Blue Bird Corp (BLBD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q1 FY2025 delivered resilient profitability despite lower EV mix: Revenue $313.9M, diluted EPS $0.86, Adjusted EBITDA $45.8M (14.6% margin), 2,130 units sold . Management said results “beat first quarter guidance” and reaffirmed FY2025 targets .
• Mix and cost drivers: Revenue decreased 1.2% YoY on less EV mix and product/customer mix; gross margin eased ~80 bps YoY to 19.2% given the USW labor agreement now fully in effect; other income benefited from ~$2.6M emission credits .
• Guidance maintained; risk balanced by levers: FY2025 revenue $1.4–$1.5B, Adj. EBITDA $185–$215M (midpoint unchanged at $200M), Adj. FCF $40–$60M reaffirmed; EV unit target set at ~1,000 with funded backlog prioritization; company prepared to pass through potential tariffs .
• Catalysts to watch: 2H EV deliveries from EPA Rounds 2–3; court memo enabling continued disbursements; tariff scope/timing and pass-through; DOE-funded plant expansion; CEO transition to John Wyskiel on Feb 17, 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Sustained margin power on core ICE business: Adj. EBITDA margin 14.6% with 94% ICE mix; CEO: “near record profit in the first quarter… exceptional 14.6% Adj. EBITDA margin” .
• Order backlog and pricing remain strong: ~4,400 units at quarter-end supports pricing and stability; ICE pricing ~6% higher YoY; average revenue per unit $135k despite lower EV mix .
• EV commercialization progress and cash generation: 132 EV units delivered; ~1,000 EVs sold or in backlog position as of late January; Adj. FCF $21.8M; record liquidity ~$280M .

What Went Wrong

• YoY top-line softness from mix: Revenue down $3.8M YoY primarily on lower EV volumes and product/customer mix; bus ASP down ~1.9% YoY to $135k .
• Margin headwinds from labor: Gross margin 19.2%, ~80 bps below prior year due to USW contract now fully effective .
• Policy/tariff uncertainties: Temporary pause to EPA disbursements triggered order/delivery timing risk (later clarified by EPA CFO memo), and potential 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico (10% on China) add COGS uncertainty (though company plans pass-through) .

Financial Results

Core metrics vs. prior quarters

Notes: YoY Q1 revenue -1.2% from $317.7M to $313.9M; net income up to $28.7M on emission credits in OI&E .

Segment mix (Bus vs. Parts)

Operating & KPI snapshot

Actual vs. Street (S&P Global) – Q1 FY2025

S&P Global consensus was unavailable at the time of query; we could not retrieve estimates due to a vendor limit. Management stated Q1 “beat first quarter guidance” .

Guidance Changes

Management also noted widening lower-end quarterly Adj. EBITDA ranges for Q3/Q4 due to timing risk from tariffs/EPA, while maintaining full-year midpoint .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Near record profit in the first quarter… Unit sales were about the same as last year… we delivered an exceptional 14.6% Adj. EBITDA margin… This result demonstrates the very strong earnings power of our base business” – Phil Horlock, CEO .
• “Second highest ever Q1 Adj. EBITDA… reaffirming FY2025 guidance for Net Revenue $1.4–$1.5B, Adj. EBITDA $185–$215M, Adj. FCF $40–$60M” – Razvan Radulescu, CFO .
• On EV funding: “EPA CFO memorandum… disbursement of funds will continue… good news for Blue Bird as customers will now start receiving federal funding again” .
• On tariffs: “We would initiate a 5% price increase on all non-EV bus orders… pass-through to end customer” .

Q&A Highlights

• Path to high-end EBITDA: Upper range to $215M achievable with stronger EV volumes and backlog/pricing tailwinds; midpoint maintained at $200M .
• Tariff pass-through: Company prepared to apply 5% surcharge to offset proposed tariffs; dealer network aligned; analogy to “sales tax” pass-through .
• EV mix cadence: ~6% in Q1; 2H ramp envisaged at 200/300/400 per Q2–Q4 to hit ~1,000 FY target .
• Inventory build: Pre-bought EV components to stabilize supply; some readiness for tariff risk; inventory rose sequentially .
• Capital returns: Buyback pacing ~$10M per open trading window; cumulative $20M in last six months with $40M authorization remaining .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus (revenue, EPS, EBITDA) for Q1 FY2025 was unavailable at the time of query due to a vendor limit; therefore, we cannot present beats/misses vs. Street. Management indicated Q1 results beat company guidance .
• Areas where Street may adjust: 1) Lower FY2025 EV unit assumption from ~1,150 (Nov) to ~1,000, implying potential mix/ASP impact ; 2) Full-year Adj. EBITDA range widened to $185–$215M (midpoint unchanged), reflecting timing risks from tariffs/funding, but also upside scenarios on EV volume .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Margin resilience is the story: 14–15% Adj. EBITDA margins are holding even at >90% ICE mix, de-risking the model from near-term EV volatility .
• Policy watch but mitigated: EPA disbursements continue; Blue Bird prioritizes funded EVs and can shift mix to propane (lowest TCO) if needed; tariff risk largely pass-through .
• Backlog supports pricing and visibility: ~4,400 units at Q1-end underpin stable volumes/pricing; ICE prices up ~6% YoY .
• 2H setup: EV deliveries expected to accelerate as infrastructure aligns and funding flows; list price reduced $25k as costs glide lower to drive adoption .
• Balance sheet and cash: Q1 Adj. FCF $21.8M; cash $136M; record liquidity ~$280M; ongoing buybacks ($10M in Q1) provide support .
• Capacity-led growth optionality: DOE-backed plant expansion to 14k one-shift capacity and new commercial chassis platforms broaden TAM from 2026 onward .
• Leadership transition: New CEO John Wyskiel (ex-Magna) starts Feb 17; operational focus likely remains on execution and profitable growth .

All figures and statements are sourced from company filings/press releases/earnings calls as cited.

Citations:

• Q1 FY2025 8-K and press release:
• Q1 FY2025 earnings call:
• Q4 FY2024 press release and call:
• Q3 FY2024 press release and call:
• CEO transition PR (Jan 22, 2025):
• Commercial chassis PR (Feb 27, 2025):