Bank of Hawaii - Earnings Call - Q4 2018

Transcript

Speaker 0

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Bank of Hawaii Corporation Fourth Quarter twenty eighteen Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. I would now like to introduce your host for this conference call, Ms. Cindy Warwick.

You may begin, ma'am.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review the financial results for the 2018. Joining me today is our Chairman, President and CEO, Peter Ho our Chief Financial Officer, Dean Shigemura and our Chief Risk Officer, Mary Sellers. Before we get started, let me remind you that today's conference call will contain some forward looking statements.

And while we believe our assumptions are reasonable, there are a variety of reasons that the actual results may differ materially from those projected. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Peter Ho.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you, Cindy. Good morning, everyone. Happy New Year, and thanks for joining us today. 2018 was another good year for Bank of Hawaii.

We were pleased with our financial results. Our margin expanded and our liquidity and capital levels remain robust. Credit statistics were pristine in 2018. We have great confidence in the credit construction of our loan portfolios at present and into the future. Assets, loans and deposits all grew during the year, with total assets finishing the year at $17,100,000,000 Earnings per share increased by 21% to $5.23 Loan growth was 6.7% in 2018 with good growth in both our commercial and consumer portfolios.

Deposits grew 1% in 2018 and finished the year at $15,000,000,000 During the year, we continued with our stated plan to reduce higher cost local public deposits. Excluding public deposits, our combined commercial and consumer deposits increased 2.8% from last year. We're especially heartened by this performance given our cost of deposit and deposit beta positions, which are of the best in the industry as well as our marketplace. Now let me ask Dean to provide you with some additional details on our financial performance for the fourth quarter and our outlook for 2019. Mary will then comment on our credit quality.

Dean?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Peter. Net income for the fourth quarter was $53,900,000 or $1.3 per share compared to $56,900,000 or $1.36 per share in the third quarter and $43,000,000 or $1.01 per share in the 2017. Our return on assets during the fourth quarter was 1.26%, the return on equity was 17.05% and our efficiency ratio was 57.75. The decrease compared with the previous quarter was due to a number of unusual expense items during the fourth quarter and the impact of the sale of our credit card portfolio. Our net interest margin in the fourth quarter was 3.1%, up three basis points from the third quarter and up 12 basis points from the 2017.

Net interest income on a reported basis in the fourth quarter increased to $124,000,000 up $122,900,000 from the previous quarter and $118,800,000 in the 2017. The credit card portfolio sale negatively affected our fourth quarter margin by approximately two basis points. Our deposit beta during the fourth quarter was of 2018 was 32 percent compared with 20% in the previous quarter. For 2019, we expect our net interest margin will continue to increase modestly, up two to three basis points each quarter. As Mary will discuss later, we recorded a credit provision of $2,000,000 this quarter.

Noninterest income totaled $42,100,000 in the 2018 compared with $41,500,000 in the previous quarter and $41,900,000 in the 2017. Noninterest income is beginning to stabilize. And for 2019, we expect it will remain at approximately $42,000,000 per quarter. Noninterest Noninterest expenses in the 2018 dollars were particularly noisy and unusual for us. Noninterest expenses totaled $95,100,000 in the 2018 compared with $90,500,000 in the previous quarter and $92,300,000 in the 2017.

Non interest expenses in the 2018 included a true up of $1,700,000 for medical expenses, primarily related to a single claim, charges of $1,300,000 in legal and operational matters and severance of $1,100,000 There were no significant items in the third quarter expenses. Noninterest expenses in the 2017 included onetime employee bonuses totaling $2,200,000 Adjusted for these items, noninterest expenses were up 2% compared with the 2017 and up 1% from the previous quarter. Adjusting for unusual and nonrecurring items, noninterest expenses for 2018 were $365,000,000 or 2% above 2017 noninterest expenses. For 2019, we expect noninterest expenses to be up 2% to 3% above our adjusted 2018 expenses of $365,000,000 The effective tax rate for the full year of 2018 was 18.73% compared with 31.11 during 2017 as a result of tax reform. Currently, we expect the effective tax rate for 2019 to be between 1921%.

