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Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 delivered strong topline: total revenue $138.2M, including $114.1M AYVAKIT net product revenue, up “more than 185%” y/y; operating loss narrowed materially as revenue scaled and opex stayed flat; net loss was $50.0M (–$0.80 diluted EPS) .
  • Management raised 2024 AYVAKIT revenue guidance to $435–$450M from $390–$410M on first-half outperformance and improved visibility around business drivers; R&D and SG&A are expected to remain relatively flat through year-end, supporting operating leverage .
  • Commercial drivers remain robust: low discontinuation and high compliance, expanding prescriber breadth with rising allergist participation, favorable free-goods mix stabilizing just below 20%, and early international traction (notably Germany); U.S. AYVAKIT revenue was $101.5M and ex-U.S. $12.7M in Q2 .
  • Strategic catalysts: BLU-808 (wild-type KIT) entered Phase 1 (healthy volunteers), with initial PK/PD/safety data expected early 2025; HARBOR Part 2 (elenestinib) targeted to initiate by year-end; guidance raise and pipeline progress are the near-term stock narrative drivers .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Commercial execution: AYVAKIT net product revenue reached $114.1M; management highlighted “one of the most exciting rare disease launches,” raising full-year guidance on stronger-than-expected first-half performance .
    • Durable fundamentals: low discontinuation and high compliance are driving multi‑year duration; prescribers with >10 patients are emerging, and allergist adoption continues to increase .
    • International momentum: Germany is “off to the races” for ISM; ex‑U.S. revenue reached $12.7M in Q2, and more ISM launches expected in 2025; management expects international to be an important contributor over time .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Still loss-making: despite revenue scale, Q2 recorded a net loss of $50.0M; operating expenses remained high at $181.2M though flat q/q; cost of sales rose partly due to GAVRETO product sale to Rigel .
    • Seasonality and German pricing: management cautioned on seasonality affecting timing of new starts in H2 and potential revenue impact from German price negotiations into year-end .
    • Free-goods tailwind stabilizing: free goods “just below 20%” since ISM launch—favorable but no longer a growing tailwind versus Q1; conversion dynamics will matter to sustain revenue yield per patient .

Financial Results

Summary P&L (USD Millions, except per-share). Columns: oldest → newest.

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Total Revenues$72.0 $96.1 $138.2
AYVAKIT Net Product Revenue$71.0 $92.5 $114.1
Collaboration/Other Revenue$0.9 $3.6 $24.0
Total Cost & Operating Expenses$177.1 $174.9 $181.2
Operating Income (Loss)$(105.1) (calc) $(78.8) (calc) $(43.0) (calc)
Other Income (Expense), net$(5.7) $168.1 (incl. $173.7M debt gain) $(6.8)
Net Income (Loss)$(110.9) $89.1 $(50.0)
Diluted EPS$(1.82) $1.40 $(0.80)

Notes: Operating Income (Loss) calculated as Total Revenues minus Total Cost & Operating Expenses using cited figures. Q1 other income includes a non‑cash debt extinguishment gain of $173.7M, inflating EPS .

AYVAKIT net product revenue – geography

MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024
U.S. AYVAKIT Net Product Revenue$83.1M $101.5M
ex‑U.S. AYVAKIT Net Product Revenue$9.4M $12.7M

KPIs and Operating Context

KPIQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Patients on AYVAKIT (U.S., approx.)~1,000 as of Jan 2024
Free-Goods Share (since ISM launch)~20% avg just below 20% avg
ComplianceHigh (mgmt commentary) High High
DiscontinuationLow (mgmt commentary) Very low Very low
Duration (Adv. SM)~25 months ~25 months ~25 months; ISM trending longer
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments$767.2M (12/31/23) $735.6M (3/31/24) $868.5M (6/30/24)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
AYVAKIT Net Product RevenueFY 2024$390M–$410M (May 2, 2024) $435M–$450M (Aug 1, 2024) Raised
AYVAKIT Net Product RevenueFY 2024$360M–$390M (Feb 15, 2024) $390M–$410M (May 2, 2024) Raised
R&D Expense TrendFY 2024Decline vs 2023 expected (maintained) “Relatively flat” remainder of 2024 Maintained/Updated cadence
SG&A Expense TrendFY 2024Operating leverage; stable (maintained) “Relatively flat” remainder of 2024 Maintained/Updated cadence
Cash Burn/ProfitabilityFY 2024Cash burn to decline; path to self-sustainable profile Durable capital position; path to self-sustainable profile reiterated Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’23 and Q1’24)Current Period (Q2’24)Trend
ISM launch trajectory“On path” to >$2B peak; breadth and depth building; allergist share growing to mid‑30s Another “very strong” quarter; prescribers with >10 patients now; durable efficacy/tolerability driving long duration Strengthening
Free goods & Part DFree goods down to ~20% avg since launch; Part D redesign aiding paid therapy Average free-goods “just below 20%”; expected steady for rest of year Stabilized favorable mix
SeasonalityLearning quarterly dynamics (Q4/Q1 impacts) Seasonality to affect timing of starts but not annual outcome Known headwind, manageable
International expansionEurope ISM approval; Germany early momentum Germany strong; broader ISM launches expected 2025; pricing negotiations a watch item Building
BLU‑808 (WT KIT)IND filing on track; pipeline-in-a-pill thesis IND cleared; healthy volunteer study initiated; SAD/MAD data expected early 2025 Advancing to clinical data
Elenestinib (HARBOR)Positive Part 1 ISM data; registrational planning Part 2 on track to initiate by year-end; aim for clinical differentiation vs AYVAKIT Toward pivotal
CDK2/BLU‑222 BDActive partnership discussions; ASCO combo data Partner sought to fund expensive breast cancer studies; strategy reiterated Ongoing

