Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria - Q4 2023

Transcript

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Good morning. Welcome, and thank you for joining BBVA's Q4 earnings conference call. With us today are Onur Genç, our CEO, and Luisa Gómez Bravo, the group's CFO. After the speakers' remarks on the group's results and our expectations for 2024, we will open a live Q&A session. Now, I turn the call over to Onur.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you, Patricia. Good morning to everyone. I will start... I'll jump into it right away, starting with page number three, by highlighting the acceleration of our profitable growth strategy in the year, as the title says. First, I want to highlight that the best way that we can contribute to our stakeholders and the society in general is through our activity of lending, our activity of banking business, and through growing our business. In that sense, we have increased our loan portfolio by 7.6% this year, and we have acquired more than 11 million new customers. Second, from the top, the financial results that we see today are the outcome of the significant progress in the execution of our strategy.

In 2023, 79%, obviously a record, of our unit sales were done digitally, and we also continue at the frontline of the industry in sustainability. In 2023, we channeled EUR 70 billion in sustainable business, again, an all-time high. Third, we have achieved the highest annual net attributable profit ever, over EUR 8 billion, an increase of 22% versus 2022, which translates into a 27% increase in earnings per share. Fourth, we continue delivering on our commitment to value creation for our shareholders, with return on tangible equity at 17% and an exceptional 20.2% increase of tangible book value per share, plus dividends.

All of this is allowing us to significantly increase distributions to our shareholders for a total amount of EUR 4 billion, which is equivalent to EUR 0.68 per share, increasing payout, while at the same time, our CET1 ratio remains comfortably above our target. These highlights are what I would be expanding upon in the coming pages, but just to reiterate, the common theme, in my view, of all the numbers in this page, is that we continue growing, and we are growing in a profitable way. Moving to slide number four, our positive impact on society. We continue to help our customers achieve their life and financial goals. We have increased our loan book, as I mentioned, by 7.6% in the last year.

It's a very high-level number at the top, but this implies, for example, that during 2023, we have helped more than 140,000 families buy their homes. We have supported more than 550,000 SMEs, self-employed individuals, and around 70,000 larger corporates in financing their growth, financing their business. And in terms of transactionality, we have more than 20 million payrolls collected by our clients on a monthly basis. As we grow our activity, we promote employment, we promote investment, and we promote welfare in the society. Moving to page number 5, new customer acquisition, one of our important pages. And as we keep reiterating, expanding our customer base will allow us to continue growing our business in a healthy way, in a profitable and healthy way.

With 11 million gross new active clients in 2023, we have grown to more than 71 million active clients in 2023. Even more impressive is the share of those customers acquired through digital channels, which increased to a new record of 65% in 2023. I do think that this is our key difference. The way that we acquire customers through digital channels is our key difference versus most of our competitors out there. On slide number six, our leadership in digital, it has proven to be essential and differential in serving our customer base as well. On the left-hand side of the slide, we have surpassed 52 million mobile customers, a figure more than twice of that in 2018, and a record-high 74% penetration rate.

At the same time, our digital sales, it has reached 79% in terms of units and 63% in terms of value. Again, one of the best, if not the best, in our industry. This leadership in digital, it has also translated into a higher client satisfaction. As you can see in the right-hand side of the slide, the Net Promoter Score, it continues improving in the group with clear leadership positions across the main countries of our footprint. Slide number seven, a message that again defines 2023: we continue growing, outperforming our peers. Our competitive advantages, like our digital strategy and our globality, it has supported our loan growth, as you see on this page. And as you see in the bubbled numbers, in every single country, we have gained market share in total loans.

And if you observe the trends over the last few years, because you have five years in this chart, we are gaining market share, especially in those highly profitable segments that we wanted to grow. I mean, consumer credit cards and businesses, private businesses across our footprint. Turning to slide number eight, sustainability. As I said many times in the past, it's an incredible... Sustainability is an incredible business opportunity, and we are trendsetters in this area. As you can see in this page, we accelerated in mobilizing sustainable business volumes across segments, and we set a new record with more than EUR 70 billion channeled in 2023, and a total of EUR 206 billion since 2018.

We maintain the top-ranked European bank position in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index as well for the fourth year in a row now. Moving to slide number 9, as you can see on the left-hand side of the page, we have established clear portfolio alignment targets in key CO2-intensive industries for 2030.... so that, so that we get to net zero by 2050. This last quarter, we have included targets in two more sectors in the list, aviation and shipping, as you can see. During 2023, we have started tracking our performance against these targets and included the degree of portfolio alignment as part of the compensation of those employees who have long-term variable remuneration.

As you can see in the chart on the right hand, starting from 2022, the baseline, we have already managed to reduce the emissions in the top six sectors by 19%. Slide 10. From this slide on, I'm going to walk you through the financials. First, net attributable profit, as I mentioned, it set a new record. In the bars at the center of the slide, you can see the upward evolution of our annual results. Wonderful trend in my view. 2023 has been an outstanding year, with profits at EUR 8 billion 19 million, 22% higher than the EUR 6.6 billion recurrent net profit of 2022, which was already an exceptional figure.

These results bring our earnings per share up to EUR 1.32, an increase of 27% year-over-year, higher than the growth of the net attributable profit, thanks to the share buyback programs that we have been executing. Moving to slide 11, our tangible book value per share plus dividends. It continues to show an outstanding evolution. Beyond the excellent figure of 20.2% year-over-year growth in tangible book value per share plus dividends, we wanted to remark that in the last five years, our tangible book value per share plus dividends increased by 68%, despite COVID. Despite COVID, 68%. This growth, in my view, is, is one of the most impressive, figures in this presentation.

Regarding profitability, we continue to improve our excellent profitability metrics, reaching 17% in ROTE and 16.2% in return on equity. Moving to slide 12, the best measure of our performance is the one where we compare ourselves to competitors obviously, this is how we live with it in the bank. We breathe this competitive success. In all the key financial metrics, we have done better than our competitors. One more year, we remain clearly one of the most value-creating, most profitable, and most efficient European banks out there. Moving to slide 13, this is a summary of the pages to follow, where I will talk to you about the P&L. I will talk to you about revenue growth, costs, asset quality, and capital. Let me jump into it on page 14.

On P&L, I would like to highlight the excellent evolution of gross and operating income, growing 19% and 20% in current EUR, respectively. Slide number 15, the P&L for Q4. I will not stop long here, as the strong depreciation of the Argentinean peso in December has affected the comparisons for the quarter in both current and constant EUR. However, all in all, in Q4, despite the negative seasonality of Q4, marked by the annual Deposit Guarantee Scheme contributions, as you know, especially in Spain, we have reported once again, at the bottom line, a net attributable profit above the EUR 2 billion mark in current EUR. Slide number 16, let me focus a bit more on the revenue growth in our two core markets of Spain and Mexico.

On the left-hand side of the slide, you can see the strong loan growth in the most profitable segments in both countries, especially in Mexico. In the center of the slide, you can see the evolution of customer spreads. In the case of Spain, the improvement continued in the last quarter of the year, with spread reaching 342. For Mexico, customer spread is at 1,167, a solid year-over-year increase, although reducing versus last quarter, explained by two reasons, two very straightforward reasons. First, lower yields on loans due to some seasonality with the impact of the holiday period campaigns at the end of the year, especially obviously in credit cards. And second, switching from expensive wholesale funding, expensive market funding, to grow volumes in deposits from customers. This is financially neutral on NIM, but it obviously affects the customer spread.

The result of all, you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, the core revenue growth year over year in both countries, 32% growth in Spain and 12% growth in Mexico in constant, and also the growth on a quarterly basis in both countries. In core revenues, some of you have been asking, about the peak. When are we going to reach the peak? As we have been commenting in the past, and as this page also shows, due to the continued spread improvement in Spain and the strong volume growth in Mexico, we believe we will continue to post healthy core revenue growth in 2024. Slide number 17, on costs.

