Bunge Global (BG)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Bunge Beats Q4 on Segment Strength, But FY26 Guidance Disappoints

February 4, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG) delivered a solid Q4 2025 beat with adjusted EPS of $1.99 versus consensus of $1.82 (+9.3%), driven by a 38% YoY surge in adjusted segment EBIT to $756 million . However, the stock's initial rally moderated in aftermarket trading as investors digested FY 2026 guidance of $7.50-$8.00, which came in 11-16% below Street expectations of $8.94 .

The quarter marked the second full period with Viterra fully integrated, and management highlighted that the company is now "operating as one Bunge" and beginning to deliver both cost and commercial synergies .

Did Bunge Beat Earnings?

Q4 2025 Results:

Full-Year 2025 Results:

Despite the EPS beat, FY 2025 adjusted EPS declined 17.6% YoY, reflecting a "less volatility from a more balanced supply and demand environment as well as trade & biofuel policy uncertainty" .

Segment Performance: Viterra Synergies Showing

All four segments delivered strong YoY growth in Q4 2025, demonstrating the scale benefits from the Viterra acquisition:

Softseed Processing was the standout performer with EBIT nearly tripling YoY, driven by expanded crushing capacity from Viterra's canola/rapeseed operations in Europe and Canada .

Volume Highlights:

• Soybeans crushed: 11.46M MT (+19% YoY)
• Softseeds crushed: 3.48M MT (+44% YoY)
• Grain merchandised: 26.2M MT (+214% YoY)

The massive grain merchandising volume increase reflects Viterra's extensive grain origination and trading network now fully consolidated.

What Did Management Guide?

This is where the quarter gets complicated. Despite the Q4 beat, management issued FY 2026 guidance that disappointed:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

Management attributed the cautious guidance to "the current margin and macro environment and forward curves" . The agricultural commodities sector continues to face compressed processing margins as global supply chains normalize post-pandemic.

Earnings Cadence: Heavy Back-Half Loading

A critical detail from the Q&A: management expects an unusually back-loaded year. CFO John Neppl provided specific quarterly phasing :

Major Street disconnect: The CFO noted that Street consensus for Q1 2026 was around $1.76 - more than double their implied ~$0.80 . This suggests significant near-term estimate revisions are likely.

"Q1's a really light quarter. We're a much bigger company, but a lot of uncertainty... very spot customers on both ends. Farmers are spot, our customers are very spot, and it just creates less opportunity for us."

FY 2026 Segment EBIT Breakdown

Management provided a rare full-year segment allocation :

Key concern: The midpoint of FY 2026 guidance ($7.75) implies no EPS growth from FY 2025's $7.57, despite a full year of Viterra synergies.

How Did the Stock React?

Bunge shares rallied initially on the earnings beat but gave back gains as guidance concerns emerged:

Valuation Context:

• Current price: $116.88 (regular), $114.49 (aftermarket)
• 52-week range: $67.40 - $119.58
• Price vs. 50-day MA ($98.83): +18.3% above
• Price vs. 200-day MA ($86.79): +34.7% above
• Market Cap: $22.6B

The stock is trading near 52-week highs, supported by the successful Viterra integration, but the aftermarket pullback to $114.49 reflects investor concern over the below-consensus FY 2026 guidance and heavily back-loaded earnings cadence.

Viterra Synergies: Ahead of Schedule

Management provided detailed synergy updates that show integration is progressing faster than planned :

"We're feeling very good about where we are. We're estimating about $190 million of realized synergies in 2026, which is actually ahead of schedule."

Commercial synergies are still developing but management highlighted early wins:

• Higher percentage of direct farm purchases (better margins, quality control)
• New destination markets developed for sunmeal and canola meal
• Better ocean freight coordination from combined platform

RVO and Biofuel Policy: The Big Unknown

The Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) was a central theme on the call. Management is not assuming any RVO upside in guidance :

Key policy dynamics discussed:

• RVO range expected: 5.2-5.6 billion gallons
• Half-RIN concept (for imported feedstocks): Likely delayed to 2027
• Management hopes for clarity before March 10 Investor Day

"We believe the curves do not properly reflect what opportunities should develop during the year once the policy is finalized."

Upside catalyst: If RVO lands at 5.6B gallons, CFO suggested crush margins and soybean oil demand could tighten "very quickly" .

