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Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • AYVAKIT net product revenue rose to $128.2M in Q3 2024 (+136% YoY), with $113.1M U.S. and $15.1M ex-U.S.; total revenue was $128.2M and GAAP EPS was $(0.89) .
  • Management raised FY2024 AYVAKIT revenue guidance to $475–$480M from $435–$450M on stronger patient growth, high compliance, and better-than-expected international performance .
  • Q3 beat Street consensus: revenue $128.2M vs. $127.6M and EPS $(0.89) vs. $(0.97); stock rose ~7% on the print .
  • Management emphasized a durable path to self-sustaining financials, stable gross-to-net in the mid-80s, and international break-even by year-end; HARBOR Part 2 for elenestinib remains on track for initiation by year-end .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • AYVAKIT delivered $128.2M in Q3 net product revenue (U.S. $113.1M, ex-U.S. $15.1M), supporting another guidance raise to $475–$480M for 2024; CEO: “on a $0.5 billion run rate” in first full year of ISM launch .
  • Strong commercial execution: steady growth in patients on therapy, low discontinuations, and high compliance; international momentum with Germany leading ISM launch despite price reassessment .
  • Financial discipline: mid-80s gross-to-net margin, operating expenses broadly flat in Q3 ($177.2M), and significant drop in cash burn in 2024; cash, cash equivalents and investments at $882.4M .

What Went Wrong

  • Q3 total revenue of $128.2M was below Q2’s $138.2M due to absence of collaboration revenue in Q3 (Q2 had $24.0M), despite AYVAKIT growth; R&D and SG&A remained sizable at $85.3M and $89.9M respectively .
  • German price reassessment created a lower price accrual headwind (offset by volume growth), highlighting ongoing ex-U.S. pricing and reimbursement sensitivity .
  • EPS remained negative at $(0.89) in Q3 versus Q2 $(0.80), reflecting continued investment and interest expense; year-ago comp improved but profitability hinges on sustained revenue growth and expense control .

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance vs. Prior Periods

MetricQ3 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$56.566 $96.116 $138.157 $128.184
AYVAKIT Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$54.228 $92.525 $114.115 $128.184
GAAP EPS ($USD)$(2.20) $1.40 $(0.80) $(0.89)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$110.252 $88.191 $84.270 $85.300
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)$70.741 $83.557 $89.339 $89.926
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(133.713) $89.136 $(49.994) $(56.276)
Cost of Sales ($USD Millions)$2.782 $3.191 $7.593 $1.932
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments ($USD Millions)—$735.604 $868.471 $882.353

Actual vs. Consensus (Q3 2024)

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$127.56 $128.20 +$0.64M
GAAP EPS ($USD)$(0.97) $(0.89) +$0.08

Notes: Multiple outlets reported the consensus and beat, including Nasdaq/Zacks; BPMC beat on both revenue and EPS in Q3 .

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2024 AYVAKIT Net Product Revenue)

GeographyRevenue ($USD Millions)
U.S.$113.1
ex-U.S.$15.1

KPIs and Operating Metrics (Q3 2024)

KPIQ3 2024
Gross-to-net margin %Mid-80s
Free goods (free drug) rateMid-teens, stable over past two quarters
International business profitabilityBreak-even expected by year-end 2024
Compliance and discontinuationsHigh compliance; low discontinuation rates