I would highlight the fact that once again, we end the year with positive JOS, with gross income growing above 30%, clearly more than the costs at 19.7%, which is affected mainly by the high inflation rate in some of the countries of our footprint. Also, you can see on the right side of the page, our efficiency ratio, one of the best among our European peers. It further improved to 41.7%. Slide number 18. In this page, you can see that the evolution of our asset quality metrics. It remains in line with our expectations in the context of the activity growth in the most profitable segments, as we have been saying, and also the higher interest rates.

First of all, on the left-hand side of the page at the bottom, you see the standalone cost of risk in Q4 remained at the same level as the ratio in Q3. This derives accumulated cost of risk to 115 basis points year to date. Some stability quarter-over-quarter, and the yearly number is 115 basis points, as we have guided you in the last quarterly call. As such, this is in line with our expectations. And there are two trends here that we anticipated to you last quarter. Once again, the mix effect as activity growth is biased to highly profitable but higher cost of risk retail segments and emerging market geographies. And second, a gradual deterioration of the macro environment in South America.

Then, on the page, the NPL ratio on the right, it remains stable in the year-over-year comparison at 3.4%, and our coverage ratio slightly reduces to 77%. Slide 19 on capital. Our CET1 fully loaded ratio as of December 2023 remains at a very strong level, 12.67. Needless to say, this level is well above our target range of 11.5%-12%. Following the waterfall, main impacts of the quarter are: first, our strong results generation that contributes 57 basis points. Second, the dividend accrual and the AT1 coupon payments, all in detracting 32 basis points. Third, 36 basis points for our RWA growth, a figure that embeds some annual catch-up this quarter for operational risk, as capital for operational risk is a function of the gross income, which showed a better-than-expected performance, as you all know.

And last, the bucket others of 5 basis points, positively impacted by the credit diagnoses coming from the hyperinflationary countries and the good performance of the hold-to-collect and sale bond portfolios. The combined effect, more than offsetting the negative postings, to highlight the Argentinean peso devaluation this quarter and some higher than usual model update impact. At this point, and in a full-year view, let me stress that once again, our ability to generate organic capital has allowed us to keep financing the desirable profitable growth, to significantly remunerate our shareholders with an increasing momentum and an extraordinary share buyback of 32 basis points, as you know, EUR 1 billion, and still we showed a year-end CET1 ratio well above the upper part of our target range. Regarding shareholder compensation, next page, slide 20.

As we have again repeatedly stated, we have a clear focus, clear focus on value creation for our shareholders, which guides all of our decisions, everything in the bank. In this regard, and in line with our payout policy, I'm very happy to announce that the proposal to be sent to the next annual general meeting, it contemplates the distribution of a total amount of EUR 4 billion for 2023, equivalent to a 50% payout at the maximum end of our distribution policy, and obviously above the 47% payout of last year. This payout is equivalent to a total shareholder remuneration of EUR 0.68 per share.

It's split into two: a total cash dividend of EUR 0.55, which is 28% higher than last year in cash dividends, which implies EUR 0.39 per share to be paid in April 2024, complementing the EUR 0.16 per share interim cash dividend that we already distributed last October 2023. In addition to the cash dividend, we will be proposing a new share buyback program of EUR 781 million, equivalent to 1.6% of BBVA's market cap. Including this new payout, in total, the shareholder distribution would be EUR 13.2 billion since 2021, EUR 5 billion of that from the results of 2023, including the EUR 1 billion extraordinary share buyback that we did in 2023.

In terms of share buyback programs and assuming yesterday's market price for the execution of EUR 781 million of the share buyback, we would have reduced BBVA's total outstanding shares since 2021 by 14%. 14%. And finally, slide 21 regarding our long-term targets announced on the Investor Day. Let me not go into each one of them for time purposes, but on all the metrics, we are well on track to realize our upgraded expectations, clearly, clearly beating our, all of our original goals. And now for the business areas update, I turn it to Luisa. Luisa?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Thank you very much, Onur, and good morning, everyone. Starting in slide 23, with Spain in 2023, we truly believe we have delivered an outstanding year in Spain. In a context of strong competition, we have demonstrated our commercial strength and digital lead, with loan origination growing by 10% year-on-year, achieving important market share gains in all portfolios. As such, despite lower demand from credit in the system, our loan book deleverage remained contained, stable over the last two quarters. In terms of P&L, NII stands as the main engine for revenue growth. NII accelerated throughout the year, achieving a 48.9% growth, levered on high rates, effective price management, and ultimately, ongoing customer spread improvement, increasing 128 basis points year-on-year.

In the context of higher rates, we have successfully managed to limit the rate pass-through on deposit costs, thanks to an effective customer funds management. This was achieved primarily by offering our customers seeking higher returns, mutual funds, which, as you see, grow 12% year-on-year, while benefiting from a highly transactional deposit mix, supported by the acquisition of new customers, close to 900,000 in the year. In the last quarter of 2023, these trends remained. We continued benefiting from loan book repricing and from our sound deposit mix, with deposit costs well contained. In terms of fees, very sound dynamics in Q4 across the board, but I would like to highlight the contribution from asset management, supported by strong net inflows in the year.

In this particular quarter, this heading also includes the success fees coming from the portfolio's performance in the year. Turning to operating expenses, the increase in the quarter is explained by the final adjustment in annual variable compensation accrual, as earnings have exceeded expectations. All in, strong revenues in the year lead to an outstanding efficiency ratio below 40%, more than seven percentage points below 2022. On the asset quality side, impairments and cost of risk evolution are aligned with our guidance. In short, another very positive quarter for BBVA Spain, leading to a record net profit close to EUR 2.8 billion, the highest figure in the last 15 years. Looking forward, we remain very positive on Spain's performance for 2024.

We expect NII to grow at mid-single digit in 2024, as there is still some repricing on the loan book to come, and we expect a contained deterioration on the deposit costs. Expenses growth will slow down to close to 5% as we still carry over 2023 effects, maintaining the efficiency ratio below 40% also in this year. Finally, our expectation for cost of risk in Spain is for it to stand at around 40 basis points, a quite contained level in the context of a still high interest rate environment. The start of the easing cycle will be supportive as the year progresses in terms of NPL entries. Moving on to Mexico on slide 24, I'd like to emphasize that we feel extremely positive about this franchise.

The economy continues to outperform expectations with a strong labor market, resilient consumer demand, and positive news coming from nearshoring. Thus, the loan portfolio is benefiting from this momentum, growing close to 11% year-on-year. In the quarter, also positive dynamics have unfolded, with retail portfolios remaining, while the wholesale segment is also gaining some pace, balancing a little bit the growth in the book. All in, one more year, we have outpaced the market, being able also to further strengthen our leadership position. As you know, we are the number one franchise in the country across the different loan segments in the country. On the income statement, we continue to deliver on top line, with core revenues growing by 20% year-on-year, bringing net profit to EUR 5.3 billion in the full year 2023.

Positive NII dynamics remained in Q4, supported by sound activity, close to 3% growth geared towards retail. Looking forward, we, as we have been anticipating, loan growth will be the main driver for NII growth. High fees increasing by 24% year-on-year. To note, as in the previous quarters, the growth in credit cards and payment fees, along with an increase in contribution from asset management and higher fees from CIB. On the expense side, our main focus is to maintain an efficient operation while continuing to invest to establish the basis for future growth. As it has been the case in Spain, expenses quarterly evolution is also affected by the final adjustment in the annual variable compensation accrual.

All in, operating JOS remained positive in the year, leading to further improvement of the cost-to-income ratio to an extraordinary level of 30.7%. Finally, asset quality has performed within expectations, being consistent both with our strategy in the most profitable segments and with the tightening monetary cycle. All in all, the cumulative cost of risk stands below 300 basis points in alignment with our guidance. To sum up, Mexico continues delivering outstanding results quarter-on-quarter on the back of its indisputable leadership and structural strengths. These will allow us to maintain growing earnings going forward and continue outperforming our peers. More specifically for 2024, we expect the loan momentum to continue and the loan book to grow at double-digit pace.

