves what they're seeing with consumer behavior.
And so far the market, in recent gesture, a couple of them I talked to has behaved exactly like we thought it would this year. They seem to be handling inventory pretty well. They seem to be handling, you know, the used car sales, which is really what they really watch. And so far, at least through July, I think the market has behaved about like most of us thought it would. Now could that accelerate, I think, our question, could the model shift on what the consumer likes or not likes?
I guess it's anybody's guess, we just have to watch that. But so far, it's been about what we thought it would do this
Speaker 9
And then just quickly, the inventory issues that or drawdowns you talked about before, have they lingered into the third quarter? Is that kind of pretty much done? I don't know if you've answered that or not.
Speaker 3
Charlie?
Speaker 2
Robert, you want to comment on? I'm happy to. No, I think right now, I think that pretty much, at least for the acquisitions that a couple of these gentlemen have done, I think a lot of that has worked its way through the system. And, you know, we don't anticipate any other big step downs. Know, a lot of this will be around pre buy and things like that.
So we could still get quarter to quarter fluctuation as as a lot of you have followed the company for a long time. You see it every once in a while in a quarter because of a pre buy or because of a brand shift on somebody's shelves, they may move something around. The issue for us is a couple of these national distributors are big enough with us if they can move a quarter. Again, they're multiline distributors. So in many cases, it may not even have anything to do with us.
It may be some other pre buy they've done with another supplier. Could be actually may not even be paint related as they move their working capital around. So I think to a large majority, most of this has worked its way through. But we do always we do see these perturbations from time to time when it actually has nothing to do with us. We always just wanna make sure that they're never the distributors themselves because they do run their own businesses.
They're extension of us, but they're independent businessmen. We do try to make sure they never put us in a situation where they could stock out and or hurt any of the end customers that we all care about. But I but I think to a large extent, lot that's worked through.
Speaker 9
And
Speaker 0
the next questioner today is going to be Don Carson with Susquehanna Financial. Please go ahead.
Speaker 2
Where are we overall in the raw material inflation cycle? And what do you see as the the cadence of margin pressure as you attempt to raise prices? Was Q2 the greatest pressure? Do you expect that or do you expect that to increase in the second half? And as you compare this inflation cycle to maybe and I know some of you weren't there, but say 2011, 2012, is your ability to raise prices greater or lesser than it's been historically?
Speaker 3
Yes, I'll start on that one. In terms of the what we're seeing actually flow through our financials and then looking at the prices at which We've seen material raw material inflation from a purchasing perspective starting in Asia as back as far back as the beginning of the first quarter. And then we've seen that gradually move to other regions. So I think we've seen some headwind from raw materials in Q2. Given the lag effect, I expect that we would see additional raw material inflation in Q3 and potentially peaking in the early part of Q4 based on our forecasts and then leveling off given the prices that we currently see in the market.
Of course, can change if prices move up or prices move down. And I think Axalta as well as other competitors in the industry have increasing prices commensurate with that raw material move. There were back in the time period that you referenced according to some of the historical data that we've seen very sizable price increases to compensate for raw material moves. So I don't think it's something that's new to the industry or our customer base. It's just something that we have to go out and execute.
Speaker 2
So with the lag in pricing, you'd expect the gross margin pressure then to sort of peak when raws peak in Q4?
Speaker 3
Yes. Think it would be after the peak in the raws. I don't think we see the raw materials peaking in Q4. I think we see the raw material prices themselves potentially peaking in Q3, but because of the lag effect, the flow through continuing to go through and perhaps peak in Q4.
Speaker 0
Okay, great. Thank you. And the next question is going be Panjabi with Robert W. Baird. Please go ahead.
Speaker 10
Hi, good morning. This is actually Matt Krueger sitting in for Ghansham. Just wanted to ask, can you describe what level of acceptance you guys have seen in terms of your pricing asset pricing actions across your various markets? And then how much longer do you expect pricing pressures to persist in the auto related markets?
Speaker 3
Charlie?
Speaker 2
Okay. I'll take that Yes. Sorry, was on mute there. So it's very different in every segment. I think when we think about the refinish marketplace, when you look at the price pressures there, it's really those are really more it's much more of a fragmented standardized market.
And I would say we're in our cadence of normal routine price increases during the year. So again, there's some anomalies when you talk about this distribution channel mix that don't really have anything to do with just normal pricing pricing actions. In the industrial marketplaces, you would really just started raising prices over the past quarter from the standpoint of from a raw material perspective. So I think it's still too early to see as we're rolling through that. I think overall, as we've always highlighted, these kind of things take a quarter or two as contracts allow as other as other agreements work through.
But I think, you know, we will the coatings industry as a rule, we get the price. It just takes a quarter or two in some cases to be able to move that to the marketplace, explain it to customers, and confirm that it's really not just a blip on the screen that is truly something that deserves a pricing discussion. I think on the OEM side of the business, those discussions go over time. They're always good know, they're always linked to multiyear agreements on solvents and things like that. In many cases, we have formulas in place.
