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    Business First Bancshares (BFST)

    BFST Q2 2025 Guides 4–6 bp NIM Improvement by Year-End

    Reported on Jul 28, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$25.30Open (Jul 28, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$25.30Open (Jul 28, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Margin Improvement Potential: Management expects core net interest margins to improve by 4–6 basis points for the remainder of the year, driven by lower deposit costs and strategic liquidity management during the core conversion, which positions the bank for enhanced earnings performance going forward.
    • Steady Loan Growth and Quality: The bank is guiding for mid single-digit annualized loan growth, with credit migration showing resolution on non-performing assets and a diversified loan mix that supports improved risk parameters and organic growth.
    • Diversified Fee Income Opportunities: Expansion in fee-generating businesses is evident with growing activity in SBA loan service and derivatives offerings, which can add incremental earnings and contribute to a more robust, diversified revenue stream over time.
    • Margin pressure from excess liquidity: The bank’s need to hold additional liquidity for the core conversion and Oakwood integration could continue to drag on its net interest margin, as those funds yield less compared to active loan deployment .
    • Competitive loan pricing compressing yields: Despite targeting mid to low seven percent yields, the softening in loan yields—contrasting lower average weighted rates with higher spot rates—signals competitive pressure that may compress margins further .
    • Credit quality concerns and resolution delays: The migration of certain credits to nonaccrual status and the reliance on reserves to manage these exposures raise the risk that prolonged resolution of credit issues could eventually impair earnings .
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +15%

    Total Revenue in Q2 2025 increased to $129.27 million from $112.046 million in Q2 2024. This improvement is supported by stronger core revenue streams, in line with previous periods that saw enhanced interest income due to higher loan volumes and improved rates , together with diversified noninterest income streams boosting overall revenue.

    Interest Income

    +15%

    Interest Income reached $114.85 million in Q2 2025 versus $99.87 million in Q2 2024, propelled by an increase in loan volume and improved yields. This mirrors earlier trends observed in Q1 2025 where a $17,682,000 rise was driven by higher volumes from loans and securities along with favorable rate changes.

    Loans Segment

    +15%

    Loans Segment grew to $104.03 million in Q2 2025 from $90.604 million in Q2 2024, reflecting renewed growth in commercial and industrial lending. This build‐up is consistent with past periods where organic growth and regional expansion, particularly in C&I loans that contributed $68.1 million in Q1 2024, laid the groundwork for further increases.

    Noninterest Income

    +18%

    Noninterest Income increased to $14.42 million in Q2 2025 from $12.176 million in Q2 2024, driven mainly by gains on sales of loans, enhanced pass-through income from equity investments, and higher service charges. The factors echo the strong performance in Q1 2025, where a $1.0 million gain on loan sales and additional contributions from service fees and equity investments played critical roles.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Loan Growth

    Q3 2025

    Low to mid‑single‑digit growth forecast for Q2 and Q3

    Expected mid‑single‑digit growth trending toward the higher end of the 4% to 6% range on a run rate per quarter basis

    raised

    Net Interest Margin

    Q3 2025

    Expected to improve in the low single‑digit basis points range

    Anticipated margin improvement in the range of four to six basis points

    no change

    Non‑Interest Expense

    Q3 2025

    Core expenses expected to increase to the low $50 million range per quarter

    For Q3, non‑interest expenses expected to be in the low $50 million range

    no change

    Capital Ratios

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    TCE expected to be close to 8.50% and total risk‑based capital in the 13.30% to 13.40% range; aspirational TCE in the low nine range

    no prior guidance

    Non‑Performing Assets

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Expected NPAs to drop significantly as they resolve certain credits

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Margin Management

    Q3 2024 discussions highlighted a core NIM expansion of 12 basis points driven by flat deposit costs, increased loan yields, and a structured liability approach.

    Q2 2025 discussions focus on maintaining margins amid the drag from excess liquidity and branch sale impacts, with modest margin improvement expected later in the year.

    Recurring topic with a shift from aggressive expansion to managing liquidity‐related drags while remaining optimistic about future improvement.

    Liquidity Pressures

    Q3 2024 called attention to deposit composition adjustments and liability restructuring to handle interest rate movements, implicitly managing liquidity through deposit growth.

    In Q2 2025, liquidity pressures are explicitly discussed as excess liquidity needed during the core conversion process, which drags margins but is maintained for operational flexibility.

