Executive Summary

Q1 2025 revenue of $9.98m beat S&P Global consensus ($8.67m*) while GAAP diluted EPS of $(0.88) missed the $(0.81)* consensus; net loss widened to $(60.8)m on higher R&D tied to zelenectide pevedotin programs and lower U.K. R&D tax credits (consensus: GetEstimates, S&P Global)*.
Pipeline execution was active: Duravelo-3 (NECTIN4‑amplified breast cancer) opened and is recruiting; multiple ASCO/AACR abstracts; additional MT1‑MMP human imaging data presented at AACR with BRC data now representative of 12/14 patients .
Management reiterated key 2025 milestones (Duravelo‑2 dose selection 2H 2025; initial EphA2 imaging 2H 2025) and maintained cash runway into 2H 2027 with $793.0m cash at 3/31/25 .
Potential stock catalysts over the next 6–12 months: Duravelo‑2 dose selection readout (2H 2025), additional Duravelo‑1 updates (2H 2025), radiopharma imaging (mid/2H 2025), and the continued expansion into NECTIN4‑amplified tumors (Duravelo‑3/‑4/‑5) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Revenue beat vs consensus, driven by collaboration revenue of $9.98m (vs $8.67m*), even as the business remains pre‑commercial; GAAP EPS missed (see below) (consensus: GetEstimates, S&P Global)*.
- Clinical execution: Duravelo‑3 in NECTIN4‑amplified breast cancer opened and is enrolling; multiple ASCO abstracts on zelenectide pevedotin; AACR radiopharma data further validated MT1‑MMP target and BRC platform properties (representative of 12/14 patients) .
- Management emphasized progress and confidence: “we remain on track for dose selection in our Phase 2/3 Duravelo‑2 trial… in the second half of this year… and expected financial runway extending to the second half of 2027” — CEO Kevin Lee .
What Went Wrong
- EPS missed consensus as GAAP diluted EPS came in at $(0.88) vs $(0.81); net loss widened YoY to $(60.8)m on higher zelenectide pevedotin clinical spend and lower U.K. R&D tax credits (consensus: GetEstimates, S&P Global).
- Collaboration revenue fell YoY (Q1 2025: $9.98m vs $19.53m Q1 2024), underscoring the inherent variability of non‑product revenue streams .
- Operating expenses stepped up: R&D $59.1m (vs $34.9m Q1 2024) on program acceleration; G&A $21.1m (vs $16.4m) on higher professional/consulting and personnel costs .

Financial Results

Sequential trend (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$2.676	$3.708	$9.977
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(50.802)	$(51.854)	$(60.754)
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.74)	$(0.75)	$(0.88)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)	$48.265	$49.778	$59.058
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)	$18.257	$21.593	$21.123
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$66.522	$71.371	$80.181
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions, end of period)	$890.862	$879.520	$792.973

Year-over-year (Q1)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$19.530	$9.977
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(26.563)	$(60.754)
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.62)	$(0.88)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)	$34.864	$59.058
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)	$16.382	$21.123

Versus S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Outcome
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$9.977	$8.673*	Bold Beat
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.88)	$(0.81)*	Bold Miss

KPIs and balance sheet

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$879.520	$792.973
Working Capital ($USD Millions)	$861.375	$798.463
Total Shareholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)	$793.060	$740.333

Note: Revenue is collaboration revenue; no product sales reported .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Cash runway	Through	“into 2H 2027” (Q4 release)	“into 2H 2027”	Maintained
Duravelo‑2 dose selection (zelenectide pevedotin)	Timing	“2H 2025”	“2H 2025”	Maintained
Duravelo‑3 initiation (NECTIN4‑amp breast)	Timing	“Start in 1H 2025”	“Open and actively recruiting”	Executed
Radiopharma MT1‑MMP: additional human imaging	Timing	“mid‑2025”	AACR poster presented; additional data mid‑2025 reiterated	On track
Radiopharma EphA2: initial human imaging	Timing	“2H 2025”	“2H 2025”	Maintained

No quantitative financial guidance (revenue/margins/OpEx/tax) was provided; guidance focuses on clinical milestones and runway .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was identified; themes below reflect the last three quarterly press releases (Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q1 2025) .