Management Commentary

  • “We have delivered yet another very strong quarter of revenue... and we are well on the path to achieve more than $2 billion in potential peak sales.” — CEO Kate Haviland .
  • “AYVAKIT achieved $114.1 million in net product revenue... driven by growth in patients on AYVAKIT, low discontinuation, high compliance, and favorable free-goods mix.” — CCO Philina Lee .
  • “We are raising our AYVAKIT product revenue guidance... to $435 million to $450 million in 2024... and anticipate R&D and SG&A will remain relatively flat for the remainder of this year.” — CFO Mike Landsittel .
  • “We’ve moved BLU‑808 into the clinic... initial data early next year could be an important inflection point.” — COO Christina Rossi .

Q&A Highlights

  • Seasonality and Part D: Management expects seasonal timing effects on starts but not annual results; Part D redesign has stabilized free-goods share just below 20% for the year .
  • Eligibility lens broadening: Experienced prescribers are widening criteria to patients with one or two predominant symptoms; prevalence/diagnosis may be underestimated and growing .
  • Guidance cadence: No stocking impact; guidance reflects variables (starts, duration, compliance, free-goods, international); still implies substantial y/y revenue growth .
  • Duration/compliance: ISM duration trending longer than advanced SM’s ~25 months; high compliance and very low discontinuation continue in real‑world .
  • Pricing and dosing: No net pricing increases q/q; majority of ISM starts remain at 25 mg; 50 mg use is limited to centers of excellence in select cases .
  • International outlook: Germany leads ISM; additional countries expected in 2025; ex‑U.S. is a growing contributor to peak .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable for BPMC via our API at this time; therefore, we cannot provide comparisons vs consensus for Q2 2024. We will update comparisons once S&P Global mapping becomes available. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The commercial engine is compounding: expanding prescriber breadth/depth, durable persistence, and stabilizing free-goods mix are supporting continued revenue scale; guidance was raised again on stronger fundamentals .
  • Operating leverage emerging: Operating loss narrowed substantially q/q as revenue scaled and opex remained flat; continued expense discipline positions the company toward a self‑sustaining profile .
  • International and pipeline add optionality: Germany is contributing now, with broader ISM launches targeted for 2025; BLU‑808 clinical data in early 2025 is a key pipeline catalyst; HARBOR Part 2 initiation in 2024 could reinforce SM leadership .
  • Watch items into H2: seasonal timing of starts, Germany price negotiations, and free‑goods stability may affect quarterly cadence but are not expected to impair full‑year targets per management .
  • Valuation narrative: Repeat guidance raises, visible launch durability, and multi‑asset mast cell franchise support a “durable growth” storyline; absence of estimates comparison this quarter is a temporary data limitation (to be remedied with S&P mapping).

Appendix: Additional Data Exhibits

Revenue and EPS vs prior periods (detail)

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Total Revenues ($M)$71.957 $96.116 $138.157
Net Product Revenue ($M)$71.034 $92.525 $114.115
Collaboration/Other ($M)$0.923 $3.591 $24.042
Diluted EPS$(1.82) $1.40 $(0.80)

Cash & Liquidity

  • Cash, cash equivalents & investments: $868.5M as of June 30, 2024; management reiterated a “durable capital position” and path to a self‑sustaining profile .

Operational context quotes

  • “We continue to see strong and steady growth in patients on AYVAKIT... low discontinuation rates, high compliance, and continued upside in our commercial versus free goods mix.” — CCO Philina Lee .
  • “We believe [BLU‑808] data could mark an important inflection point... enabling us to rapidly establish clinical proof‑of‑concept in a range of mast cell disorders.” — COO Christina Rossi .