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
AYVAKIT Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$435–$450 $475–$480 Raised
Operating ExpensesFY 2024Decline vs. 2023 (expected) Decline vs. 2023 (reaffirmed) Maintained
Cash BurnFY 2024Decline vs. 2023 (expected) Decline vs. 2023 (reaffirmed) Maintained
Gross-to-net marginNear-term—Mid-80s; stable Informational
R&D and SG&A run-rateQ4 2024—Relatively consistent to close 2024 Informational
International profitabilityFY 2024—Break-even by year-end Informational
HARBOR Part 2 (elenestinib)2024Initiation later in 2024 On track by year-end Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2024)Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)Current Period (Q3 2024)Trend
AYVAKIT launch trajectory$92.5M net product revenue; path to >$2B peak $114.1M net product revenue; guidance raised $128.2M net product revenue; guidance raised again Strengthening
International expansion (Germany)—International ramp starting; cash $868.5M Germany driving ex-U.S. sales; price reassessment offset by volume; break-even by year-end Improving with near-term price headwind
Seasonality and patient starts—Flagged summer seasonality risk Less impact than expected; strong end-of-Q3 demand Better than feared
Free drug dynamics (Part D/IRA)——Stabilized mid-teens; watch 2025 reset under IRA Stable near-term; 2025 watch item
BLU-808 (wild-type KIT)IND filing on track; preclinical data incl. asthma model Phase 1 HV initiated Data expected early 2025; tunability emphasized Advancing
Elenestinib (KIT D816V) HARBOR Part 2—Initiation later in 2024 On track to initiate by year-end; focus on clinical differentiation On track
Capital allocation/financial sustainabilityDurable capital position; self-sustainable profile Increased cash; disciplined spend Cash burn significantly down; path to sustainability Improving

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We are on a $0.5 billion run rate in our first full year of ISM launch… positioning AYVAKIT's launch in ISM to be among the most successful rare disease launches to date” .
  • CFO: “Our gross to net margin remained stable in the mid-80s… international business is on track to break even by the end of this year” .
  • CCO: “Growth… driven by new patient starts and low discontinuations… mix of free and commercial goods remain stable… average free goods rate since ISM approval is in the mid-teens” .
  • COO: “On track to initiate the registration-enabling Part 2 of the HARBOR study by year end… BLU-808 Phase I HV data early next year” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance philosophy: Raised and tightened FY24 range based on visibility into Q4 and maturing launch variables; expect more informed FY25 guide after early-year IRA/free drug dynamics .
  • Seasonality and patient adds: Summer seasonality impact was less than expected; management reiterates strong and steady growth in patients on therapy and emphasizes quarterly stability over monthly lumpiness .
  • International strength: Germany’s ISM launch mirrors U.S. dynamics; demand growth offset price headwinds; broader European markets to come online; international break-even by year-end .
  • BLU-808 profile: Small-molecule tunability to navigate mast cell activity from degranulation inhibition to depletion; HV data in early 2025 to inform dose and disease selection across Type 2 inflammatory diseases .
  • Elenestinib strategy: Franchise approach to deliver differentiated long-term clinical impact; HARBOR Part 2 design to reflect evolved understanding of disease manifestations and endpoints .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2024 beat: Revenue $128.2M vs. $127.6M consensus; GAAP EPS $(0.89) vs. $(0.97) consensus; multiple independent sources confirm beats .
  • S&P Global consensus via tool was unavailable due to a mapping error. As a result, third-party consensus figures (MarketBeat/Zacks/Nasdaq/Yahoo Finance) were used and cited explicitly.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Momentum: AYVAKIT’s Q3 strength and raised FY24 guide signal durable launch momentum with improving international contribution; near-term catalysts include elenestinib HARBOR Part 2 initiation .
  • Beat and reaction: Clear beat on revenue and EPS with favorable stock reaction (~+7%), suggesting investor confidence in trajectory and guidance methodology .
  • Operating leverage: Stable gross-to-net (mid-80s), declining cash burn, and expense discipline underpin path to self-sustaining profile; watch R&D/SG&A consistency into Q4/Q1 .
  • Pricing dynamics: Germany’s price reassessment introduces near-term ex-U.S. pricing variability, but volume growth offsets and broader EU launches should expand the revenue base .
  • 2025 watch items: IRA-induced changes to free drug dynamics could affect revenue recognition; management will incorporate early-2025 observations into FY25 guidance .
  • Pipeline optionality: BLU-808 HV data (early 2025) is a key read-through for broader Type 2 inflammatory indications; elenestinib aims to extend SM franchise value via differentiation .
  • Trading setup: Near-term strength supported by execution and guide raise; monitor Q4 patient adds, ex-U.S. pricing outcomes, and any early IRA/free-drug impacts that could drive estimate revisions .