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    BCE (BCE)

    BCE Q2 2024: Record Fiber Performance Fuels Growth, $20M Savings

    Reported on Aug 1, 2024 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$33.73Last close (Jul 31, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$33.90Open (Aug 1, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.17(+0.50%)

    What went well

    • Strong Fiber Strategy: Management emphasized that fiber remains the growth engine on the wireline side and is delivering impressive performance—recording the second best Q2 since 2007 with robust bundling success that enhances customer lifetime value.
    • Operational Efficiency via AI & Automation: The company is leveraging advanced AI, ServiceNow, and automation initiatives to drive cost savings—citing $20 million in labor savings this quarter and targeting an additional $150–200 million in in-year efficiency improvements.
    • Effective Subscriber Segmentation: BCE’s disciplined approach in differentiating between prepaid and premium postpaid subscribers is generating high-quality loadings. This strategic segmentation supports future ARPU stabilization while capturing growing newcomer demand.

    What went wrong

    • Declining Broadband ARPU: Analysts noted that although initial expectations for fiber broadband were in the $90–$100 range, current figures are closer to $55–$60, potentially challenging long-term investment returns.
    • Persistent Competitive Pricing Pressure: Management faces an intensely competitive wireless market where aggressive discounting and rate adjustments continue to depress ARPU and could compress margins.
    • Uncertain Impact of Automation Initiatives: Although cost-saving measures like ServiceNow and AI are being deployed, management did not provide precise forecasts for their incremental benefits, introducing uncertainty regarding future margin improvements.

    Q&A Summary

    1. Wireless ARPU
      Q: What are wireless ARPU prospects?
      A: Management noted that despite intense competitive pressure, they reset pricing in early July to foster sustainable ARPU. It’s too early to judge the final impact, but they remain focused on core investments and cost discipline.

    2. Fiber Investment
      Q: Is fiber investment positive?
      A: Management affirmed that fiber remains the growth engine, with strong bundling success and enhanced customer lifetime value supporting positive long‐term returns despite current ARPU challenges.

    3. Cost Savings & Prepaid
      Q: What about cost savings and prepaid mix?
      A: They expect in-year cost savings to reach full run rate by Q4 while strategically migrating prepaid customers towards premium postpaid, enhancing overall margins.

    4. Automation & AI
      Q: How will AI and automation help?
      A: Management is integrating ServiceNow and AI to drive operational efficiencies and cost reduction, treating these initiatives as additive to existing workforce savings.

    5. Margin & CapEx
      Q: How do margins and CapEx evolve?
      A: They manage overall EBITDA margins, aiming to lower wireless CapEx to below 15% capital intensity while indirectly controlling prepaid margins through disciplined cost management.

    6. Revenue Drivers
      Q: What will drive future revenue growth?
      A: Management reaffirms full-year guidance, attributing current softness to low-margin equipment sales while OUTFRONT Media’s revenue remains negligible due to its recent acquisition.

    7. DRIP & BYOD
      Q: Clarify BYOD and dividend DRIP?
      A: They confirmed that 70% BYOD applies to postpaid activations and, although DRIP options were considered, they prefer to focus on reducing payout ratios through free cash flow generation.

    8. Fixed Wireless
      Q: How is coverage outside fiber addressed?
      A: While the focus remains on fiber in most regions, the company also leverages fixed wireless and related bundles to supplement service in non-fiber areas.

    Analyst Coverage

    Research analysts covering BCE.