As a result of continued strong loan growth during the quarter, our investment portfolio decreased to $5,500,000,000 at the end of the fourth quarter. Premium amortization during the quarter was $8,100,000 down from $8,700,000 in the previous quarter and $10,100,000 in the 2017. We purchased a total of 39,500,000 in securities during the quarter, and the reinvestment differential was a positive 145 basis points. The duration of the available for sale portfolio was two point three four years at the end of the 2018. The held to maturity portfolio duration was three point nine eight years, and the duration for the total portfolio was three point three seven years.

Our shareholders' equity was $1,270,000,000 at the end of the fourth quarter, up from $1,250,000,000 at the end of the previous quarter and up from $1,230,000,000 at the end of the '17. At the end of the fourth quarter, our Tier one capital ratio was 13.07%, and our Tier one leverage ratio was 7.6. During the fourth quarter, we paid out $25,900,000 or 48% of net income and dividends and repurchased 325,400 shares of common stock for a total of $24,900,000 We repurchased an additional 178,000 shares between January 2 and January 25 at a total cost of $12,900,000 Also, our Board declared a dividend of $0.62 per share for the 2019 and increased the share repurchase authorization by an additional $130,000,000 And finally, our capital management strategy going forward will remain consistent with our current strategy, which is to pay out approximately 50% of net income and dividends to maintain adequate capital to support our business growth with a minimum Tier one leverage ratio of 7% with the remainder available for share repurchases. Now I'll turn the call over to Mary Sellers.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Dean. Asset quality remained strong 18 given Hawaii's healthy economic conditions and our continued focus on our customers in our core markets coupled with our continued disciplined approach to underwriting and portfolio management. Net charge offs for the full year of 2018 totaled $14,100,000 or 0.14% of total average loans and leases. This compares with net charge offs of 13,800,000.0 or 0.15 of total average loans and leases in 2017. Adjusting out the credit card portfolio, net charge offs for the full year of 2018 would have totaled $10,500,000 or 0.1%, down from $10,800,000 or 0.12% in 2017.

Net charge offs for the fourth quarter totaled $4,000,000 or 0.15% annualized of total average loans and leases outstanding compared with $3,300,000 or 0.13% annualized in the 2018 and $3,800,000 or 0.15% annualized in the 2017. Again, adjusting out the credit card portfolio, net charge offs for the fourth quarter would have totaled $3,100,000 or 0.12 percent annualized compared with $2,500,000 or 0.1% annualized in the 2018 and $3,100,000 or 0.13% annualized in the 2017. At the end of the year, nonperforming assets totaled $12,900,000 or 12 basis points, down $868,000 or one basis point from the third quarter and down $3,200,000 or four basis points year over year. Loans past due ninety days or more and still accruing interest totaled $6,600,000 down $1,500,000 for the linked period and $580,000 from the same period last year. And restructured loans not included in nonaccrual loans or loans past due ninety days or more totaled $48,700,000 down $731,000 from the prior quarter and down $6,900,000 year over year.

At the end of 2018, residential real estate loans accounted for $20,000,000 of the total. At the end of 4Q twenty eighteen, the allowance for loan and lease losses was $106,700,000 down $2,000,000 from the 2018, driven off the sale of the credit card portfolio. The ratio of the allowance to total loans was 1.02, down four basis points from the third quarter and down eight basis points from the 2017. This is reflective of the current portfolio mix, quality as well as the strength in our economy. The reserve for unfunded commitments was $6,800,000 at the end of the year, unchanged from the 2018 and the 2017.

I'll now turn the call back to Peter.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mary. The Hawaii economy continues to perform well due to an active construction pipeline, the continued strength of our tourism industry and a strong housing market. Statewide unemployment rate was 2.5% in December and remains very low compared to the unemployment rate of 3.9% nationally. Our visitor industry continues to be strong with year to date growth in 2018 exceeding the record levels of last year. For the first eleven months of 2018, total visitor arrivals increased 6.1% and visitor spending increased 8% compared to the same period in 2017.

All four larger Hawaiian Islands had growth in visitor spending during the first eleven months of 2018, including the Big Island Of Hawaii, despite a slight decline in visitor arrivals due to the volcanic activity of last year. Real estate also continued to remain robust during 2018. Median sales prices on Oahu continued to increase during the year, although the volume of sales were down compared to 2017. Single family home sales on Oahu declined 7.7% in 2018 and condo sales were down 2.5%. The median sales price of a single family home in 2018 increased by 4.6% and the median sales price of a condominium increased 3.7% compared with 2017.