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Zelenectide pevedotin in mUC	Q3: 45% ORR in EV‑naïve late‑line mUC (Duravelo‑1) . Q4: 65% ORR (13/20) in 1L cis‑ineligible combo with pembro; Duravelo‑2 enrolling .	On track for Duravelo‑2 dose selection in 2H 2025; ASCO abstracts accepted .	Positive execution momentum
NECTIN4‑amp strategy (breast/NSCLC)	Q4: Enhanced responses in NECTIN4‑amp; FDA Fast Track for TNBC/NSCLC; trials planned 2025 .	Duravelo‑3 (breast) opened and recruiting .	Expansion underway
Radiopharma (MT1‑MMP/EphA2)	Q3: First human MT1‑MMP imaging; strategy outlined; EphA2 selected .	Additional human MT1‑MMP imaging at AACR; data representative of 12/14 patients; EphA2 imaging expected 2H 2025 .	Platform de‑risking progressing
Safety profile	Q3: Low‑grade neuropathy rates with BTCs; differentiated safety noted .	Q4/Q1 narrative consistent; combo safety broadly consistent, no G4/5 TRAEs of interest .	Stable/consistent
Leadership/governance	—	New Chair (Felix Baker) post‑AGM; Dr. Riva to Board; CMO promotion; CAB additions .	Strengthened clinical/BD oversight
Cash/runway	Q3: $890.9m cash; runway into 2H 2027 . Q4: $879.5m; runway intact .	$793.0m; runway into 2H 2027 reiterated .	Adequate, declining with plan

Management Commentary

“We… shared additional human imaging data that continue to validate the potential of MT1‑MMP as a novel cancer target and demonstrate the positive properties of our Bicycle Radioconjugate molecules…” — Kevin Lee, Ph.D., CEO .
“Our work to develop zelenectide pevedotin… continues to progress… remain on track for dose selection in our Phase 2/3 Duravelo‑2 trial… in the second half of this year.” — Kevin Lee, Ph.D. .
“With… expected financial runway extending to the second half of 2027, we remain focused on… execute our strategy and make meaningful advances for patients.” — Kevin Lee, Ph.D. .

Q&A Highlights

We did not identify a Q1 2025 earnings call transcript in SEC/IR sources; therefore, no Q&A exchanges to summarize. Commentary and clarifications in this recap are based on the company’s Q1 press release and other contemporaneous press releases .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025: Revenue $9.98m vs S&P Global consensus $8.67m* (Beat); GAAP diluted EPS $(0.88) vs $(0.81)* (Miss). Number of estimates: Revenue 10*, EPS 4* (S&P Global). Drivers of the EPS shortfall were higher zelenectide pevedotin clinical program spend and lower U.K. R&D tax credits; no product revenue contribution .

Metric	Period	Actual	Consensus (S&P Global)*	# of Estimates*
Revenue ($USD Millions)	Q1 2025	$9.977	$8.673*	10*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	Q1 2025	$(0.88)	$(0.8088)*	4*

Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) via the GetEstimates tool.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Revenue beat but EPS miss: collaboration revenue outperformed consensus while stepped‑up R&D spend for zelenectide pevedotin drove a wider loss; expect estimates to adjust more on OpEx/EPS than on near‑term revenue given the pre‑commercial model (consensus: S&P Global)*.
Clinical catalysts cluster in 2H 2025 (Duravelo‑2 dose selection; Duravelo‑1 combo and monotherapy updates) — key readouts for the registrational trajectory in mUC and potential accelerated paths .
NECTIN4‑amplified expansion is advancing (Duravelo‑3 opened); TNBC/NSCLC Fast Track designations de‑risk the strategy; watch initiation of Duravelo‑4/‑5 in 2H 2025 .
Radiopharma platform continues to de‑risk (MT1‑MMP human imaging now representative across 12/14 patients; EphA2 imaging next) with company‑sponsored trials planned in 2026 — a medium‑term optionality lever .
Balance sheet supports the plan (cash $793.0m; runway into 2H 2027), but cash burn is rising with broader clinical activity; milestones will be important to sustain investor confidence .
Governance/leadership additions (incoming Chair Felix Baker; Board/clinical leaders; new CMO) add experienced oversight ahead of pivotal execution windows .
Trading setup: anticipate sentiment swings around ASCO communications and mid/late‑2025 clinical updates; focus on safety/efficacy profile durability in mUC and biomarker‑selected tumors as stock drivers .

BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC (BCYC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary