2024 EPS Guidance and Viterra Impact
Q: How will Viterra acquisition affect $9 EPS guidance?
A: Management expects the Viterra acquisition to be mildly accretive to flat in 2024 due to integration costs, so the $9 EPS guidance remains largely unchanged.

Share Buybacks and 2026 Outlook
Q: What's the plan for share buybacks and mid-cycle EPS?
A: They plan to complete the remaining $400 million in share buybacks before mid-2024 and feel confident about reaching over $11 EPS by 2026, despite some timing delays in CapEx.

Segment Drivers of EPS Decline
Q: Which segments contribute most to lower 2024 EPS?
A: The processing segment accounts for about 80% of the year-over-year variance, with refined specialty oils down by a couple of hundred million, and sugar also expected to decline due to lower ethanol prices in Brazil.

Regional Crush Margin Outlook
Q: How will regional crush margins impact results?
A: Soy crush margins are expected to soften globally except in Argentina, which should improve as production doubles. North America may see weaker margins in Q2 and Q3 but better in Q4 with the new crop.

Upside Opportunities to $9 EPS Guidance
Q: Where might you see upside to the $9 EPS guidance?
A: Upside could come from stronger demand in China, weather-related supply disruptions, increased biofuel demand, and favorable policy changes affecting supply and demand balances.

Biofuel Demand and Crush Capacity
Q: What's the outlook for renewable diesel demand?
A: Renewable diesel capacity is growing, with another 1.4 billion gallons coming online in the first half. Demand continues to increase globally, but the market balance is complex due to policy changes and feedstock availability.

Capital Allocation and CapEx Returns
Q: How are you allocating capital amid CapEx and M&A?
A: Most growth projects are underway and expected to contribute in 2026, targeting mid-teens returns. They're pursuing smaller bolt-on M&A opportunities and remain committed to their CapEx plans.

Cost Structure and Efficiency
Q: How does your cost structure compare to competitors?
A: Despite inflation, they believe they're among the most efficient in the industry, focusing on improving plant efficiencies to offset rising costs.

Guidance Phasing and Crop Expectations
Q: How will earnings phase throughout the year?
A: Earnings are expected to be balanced, with roughly 50% in each half. A larger U.S. crop in the back half could improve the outlook, assuming a good growing season.

Visibility into Business Segments
Q: Where do you have the most and least visibility?
A: They have the most visibility in Q1; beyond that, visibility reduces due to limited liquidity and balanced markets.

Merchandising Outlook
Q: Will merchandising be below normalized levels?
A: Merchandising is expected to be slightly down in 2024 versus 2023 and may be below baseline models due to lower visibility and market uncertainties.

Processing Segment Costs and Inflation
Q: How have processing costs evolved with new capacity?
A: Energy prices have decreased, lowering variable costs, especially in Europe. They've focused on efficiency improvements to offset natural inflation.

Refined Oils Segment Strategy
Q: Are you gaining an edge in refined oils?
A: They've improved refinery operations, setting records in Q4 for volume and capacity utilization, and are investing in facilities with multi-oil capabilities to meet demand, mainly focusing on food applications.

Baseline EPS Assumptions vs. Current Environment
Q: How does current environment compare to $8.50 baseline EPS?
A: Margin assumptions for 2024 are slightly better than baseline, especially in soft seeds. Downsides include higher interest expenses and tax rates, with merchandising forecasted lower but refined specialty oils higher.

Share Repurchase Cadence
Q: Will share repurchases be more balanced this year?
A: They plan to complete the remaining $400 million in share buybacks by midyear, maintaining a steady pace regardless of Viterra's closing timing.

Internal Focus Amid Market Changes
Q: How does internal focus change in a different backdrop?
A: Management remains focused on efficiency and agility, aiming to operate effectively regardless of the market cycle by controlling what they can and serving customers across the value chain.

Potential Upside from Crush Margin Improvement
Q: Could higher crush margins improve the outlook?
A: If factors like weather, demand rebound, and policy changes positively affect crush margins, the outlook could improve beyond current forward curves.

Impact of Russia and Ukraine on Volumes
Q: How have Russia and Ukraine affected volumes?
A: Margins are slightly higher than baseline, but volumes are slightly lower due to exiting Russia and reduced volumes in Ukraine because of the ongoing war.