Months of inventory at the end of the year were two point eight months for single family homes and two point nine months for condominiums. Thanks again for joining us today and now we'd be happy to respond to your questions.

Speaker 0

Our first question comes from Jeff Rulis with D. A. Davidson.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning. Hey, Jeff. Peter, just looking at the consumer segment and the net production pretty strong, even with the credit card sale there. Guess any color on what's occurring within that segment?

Yes, I'll leave it at that. Thanks.

Speaker 2

You're talking on loan side, Jeff?

Speaker 5

Correct. Yes, okay.

Speaker 2

Yes, mean, it was a good year, both commercial as well as consumer. I would say that the Hawaiian consumer remains in a pretty good position. We saw continued good performance down the indirect line. We had good performance down the installment loan side. So consumption seems to be in a good space here.

I would say that both resi and HECL were they were good markets for us. I think interest rates dampened volumes a bit. A lot of our production is moving to for sale or purchase activity on the resi side as refi activity has slowed down a bit. So it's we're faced with a little tighter aggregate growth there and it's an awfully competitive space. So I would say we were pleased with the growth there, but remain a bit cautious as we look forward on what 2019 holds for us.

Speaker 5

How about thoughts on the commercial side in 2019?

Speaker 2

Yes. Commercial is a little bit to the other direction. Commercial, frankly, a nice quarter, Q4, up 2.1% linked, just under 6% for the year. So seeing a bit of a revival in commercial activity. That performance on the linked basis was despite one of our heavier payoff quarters in Q4, about 38% of our payoffs or pay downs occurred in our C and I portfolio for the quarter and about 30% for the commercial mortgage book.

So despite that somewhat heavier payoff activity, still good performance. And I'm hoping to see that push through into 2019. So if you take both sides together, Jeff, I think if we could hit the same level of aggregate loan growth in 2019 that we did in 2018, we consider that a pretty reasonable year's work.

Speaker 5

Got it. Okay. And one last one on Dean, you mentioned expectations for fee income in 2019. If I were to get a little more specific, would that assume if we're kind of flattish also the mortgage banking line is in the range of kind of what we've seen? Is that would you say that's correct?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think they've kind of been hovering around that $2,100,000 per quarter kind of income range. I think that's kind of where we expect them to be in this year.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Aaron Deer with Sandler O'Neill. Hey, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Aaron.

Speaker 6

Just following up The construction as always was down a bit in the quarter. I'm guessing that that reflected just completions on various projects. But you mentioned in your commentary that construction that the pipeline is looking strong. I'm just wondering if what product types you're seeing that in and is that product types that you expect to be participating in?

Speaker 2

Yes, Aaron, it's well, civil side has been pretty consistent for a couple of years now, several years now actually. And I think we're going to continue to see that off into this year, perhaps the next. So that's somewhat the first pillar. On the housing development side, still a ways off on single family. I think there's going to be a lag before we hit that opportunity.

But the phase that I think is surprising us a bit is the vertical after taking a bit of a pause post the run up in ultra high end down along the Kakaako area. We're seeing a lot of activity around more mid market types of vertical condo development, some apartment. So we've got a bit of a lag in our numbers right now. But I would say I'm probably more optimistic around that particular segment for 2019 and 2020 than I had been called a year ago.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's encouraging. And then, Dean, maybe with looking at the securities book over the past year, you've been letting that kind of bleed a little bit lower. As you look out at the current rate environment and what the deposit flows look like, what's your expectations for your plans for the securities book in the year ahead?

Speaker 3

Well, I think we do depending on our deposit growth, but we do have opportunities to kind of maybe stabilize a bit on the balances here. In terms of duration, kind of where we are right now is kind of in the mid-three years is what we're looking at, maybe could be a tad higher, but generally in that same area.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then just a quick one on tax outlook. You gave the guidance 2019 to 2021. Just curious, if I recall in past years, we've seen a little bit of variance in the individual quarters based on, I'm guessing, compensation benefits. Is there any particular quarters you expect to see that in the year ahead?

Speaker 3

Well, generally, what drives the variance, the volatility are the discrete items. And to the extent that we have these one off things that come through in a particular quarter, it could vary. But I would say the first quarter is could be the low point. But beyond that, I think right now, it's kind of stable throughout the year, pending any kind of discrete items that come through.