Based on this sound loan growth and our proven capacity to preserve spreads, we expect NII to grow at high single digits in 2024, slightly below activity growth. With regards to expenses, growth will slow down to high single digit, preserving positive JOS. And on the asset quality side, we expect a moderate increase of cost of risk to around 325 basis points, consistent with our growth strategy in a context of still high rates, especially in the first part of the year. Moving on now to Turkey on slide 25. Turkey, with a gradual transition to orthodox policies, has started to surprise on the positive side, and particularly in monetary policy, a sign of the country's commitment to tackling inflation.

Last week, we saw the policy rate reach 45%, still relatively low given high inflation, but already favoring capital inflows, international reserve buildups in the Turkish lira. Looking at the performance of our franchise in the full year 2023, the net profit reached EUR 528 million, in line with 2022, despite the very challenging environment we have been facing. The magnitude of the rate hikes during the year and the regulatory measures in place have put pressure on the costs and ultimately on spreads and NII. However, our franchise managed to offset these headwinds on the P&L through higher fees, mainly coming from payment services, brokerage, and asset management, and higher net trading income, thanks to a strong performance from global markets.

Very low Cost of Risk is just 25 basis points due to low and net NPL entries in a negative real rate environment, and strong recoveries and repayments in the commercial segments also unfolded. In 2024, Turkey's earnings contribution to the group could be similar to that of 2023 in a still challenging environment. This guidance includes an expected increase in the Cost of Risk to around 110 basis points in 2024, after an abnormally low level in 2023. Overall, we expect 2024 to be a transition year in which the basis for a more healthy, a more sustainable growth model is implemented in Turkey. Without a doubt, Garanti is the best bank in the country with proven capacity to overcome short-term challenges and take advantage of opportunities going forward. Moving on to South America on page 26.

Finally, net profit amounts to more than EUR 600 million in 2023. The region maintains a strong performance in total revenues. NII growth remains as the main driver for the P&L in 2023, in a context of loan growth and the most profitable segments and improving spreads. Higher fees also and strong NPI supported the gross income growth of the year. Despite expenses being pressured by inflation, pre-provision profit growth more than offsets the increase in impairments due to higher provisioning in a quite challenging macro environment. All in, cost of risk ends up at around 250 basis points in line with guidance. For 2024, in an improving macro scenario in the region, we expect loan growth to be somewhat higher than 2023, and cost of risk to be around 280 basis points.

Although we expect some inertia in the NPL inflows in the retail segment, especially in the first half of the year, the easing monetary cycle across the geographies will be an important supportive factor for asset quality trends going forward. And now, back to Onur, who will highlight the main takeaways of the quarter and the outlook for 2024. Onur?

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you, Luisa. So we always have this goal to finish in half an hour, so let me not go into every single bullet point that you see here on the page. The only thing I would say is that we are very happy, very happy with BBVA's performance in 2023. As a team, we are very focused on creating value for our stakeholders, our stakeholders, our customers, our shareholders, our employees, and the society in general. Very focused on that. As I mentioned to you multiple times in the past, that it's kind of a circle, and it's all starts with delivery. You have to deliver. You have to deliver your commitments, and you have to deliver the numbers. We do think that that's what we did in 2023. But 2023, it's already gone.

So we have to look forward, we have to look into 2024. So maybe jump... Let me jump into slide 29 and the guidance. Luisa has just explained the country, so you can see the guidance for every country on the right-hand side of the slide. And all of this combined, the respective guidance for the countries, it then translates into the following group guidance on the left-hand side of the page. And the group guidance is: we expect our NOP, net attributable profit, to continue to grow in 2024. We expect ROTE at high teens and above 2023 levels, above 17%. And on efficiency, we expect to beat our 42% long-term goal. With this, I conclude the presentation. I give the floor to Patricia to govern the Q&A. Patricia?

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Yes. Thank you, Onur. We are now ready to start with the Q&A session. The first question, please.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. The first question today comes from Maksym Mishyn from JB Capital. Please go ahead.

Maksym Mishyn (Managing Director and Head of Equity Research)

Hi, good morning. Thank you for the presentation and taking our questions. I have three on Spain. The first one is on your NII guidance. Any chance if you could update us on your NII sensitivity to interest rates, but also shed some light of what kind of evolution of interest rates do you bake in your mid-single-digit growth guidance? Then the second question is on loan growth outlook. I was wondering if you could just share more visibility on what you expect for loan book growth in Spain per segment. And then finally, on deposit costs, you mentioned you expect contained deterioration in deposit costs.

I've noticed that the share of time deposits increased notably in Q4, and I was wondering if this was related to some particular campaigns or this was a sector pressure, and what kind of beta evolution you expect throughout 2024? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you, Max, for all the questions. On the NII change, the NII sensitivity that you talked about, we have been putting this into the appendix of our presentation so that you can clearly see it, because I really do think it's the right question, and it's a very important number to look into. If you remember this, sensitivity to 100 basis points, it's a symmetric number, ±100 is the same. 100 basis points, step function decline in the curves would have implied more than 20% NII impact. So minus 100, minus 20% NII, not long ago, a year and a half ago. That number, we have been managing that number since that period, in the last two years, every single quarter.

The last number that we are putting into the appendix, as you would see, is now ±5%. So every 100 basis point step function change in the curve would imply now a much lower sensitivity because of the ALCO strategies that we have been implementing, and now the number is -5% in NII. You asked about in the guidance that we have given, what is the rate implication rate reference, and so on. We have multiple scenarios. The base case that we are now working with, Euribor 12-month is a clear reference rate for us, a clear important number to look into. Again, it's a range. We have multiple scenarios.

In all the scenarios, we see a growth in NII, but the latest scenario that we have is the Euribor 12 months, the average of 2024 will be around 300 basis points. With that assumption, we are guiding a mid-single-digit NII growth. You're asking about the loan growth in Spain per segment because we are guiding flattish growth overall. It's gonna be more or less like 2023. We foresee growth, again, in the consumer portfolio. We foresee growth, a segment that we have been focusing. You would have realized it every single quarter, we are posting very good numbers there. What we call the medium-sized enterprises. So the enterprise segment is very important to us.

Our average market share in Spain is 14%, but it's in certain products of retail, it's 15, 15.7% in credit cards, for example. So we are more inclined to retail banking, and our enterprise banking is around 13%, so lower than our average. We do see that there is some potential to grow there, and in private enterprises, you would continue to see that we grow. Then you were asking about deposit. Deposit in Q4, Max, it's the trend in the market. You would see we were expecting this, obviously. Some move has happened and some move will continue to happen. And combining them all, we still guide you at mid-single digit NII growth. In the presentation, I said it wrongly.

I was saying that the customer spread will continue to improve in Spain. NIM, not customer spread. Customer spread has already reached or is gonna be slightly higher or slightly lower in Q1. Customer spread is not the key thing, it's the NIM margin. Because of the ALCO strategies that we have been implementing, NIM will continue to improve in 2024. So I correct myself in the presentation, I said customer spread will continue to improve. It's more the NIM. Anything you wanna add, Luisa?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

No, I would just say that on the, on the beta side, I think that we are looking for a slightly higher beta for this year, around 25%-30%, but we achieved to be within the guidance this year, and the beta below 20%. And with regards to the ALCO strategy, I think that that will also be positively contributing, as you mentioned.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Maksym. Next question, please.

