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    BP PLC (BP)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 22, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$34.42Last close (Feb 10, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$34.25Open (Feb 11, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.17(-0.49%)
    • BP expects significant growth in LNG volumes, with the Tortue and Beach projects adding about 3 million tonnes per annum to their LNG production, potentially boosting earnings in this segment.
    • BPX Energy is delivering strong performance, with refracs in the Eagle Ford yielding triple-digit plus returns, and BP is considering increasing gas drilling due to favorable gas prices, indicating potential for growth in their shale business.
    • BP is accessing new upstream opportunities with attractive returns, including a services contract with ONGC in India and the redevelopment of Kirkuk in Iraq, which involves 20 billion barrels yet to produce under a competitive PSA agreement, potentially enhancing production and reserves.
    • BP's refining business faced significant challenges in 2024, including outages and a difficult margin environment. Despite efforts to improve performance, there is uncertainty about whether these issues are fully resolved.
    • Biofuels margins in Europe are suppressed due to Nordic countries rolling back voluntary mandates and oversupply from Asia. Additionally, the recovery from the trucking recession affecting TravelCenters of America is slower than expected, contributing to BP's 2025 EBITDA being slightly below expectations.
    • BP is experiencing difficulties in divesting its stake in Rosneft due to sanctions from more than a dozen countries, leading to ongoing uncertainty that could negatively impact its financial position.
    1. Strategy Reset
      Q: What's behind the 'fundamental reset' mentioned in the press release?
      A: BP has made significant changes over the past 12 months, including sanctioning ten new projects and completely decapitalizing renewables. Given these shifts, it's now time to reset the strategy and plot a new beginning. This reset is not due to external macro environment factors.

    2. Engagement with Elliott
      Q: Any comments on engagement with Elliott, given news about new shareholders?
      A: BP considers this market speculation and does not comment on such matters.

    3. 2025 EBITDA Guidance
      Q: What's driving the significant increase in EBITDA into 2025?
      A: Adjusted for 2023 prices, BP's 2024 EBITDA would be just under the $46-49 billion target. The increase into 2025 is due to several factors: absence of the Whiting outage, 3-4% underlying growth from continued cost improvements, and better performance in businesses like Castrol, TravelCenters of America, and European convenience.

    4. Cost Reductions Breakdown
      Q: How much of the $5 billion cost reduction is from divestments versus underlying?
      A: BP is not planning to break down the $5 billion structural cost reductions between portfolio movements and underlying reductions. They have provided as much granularity as possible but need to draw the line in some areas.

    5. Rosneft Stake
      Q: Could you see a scenario for reconsolidating the Rosneft shares in the future?
      A: BP's principal focus is on divesting the stake in Rosneft. With more than a dozen countries imposing sanctions, BP believes it's best to continue the divestment process.

    6. Refining and Trading Outlook
      Q: Are the refining issues resolved, and how will profitability improve?
      A: 2024 was challenging for refining due to low margins and an outage at Whiting. BP is confident in improving the business by focusing on plant reliability reaching 96%, enabling commercial optimization, reducing costs, and planning fewer complex turnarounds in 2025. This should return the refining business to profitability.

    7. BPX Performance
      Q: Update on BPX performance and plans for gas activity?
      A: BPX continues to perform well, with the third central gathering facility online in the Permian. Refracs in the Eagle Ford are yielding more flow than original wells, with returns over 100%. BP is contemplating increasing rigs in gas areas due to solid gas pricing expected in late 2025 and early 2026.

    8. LNG Volume Increases
      Q: What's the expected LNG volume increment from Tortue and Beach?
      A: Tortue and Beach projects will add about 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG, assuming full-year flow. Regarding Venture, BP is awaiting the outcome of arbitration expected in the second half of the year.

    9. Impact of US Tariffs on Refining
      Q: How will US tariffs on Canadian crude impact Whiting's margins?
      A: It's difficult to predict the impact. BP has the ability to adjust volumes between regions. The WTI-WCS spread widened upon the announcement of tariffs. Due to the complexity of global flows, BP finds it challenging to foresee how margins will be affected.

    10. Bioenergy Performance
      Q: What's the status of Archaea's performance amid weak biofuels margins?
      A: Archaea is improving, with 12 new plants online contributing to earnings from 2024 into 2025. Returns from Archaea are increasing, while biofuels remain challenging, especially in Europe, due to weak margins. BP is cautious about sanctioning new biofuels plants but is pleased with progress in Archaea.

    11. Net Interest and Minorities
      Q: Should we expect higher net interest costs and minorities going forward?
      A: Net interest was up due to an increase in gross debt, as BP issued debt without buying back maturities, taking advantage of market conditions. The movement in minorities is related to changes in hybrids in the fourth quarter. Over time, these costs are expected to reverse as BP reduces hybrids and debt.

    12. $40 Breakeven and One-off Costs
      Q: How does the $917 million one-off cost influence the $40 breakeven?
      A: The $40 breakeven includes financing charges. The $917 million is a non-cash remeasurement of joint venture step acquisitions related to Lightsource bp and bp bioenergy, due to accounting treatment when increasing equity stakes in existing holdings.

    13. Lease Payment Expectations
      Q: Where are lease payments expected to move going forward?
      A: Leases were relatively flat quarter-on-quarter. Lease liabilities increased slightly due to the completion of Bunge, adding about 300,000 hectares of land leased. Expect a small increase in lease payments as a result.

    14. Variable Costs and Margin Ratio
      Q: How do you measure and manage the strong cost margin ratio?
      A: Variable costs are directly related to delivering margins, primarily in the trading business. BP focuses on gross margin in trading, and while variable costs like shipping have increased due to freight rates up 45%, these are essential for generating returns. BP ensures efficient management without targeting reductions that could harm value.

    15. Upstream Deals with ONGC and Kirkuk
      Q: What makes the deals with ONGC and Kirkuk attractive?
      A: BP has a strong track record in late-life developments, helping operators with challenging reservoirs. With ONGC, BP provides people and advice under a services contract, offering attractive returns without deploying capital. In Kirkuk, BP is finalizing negotiations on a competitive PSA covering 20 billion barrels yet to produce, leveraging their reputation to assist with production improvements.

    16. Capital-Light Approach and Cost Reduction
      Q: How much cost will come off the balance sheet from capital-light transactions?
      A: BP has already reduced some cash costs by focusing its portfolio, contributing to $750 million of structural reductions delivered this year. They will update on capital comprehensively at the upcoming Capital Markets Day.