Speaker 6

Okay. And just one last one, just on the deposit environment. In past quarters, you've commented that there's been some aggressive pricing by some of your competitors on deposits, particularly on the public funds where you guys have backed off from. Commentary from other banks in other parts of the country so far this earnings season have suggested that some of those pressures have abated. Are you also seeing that in the Hawaii market where maybe there's a little bit less pricing competition?

Speaker 2

Yes, would say that there is some similarity to those statements, Aaron, here in

Speaker 5

this Okay, great.

Speaker 0

That's

Speaker 6

great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 5

Yes. Our

Speaker 0

next question comes from Jackie Bohlen with KBW.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning everyone.

Speaker 5

Hi, Jackie.

Speaker 7

Sticking with the public funds, Peter, are those at a level where you're comfortable now or do you expect additional declines in 2019?

Speaker 2

It really is a function of what kind of pricing pops up. I mean, recently, kind of to the last question, we've seen some relief in pricing in that segment. To the extent that that's the case, Jackie, I think we are close to declaring victory on kind of public deposit levels, which would be great because I think it'll give us the opportunity to show through on the good work happening on the consumer and commercial front. But if those segments get if that segment gets hot again, then we'll see. May still have in that environment another couple of $100,000,000 or sort of runoff.

But for now, we're reasonably optimistic in that particular book of business.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then with regards to the guidance for two to three basis points of quarterly NIM expansion in 2019, what rate outlook does that assume?

Speaker 3

That assumes a bit higher on the long end. It's a little bit steeper curve. So the way I would look at it is, if we stay relatively flat, it would obviously be on the lower end. If we steepen out from here on the curve, it would be on the upper end of that guidance.

Speaker 7

Okay. And are there any additional Fed fund increases embedded in that? Or is it more a function of the steepness of the curve that drives the guidance?

Speaker 3

We had one kind of midyear.

Speaker 8

Okay.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Laurie Hunsinger with Compass Point.

Speaker 8

Yes. Hi, thanks. Good morning. Hi Laurie. Just go back over for public deposits for a moment, do you have the amount that's the public time of the $1,200,000,000

Speaker 2

Our public time?

Speaker 8

Yes.

Speaker 2

As of quarter end was $6.29 down from $8.38 a year ago.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just on margin, can you help us think about where you have premium amortization modeled in that guide?

Speaker 3

Well, it's probably given where rates have moved recently, they might tick up a little bit here. Back in the fourth quarter, even though rates at the end of the quarter had dipped down, for most of the quarter, it was a little bit higher. So we could see premium amortization tick up a little bit, but I wouldn't expect it to be much higher than what we had in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 8

The 8.1%, okay. So again, just thinking about that, if we look linked quarter, we strip out that premium am, your core margin widened only a basis point plus the two basis points on credit card, so taking us to three. And if we see premium am uptick a little bit, I mean, we could be at the higher end of your guidance potentially.

Speaker 3

Potentially.

Speaker 8

Okay. Okay. And then credit, and certainly your credit is very pristine. But Mary, can you just hit the highlights on the commercial real estate? There was a slight uptick there in non performers.

The non performers sitting at $2,000,000 up from $650,000 last quarter. What that was and any details there?

Speaker 4

It was just a number of smaller real estate loans for owner occupants within our mortgage portfolio, nothing material.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just directionally, if we look at your loan loss provision, it didn't cover charge offs, even stripping out the credit card book, the $2,000,000 didn't cover the $3,100,000 of total charge offs. How should we be thinking about that going forward?

Speaker 4

Well, think, we're well positioned as we've talked about from credit metrics and quality within our portfolio. In absolute terms, in terms of charge offs, as we've expanded the balance sheet, I would expect some dollar increases within actual charge offs, but very modest. And really the provision will be a function then of that performance along with growth in the segments that we see that growth in as well as the economic outlook.

Speaker 8

Okay. But again, just to clarify, so will we see your loan loss provision match your charge offs in 2019? Or will we continue It's to

Speaker 4

impossible, Laurie, to predict that because it really is a function then of how much growth we have, where it is, how the portfolio performs and really the underlying economic situation.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just one more question around that. So your reserves to loans are sitting at 102. I guess asked a different way, how should we be thinking about that number?

