BC
BOEING CO (BA)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 revenue rose 35% year over year to $22.7B; GAAP diluted EPS was ($0.92) and core loss per share was ($1.24). Operating cash flow was $0.23B and free cash flow was ($0.20)B .
- Results beat Wall Street on revenue and slightly on EPS: revenue $22.75B vs $21.61B consensus; core EPS ($1.24) vs ($1.27) consensus; strength came from higher deliveries and mix, including 13 777 deliveries (+$700M FCF benefit in Q2) * [functions.GetEstimates]* .
- Commercial margins improved as 737 production reached 38 per month and 787 advanced to 7 per month; BDS turned to positive operating margin (1.7%) on stabilizing performance; BGS delivered 19.9% margins .
- Management guided to Q3 free cash flow usage similar to Q2 (before a potential $700M DOJ payment), and positive Q4 free cash flow; full-year 2025 free cash flow around ($3B) with positive exit momentum .
- Potential catalysts: FAA authorization to lift 737 above 38/month later in 2025; continued widebody delivery mix; tariff relief deals (“zero for zero”) improving input costs and demand environment .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Sequential operational stabilization: 150 commercial deliveries, 737 at 38/month, 787 at 7/month; “we delivered higher quality airplanes” and KPIs “all green” on 787 after rate increase .
- BDS margin inflection: revenue $6.6B, operating margin 1.7% vs (15.2%) a year ago; progress on MQ‑25 ground testing and T‑7A milestones .
- Services strength: BGS revenue $5.3B (+8% y/y), operating margin 19.9% with a Gatwick MRO sale and P‑8A training contract win; “BGS remains a terrific long‑term franchise” .
What Went Wrong
- Unallocated charge of $445M tied to May 2025 DOJ non‑prosecution agreement weighed on results; effective tax rate was (9.1%) in Q2 .
- BCA still negative margins: operating margin (5.1)%, with continued rework and certification delays pushing 737‑7/‑10 certification into 2026; “engineering designs have not yielded” for engine anti‑ice solution .
- Free cash usage remains a headwind; Q2 FCF was ($0.20)B, and Q3 expected similar usage before any $700M DOJ payment, keeping full‑year 2025 in cash usage despite improving deliveries .
Financial Results
Segment breakdown
KPIs and balance
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our fundamental changes to strengthen safety and quality are producing improved results as we stabilize our operations and deliver higher quality airplanes…” — Kelly Ortberg, CEO .
- “Core loss per share of $1.24 was a significant improvement… Free cash flow was a usage of $200 million… better than expectations… with 13 777 deliveries driving ~$700 million positive free cash flow.” — Brian West, CFO .
- “On 737… achieved a rate of 38 airplanes per month… expect to be in a position to request approval from the FAA… to increase to 42.” — Kelly Ortberg .
- “Work on [737‑7/‑10] solution is taking longer… now expecting certification in 2026.” — Kelly Ortberg .
- “We were encouraged by certain bilateral trade deals… as a top U.S. exporter, free trade policy across commercial aerospace continues to be very important.” — Brian West .
- “Zero for zero” tariff discussions (Japan, EU/Italy) could reduce input costs and support demand. — Kelly Ortberg .
Q&A Highlights
- Free cash flow outlook: Q3 usage similar to Q2 before potential $700M DOJ payment; Q4 positive; FY ~($3B). Strong dependence on delivery momentum and trade environment .
- Delivery and rate trajectory: 737 poised to exceed ~400 deliveries in 2025, 787 at the high end of 70–80; FAA approval needed to lift 737 above 38/month; rate increases in five-per-month steps no earlier than six months apart .
- Certification delays: 737‑7/‑10 engine anti‑ice solution requires design changes; certification now 2026; 777X testing progressing toward 2026 EIS .
- Defense execution: Active management and MOAs with USAF to reduce concurrency and de‑risk T‑7; BDS path back to high single‑digit margins with fixed‑price development programs targeted to neutral profit/cash longer term .
- Tariffs/trade: Bilateral agreements improve input cost outlook and demand; caution on potential retaliatory tariffs with China and USMCA revisit .
Estimates Context
How results compared to Wall Street consensus (S&P Global):
- Q2 2025: Revenue beat by ~$1.14B; EPS modest beat by ~$0.03; delivery volume and widebody mix the primary drivers *.
- Q1 2025: EPS beat significantly vs consensus; revenue slightly missed; operational improvement and mix helped EPS *.
- Q4 2024: Revenue in line; EPS missed due to IAM work stoppage and defense charges *.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Delivery-driven beat: Strong Q2 revenue and slightly better EPS, with widebody deliveries adding ~$700M FCF benefit; watch 777 and 787 mix for cash tailwinds .
- Rate approvals as near-term catalyst: FAA go‑ahead above 38/month on 737 and stable 787 at 7/month underpin margin recovery and cash conversion in H2 2025 and into 2026 .
- Certification risk persists: 737‑7/‑10 pushed to 2026; monitor design resolution on engine anti‑ice and its modest margin consequences; 777X testing on track for 2026 EIS .
- Defense margin trajectory improving: Positive BDS margin in Q2; continued active program management (T‑7, MQ‑25) supports path to high single‑digit margins medium term .
- Cash outlook: Expect Q3 FCF usage similar to Q2 (before potential $700M DOJ payment), Q4 positive, and FY ~($3B) usage with positive exit momentum; H2 performance is key for sentiment .
- Tariff backdrop turning favorable: “Zero for zero” deals reduce input costs and support demand; remain vigilant on China retaliatory risk and USMCA stability .
- Execution focus: Continued reduction of rework, KPIs for stability, and portfolio pruning signal discipline; BGS continues to provide earnings ballast at ~20% margins .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
- Unallocated charge: $445M linked to DOJ non‑prosecution agreement impacted Q2 earnings .
- Backlog: $618.5B total company backlog with >5,900 BCA airplanes; BCA backlog $522.2B .
- Cash & debt: $23.0B cash/investments; $53.3B consolidated debt; $10B undrawn revolvers .