Maksym Mishyn (Managing Director and Head of Equity Research)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Antonio Reale from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Antonio Reale (Senior Analyst, European Banks Equity Research)

Hi, good morning, everyone. It's Antonio from Bank of America. Two questions from me, please. One on NII trends in Mexico and secondly on fees, please. The first one on NII in Mexico, your outlook for high single-digit growth in 2024 is very clear. You've talked about seasonality in Q4. Could you maybe just elaborate how much of the quarter was affected by negative carry trade and the key moving parts for 2024, perhaps across spreads, volumes, and hedges? The second question is on fees. Fees have been strong for a few quarters now, outperforming periods both in Spain and in Mexico. Can you talk about what are you doing differently here, what products you're placing, what are the main drivers, and how sustainable this is really going forward? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you, Antonio, for both questions. I mean, a similar strategy that we have been employing in Mexico, you can see it also in the NII sensitivity in Mexico. You would remember that a year ago, the sensitivity of, a year, a year and a half ago, the sensitivity, NII sensitivity of our Mexican franchise was around 3.7% to 100 basis points. So -100 basis points would have implied 3.7% decline in NII some time ago, and we have been reducing that sensitivity. The latest number that we have is now 2.3%, 2.3%. Why? Because we have been increasing the ALCO book, we have been increasing the fixed part of the ALCO book, and so on. You are asking what part is negative carry.

A good part is negative carry, but at the moment, it's negative carry. I mean, you see it in the ALCO details again in the appendix. We have EUR 18 billion, EUR 18.2 billion euros of securities in Mexico. The yield for that book is 8.5, 8.5%. And we have both. A good part of this, you would see that in the last year only, EUR 6 billion increase, EUR 5.8 billion to be specific, EUR 5.8 billion increase in the ALCO book. And that has come with yields of 9%-10% in general, 9%-10%. The central bank at the moment is paying us 11.25% for the liquidity. So we are taking the negative carry because we wanted to manage that NII sensitivity.

All in, though, combined, is the 2.3 number, 2.3% NII sensitivity in Mexico. As such, we are guiding, mid-single digit, looking into the Mexican numbers, the loans would be growing at double-digit, and the NII, high single-digit, close to 10%. You would see the numbers high single-digit in the coming year. Regarding fees, the second question, overall, the business is doing so well, especially in the payment systems. A good part of Mexican fee situation is payment systems. 59% of the fee income comes from what we call payment services.

50% of the 59 is actually cards and POS, the acquiring business, and that has grown 20% in the year, 20% year-over-year, 12 months, 2023 versus 12 months, 2022. So we are gaining market share in credit cards, as you know well. Asset management is also important. It has grown 17%. So overall, when I look into all the line items, I see very robust growth. So we are quite positive on the fee income evolution in Mexico as well.

Antonio Reale (Senior Analyst, European Banks Equity Research)

Thank you.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you. Thank you, Antonio. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Benjamin Toms at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Benjamin Toms (Director of Equities and Senior Equity Analyst)

Good morning, Genç, and thank you for taking my questions. As a management team, you've historically spoken about your excess capital, but spoken less about timing and cadence of buybacks. I was hoping you could remind us of how you define your excess capital, and at what point do you expect to have returned the majority of that back to shareholders? And then secondly, on cost of risk in Mexico, that's up 25 basis points, the guidance year-over-year. I mean, presumably, that's at least partially driven by mix. Your consumer and credit cards are about 25% of your Mexican loan book. Where do you see that number ultimately going to, and will that come ultimately with a cost of risk that is higher than 325 basis points? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you, Benjamin. The second one, Luisa, maybe you take that one. On the first one, on the excess capital, we have been saying it all along, and we will reiterate it once again today: We don't want to operate, we don't like to operate with excess capital, and we have a clear commitment to return the excess capital, as we have been doing, in my view, over the years, back to our shareholders. So, you remember that, the upper end of our capital target range is 12%. That 12% is still, our goal, our management reference. In that sense, we will time it properly, obviously, but we will continue on the path that we have been having. The commitment is clearly, clearly there. There is this, regulatory impact topic. I mean, organic capital generation is very robust.

We have guided you in the past that around 60 basis points, we will organically, beyond the regular payout that we have, we will continue to generate around 60 basis points organic capital. That is still our plan and our expectation. If you put that into the excess capital that we have, I do think that there will be more, more, share buybacks to come along the way, but again, we will time it properly. Luisa, on the cost of risk in Mexico?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Yes. Well, I think that, as you mentioned, the increase to 325 basis points is primarily driven also again by the continued growth in the retail portfolios that yield more. So there is definitely a mixed effect there. I think the underlying trends as well on this year have been supported also by positive impacts on, you know, the recalibration of our models. We believe that the underlying trends as we grow in the retail portfolios, continue to grow there, will be more aligned with the 325 basis points cost of risk, while maintaining the profitable growth in the portfolios, as mentioned, in terms of returns. So that's primarily what drives the increase in the cost of risk.

We also think that the start of the easing cycle expected in Q1 of this year will help progressively improve the trends going into the year. We have also been working in Q4 in fine-tuning our admission policies, specifically in the consumer segment, especially in the open market. So that obviously has implied a better, I think, admissions, quality admissions of the vintages that are new. But we still have to also see how the vintages, the older vintages progress, so that's why we have that view of 325 basis points. Going into the year, again, more biased towards the beginning of the year than towards the end, and supported on the continued growth in the retail side.

Onur Genç (CEO)

In Mexico, I would once again highlight something that we talk about all the time. The banking debt over GDP in Mexico is 36%, one of the lowest, lowest in all the emerging markets landscape. It's half of Brazil, it's 1/3 of Chile. It's. Again, we keep saying about it, but it's lower than Nicaragua. So the banking debt, it goes back to Tequila Crisis many years ago, and so on. So, Benjamin, the lending book, that's why we are guiding a double-digit loan growth. The banking book will grow in a healthy way because the leverage in the system is very high. In credit cards, we have a much higher than average market share in credit cards. We are very well positioned. Our scale is very positive on that one.

You ask about the 25%, weight of the loan book. In general, the loan book will grow. That's the key story in Mexico. And within that, given our strength, I would expect that 25% to go higher. But you would not expect a dramatically different number going forward, 'cause the overall lending book will also increase in a very healthy way.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Benjamin. Next-

Benjamin Toms (Director of Equities and Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Sofie Peterzens, from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Sofie Peterzens (Executive Director, European Banks Equity Research)

Yeah, hi, this is Sofie from JPMorgan. So my first question would be: how you view inorganic growth opportunities, especially in South America and also in Spain? And then my second question would be, in Mexico, Nubank is becoming quite aggressive. They've had a huge success story in Brazil. But how do you see kind of competition in the Mexican banking market, and does it make any impact on BBVA? And then just a final follow-up question, how should we think about the regulatory capital headwinds or any capital headwinds in 2024? I guess you will see the share buyback deducted, but if you could just comment on that. Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you, Sofie, for all the three questions. Maybe on the regulatory topic, Luisa, you help me out. On the inorganic growth, there is nothing new. We are focused on organic growth. Our complete focus is on organic growth. It doesn't mean that we don't look into opportunities and so, but we are focused on organic growth, and nothing more to say on that one. On the Mexico question, I have this chart. I wish I could project it to all of you now, and you can see that, which is basically the neobanks market share in the new cards that is printed in Mexico. So forget the base, forget the stock. The new cards that are emitted in a single month, what percent of that is BBVA, and what percent of that. It's an estimation.

It goes back to our own data, but what percent of that newly emitted cards and the spending from those cards come from neobanks in general? And some of the names that you mentioned, or one of the names that you mentioned, we respect them a lot. They are very successful, very nimble, very agile players, and we always respect our competitors, and we appreciate them. But I also see the trend in this curve, and when I look into this trend, it's a very nice trend. In the last seven quarters, they, the peak, the neobanks market share in these new cards emitted, it peaked in Q1 of 2022, and since then, every single quarter, it's coming down. This is a clear strategic program for BBVA. We are defending our turf.

