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BALL Corp (BALL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered topline and earnings growth: net sales $3.10B (+7.7% YoY), comparable diluted EPS $0.76 (+12% YoY) and GAAP diluted EPS $0.63; global shipments +2.6% YoY .
  • Results beat Street: EPS $0.76 vs $0.70 consensus, revenue $3.10B vs $2.90B, EBITDA ~$455M vs ~$437M; driven by volume/mix and disciplined cost control, with mild tariff-related uncertainty managed proactively ; estimates marked with S&P Global data*.
  • Guidance effectively raised vs Q4 message: management now targets 11–14% comparable EPS growth in 2025, reiterates strong free cash flow, repurchases ≥$1.3B, CapEx ~$600M; FY interest expense ~$280M, effective tax rate slightly >22% .
  • Strategic actions/catalysts: €850M 4.25% senior notes due 2032, $250M ASR, $0.20 dividend; CFO transition announced with reaffirmed outlook .
  • Narrative positives: EMEA volumes strong (mid-single-digit), South America recovery, North America non-alcoholic/energy momentum; watch mass beer softness and evolving tariffs; mix and operational efficiency underpin margins .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Comparable EPS rose 12% YoY to $0.76 on higher volumes, lower interest expense, and cost actions .
    • Segment strength: EMEA operating earnings +13% YoY on higher shipments and price/mix; South America +25% YoY on broad-based volume growth .
    • Management execution and confidence: “on track to return at least $1.5B to shareholders in 2025” and “plans of 11–14% comparable diluted EPS growth in 2025” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Gross and EBIT margins compressed sequentially vs late 2024 as price/mix and ramp effects weighed: Q1 gross margin ~19.5%, EBIT margin ~9.8% (vs Q4 2024 ~20.5% and ~10.8%)*.
    • North America beer remains soft; promotional activity expected to recover volumes in peak season; margin expansion in NCA not expected near term .
    • Tariff uncertainty persists (Section 232 and potential China impacts), though direct can-level impact per unit is “negligible”; management monitoring consumer health and geopolitical dynamics .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.082 $2.880 $3.097
Net Earnings attributable to BALL ($USD Millions)$197 $(32) $179
GAAP Diluted EPS (Total) ($)$0.65 $(0.11) $0.63
Diluted EPS - Continuing Ops ($)$0.63 $(0.01) $0.64
Comparable Diluted EPS ($)$0.91 $0.84 $0.76
EBITDA ($USD Millions)515*462*455*
Gross Profit Margin %21.32%*20.52%*19.50%*
EBIT Margin %11.84%*10.80%*9.85%*
  • Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown – Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024:

SegmentSales Q1 2024 ($MM)Sales Q1 2025 ($MM)Comparable Op. Earnings Q1 2024 ($MM)Comparable Op. Earnings Q1 2025 ($MM)
Beverage Packaging, NCA$1,403 $1,463 $192 $195
Beverage Packaging, EMEA$810 $903 $85 $96
Beverage Packaging, South America$482 $544 $55 $69
Other$179 $187 (72) (15)
Total$2,874 $3,097

Consensus vs actual – Q1 2025:

MetricConsensusActual
EPS ($)0.70*0.76
Revenue ($MM)2,895*3,097
EBITDA ($MM)437*455*
  • Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and balance sheet (Q1 2025):

KPIQ1 2025
Comparable Operating Earnings ($MM)$345
Comparable EBITDA ($MM)$462
Interest Expense ($MM)$70
Net Debt ($MM)$6,268
Interest Coverage (x)7.21x
Leverage (Net Debt/Comparable EBITDA) (x)3.22x
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($MM)$449

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Comparable diluted EPS growthFY 2025“Exceed 10%” (Feb Q4 release) 11–14% Raised
Share repurchasesFY 2025Not quantified in Q4 release≥$1.3B; returned $612M in Q1 Set/affirmed
CapExFY 2025Not specified~$600M (slightly below D&A) Set
Net Debt / EBITDAFY 2025 YENot specified~2.75x expected at YE Set
Interest expenseFY 2025Not specified~$280M Set
Effective tax rate (comparable)FY 2025Not specifiedSlightly >22% Set
DividendQ2 2025—$0.20 per share payable Jun 16 Announced
FinancingMay 2025—€850M 4.25% notes due 2032 New
Capital returnJun 2025—$250M ASR New
CFOJun 2025—CFO stepping down; interim CFO appointed; outlook reaffirmed Management change

