Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Acquisition of Putnam Investments brings complementary investment capabilities with 85% of their AUM beating peers in all time periods and 87% of mutual funds rated 4- and 5-star, enhancing performance in both equity and fixed income and expanding presence in retirement and insurance markets. ,
- Significant expected inflows from partnerships, including the $5.5 billion win from Great-West, which is incremental to the previously expected $25 billion inflows, will increase assets under management and revenue potential. ,
- Strong growth in ETFs and SMAs, with ETF AUM increasing over 40% from the prior year to over $21 billion, including Putnam, and five consecutive quarters of approximately $1 billion net inflows, positioning the company well to capitalize on industry trends and investor preferences.
- Reliance on performance fees and anticipated cost savings from the Putnam acquisition to meet financial guidance may pose risks if these do not materialize as expected , ,.
- Performance challenges in core fixed income strategies are negatively impacting net flows despite positive interest in other fixed income categories.
- Extended timeline (up to three years) for technology integration may delay anticipated operational efficiencies and cost savings.
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Guidance on Expenses and Putnam Integration
Q: What's the updated expense guidance post-Putnam acquisition?
A: Management expects expenses for fiscal year 2024 to be between $4.55 billion and $4.6 billion, including Putnam's addition and double rent expenses in New York City. Excluding Putnam, expenses are up only 1% to 2%, while revenue is expected to rise 5%. They anticipate realizing at least $150 million in expense savings from Putnam by the end of the fiscal year, contributing $150 million to $170 million in operating income. -
Putnam's Operating Income Contribution
Q: Is the expected $150 million run rate from Putnam still on track?
A: Yes, Putnam is projected to contribute between $150 million and $170 million in operating income by fiscal year-end. This translates to about 3% accretion for full year 2024, with the acquisition being slightly accretive in the second fiscal quarter. -
Alternatives Net Flow Trajectory
Q: How do you view net flows in alternatives amid flagship fundraises?
A: Over the last two years, they've raised $40 billion in private markets, offset by $12 billion in net outflows from liquid alternatives. They anticipate fundraising between $10 billion and $15 billion in private markets this year, expecting mid-single-digit growth in alternative asset revenue. In Q1, they raised $5 billion in private markets, including closings from Lexington and Benefit Street Partners. -
Capital Deployment and Share Buybacks
Q: How should we think about capital deployment and buybacks this year?
A: The company aims to maintain its dividend trajectory and invest in organic growth. With M&A activity slowing, they plan to be more opportunistic with share repurchases, having increased buybacks over the last few quarters. They also have $250 million in debt service coming up this year. -
Insurance Mandates with Great-West Life
Q: Can you update on the $25 billion insurance mandates from Great-West Life?
A: They expect the $25 billion mandate to come in throughout the year, across multiple strategies, with the bulk going to Western Asset. Beyond this, they see opportunities to grow assets further with the Power group of companies. -
Fixed Income Demand and Flows
Q: What's the outlook for fixed income demand and Western's engagement?
A: Over half of their top ten gross-selling funds are in fixed income. Fixed income gross sales are up 8%. The institutional pipeline is strong in multisector credit, high-yield, and global income, with Western Asset being a significant contributor. Putnam adds top-performing fixed income strategies, enhancing their offerings. -
Retirement Channel Growth with Putnam
Q: How will Putnam and Great-West accelerate growth in the retirement channel?
A: The Putnam acquisition provides capabilities in stable value (with $18 billion in assets), ultrashort, and target-date funds. These products, coupled with an expanded sales force, position them better in retirement and insurance channels. The partnership with Empower enables co-creation of custom products. -
Technology Integration and Cost Savings
Q: What's the plan for technology outsourcing and potential savings?
A: They're moving towards a single investment technology platform, with all specialist teams on board. Implementation will take approximately three years. Long-term savings are expected to be meaningful, but immediate investments in areas like AI and data are prioritized. -
Clarification on Lexington and BSP Fundraises
Q: Are there additional catch-up fees expected from Lexington's fundraise?
A: No more catch-up fees are expected; the fund had its last fundraising on December 31, and all is included in reported numbers. Benefit Street Partners' fundraise is not yet included in assets under management as of December 31. -
Incremental Wins from Great-West
Q: Is the recent $5.5 billion win from Great-West part of the $25 billion mandate?
A: The $5.5 billion win is incremental and not part of the $25 billion mandate. It comes from the retirement channel.