We are getting closer to our customers. We will, we will do our best to make sure that we compete in the best possible manner. And then, regulatory headwinds?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Yes. Well, right now, we don't foresee for 2024 any specific regulatory headwind. I think the most relevant impact is obviously Basel, the entry of Basel IV into effect as of today, as of January 1, 2025. As we have stated, we expect a very limited impact, around less than 40 basis points on a fully loaded basis. But really, of that, we would expect less than 30 basis points to come into effect in 2025. This is easily absorbed by our capital, organic generation. Nevertheless, I think that what we are looking at is that it would be reasonable to expect in 2024, CET1 ratio somewhat above 12% in order to avoid the potential cliff effect of this impact in Q1 of 2025.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Sofie. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

Next question is from Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Ulargui (Iberian Banks Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I have two questions. The first one, it's on the healthy revenue, core revenue growth that, Onur, you mentioned for 2024. If you could give us a bit of a sense of what kind of growth levels you are thinking of in terms of revenues. And alongside with that, I have noticed that you have high single-digit growth in Mexico in costs and 5% cost growth in Spain. I mean, is there room to adjust that cost base? I mean, you have done plenty of initiatives to improve efficiency on the cost side as well in the last few years. There is kind of ability to manage costs in case revenues get a bit worse. The second question, just only on the buyback, has it been deducted already, the EUR 781 million? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you, Ignacio. Let's start with the last one very quick. Of course, all the buyback numbers, when you see them, they are deducted from capital. So the number of 12.67 already incorporates the impact of the buyback. The core revenue growth that you're asking, Ignacio, if I'm not mistaken, you were asking overall, no? With Spain and Mexico and-

Ignacio Ulargui (Iberian Banks Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Yeah, group, group level.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Growth level. I mean, it goes back to the countries, because you have to look into it at the country level to understand the dynamics. Once again, I will highlight this, NII, in Spain, is growing, in our expectations, mid-single digit, which I do think it's a, it's a very fair number. In, in the sense, once again, the NIM is going to help us because of the reduced NII sensitivity that we have had now. It will help us, and the, the volumes, as you also see in the guidance, it's going to be flattish. So there's some... But within that flattish, as we commented a little bit in the, in the beginning, there is some mix change. We are going to be changing our growth, to higher return, higher value segments.

So some mix change and continued strength in the NIM will help us to deliver this mid-single-digit NII figures. In the case of Mexico, the story is a bit different, obviously. It's about volume growth. Again, we discussed it many times in the past. All of you are aware of it, but I have to I need to specify it once again. Something, in our view, big is happening in Mexico, and the growth rate, GDP growth rate of Mexico is 3.2% in 2023. 3.2%-3.4%. 3.4 might seem, well, in the context of emerging markets, it might not be that high. No, 3.4, if you look into the past 15 years of Mexico, the average is 2.1%.

So as compared to the average and what Mexico has been living through, something big is happening. And that something big is finally, really, this concept of nearshoring, the concept of investments in Mexico. I mean, FDI is up in the first nine months of 2023, the latest published figure, is up 30%, 30. Investments, private investments, especially in machinery and equipment, and imports of capital goods, is up 20%. I mean, we publicize, our research publishes this notion of the industrial parks and the space in the industrial parks. You cannot find, in the north of Mexico, you cannot find open, available industrial park space.

So this notion of nearshoring, and as you all know, in the first half of 2023, for the first time after decades, Mexico has become the number one exporter to U.S., passing Canada and China. This is happening, and this is driving private investments, and investments has always been the key issue in, in Mexico, and now it's happening. All of this, and then I tie it back to our revenue growth expectations. All of this will drive, will fuel loan growth. We have grown double-digit this year. We are expecting the same, even a bit more, in the loan growth, growing at double-digit, because the rates will also start coming down a bit in the coming year. As a result, the core revenues in Mexico will also continue to grow. And again, we do have a wonderful franchise, wonderful franchise in Mexico.

We are very confident that that core revenue growth will continue and the NII growth, as we guided high single digit, will be realized. Then, you asked about expenses. At the moment, we are seeing more opportunities to grow, at the moment. As a result, we are guiding on the expenses as we have guided. In the case of Spain, close to 5%. In the case of Mexico, growing at high single digit, because we still see, do see the opportunity of growing profitably in certain, in certain carteras, in certain portfolios. In that sense, we always have the options, but we don't see the need and the discussion to have this year when we have, when we are facing nice growth in the revenue side. Anything else you want to add, Luisa?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

No, I would, I would only say that obviously efficiency is always part of the, you know, DNA of the bank, and all the countries have ongoing efficiency plans to support actually fueling, fueling continued growth. So, so I think that's compatible as well with the plans that we have in each country to address continued efficiency.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Ignacio. Next question, please.Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Please go ahead.

Francisco Riquel (Partner & Head of Equity Research)

Yes. Thank you. It's two follow-ups. First, in Mexico, your NII guidance of two percentage points below loan growth is consistent with your NII sensitivity to lower rates. But you also mentioned that the mix should continue to improve. You are capturing that in the cost of risk guidance, which has also been increased. But I would have thought that the NII would have grown faster. So I wonder if you can comment and you can help us reconcile some of the increase in the cost of risk with the increase in the NII guidance for 2024, particularly the deposit beta in Mexico. You mentioned that you are paying up for corporate deposits, so what's the impact there? And if that could offset the impact, the positive impact from the loan mix.

The second question is about the capital target that you have of 11.5%-12%, and specifically the 12% threshold to return the excess capital. You said that in 2021, and since then, your rep has gone up by 50 basis points. It's now 9.1. Basel IV, you mentioned close to 40 basis points. And there is also noise about a potential countercyclical buffer in Spain. So with all this in mind, do you think that the 12% threshold on a 350 basis points of NDA buffer is still valid going forward, pro forma for Basel IV, or would you update that during the year? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you, Francisco. On the first question, I wasn't sure whether you were confirming that we did have a proper guidance or you were challenging it. I wasn't sure. But, what I can tell you is that in the case of... Because you are focused more on the asset quality, the mix change is already incorporated in that guidance that we are giving you. Quarter only, not year to date, but quarter only, cost of risk in Mexico, in Q3, where we have seen some uptick, if you remember, was 308 basis points, in the quarter-only number. In Q4, that number is around 297 basis points.

So the mix change, that the fact that we are growing a bit more on high margin, high return, but high cost of risk segments, is already incorporated in the, in the number that you are seeing. And why is, and the deposit betas and, and why is the NII growing at high single digit? Because there will be some slight decline in customer spread. With rates coming down, I gave you the sensitivity also, customer spread will come down and NII will come down and NIM margin will come down slightly. So as a result, we are going to grow in loans at double digit, but the NII, we will be growing at high single digit because of that impact, basically.

On capital, as you say, pro forma, as of January 2024, as of this month, the requirement is going up to 9.1%, 9.09%, if I'm not mistaken, no? With the 12%, the gap, the difference is 291 basis points in CET1 buffer, 291 basis points. 291 basis points. What is the average of the largest banks in the European zone? The 15 peer group that we define, which is all footnoted in all the presentation pages, the ones who are in the EU, in that list, what is the average of the buffer that others have? 243 basis points. So we do have a larger buffer than the average of our key competitors.

I remind you once again, we discussed it, in, in the past, so I feel sometimes that I'm repeating myself, but it is important. If you take a 15-year, 10-year, 20-year, relatively long enough time frame, and you look into quarterly, but annual organic capital generation and the standard deviation of that, you do see that our number is, first of all, it's higher, so we do have a better number. But even the vol... the volatility around this is relatively low as compared to our peers. In that context, a bank with a business model like us, a bank with a clear competitive advantage, I underline this, clear competitive advantage of having either the best or one of the best banks in the countries that we are in.

I mean, being number one, number two or being number six makes a big difference in banking in any country and you look into us and you do see that these-- they do have really great banks in the country that they are in. Even in very tough macro environments that we operate, we typically have either the best or one of the clear best banks in that country. If you look into volatility, the level of profitability that we have, and this notion that we have wonderful franchises in wherever we are, I, I do think that this buffer is, is, is more than enough. You mentioned about, about some other topics of the cyclical buffer, countercyclical buffer, and so on. Countercyclical buffer, as you know, Francisco, it goes back to negative it's credit gap.

We are in the negative territory, and the trend is a downward trend, so the loans are not growing in Spain. So I really don't understand this discussion that we might need countercyclical buffers. In an environment of credit declining? I don't see, but if it happens, okay, we put it in the number, and we move along. But we are clearly confident that the buffer that we have is more than enough. Anything on Luisa?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Well, no, I would only add as well that with regards to the Basel IV impact, we stated that around, fully loaded would be around 40 basis points. But as you know from the EBA impact analysis published in September 2023, the CET1 would decrease by 220 basis points for the Group I entities, and when considering European Commission specificities, it would be 150 basis points. So we are going to be, you know, one of the lowest, I think, impacted banks on Basel IV.

Onur Genç (CEO)

I rarely see this discussion at all in the market. One of the, again, strengths of BBVA is the fact that we have the highest leverage in Europe among the larger banks. We have the highest risk density, and our RWA density for BBVA is 47%, the average of European banks is 28%. Given that, we are not affected by the output floor, and there is something called Basel coming, and the impact on the whole sector, it will be quite important, and the impact on BBVA is one of the lowest. And that will be also a key differentiator for capital returns, for many other discussions that we have been having. So I think it's an important point. It's not far away. It's a year from now.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Paco. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Alvaro Serrano (Managing Director, European Banks Equity Research)

Good morning. I had a really follow-up questions. Onur, you mentioned the rate sensitivities in Spain. There was symmetric plus minus 5%. I just want to double-click on that because maybe... Can you share, and maybe this is more for Luisa, the deposit beta assumptions behind the minus 5%? Because the fact that it's symmetric, I'm not sure if you're using the same deposit beta assumptions on the way up and the way down, conscious that on my numbers, you've got 21%, 22% beta in Q4 standalone. So it looks like the standard 50% beta on the way down could be optimistic, but I just want a clarification there. What assumptions are behind that number?

And second, and apologies if you've already mentioned this, can you share the rate assumption you're using in Mexico? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Very good. Well, I said symmetric, but it's basically the difference is there, but very little. So, it's marginal plus/minus. But going back to the deposit beta, Luisa, you want to take it? It's basically. How you calculate the beta is important. What we are calculating is our deposit cost, the increase in our deposit cost, which was zero when we started the cycle, divided by what has happened to the deposit rate of ECB. ECB deposit rate has increased from -50 basis points to 400, so the denominator is 450. And then in the numerator, what has happened to our deposit cost? It used to be zero, now it's 86 basis points. Divided, you get 19% beta at the end of Q4.

With the same assumption, the rates will start coming down, but you take the average in the numerator of what has happened to the rate, and then what happens in the numerator, we are telling you that in our assumptions, it's gonna be 25%-30% at the end of December 2024. Because with the decline of the rates in the numerator, we will also see some help in the velocity of increase in the deposit costs. So I don't see the, I don't have the quarterly beta and so on, but at the end of December 2023, the beta was 19%. No, Luisa?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Yes, and I think that, as I mentioned before, we are expecting the deposit betas to go up to 25%-30%. I think the idea that we have from the ALCO perspective is to maintain the sensitivity at these levels. And obviously, there's an active management of the portfolio behind that, so that we will see, depending on the velocity of the migration, the, you know, eventual, you know, price of the deposits in terms of how they're managed, and obviously the rates, those moving pieces will determine, you know, the evolution. And our idea, as we mentioned, is to try and maintain the sensitivity at the current 5% level with regard to those moving pieces.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Now, you asked about Mexico rate assumption, the end of period 2024. So at the end of December 2024, we are foreseeing the official interest rate to be 9%. At the moment, as you know, we are at 11.25%, and we are expecting the first rate cut to start in Q1 of this year. I would also on this one, sometimes, you, some of you mentioned this and so on. Independent of the rate evolution, we did see these in recent past. I mean, the rate, the official rate was 4.25%. 4.25%, a few years ago, not too long ago. And when it was 4.25%, our customer spread was 10%.

We do operate in Mexico with high spreads because of the nature of our bank and because of the customer segments and the products. Independent of this decline, we have proven in the past that we can operate with very high customer spreads. That is why we are guiding NII sensitivity to be 2.3%.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Alvaro.

Alvaro Serrano (Managing Director, European Banks Equity Research)

Thank you.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Next, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Carlos Cobo, from Société Générale. Please go ahead.

Carlos Cobo (Director of Equity Research)

Hello, Carlos from SocGen here. Thank you very much. A couple of questions. One is, again, on rate sensitivity in Spain. Sorry, I've lost my connection.

Onur Genç (CEO)

No, we hear you, Carlos.

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

We can hear you.

Carlos Cobo (Director of Equity Research)

Yeah, yeah. Can you hear me now? Sorry, the headphones went off. So one is about the, and how it changed from, say, 20% to 5% now. And you explained it very well. Part of that is the hedging, but how-- what's the duration of that hedging, and how could that be if you couldn't have those hedges? So I'm trying to get a better feeling of what is the perspective for that NII once those hedges expires in 2026, 2027. I know this is very dynamic, but it'll be interesting to get some color on that, if you could. And the second one is on Mexico, in terms of, the growth and what is the mix. You said 11% growth this year. How much is corporate, how much is consumer?

If you could add how much you're getting from Banamex in terms of market share, and what would be the growth mix expected for 2024? Because so far, we keep hearing about the nearshoring, but consumer lending keeps getting a very big share of the growth in Mexico. So I was wondering if you expect an acceleration of that corporate loan demand to come through. Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

On the ALCO, or do you want to take it, Luisa?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Yes. Well, on the ALCOs, as we've mentioned before, the focus has been obviously on locking in our rate sensitivity in the last quarters. We've increased the book EUR 8.5 billion in the year. It stands right now at EUR 38.7 billion, and the current yield is 3.1%, coming from 2.5% the last quarter of last year. Duration, including hedges, is 3.4. If we were to exclude the hedges, the duration would be at 4.4. I think that we've been managing also the yield at 3.1% level, especially through the hedges. Right now, the portfolio composition stands at 85% is fixed, and the 14% or nearly 15% is floating rate.

I think these are the main variables of the portfolio. You know, we've been primarily buying medium-term Spanish bonds and unwinding the hedges that we had. Going forward, as we mentioned before, we don't expect to be adding a lot onto the portfolio. I think we're happy with the size. We may keep it, you know, flat or slightly increasing, taking opportunities to invest maturities at attractive fixed rate levels if those come to be. But it will obviously be depending, as we mentioned before, on the balance sheet dynamic, especially on the deposit side. This is what we expect for 2024.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Very good. I mean, I will give you one more number. The floating part of our ALCO portfolio at the end of 2021, two years ago, the floating part was 60%, and with time, every single quarter, we kept or lately, actually, in the last few quarters, we kept reducing it. Then 60% floating at two years ago is now 15% floating. So we are more fixed. So if rates, if rates go up, we might regret this decision, but our expectation is rates will not go up. So if that's the case, we have done the right thing. Then, regarding Mexico, then the growth in Mexico, we do see the internal drivers of consumer growth still to be there.

In that sense, once again, the overall leverage in the country is so low that there is room in both segments, in both areas, in different products to grow. We do expect still a higher growth in retail. I just want to give you one number, though. In the case of commercial, the business side, the growth in the year, in 2023, you see it in the pages, but it's 6.7% growth on the commercial enterprise side. But this is partially impacted by the dollar devaluation, or it makes the peso appreciation versus dollar. If you isolate for this currency impact, because some of the loan book in the company segment is in dollars, if you isolate for this, the growth would have been 10.5%. So the enterprise segment is also growing.

You don't see it as much because of this, depreciation, devaluation impact of US dollar versus Mexican peso. But in the case of retail, it's 14.4% higher, and those dynamics will continue to be there. Because when rates come down, there will be more vibrant consumer spending and so on. Again, we are very positive on Mexico. I mean, even this year, the growth that we are expecting for Mexico now, and typically in the last quarters, we have already... We have upgraded in a positive way, the growth. But the growth that we are expecting in GDP for Mexico in 2024 is 2.9%, around 3%. It's still a very robust environment, and with rates coming down, on the retail side, you will still see some strength.