SAF opportunity: Bunge became the first company to certify soybeans for use in Sustainable Aviation Fuel under CORSIA Plus protocol - a nascent but potentially "massive" demand driver not baked into guidance .

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Improved:

• Segment EBIT acceleration: Q3 2025 saw $711M segment EBIT; Q4 delivered $756M (+6% sequential)
• Softseed crushing volumes continue ramping post-Viterra
• Integration progressing - "operating as one Bunge"
• Discretionary cash flow solid at $1.25B for FY 2025
• Cost synergies running ahead of schedule

Deteriorated:

• Corporate costs elevated: Adjusted Corporate EBIT was -$134M in Q4 vs -$101M prior year
• Returns trending lower: AROIC fell to 8.1% vs 12.6% prior year
• ROIC compressed to 6.9% vs 10.1% prior year
• Forward guidance below expectations
• Share buybacks slowed: $6M in Q4 vs $545M in Q3

Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet

Bunge maintains a disciplined capital allocation framework despite the Viterra-driven increase in leverage:

FY 2025 Cash Deployment:

Leverage Position:

• Net Debt: $12.1B
• Adjusted Leverage Ratio: 1.9x
• Net Debt ex-RMI: $0.7B
• Credit Ratings: A-/Baa1/BBB+

Management emphasized that the "vast majority of net debt finances readily marketable inventory (RMI)" , which expands and contracts with commodity price cycles and seasonal patterns.

Liquidity:

• Committed credit facilities: $9.7B
• Cash & marketable securities: ~$2.0B
• Commercial paper outstanding: ~$0.3B

Historical EPS Trend

The normalized earnings environment is evident in the multi-year trend:

The 2021-2023 period benefited from unprecedented commodity volatility and processing margins. The current environment represents a return to more normalized earnings, though still above pre-2020 levels.

Q&A Highlights

The analyst Q&A surfaced several important details not in prepared remarks:

On potential for 2022-23 style margins returning (Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research):

"If we can get a good sun crop, that should be improvements in the Black Sea in Europe for sun crushing... We haven't really seen any meaningful global disruption, whether it's weather or geopolitical, for a bit. A weather event could really have a big impact."

On Viterra operational improvements (Andrew Strelzik, BMO): Management confirmed they see similar opportunity to transform Viterra's earnings power as they did with legacy Bunge post-2019: best practices sharing, capital allocation from the center, unified rewards programs, and integrated risk culture .

On guidance range drivers (Matthew Blair, TPH):

"When you get to the merchandising and milling side, there are no forward curves. And so, what the environment's gonna be like... volatility, disruption, global demand shifts, trade policy changes, all those things create opportunity on the merchandising side that it's really hard to model in."

On share buybacks (Manav Gupta, UBS): Committed to completing remaining buyback program "fairly soon." Longer-term: "We definitely see an opportunity to make share buyback a bigger part of our capital allocation process" with more details at March 10 Investor Day .

Closing Remarks

Management struck a confident tone in their closing remarks, emphasizing:

"We've reshaped this company into a more agile, diversified, and resilient Bunge. We've overcome multiple obstacles, including geopolitical shifts that continue to reshape global trade flows... With the addition of Viterra, we now have greater reach across origins and destinations, deeper insight into global flows, and more capability and optionality to serve customers and manage risk."

The Viterra integration appears on track, but the key question remains whether synergy realization can offset the margin headwinds in the core processing business.

Key Takeaways

1. Beat on earnings: Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.99 topped consensus of $1.82 by 9.3%
2. Segment strength: All four segments grew EBIT YoY, with Softseed +179% the standout
3. Viterra synergies ahead of schedule: $190M expected in 2026 vs $175M original target
4. Guidance disappoints: FY 2026 guide of $7.50-$8.00 is 11-16% below Street at $8.94
5. Heavily back-loaded year: 30/70 H1/H2 split; Q1 implied at ~$0.80 vs Street ~$1.76
6. RVO is the swing factor: No upside assumed; 5.2-5.6B gallons could be major catalyst
7. Balance sheet solid: 1.9x leverage ratio, strong liquidity, investment-grade ratings
8. Investor Day March 10: More details on synergies, capital allocation, long-term outlook

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Related: Bunge Company Profile | Q3 2025 Earnings | Earnings Call Transcript