FR
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC (BEN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 FY25 adjusted diluted EPS was $0.49, a slight miss versus Wall Street consensus of ~$0.50*, and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.15; total operating revenues were $2.064B, modestly below consensus of ~$2.087B*, reflecting continued Western Asset outflows and lower average AUM .*
- AUM rose 5% QoQ to $1.612T on $78.0B positive market impact and $2.7B cash management inflows, partially offset by $9.3B long‑term net outflows; excluding Western, long‑term net inflows were $7.8B, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of positive net flows ex‑Western .
- Alternatives fundraising was $6.2B (private markets $5.3B), with pro forma private credit AUM nearing $90B following agreement to acquire a majority interest in Apera; ETF net flows were $4.3B, the 15th consecutive quarter, with ETF AUM reaching $44.1B .
- Q4 FY25 guidance called for effective fee rate in the “high 37s” bps, performance fees of ~$100M (vs usual ~$50M prior), comp & benefits $860–$870M, IS&T ~$155M, G&A $190–$195M, tax rate at the high end of 25–27%; fiscal 2026 run‑rate cost saves of at least $200M (ex performance fee comp) expected .
- Near‑term stock catalysts: moderation in Western outflows, alternatives fundraising trajectory toward ~$18.5B FY25, expense discipline and FY26 cost saves, plus tokenization innovations (Benji intraday yield) enhancing platform differentiation .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Diversified growth across vehicles and geographies: “Strong growth continued across investment vehicles... ETF platform achieved its 15th consecutive quarter of positive net flows, attracting $4.3B... Internationally, we had positive net flows... ending AUM of approximately $500B” .
- Alternatives momentum: $6.2B fundraising in the quarter, private markets $5.3B; agreement to acquire majority interest in Apera, bringing pro forma private credit AUM to nearly $90B; alternatives AUM was $258B at quarter‑end .
- Flow improvement ex‑Western: long‑term net outflows improved to $9.3B; excluding Western, long‑term net inflows were $7.8B, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of positive net flows ex‑Western .
What Went Wrong
- Headline outflows and revenue softness: long‑term net outflows of $9.3B (including $17.1B at Western) pressured revenue to $2.064B, down 2% QoQ and 3% YoY .
- EPS and revenue missed consensus: adjusted EPS $0.49 vs ~$0.50*, revenue $2.064B vs ~$2.087B*, and EBITDA ~$358.7M vs ~$435.6M*, reflecting mix and average AUM headwinds; GAAP EPS fell to $0.15 from $0.26 QoQ and $0.32 YoY .*
- Western Asset regulatory overhang noted by analysts; management emphasized continued cooperation and highlighted moderation of outflows (June ~$4.1B; July expected ~$3B), but uncertainty persists .
Financial Results
YoY snapshot (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025):
Estimates comparison (S&P Global; oldest → newest):
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment/AUM mix (end of period):
Key KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Long‑term net outflows were $9.3 billion, a significant improvement from last quarter, and excluding Western Asset Management, long‑term net inflows were $7.8 billion... Our institutional pipeline... rose by net $4 billion to a record $24.4 billion” — Jenny Johnson, President & CEO .
- “Fundraising in alternatives generated $6.2 billion for the quarter... we announced an agreement to acquire a majority interest in Apera... bringing our pro forma private credit AUM to nearly $90 billion” .
- “Our ETF platform achieved its 15th consecutive quarter of positive net flows, attracting $4.3 billion... and reached a new high of $44.1 billion in AUM... Canvas’ AUM of $13.7 billion, increasing 20% from the prior quarter” .
- CFO guidance: “We expect [Q4] effective fee rate to be in the high 37s... comp and benefits $860–$870 million (assumes ~$100 million of performance fees)... IS&T ~$155 million... G&A $190–$195 million... tax rate at the high end of 25–27%” .
- On tokenization: “We just launched Intraday Yield on Benji... blockchain is so efficient that it enables those enhanced services... it will fundamentally change the rails of the financial system” .
Q&A Highlights
- Integration of Apera and private credit platform: Management aims to operate as “one private credit group” across BSP, Alcentra, and Apera to globalize expertise in direct lending, asset‑backed and real estate credit .
- Tokenization economics: Benji intraday yield and on‑chain operations reduce transaction costs; management envisions blockchain disintermediating financial “toll‑takers”, improving efficiency and client experience; white‑label wallet under discussion with distributors .
- Western Asset regulatory overhang: Management is cooperating; outflows moderating (June ~$4.1B; July expected ~$3B); no reserves update; Western ~<6% of revenues .
- Expense and fee rate clarity: Q4 EFR “high 37s”; detailed expense lines and higher performance fees; FY26 ≥$200M run‑rate cost saves; Apyra adds ~$30M expense .
- DC/401k private markets: Target date (~$19B) scaling post‑Putnam; partnerships (e.g., Apollo) and managed accounts; plans to launch target dates with private markets by 1H26, noting litigation risk slows uptake .
Estimates Context
- Q3 FY25: Adjusted/Primary EPS $0.49 vs consensus ~$0.50* (slight miss); revenue $2.064B vs consensus ~$2.087B* (slight miss); EBITDA ~$358.7M vs ~$435.6M* (miss). Drivers included Western outflows and lower average AUM; adjusted margin held at 23.7% .*
- Prior quarters: Q2 FY25 EPS in line ($0.47 vs ~$0.47*), but revenue missed ($2.111B vs ~$2.441B*); Q1 FY25 EPS beat ($0.59 vs ~$0.53*), while revenue missed ($2.252B vs ~$2.490B*) .*
- FY context: Street sees FY25 normalized EPS ~2.12* (actual to date ~2.22), FY26 ~2.54*, with revenue ~8.58B* in FY25 and ~8.80B* in FY26; consensus target price ~$24.82* [GetEstimates].*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix shift and flow improvements are real: Equity and multi‑asset AUM rose QoQ with ex‑Western inflows turning positive for seven straight quarters; sustained ETF/Canvas momentum supports fee stability despite headline outflows .
- Alternatives are a structural growth driver: $6.2B quarterly fundraising and pro forma private credit near $90B post‑Apera build a durable earnings base, with wealth channel penetration rising and perpetual vehicles scaling .
- Expense discipline is credible: Detailed Q4 expense guide and FY26 ≥$200M run‑rate savings set a clearer margin path; watch Q4 performance fees ($~100M) and EFR “high 37s” execution .
- Western overhang moderating but unresolved: Outflows are declining (June/July cadence), yet regulatory uncertainty remains a stock narrative risk; ex‑Western flows mitigate headline pressure .
- Tokenization leadership is differentiated: Benji intraday yield and wallet/IP position BEN to lower costs and win stablecoin/fintech partnerships; monitor commercialization/white‑label traction .
- Capital return intact: Dividend maintained at $0.32/share; opportunistic buybacks evidenced by 7.3M shares repurchased in Q3; balance sheet flexibility supports both growth and returns .
- Near‑term focus: Validate Q4 fee rate and performance fee guidance, track Western monthly flows, and watch alt fundraising trajectory (~$18.5B FY25 expected) alongside Lexington timing .