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Thank you.

Carlos Cobo (Director of Equity Research)

Thank you.

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Thank you, Carlos. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Britta Schmidt, from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Britta Schmidt (Partner and Senior Equity Research Analyst of Spanish and Italian Banks)

Yeah, hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. Could you... So coming back on the topic of capital distributions, I mean, irrespective of the SREP and the countercyclical buffer, the messaging from the ECB is very clear that banks are supposed to maintain or increase their capital buffers. Does this messaging have any impact on how you think about the payout trajectory versus maybe a couple of quarters ago? The second would be, could you explain a little bit the outlook for the Turkish customer spread with the kind of forced conversion of FX deposits probably still ongoing, do you expect this to worsen further, or has this bottomed now? And maybe you can also give us the FX and inflation assumptions you used in your guidance to a flat contribution. And then lastly, just a clarification on Mexico.

If I piece together the guidance, is it fair to expect around 5% net profit growth in local currency, or could this be better in 2024? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Britta, you are now asking us to give profit guidance by country. But your number 5%, it should be slightly better than that. Yes. Not slightly, better than that, let me say it that way. In the second question, Turkish customer spread, has it bottomed out? We are seeing some pickup in the number in the month of January. It goes back again, as you said, to a currency-protected scheme and the requirements of the supervisor and the central bank in this case, on this. You might have seen it, but the requirements of the renewal of what we call the central bank-covered currency protected scheme, they have relaxed the regulation a bit, they relaxed the rules a bit.

And as a result of that, we are seeing some pickup, not big one, but slight pickup in the customer spreads in the month of January. So our expectation is that given the situation that we are seeing some return to normal, return to orthodoxy in Turkey, we have seen the bottom in Q4, is our expectation. And then the first question was on the capital returns. I understand what you're saying, but you should all be aware, again, of the fact that there is a big discontinuity for the European banking sector, which is Basel implementation in January 2025, it's a year from now. In that context of Basel impact, I do think that the numbers that you would see today in terms of capital, they will be different and the base will change.

Everyone will be affected, and Luisa has given the numbers, and the expectation now for the European banking industry is around 150 basis points different. So the capital of today and the capital after Basel, they would be two different numbers because the baseline would change or the calculation or the approach would change. In that context of there will be this Basel impact also, I cannot square the fact that there will be further requirements and big requirements. I don't see that. But again, we are dependent on our supervisors, on our regulators, on these decisions, and let's see. Let's see what happens. The thing that on the capital returns, I would reiterate one thing which might not be that clear.

We are, again, very committed, as we have been telling you from the first day, that we will return back to our capital target range, the upper end of our range, which is 12%. And we will time it properly, but we will continue to do share buybacks or extraordinary payments to our shareholders because we do have the excess capital, and more importantly, we do create organically, we do create capital in every single quarter. So the 12, to avoid the cliff effect, then let's again be very specific on this. The expected Basel impact for BBVA is less than 40 basis points. But on... Less than 30 of this will come in in 2025, in January, so there will be some phasing and so on.

We always will look into fully loaded, but the impact in 2025-- January 2025 will be less than 30. To avoid the cliff effect, we would not be immediately going below 12 because of the Basel impact and so on. Incorporating the 2025 Basel impact, we are still very committed to return the excess capital to our shareholders.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Britta. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Andrea Filtri (Head of Pan-European FIG Team, Co-Head of European Equity Research)

Yes, thank you for taking my questions. A more specific question on NII sensitivity, please. What would be the NII sensitivity with forward rates and flat beta? And the second question is on payout. Do you stand by the 50% regular payout split between 40% in cash and 10% in share buyback? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

On the first one, do you have an answer? No. Nacho, why don't we get back to you on that one? We don't have the models in front of us, but we can get back to you.

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

This is the assumption that we have as the current basis of what we've been managing, so the other assumptions are not what we're managing, let's call it that way.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Yeah, but deposit beta with deposit beta being flat, what would be the sensitivity? We can come back to you on that one. Then on the regular, on the payout of 50, 40, 40 + 10, we did talk to you in the past that we do have this tendency of having a significant part of our payout for cash dividends, which is the 40% that you have seen. Then the rest, as long... It depends, obviously, on the share price, on the value that we create for our shareholders.

But our threshold there or our level where we would then say, "No, we won't do any more share buybacks," is the fair, in our view, a fair value of the share price, which is not the tangible book value of the share, because the fair value, in our view, is much higher. So there is still a lot of room to get to that level where we would not consider any more of the share buybacks, and we would only do the cash dividends. So I would say that 40/10 or in that range will be obviously it's the decision of the board, and it's the decision of the general assembly, but our suggestion would be in these ranges going forward.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you. Thank you, Andrea. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Ignacio Cerezo from UBS. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Cerezo (Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst of European Banks)

Yeah. Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I've got two, if I may. The first one is your best approximation of Argentina's profits in 2024, or how much are you budgeting versus the 2023 number? And the second one is. It's qualitative, open-ended question, but, how long do you think it's gonna take Turkey to go back to a normalized profit contribution? I'm not gonna ask you exactly what that contribution is going to be, but from a timing point of view, actually, is it like a two, three year period, or do you think it can take longer than that, based on what you have today in terms of macroeconomic assumptions and measures being taken in the last six months? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

On Argentina, you did become the expert on Argentina, Luisa.

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Well, I think that the first thing that's important under our assumptions is the macro scenario, especially on the devaluation front. So obviously, as you know, we saw a 54% devaluation in the last quarter of the Argentine peso, and we think there will be a further devaluation, and our research teams are expecting the depreciation or the currency to go to 1542. So that obviously affects the environment or obviously the PNL development, and also the inflation, because as you know, with hyperinflation, we also need to consider inflation. We see a context of inflation increasing in 2024. We will have an end of an average inflation growing. Obviously, end-of-period inflation will come down.

We had 211 at the end of 2023, and we're expecting end-of-period inflation of 175 in 2024. However, when you looked at that on an average basis, the average inflation will go significantly up in 2024. So that obviously impacts how we see the hyperinflation, you know, accounting and the net profit, net monetary loss. And obviously, these are moving pieces, but within those contexts of further strong depreciation of the currency, higher average inflation in the year, we're expecting Argentina to, you know, be, you know, around perhaps 20%-30% below the numbers that we have in the year. But again, these are very much moving pieces, and this is in current terms.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Yeah. It doesn't change the overall big picture, but slightly lower is what we are in the planning cycle, that's what we have. Regarding the Turkish situation, I just remembered that I forgot to answer Britta's question in full. The expectation of inflation in our numbers, in the expectation for 2024, the inflation for the country is at 45% at the end of the year. 45% inflation in 2024. Obviously, the government is expecting less, but our forecast is 45% at the moment. Then the question of Nacho on when do we expect Turkey to normalize? Is it a two, three year period or five, six year period? Our expectation is two, three year period.

What we have seen in the last six months in Turkey is even better than our positive expectations that we could have had. This return to orthodoxy is proving to be working. You are seeing it in multiple dimensions. You are seeing it in the CDS spreads. It went down below 300, like half of what it was some months ago, and then now it's a bit back up above 300. But the CDS spreads, the money flow, and there are something... They are going on the right path, in our view. There's a new economic team, as you all know, in Turkey, and the economic team is doing what they need to do, and they are also keeping a very close focus on fiscal deficit. They are keeping a very close focus on inflation and so on.

If the path continues, which is our base case expectation, then Turkey will come back to normal in two, three years. This is what also the government has in the plan. I mean, they are expecting, if I'm not mistaken, 33%, 2024 inflation, and 2025, they are expecting around 15% inflation, which basically says that they will normalize. Turkey will normalize in two years. So there might be some margin around these around these forecasts of the government, but if they continue on the path that they are on, then, it's a two, three year timeframe that we are talking about. And when that happens, there's this option value that we talk about, about Turkey. Turkey is a very large country, more than $800 billion of GDP and so on.