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tariffs/macroFocus on operational excellence; Argentina volatility; monitoring policy shifts Section 232 impact negligible per can; monitoring China-related demand; confident outlook despite uncertainty Managed risks; vigilance continues
North America mix & promotionsNCA volumes down in Q4; cost-out initiatives to improve performance Non-alcoholic/energy strong; mass beer soft; expect more aggressive peak-season pricing; margin expansion not expected Improving volumes via mix/promotion
EMEA capacity & growthEMEA volumes up mid-single digit; sustainability tailwinds Strong volumes; getting tight; incremental investments within CapEx envelope Tightening supply; disciplined adds
South America recoveryQ3 SA impacted by Argentina; multi-year packaging shift Broad-based volume strength; Brazil stable; Argentina recovering Recovery unfolding
Supply chain/operationsEfficiency initiatives; leaner operating model Ball Business System rollout (~2/3 complete); record production weeks; efficiency priority Ongoing operational gains
Financing/liquidityDeleveraging post aerospace sale €850M notes; ASR; interest coverage 7.21x; leverage 3.22x Balanced funding, shareholder returns
Management changes—CFO transition; interim CFO named; outlook reaffirmed Stable guidance despite change

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Building on our strong start to the year… plans of 11–14% comparable diluted earnings per share growth in 2025… advancing sustainable aluminum packaging… return meaningful value to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends” .
  • CFO: “On track to return at least $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025… free cash flow generation underscores the resilience of our business model” .
  • CEO (call): Emphasized defensiveness of aluminum packaging, 2–3% global volume growth expectation, strong EMEA, SA momentum, and NCA resilience .
  • Operational execution: Ball Business System rollout delivering safety/quality improvements and record production weeks; margin maintenance focus in NCA .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs and demand: Section 232 meaningful per-can impact “negligible”; watching China-related demand and Hispanic category dynamics; no change in customer forecasts to date .
  • NCA promotions and mix: Energy category innovation and pricing constructive; expectation for beer promotions in peak season to support volumes; specialty and standard 12oz mix adjustments for affordability .
  • Capacity and Florida Can acquisition: Asset integrated and ready; needed for tight can sizes in peak season; system tightened with targeted adds (Northwest facility) .
  • Margins sustainability: NCA margins at high-water mark; aim to maintain via efficiency partnering with CPGs on affordability .
  • EMEA tightness: Incremental investments contemplated; pricing not the main lever given strong gross profit; focus on efficiency .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beats: EPS $0.76 vs $0.70 consensus; revenue $3.10B vs $2.90B; EBITDA ~$455M vs ~$437M; likely upward revisions for FY EPS and segment earnings where volume momentum persists*.

  • Street may recalibrate assumptions for EMEA volume/mix and NCA non-alcoholic/energy resilience; watch offsetting factors from beer softness and tariff-driven macro sensitivity .

  • Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality beat with broad-based volume/mix gains and cost discipline; EMEA and South America are key growth vectors; NCA stable ex beer .
  • Guidance now 11–14% comparable EPS growth for 2025; catalysts include €850M notes, $250M ASR, continued buybacks, and $0.20 dividend .
  • Operational execution (Ball Business System) supports margin maintenance despite affordability push; upside from peak-season promotions and specialty mix optimization .
  • Risk monitor: tariff evolution (China), consumer health in U.S., beer category softness; near-term volatility manageable per management .
  • Positioning: Defensive packaging exposure with improving leverage (~3.22x) and strong interest coverage (7.21x); expect continued cash returns and disciplined capital allocation .
  • Trading implications: Beat plus raised growth range, capital return actions, and strong EMEA/South America trajectory are supportive; watch headlines on tariffs/CFO transition (outlook reaffirmed) for volatility .
  • Medium-term: Substrate shift to aluminum and efficiency initiatives underpin multi-year growth; incremental European capacity and targeted U.S. footprint optimization provide optionality .