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Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $146.4M, driven by AYVAKIT net product revenue of $144.1M; diluted EPS was $(0.79), with net loss improving vs prior year on lower OpEx and higher top line .
  • Management initiated 2025 guidance of $680–$710M AYVAKIT revenue, implying ~45% YoY growth at the midpoint; reinforced long‑term targets of $2B AYVAKIT revenue by 2030 and $4B peak SM franchise opportunity .
  • Commercial execution remained strong: prescriber breadth/depth expanded, ex‑US momentum grew (Germany priced; Q4 ex‑US $20.0M), and free‑goods dynamics stable; field force expansion will further lift reach in 2H25 .
  • Strategic catalysts: BLU‑808 Phase 1 HV data showing >80% tryptase reduction and wide therapeutic window; multiple POC studies to begin in 2025, initial data expected later in 2025 .
  • Note: S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 (revenue/EPS) were unavailable in this cycle; estimate comparisons could not be performed.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • AYVAKIT quarterly and annual revenue strength: Q4 net product revenue $144.1M; full‑year AYVAKIT $479.0M, up 135% YoY; total 2024 revenue $508.8M .
  • Prescriber expansion and strong patient dynamics: low discontinuations, high compliance; allergists’ prescriber base grew tenfold since ISM approval, supporting durable growth .
  • BLU‑808 momentum: healthy volunteer data with dose‑dependent PK, >80% tryptase reductions, and favorable tolerability positions best‑in‑class oral KIT profile for allergic/inflammatory diseases .
  • Quote: “We expect AYVAKIT to achieve $680 million to $710 million in revenue this year, placing us firmly on the path to realize $2 billion in revenue by 2030.” — CEO Kate Haviland .

What Went Wrong

  • Operating expenses increased in SG&A YoY in Q4 due to commercialization scaling; R&D down YoY but still elevated given pipeline advancement .
  • CFO flagged Q1 seasonal/financial headwinds (insurance reverification, FX, fewer ordering days), implying near‑term quarterly variability despite strong annual trajectory .
  • Cost of sales increased vs 2023 given higher volume and partner sales; collaboration revenue small in Q4 ($2.2M) vs product revenue .
  • Analyst concern: need to accelerate absolute annual sales additions to bridge from ~$215M 2025 growth to ~$260M/yr through 2030; management pointed to prescriber deepening and field expansion .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$138.157 $128.184 $146.366
Net Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$114.115 $128.184 $144.125
Collaboration/License Revenue ($USD Millions)$24.042 $0.000 $2.241
Cost of Sales ($USD Millions)$7.593 $1.932 $7.447
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(49.994) $(56.276) $(49.956)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.80) $(0.89) $(0.79)

Product Gross Margin % (calculated from product revenue and cost of sales):

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Product Gross Margin %93.4% 98.5% 94.8%
Note: Margin calculated as (Net Product Revenue − Cost of Sales) / Net Product Revenue using cited figures.

Segment breakdown (Net Product Revenue by geography):

GeographyQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
US ($USD Millions)$101.5 $113.1 $124.1
ex‑US ($USD Millions)$12.7 $15.1 $20.0
Total ($USD Millions)$114.1 $128.2 $144.1

Selected KPIs and balance sheet:

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments ($USD Millions)$868.471 $882.353 $863.937
Working Capital ($USD Millions)$659.741 $597.187 $481.882
Term Loan ($USD Millions)$386.914 $386.569 $386.970
Liability related to sale of future royalties/revenues ($USD Millions)$265.533 $261.207 $255.174
Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted, Millions)62.854 63.381 63.600

Estimates vs Actual (S&P Global):

MetricActual Q4 2024S&P Global ConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$146.366 N/A (Unavailable)N/A
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.79) N/A (Unavailable)N/A
Note: S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable for BPMC this cycle; comparisons could not be performed.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
AYVAKIT Net Product RevenueFY 2024$435–$450M (raised on Aug 1, 2024) $475–$480M (raised on Oct 30, 2024) Raised
AYVAKIT Net Product RevenueFY 2025—$680–$710M Initial (robust growth)
OpEx DirectionFY 2025—Modest R&D and SG&A increase to support commercial expansion and pipeline (BLU‑808, elenestinib) Qualitative
Cash BurnFY 2025—Expect further significant decline vs 2024 Qualitative
International MixFY 2025~10–15% of revenue (2024 context) Similar range expected; more EU markets reimbursing during 2025 Maintained trajectory

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Prescriber breadth/depthBreadth growing across hem/onc and allergists; first >10‑patient prescribers; low discontinuations/high compliance Allergists up tenfold since ISM approval; expansion to med derm/GI planned; repeat prescribing deepening Broadening and deepening
Free goods/AccessFree goods ~below 20%; favorable Part D redesign; access strong Mix stable; strong payer coverage; fast time to fill; stability similar to Q3 Stable, supportive
International expansionGermany ISM launch underway; ex‑US growing; more markets in 2025 Germany priced; expect ≥5 EU markets in 2025; ex‑US ~10–15% mix Increasing contribution
Seasonality & quarterly dynamicsSummer timing shifts; not “if” but “when”; seasonal effects don’t impair annual growth Q1 headwinds (reverification, FX, fewer ordering days); annual outlook intact Known, managed
BLU‑808 developmentIND cleared; HV study initiated; POC planned across Type‑2 diseases HV data supportive; >80% tryptase reduction; POC trials starting; initial data later in 2025 Accelerating
SM franchise strategyHARBOR Part 2 (Phase 3) set for elenestinib; extend lifecycle HARBOR underway; focus on bone health/anaphylaxis endpoints; differentiated label goal Advancing registration
Macro/tariffs/supply chainNot emphasizedFX noted as headwind; ordering day dynamics highlighted Neutral to modest headwind
R&D executionBLU‑222 de‑prioritization; protein degraders advancing Capital discipline; focus on mast cell portfolio Focused investment

Management Commentary

  • “We are entering 2025 in the strongest position we have ever been… AYVAKIT firmly on track to achieve $2 billion in revenue by 2030… peak SM franchise opportunity of $4 billion.” — Kate Haviland, CEO .
  • “The strong foundation and trajectory of growth we established in 2024 informs our revenue expectations for this year… $680M to $710M… midpoint 45% increase.” — Philina Lee, CCO .
  • “We expect Q1 to be more challenging due to insurance reverification… FX headwinds… quarterly ordering dynamics… baked into annual guidance.” — Mike Landsittel, CFO .
  • “BLU‑808 was well‑tolerated… rapid, robust tryptase response… wide therapeutic index supports differentiated dosing strategies.” — Becker Hewes, CMO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Growth ramp to $2B by 2030: Management affirmed current 2025 midpoint implies ~45% growth and sees prescriber deepening/field expansion driving 2026–2030 step‑ups .
  • BLU‑808 dosing approach: Multiple strategies (induction/maintenance, titration) planned; HV data de‑risks safety and enables tunable dosing across indications; initial POC data expected later 2025 .
  • Field force expansion: Incremental build to reach several thousand more providers including med derm/GI; impact expected mainly in 2026+; 2025 guidance excludes this uplift .
  • International outlook: Germany price agreed; five more EU markets anticipated in 2025; ex‑US mix ~10–15% in 2024 likely similar in 2025 .
  • Seasonality: Q1 headwinds (reverification, FX, fewer ordering days) highlighted; annual guidance incorporates these dynamics .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for BPMC Q4 2024 revenue/EPS were unavailable in this cycle; consequently, beat/miss analysis versus Wall Street consensus could not be performed this quarter.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Durable growth trajectory: Q4 revenue acceleration and initial 2025 guide ($680–$710M) support a multiyear ramp toward $2B by 2030; prescriber deepening and broader specialty reach are tangible drivers .
  • Near‑term trading lens: Expect Q1 revenue headwinds (reverification/FX/ordering days), but these are seasonal and embedded in annual guidance; monitor ex‑US reimbursement wins and U.S. field expansion hiring .
  • Pipeline optionality: BLU‑808’s best‑in‑class oral KIT profile with >80% tryptase reduction offers multi‑indication upside; watch 2025 POC readouts in CSU/CIU and respiratory indications .
  • SM franchise durability: HARBOR (elenestinib) designed for differentiated outcomes (bone health/anaphylaxis); potential to expand label and extend franchise beyond AYVAKIT’s leadership .
  • Operating leverage: Cash burn fell >50% in 2024; further decline expected in 2025 as AYVAKIT scales; cash/investments $864M plus ~$80M IDRx proceeds strengthen balance sheet .
  • International contribution: Germany pricing secured; broader EU reimbursement imminent; ex‑US mix ~10–15% likely maintained near term, with upside as launches progress .
  • Risk checks: Seasonal/FX variability, execution on field force expansion, payer dynamics, and competitive developments remain watch items, but management execution and market build continue to track ahead of early expectations .