Speaker 2

I think it's I'll take a stab at it. The 102,000,000 is less a function of charge off and provisioning and really take it up a level and more a function of our macro environment as well as the direction of our activity within the loan portfolio. So in other words, a higher proportion of lower volatility lending activity is going to drive one outcome and the ops a different outcome if we have somewhat more volatile activity in some of our other portfolios. So it's tough to say, Laurie.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Matthew Keating with Barclays.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you. My question, I appreciate the color on how vibrant or strong the tourism market is within Hawaii. Looking at the Department of Bureau of Economic and Development's forecast though, they do have that growth moderating a bit in 2019. I'm just curious for your perspective on how much a moderation in growth is still positive, right, in terms of visitor expenditures, think, about 4% versus up about nine percent last year.

What sort of impact does that have on your business? Is it just a good thing that it's still going up? If you could just provide some color, it would be great. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. It's a good question. I think that we've all frankly been surprised at how robust the numbers are. Having positive comps on year over year over year record outcomes is a great thing. But mathematically speaking, at some point, things have to flatten out.

I think that's in part what dBED is forecasting. I would say that in periods of spending frothiness, there's probably less that sticks to the bottom line of the local economy than you might imagine. Because you think about the average visitor comes here and has a great experience, goes to a luau, rents a car, goes to the shopping center and does that, that creates one level of spend. Where we see big peaks oftentimes is where international visitors are purchasing high luxury goods. And we like that activity as well, but obviously that doesn't have as much proportionality impact on local economy.

So put another way, think that as long as we have consistency and reasonable growth within the visitor segment, that's going to be just plain good for our marketplace. Where we have big bump ups, it's nice to see, but frankly, I'm not sure how much of that actually sticks to the bottom line.

Speaker 9

That's great color. Thanks, Peter. And then maybe Dean, on the expense growth, the 2% to 3% core expense growth for 2019, any like is most of that going to become in terms of people costs? Are there any particular projects if you think about sort of the line items? Obviously, this year, you have the benefit from the FDIC assessment fees going down, but anything unusual in terms of the line item on expenses that you contemplate for 2019?

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Why don't you go ahead, Deep?

Speaker 3

Yes. I wouldn't say unusual. I think it's continued from what we've been seeing recently, but we do have merit increases built in. And then the rest of it is generally going to be for our initiatives that we strategic initiatives that we've been working on.

Speaker 2

Yes. So really for a couple of years now, Matthew, we've had a fair amount of investment into the bloodstream of our expense base around digital initiatives, obviously around security and network hardening initiatives as well as just general efficiency creation initiatives that we're pretty heartful around, but at least in the near term is creating a little elevation in our expense base. So we've had that we had that last year, maybe even the year before and we're likely to have that again, certainly this year and perhaps in But net debt, we think that's going to be a positive for our financial performance moving forward.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with BoA Merrill Lynch.

Speaker 10

Good morning, guys.

Speaker 5

Good morning.

Speaker 10

I'm sorry if I missed this. I joined a little later. But I wonder if, Peter, if you already talked about in terms of the outlook for deposit growth. As we think about how that should impact your balance sheet growth, we've seen balance sheet growth balance sheet, I guess, average earning assets stay relatively flat over the last couple of years. And I'm wondering if that kind of what we should expect as we have some of this mix shift from securities to loans continuing?

Or do we see anything where net net deposit growth could actually pick up over the next few quarters?

Speaker 2

Yes. Ebrahim, it's a good question. I think that I think about it really two ways. From an aggregate growth standpoint, really for the past, call it six quarters, our deposit growth has been retarded somewhat by our stated strategy in our public book. So in other words, the runoff in the public has hidden reasonable growth in commercial and consumer.

We would anticipate that that would continue, one. And two, at some point, we're just going to stabilize out that public book, which is kind of the minority of all of our portfolio size wise. Having said that, we're running at the very lower end of cost of deposits here in this market. If you take a look at the competitive landscape and given where we are from a loan to deposit standpoint, I'm not sure we have a lot of pressure to grow that deposit base much more than we have been simply because our L2D is running on the lower end as it stands right now.

Speaker 10

Understood. That's all I had. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Yes. And I'm not showing any further questions at this time.

Speaker 1

I'd like to thank all of you for joining us today and for your continued interest in Bank of Hawaii. As always, please feel free to contact me if you have any additional questions or need further clarification on any of the topics we've discussed today. Thanks, everyone, again, and have a great day.

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.