If that happens, if that path continues, we have an amazing option value in Turkey. If there was no hyperinflation in Turkey, hyperinflationary accounting in Turkey, we would have posted not 500, EUR 2 billion of profits this year. In local currency, it's in that range, no? EUR 2 billion. If Turkey continues on this path, we do have this upside that will be coming along from Turkey.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Nacho. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Marta Sánchez Romero at Citi. Please go ahead.

Marta Sánchez Romero (Director of Equity Research)

Thank you very much. My first question is on the structural hedge in Spain. So you've got EUR 39 billion of ALCO portfolio. Are you expecting to increase that over time? What is like the end target? And then if you could add any color on receiver swaps that you may have, that would help us with our, with our model. So any receiver swaps that you've, you've added in your book. And on capital, I think, Onur mentioned plans to generate 60 basis points of capital per year, organically after dividends. But this year you've only generated 14 basis points, even if I, I, if I strip out the, the EUR 1 billion share buyback last year. So my question here is: Are you expecting any other recalibration of models that you've been doing to get back to you in, in, 2024?

Are you working on optimization of internal models that would release some risk-weighted assets? And related to this, sorry, the impact of recalibration that we've seen this year would be very helpful. Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

On the first one, on ALCO?

Luisa Gómez Bravo (CFO)

Okay, well, as I mentioned before, we are looking at the size of the ALCO book to be reasonably the one that we would like to have. We may be, you know, ending the year at this level or slightly above, depending again on the rate levels, and if we find opportunities to renew maturities at these levels or not, and obviously, as again, depending on the dynamics of the customer fund evolution in the year. With regards to the swaps, I think that aside from the hedges that we have on the ALCO books, primarily, as you know, we hedge the mortgages.

Around 30% of our retail mortgages are currently at fixed rate, and out of the 70% floating rate mortgages that we have, we have hedges in place for around 45%-50% of the book. And therefore, you know, we do have some hedging in place on the mortgage book that we, again, dynamically manage going into the year.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Very good. On the second question, which is a very precise, very right question, Marta, thank you for the question. First of all, I mean, at the surface, we have reduced the capital of the bank has been reduced by 13 basis points. The share buyback of EUR 1 billion is 32 basis points. 32 plus minus 13, it's 19 basis points. So 19 basis points is what we have organically created, as it seems on the surface. But if you remember, when we said the 60 basis points organic capital generation, we always said it excludes two things: regulatory impacts and model updates, and also the M&A. We didn't do any M&A, but in the year, there were...

If you remember, in Q1, we told you at the time, there was a 20 basis points regulatory impact in the models. In Q4, we discussed it as I was going through the presentation, there was this annual model update. This year, it produced more than usual, negative impact on the capital figures, which was around 20. Then you add the 19 plus the 20 that you have seen in Q1, plus the model updates, again, we are not expecting in the coming years that the annual update would produce as much. But when you add this year's number of around 20, you get to 60. That's our guidance for next year as well.

When we look into our numbers, the organic capital generation, excluding regulatory impact and model updates, excluding M&A, should be around 60 basis points.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Marta. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Fernando Gil, from Bestinver. Please go ahead.

Fernando Gil (Head of Research)

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Three quick ones, please. First one is, can you please update on your unrealized losses on the hard-to-collect portfolios? I think in Q3 was less than 250 basis points of tangible book. The second one would be, can you please comment on asset quality and Stage 2 increases we saw in Q4? And finally, the last one is, are you going to plan to do an Investor Day during this year for the next three years? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Very good. Let's do it very quickly because we are running out of time a bit. The unrealized losses in the hold-to-market, hold-to-maturity books is around EUR 400 million. EUR 400 million. Very low as compared to many other banks out there, and it's mainly in Turkey, by the way. And then the Stage 2 on the Q4, the increase in the Stage 2, it's mainly because of if you go country by country, it's mainly because of the mortgage portfolio in Spain. Given the their variable rate mortgages and so on, we did help our customers in the last few quarters on restructuring their mortgages. And we do apply new definition of default into those portfolios.

When you do the restructuring, although the customer is fully fine and paying and so on, the fact that you do the restructuring takes them to the Stage 2 or Stage 3, even in certain cases. This is also one of the reasons why the coverage has come down a little bit, because it's mainly the increase in the NPLs also, is mainly because of the mortgage portfolio, which typically are covered. As you know, I mean, the LTV of our mortgage portfolio in Spain is 42%, if I'm not mistaken, around 40%. So these are very nicely covered portfolios, but given the fact that we are helping our customers, our accounting obviously implies that we have to increase the Stage 2s, 3s, and this then also implied lower coverage. Investor Day, we are planning for it, yes.

In the coming years, we are in the process of thinking about it, on when and how. We will be updating you when we clarified it, but the last time that we did it was three years ago. We will be recapping what we have achieved versus the goals that we have set, and we are planning to do it probably in Q1 of next year. That's the current thinking, but we will update you when it's finalized.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

Thank you, Fernando. Next question, please.

Fernando Gil (Head of Research)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Carlos Peixoto, from CaixaBank. Please go ahead.

Carlos Peixoto (Director of Banking and Equity Research Analyst)

Yes. Hi, good morning. A couple of questions from my side, a bit of a follow-up, actually. So, on Turkey, the question would actually be, you do flag, or you did mention in your guidance the increase in cost of risk to around 110 basis points, but you expect net profit contribution to remain broadly stable. I was wondering if you could shed some light on the main drivers offsetting this, the payback from a higher cost of risk. And then the second was also a follow-up on what Luisa mentioned on Argentina. When you... I believe you mentioned the contribution to net profit should be something like 40% lower than this year. If-

...but this would be in constant euros. And then you mentioned that Argentinean peso, you're expecting it to depreciate to 1,542, so around 42% depreciation, devaluation, if I'm correct. So should we put this on top of the 40% drop you were mentioning before? Or how should I look at it? Thank you very much.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Well, maybe on the second one, very quickly, it's in current euros.

Carlos Peixoto (Director of Banking and Equity Research Analyst)

Yes.

Onur Genç (CEO)

It's in current euros. And just to be very clear, and some of you also write this in your reports and so on, complication of understanding some. In the hyper countries, it's very simple for us. We always look into current euros, current euros, okay? So the number that you see is the final number. So in the case of numbers, if you talked about the profits of Argentina and so on, current euros. Cost of risk in Turkey, you're saying with the higher cost of risk, how come Turkey will deliver more or less the same profit? The answer is in the customer spread. We have seen the bottom, in our view, in Q4, and the customer spread will continue to improve in the coming year. Anything, anyone, anyone else? Are we done?

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

No. There, there is another question. Thank you, Carlos. Next question, please.

Operator (participant)

The last question comes from Hugo Cruz from KBW. Please go ahead.

Hugo Cruz (Director and Senior Equity Analyst of European Banks)

All right. Thank you very much. I just wanted to ask you about the long-term potential for loan growth in Mexico. You know, is there a point where we could start to see the loan growth to decline? And so can I think about the cap in terms of nominal GDP or in terms of bank loans to GDP, where you could see that loan growth coming down? Or, you know, how do you think about that? Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Hugo, I mean, you partially mentioned that the banking debt over GDP is 36% in Mexico. Banking debt over GDP in Brazil is 72%, double. Given the dynamics of Mexico, and I will repeat myself, we do think that something big and positive is happening in Mexico. The US market is so big, and this notion about nearshoring, shortening the supply chains, the driver, the tendency is so big that we are very positive on the loan growth, at least in the coming two, three, five years, it's gonna be quite positive. There is still so much room. It goes, again, it goes back to... I really looked into this. It goes back to the Tequila Crisis and everything there.

The leverage in the country is so low that there is room to grow in a profitable way.

Patricia Bueno Olalla (Global Head of Shareholder & Investor Relations)

This, this was the last question. Thank you very much. Thank you everyone for participating, and as always, let me remind you that the entire IR team will be available to answer any further questions you may have. Thank you.

Onur Genç (CEO)

Thank you to all. Bye-bye.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.