As we've highlighted this past year, a lot of the raw material price increases are not related to the price of oil or gas. There are other structural changes in specialty chems or in TiO2 pigments, things like that. So those price increases are always ongoing and I think that any kind of big movements just take time which can take a year or two as you work through contracts with them. I don't know, Robert, did you want to add to that?
Speaker 3
Yes. I think the only nuance there and I think the question was the previous question as well about is there anything different now from before. I mean, I think the one difference now is that what we're seeing in terms of raw material pressures, it's not really driven as much by the price of oil and by overall demand. This is really a supply driven squeeze on prices. And I think getting some customers to fully understand that compared to the paradigm that they might have seen before.
That takes a little bit more work. But I think at the end of the day, they understand it. And as Charlie said, we have launched our price increases across our end markets over the last quarter.
Speaker 10
Okay. That's helpful. And then given that you called out solid mid single digit growth in the industrial markets on an organic basis, can you provide some added detail on what specific end markets drove this growth? If it's sustainable moving forward? And then what are your plans on kind of improving profitability and productivity in North America and Europe where you called out a little bit of weakness?
Speaker 3
So on the industrial business, just to highlight a couple of areas that are performing well and maybe one area that's not. I think on the wood coatings has performed very well for us in the second quarter granted it's only one month, but we have the July data now as well and they had another gangbuster month. And if we look at coil, coil also continues to perform quite well for us and we're starting the process of rolling that technology out in other parts of the world as well. So I think we're excited about the steps we've made in oil. The most challenged segment within industrial has been powder due to the rapid rise in key raw materials for that product line and increasing price in a market that can be extremely competitive and extremely competitive locally.
So as we've gone through and taken a hard look at that business, where we've really focused is looking at individual product and individual customer profitability. So what we've really been doing is focusing on what are products or customers that are below acceptable margin thresholds. Is our cost structure appropriate? And if it is, adjusting prices upwards to make sure that we're at the right level. In terms of actual underlying organic growth, again, oil and gas, you see some pressure functional pipe and valve, of course, you see some pressure, but there are other segments within industrial where there's actually pretty decent growth.
So I think overall, it's there's some pros and there's some cons in the business. Great. Thank you.
Speaker 0
And the next questioner today is going to be P. J. Juvekar with Citi. Please go ahead. Mr.
Juvekar, your line is open for questions. The next questioner today will be Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Speaker 11
Yes, thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. A question on capital deployment. How would you compare and contrast relative opportunities for ongoing M and A in the back half of the year given your view of the pipeline as compared to prospects to accelerate repurchases against the $675,000,000 authorization you unveiled back in March?
Speaker 3
So obviously, leverage ratio went up during the quarter, but that was predominantly driven by the fact that we only had one month's worth of EBITDA from the new acquisitions there. So if you look at it on a more full year basis and where we expect to be by the end of the year, of course, leverage ratio will come down. Plus, when you look at the natural cash generation ability the organic business, we will still continue to generate significant cash flow. So I think a reasonable expectation there is we're very focused on integrating the acquisitions that we have done, but we remain active in terms of looking at attractive bolt on and attractive transformative M and A transactions and we'll take advantage of those as they come up. In terms of the use of excess cash beyond that, given the fact that our debt is at a weighted average cost of less than 3.5%, debt repayment isn't the most attractive option right now.
Investing in the business through M and A is and after that share repurchase. So I think we will continue on the share repurchase side to be opportunistic as we go through the quarter.
Speaker 11
Very clear. I appreciate the comments.
Speaker 0
This will conclude the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Charles Sarver for his closing remarks.
Speaker 2
All right. Thank you. And I'll be brief. I know we ran over a little bit here today trying to accommodate everybody's questions. And again, very busy quarter for us.
A lot of great things going on from the acquisitions, from some of the new facilities that we brought online that we've been working for a while, some of our new customer capabilities in our new tech centers both in Asia Pacific and in our refinish training centers around the world. Very pleased. Our markets remain solid, our end markets that we talked about today. I think the challenges for us, not inconsistent with industry right now, are dealing with some of these rising raw material prices that we've talked about and then relatively low organic growth in coatings. We're 2% as I think someone highlighted earlier.
That's what we had planned. That's about what we thought we would be coming through the first half of the year. We do see good solid markets, but clearly organic growth is a little bit challenged and you have to work a little harder to go get it. So I think we're focused on that, continue to be focused on the cost initiative side. We've reduced capital spending.
Our delayed is a little bit here to manage our free cash flow, which is ultimately what we're focused on in this company. I think we've got all the right metrics in front of us. I think we've got a good team, happy with the acquisitions we've done and just focused on capturing our fair share of the organic growth. So again, I'll wrap up. Thanks, everybody.
We went a little bit long today, but I think with activities all in the quarter, it was probably warranted. And appreciate all your continued support in the company. Thank you, everyone.
Speaker 0
And the conference has now concluded. Thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Speaker 2
Good job. Thanks for all the help. Hey, Hey, Chris.
Speaker 3
Yeah. Charlie.
Speaker 2
So are you guys gonna hang up now, and then we'll dial in here in about thirty minutes on our first one on one?
Speaker 1
Correct. Yeah. We'll, we'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 2
Okay.
Speaker 0
Thanks. Bye.
Speaker 2
Thanks,