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    Bunge Global (BG)

    BG Q2 2025: Integration Synergies Lift Margins, Q3 Outlook Soft

    Reported on Jul 30, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$76.34Last close (Jul 29, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$78.40Open (Jul 30, 2025)
    Price Change
    $2.06(+2.70%)
    • Successful Integration & Synergies: The completion of the Viterra combination is expected to unlock significant cost and commercial synergies, with teams already collaborating effectively across global operations, enhancing margins and positioning the company to capture further value in processing and logistics.
    • Strong Processing Performance & Resilience: Q2 results were driven by better-than-expected processing performance in South America, Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S., providing a solid operational foundation even in a challenging macro environment, which supports a bullish earnings outlook.
    • Robust Liquidity & Capital Returns: The company’s strong cash flow generation, healthy liquidity position, and the remaining $800 million commitment for share buybacks underscore its ability to return capital to shareholders while investing in growth and operational improvements.
    • Weaker Near‐Term Earnings Outlook: The Q&A indicated that the company expects a weaker Q3 due to the crush margin lock from Q2, suggesting near-term volatility and pressure on earnings.
    • Margin Compression and Uncertain Demand: Uncertainties such as continued softness in merchandising and compressed refining margins—impacted by U.S. biofuel policy and a shift to spot market pricing—could pressure profitability.
    • Integration and Synergy Execution Risks: The challenges of integrating Vitera, including execution delays and capturing expected synergies, continue to pose risks for the combined company's performance.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Adjusted EPS

    FY 2025

    $7.75

    $7.75

    no change

    Adjusted Annual Effective Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    21%–25%

    21%–25%

    no change

    Interest Expense/Net Interest Expense

    FY 2025

    $220 million–$250 million

    $220 million–$250 million

    no change

    Capital Expenditures

    FY 2025

    $1.5 billion–$1.7 billion

    $1.5 billion–$1.7 billion

    no change

    Depreciation and Amortization

    FY 2025

    $490 million

    $490 million

    no change

    Agribusiness

    FY 2025

    Slightly lower than previous outlook

    Higher than previous outlook

    raised

    Refined and Specialty Oils

    FY 2025

    Similar to previous outlook

    Down from previous outlook

    lowered

    Milling

    FY 2025

    Expected to be up from last year

    Expected to be down from previous outlook due to the sale, though in line with last year

    lowered

    Corporate and Other

    FY 2025

    More favorable than previous outlook and prior year

    In line with previous outlook but favorable compared to last year

    lowered

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Viterra Combination Integration & Synergies

    Q1 2025 emphasized the strategic rationale, planning, and anticipated commercial and cost synergies ( ); Q4 2024 focused on detailed integration planning, regulatory approvals, and initial projections of first‐year synergies, with a mix of neutral to slightly positive pro forma expectations ( ).

    Q2 2025 discussed the completion of the Viterra combination, active operational efforts to capture cost savings and commercial opportunities, and early realization of durable operational synergies ( ).

    Shift from planning and anticipation to execution and realization. The conversation has evolved from strategic rationale and initial integration efforts to a completed combination with tangible operational benefits.

    Margin Pressure & Earnings Volatility

    Q1 2025 noted regional disparities, tariff/regulatory uncertainties pulling forward earnings, and overall earnings pressure ( , ); Q4 2024 highlighted margin challenges in South America and North America, lower adjusted EPS, and volatile earnings amid mixed regional performance ( ).

    Q2 2025 described improved processing results in South America coupled with continued regional margin pressures, especially in Europe and North America, while EPS was influenced by market volatility and ongoing uncertainty in biofuel policy ( ).

    Consistent caution with nuanced improvement. While margin pressure remains, there are signs of regional improvements and better processing dynamics in Q2 compared to earlier periods.

    Regulatory Uncertainty & Policy Environment

    Q1 2025 discussed tariff shifts, biofuel policy uncertainty, and anticipation of an EPA RVO update, with a proactive approach to global trade challenges ( ); Q4 2024 focused on U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty, trade concerns, and policy clarity needed for improved margins ( ).

    Q2 2025 focused on U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty affecting the Fine and Specialty Oils segment, discussed RFS and RVO impacts, and noted tariff uncertainty along with global trade dynamics ( ).

    Ongoing uncertainty remains a key theme, with Q2 placing increased focus on biofuel and tariff issues while still highlighting the need to adapt to a complex policy environment.

    Global Operations Resilience & Regional Performance

    Q1 2025 emphasized a resilient global infrastructure, a balanced footprint, and region-specific performance (e.g., strong results in Brazil, mixed outcomes in North America and Europe) ( ); Q4 2024 reiterated their global operating model, with challenges in South America and North America but confidence in overall operational resilience and portfolio diversification ( ).