    Recurring focus with more detailed emphasis on excess liquidity management in the current period.

    Loan Growth and Quality Dynamics

    Q3 2024 noted steady loan growth (approximately 4.4% annualized) with growth driven by commercial real estate and C&D portfolios, while credit quality issues were confined mainly to one SBA-guaranteed loan that was expected to resolve soon.

    Q2 2025 indicates a slower start to loan growth with growth now expected in the low 4% to 4.5% range initially, along with more widespread credit quality concerns – including multiple NPLs increasing from 0.69% to 0.97% and more complex resolution plans.

    Recurring topic with a deterioration in sentiment; increased credit quality concerns and a more cautious outlook on growth are evident.

    Revenue Diversification and Fee Income Opportunities

    Q3 2024 emphasized diversified revenue sources, including contributions from asset management, SBA service providers, and swap fees, despite inherent fee volatility.

    Q2 2025 focuses on broadening fee income through expanding SBA loan services, growing derivatives offerings, and new initiatives designed to double fee income impact, addressing previous fee volatility.

    Recurring topic that is evolving toward expansion and overcoming past volatility, with a more aggressive diversification strategy.

    Impact of Oakwood Integration

    Q3 2024 discussions detailed positive margin benefits from Oakwood integration, including loan discount accretion and improved deposit cost management, while acknowledging initial cost pressures with benefits expected to materialize later.

    Q2 2025 continues to discuss Oakwood’s impact, noting that while margin benefits are expected (four to six basis points improvement), operational cost pressures remain, with cost savings delayed until post-conversion in the later quarter.

    Recurring subject with similar strategic benefits, though current sentiment shows cautious timing amid continued operational cost pressures.

    Competitive Loan Pricing Compressing Yields

    Not mentioned in Q3 2024 discussions.

    Q2 2025 introduces competitive pressure as banks aggressively price loans in the mid-to-low 7% range, resulting in yield compression and deferred loan fee impacts.

    New topic emerged in the current period highlighting competitive pressure on yields.

    Emerging Credit Quality Concerns

    Q3 2024 mentioned credit quality issues related mostly to one SBA-guaranteed loan, with a normalized credit environment and expectations for prompt resolution.

    Q2 2025 sees a broader focus on credit quality as NPLs rise (from 0.69% to 0.97%) due to multiple exposures, with detailed reserve levels and a longer resolution timeline for problematic credits.

    Recurring topic with worsened sentiment; more extensive credit quality concerns are now evident, potentially impacting future performance.

    Reduced Emphasis on Robust Deposit and Balance Sheet Management

    Q3 2024 discussions underscored robust deposit growth and active balance sheet and liability management to optimize funding.

    Q2 2025 does not indicate a reduced emphasis – deposit and balance sheet management continue as strategic priorities, with focus on managing liquidity and funding sources amid operational changes.

    Recurring topic with no reduction in emphasis; the focus remains strong in both periods.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Will core margin improve this year?
      A: Management expects a modest 4–6 bps margin improvement by year-end, thanks to tighter deposit cost management and efficient funding, although timing may vary with ongoing liquidity adjustments.

    2. Loan Yields
      Q: Why were loan yields soft this quarter?
      A: Yields experienced softness due to deferred fees and competitive pricing, with fixed rate loans setting in the mid to low sevens, balancing yield aspirations against market dynamics.

    3. Capital Ratios
      Q: What are target capital ratios post-acquisition?
      A: Management is targeting a TCE near $8.50 and risk-based capital ratios in the 13.75–14 range to ensure robust financial flexibility and support future growth.

    4. Loan Growth
      Q: What is the loan growth outlook for the year?
      A: Loan growth is expected to remain in the 4–6% range, with current annualized rates around 4.5%, reflecting measured expansion amid a cautious yet opportunistic market.

    5. Liquidity & Credit
      Q: How will excess liquidity and credit moves be handled?
      A: Excess liquidity from the core conversion will be maintained through the Oakwood integration phase, while credit transitions are monitored with appropriate reserve levels on underperforming loans.

    6. Fee Income
      Q: What is the outlook for fee income growth?
      A: Management is upbeat on fee income, noting growth in SBA loan servicing and derivatives, with correspondent banking fees expected to significantly add to earnings over the next 12–24 months.

    Research analysts covering Business First Bancshares.