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    Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$3472.91Last close (May 2, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$3700.00Open (May 3, 2024)
    Price Change
    $227.09(+6.54%)
    • Booking Holdings is experiencing strong growth in direct bookings, now accounting for low 60% range of B2C business. This shift reduces dependence on paid marketing channels, improves margins, and enhances customer loyalty.
    • The company is rapidly expanding its alternative accommodations offering, now being two-thirds the size of the largest player in the space and growing faster over most of the last eight quarters. Combining traditional and alternative accommodations on one platform provides a competitive advantage and meets travelers' diverse needs.
    • Booking Holdings possesses a strategic advantage in Generative AI, leveraging proprietary data from extensive customer and partner interactions. This positions the company to enhance customer experience, improve operational efficiency, and differentiate itself from competitors.
    • Increased Fixed Operating Expenses: Booking Holdings expects fixed operating expenses to grow faster than revenue in the second quarter, due to continued investments in the business, particularly in new tech platforms. They acknowledge that fixed expense growth is elevated and are targeting a much lower OpEx growth level in 2025. ,
    • Limited Inventory in Key Markets: The company admits it does not have enough of certain types of accommodations in certain areas, especially high-end homes in the U.S. This limitation in inventory may constrain growth in key markets where competitors may have more offerings. ,
    • Slow Progress in Strategic Initiatives: Connected transactions represent only a high single-digit percentage of Booking.com's total transactions, indicating that the connected trip vision is still in early stages. Additionally, the attractions offering has yet to significantly contribute to results, suggesting that key growth drivers may take longer to impact financial performance. ,
    1. Guidance and Booking Trends
      Q: How have changes in booking windows and other factors affected your second quarter guidance?
      A: Ewout explained that they expect a less expanded booking window in Q2, as some room nights were pulled forward into Q1 due to earlier bookings. They anticipate more impact from the Middle East and a slight benefit from Easter in Q2. Despite quarterly 'noise', the combined first-half results are strong and consistent with the full-year guidance. Comps are tougher in Q1 and Q2, but they expect a benefit during the course of 2024.

    2. Regional Growth and U.S. Performance
      Q: Can you update us on your regional mix and U.S. growth relative to other markets?
      A: Ewout reported that in Q1, Europe grew high single digits, exceeding expectations. Asia grew mid-teens, with strong performance in China, Japan, Korea, India, and Indonesia. The U.S. grew low single digits, but they believe they have outperformed the market. Glenn emphasized their focus on growing in the U.S., mentioning significant efforts leading to improved performance compared to pre-pandemic numbers. They see the U.S. as a growth market opportunity.

    3. Marketing ROI and Connected Trips
      Q: Why is ROI higher in paid marketing channels, and what percentage of transactions are connected trips?
      A: Glenn stated that they are pleased with their marketing programs, viewing them holistically to optimize spending. They increase investment where it works and pull back where it doesn't. Ewout mentioned that connected trips represent high single digits percentage of total transactions and are growing rapidly. Delivering more value leads to higher loyalty and repeat customers buying across multiple verticals.

    4. Structural Growth Opportunities
      Q: Where can you invest to drive faster revenue growth above expectations?
      A: Ewout is optimistic about the company's ability to grow faster than GDP due to the shift from offline to online bookings and consumers spending more on experiences. He highlights underestimated areas like Direct bookings, now in the low 60% range, Alternative Accommodations, where they are two-thirds the size of the largest player and growing faster, and the strategic advantage in Generative AI due to their rich data.

    5. ADR Trends and Expectations
      Q: Can you comment on ADR by region and expectations for 2024?
      A: Glenn noted that in Q1, ADRs were up in Europe, and flat in North America and Asia, resulting in a 1% overall growth in ADRs on a constant currency basis. They feel pleased about the summer, with healthy growth in bookings for travel scheduled during that season.

    6. Alternative Accommodations Growth
      Q: How is your alternative accommodations supply developing, and what advantage does offering both traditional and alternative accommodations provide?
      A: Ewout believes that combining both traditional and alternative accommodations is a unique proposition, as many consumers look for both and may switch between them. Glenn mentioned that while they have a complete range of inventory, they need more of certain types, especially high-end homes in areas like the New York metropolitan area. They see this as an opportunity to grow their supply.

    7. Attractions Offering and Connected Trip
      Q: Can you discuss your investments in attractions and how the connected trip offering helps?
      A: Glenn explained that attractions are mostly supplied through third parties like Viator and Klook. They have been prioritizing flights and ground transportation but see attractions as part of the overall connected trip opportunity. Since attractions are often booked closer to the trip date, increased use of their app allows them to engage travelers in-destination.

    8. AI and Technology Differentiation
      Q: What will be the largest unlock to differentiate and drive growth in the U.S.?
      A: Glenn believes that AI and technology, particularly Generative AI, can be transformational in improving travel planning. They are investing in these areas to build capabilities that will make a significant difference over time.

    9. Big Events Impact on Demand
      Q: How will big events like the Olympics in Europe affect travel demand?
      A: Glenn stated that it's difficult to predict the impact of events like the Olympics, and they prefer not to focus too much on individual events. Instead, they concentrate on long-term growth by increasing value, bringing in more customers and suppliers.

    10. Unit Economics in U.S. vs. Europe
      Q: How do the unit economics of your U.S. accommodations business compare to Europe?
      A: Glenn declined to provide specific details on unit economics due to competitive reasons and does not disclose breakdowns beyond regional growth rates.