    Q2 2025 described how completed integration drives operational efficiencies, with detailed regional performance – strong processing in South America, improved margins in North America, and modest results in Europe and Asia – highlighting adaptation to market volatility ( ).

    Consistent emphasis on resilience with a new focus on leveraging integration synergies. The narrative maintains global adaptability while detailing regional performance adjustments in the current period.

    Renewable Fuels & Low-Carbon Strategic Partnerships

    Q1 2025 highlighted the partnership with Repsol and innovative approaches using novel crops to support lower carbon fuels ( ); Q4 2024 discussed the pending closure of the Repsol partnership and strategic investments in renewable fuels amid policy challenges ( ).

    Q2 2025 did not provide specific comments on renewable fuels or strategic partnerships, aside from indirect mentions related to U.S. biofuel policy affecting specialty oils ( ).

    Diminished emphasis in Q2. Earlier calls featured active strategic partnerships toward renewable fuels, but the current period shifts focus away from these topics, suggesting a potential strategic pivot or integration priority.

    Acquisition Strategy & CJ Selecta Synergies

    Q1 2025 covered the strategic merits of the Viterra combination, sale of non-core assets, and termination of the CJ Selecta agreement with plans to pursue attractive soy protein opportunities ( ); Q4 2024 detailed both the Viterra acquisition and advancing the CJ Selecta purchase for soy protein concentrate with projected EBIT accretion ( ).

    Q2 2025 did not mention acquisition strategy or CJ Selecta synergies, with the focus solely on the Viterra integration.

    Reduced relevance in Q2. While previous quarters discussed multiple acquisitions and associated synergies, Q2’s narrative exclusively centers on the completed Viterra integration, indicating a temporary pullback on additional acquisition commentary.

    Liquidity & Capital Returns

    Q1 2025 emphasized a strong liquidity position with $8 billion of committed credit and excess cash from the Viterra transaction, along with disciplined capital allocation ( ); Q4 2024 detailed robust liquidity from credit facilities and asset sales, active share buybacks, and well-managed CapEx spending ( ).

    Q2 2025 reported ample liquidity with $8.7 billion in committed credit (mostly unused), a high cash balance, an upgraded credit rating post-merger, ongoing share buybacks, dividends, and robust CapEx plans ( ).

    Consistent financial strength. Liquidity and capital returns remain a priority with continued strong fundamentals and strategic capital allocation, buoyed further by the Viterra merger.

    Market Demand & Pricing Dynamics

    Q1 2025 noted a pull-forward effect from tariff and regulatory uncertainty, mixed segment performance, and a shift to spot-focused demand ( ); Q4 2024 discussed challenging market dynamics in South America, balanced global supply and demand, and the impact of biofuel and trade policies on pricing ( ).

    Q2 2025 highlighted regional differences in soybean crushing, persistent uncertainty in refined and specialty oils pricing due to policy factors, adjustments in the spot market, and evolving global trade flows impacting demand and margins ( ).

    Evolving market dynamics. While uncertainties and spot market pressures persist, there is an observed expectation of improved processing margins later in the year and an overall steady demand, reflecting gradual market adaptation.

    1. Buybacks & Returns
      Q: Buyback remaining and domestic oil pricing?
      A: Management confirmed $800,000,000 remains for buybacks and noted domestic soybean oil could gain a pricing edge versus imports under current policies.

    2. Vitera Earnings
      Q: What is clean Vitera earnings base?
      A: The team explained that pro forma figures include integration costs, and a clean standalone earnings base for 2024–2026 would look more robust as integration matures.

    3. Second Half Outlook
      Q: Has second half guidance shifted?
      A: They expect a weaker Q3 with lock-in of earlier margins and a stronger Q4 driven by improved processing, countered by softness in merchandising and oil pressure from biofuel policy uncertainty.

    4. Commercial Synergies
      Q: When will synergies be realized?
      A: Management stressed that with teams aligned under one voice, early synergy opportunities are emerging, though full realization will happen gradually as integration deepens.

    5. SBO Economics
      Q: How do SBO and depreciation affect margins?
      A: They highlighted that the 45Z policy now includes all North American feedstocks, enhancing the competitiveness of soybean oil with favorable ILUC adjustments and bonus depreciation benefits.

    6. Organic Investments
      Q: What is the progress on capex projects?
      A: Projects such as Morristown are nearing commissioning in October, with most capex completed this year and only minor spillover expected into early next year.

    7. Soy Crush & SREs
      Q: How performed soy crush and when for SREs?
      A: Processing margins improved notably in late June across regions, and management anticipates an SRE decision by August/September.

    8. RSO Margins
      Q: Could U.S. refining margins compress further?
      A: While U.S. refining margins are expected to moderate from recent lows, increased crude demand and continued strong food-side demand should help maintain an overall global $400,000,000 EBIT target.

    Research analysts covering Bunge Global.