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BELLRING BRANDS, INC. (BRBR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered net sales of $532.9M, diluted EPS of $0.59, and Adjusted EBITDA of $125.3M; gross margin expanded to 37.5% and Adjusted EBITDA margin to 23.5% on non‑recurring cost favorability and timing of marketing spend .
  • Management raised FY 2025 guidance to net sales of $2.26–$2.34B and Adjusted EBITDA of $470–$500M (from $2.24–$2.32B and $460–$490M), citing stronger demand and category momentum; capex remains ~$7M .
  • Premier Protein consumption accelerated (+23.4% RTD shakes; +24.4% powders), with TDPs +31% and household penetration reaching ~20%; Dymatize grew +12.6% in net sales on international strength despite U.S. softness .
  • Near‑term phasing: Q2 net sales growth expected mid‑ to high‑teens YoY; Q2 Adjusted EBITDA margin to decline modestly YoY due to higher marketing; H2 margins pressured by packaging redesign and less favorable input costs—key catalysts for estimate revisions and stock narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong P&L beat: net sales +23.8% YoY to $532.9M; operating profit +57.9% YoY to $115.3M; Adjusted EBITDA +24.7% YoY to $125.3M; gross margin +310 bps YoY to 37.5% .
  • Premier Protein momentum: RTD shake net sales +25.3% (volume +21.3%; price/mix +4.0%), powder net sales +26.3%; “consumption accelerated… new all time highs for household penetration and total distribution points” (CEO) .
  • Raised FY25 outlook: net sales to $2.26–$2.34B; Adjusted EBITDA to $470–$500M; “strong start… drove our decision to raise our outlook” (CEO) .

What Went Wrong

  • SG&A deleverage: SG&A rose to 15.0% of net sales (vs 12.3% YoY) on higher advertising, employee, distribution/warehousing costs; A&P spend up $8.9M vs prior year .
  • Cash conversion temporarily weak: cash from operations fell to $3.0M due to inventory build to support shakes; management expects normalization in remainder of year .
  • Input costs turning inflationary: mid‑single‑digit cost inflation expected, with whey and milk protein trending higher; domestic Dymatize pressured amid specialty softness and tougher e‑commerce comps .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Sales ($USD Millions)$515.4 $555.8 $532.9
Gross Profit Margin (%)36.8% 36.9% 37.5%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$119.5 $116.5 $125.3
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)23.2% 21.0% 23.5%
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.56 $0.55 $0.59
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.54 $0.51 $0.58
Net Earnings Margin (%)14.3% 12.9% 14.4%
Segment / Brand KPI (YoY)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Premier Protein Net Sales YoY+19.8% +20.3% +26.3%
Premier Protein RTD Shake Net Sales YoY+18.5% +20.7% +25.3%
Premier Protein Powder Net Sales YoY——Included in brand +26.3%
Dymatize Net Sales YoY−2.6% +3.9% +12.6%
Consumption KPIs (YoY; 13 weeks)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Premier Protein RTD Shakes+9.6% +14.4% +23.4%
Premier Protein Powders+43.6% +42.7% +24.4%
Dymatize Powders−11.3% −10.1% −8.2%
Premier Protein TDPs (Tracked)——+31%
Premier Protein Household Penetration——~20%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net SalesFY 2025$2.24–$2.32B $2.26–$2.34B Raised
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$460–$490M $470–$500M Raised
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025~$7M ~$7M Maintained
Net Sales Growth (YoY)Q2 2025—Mid‑ to high‑teens Introduced
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (YoY)Q2 2025—Decline modestly YoY (higher marketing) Introduced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ‑2 (Q3 2024)Q‑1 (Q4 2024)Current (Q1 2025)Trend
Supply chain & capacity“Shake production delivering to plan” Better in‑stocks; distribution gains Inventory build normalized going forward; supply supports demand Improving, stable supply
Marketing & demand drivingA&P +$3.3M; brand building A&P +$12.8M National campaign “Sweeten The Journey”; web traffic +80% YoY Accelerating investment
Packaging redesign——New logo/packaging in H2; cost impact in H2 Implementation phase
Pricing/input costsInput cost deflation Deflation + commodity hedge gains Mid‑single‑digit inflation; whey/milk proteins rising Turning inflationary
Distribution & shelf spaceAll‑time highs in TDPs All‑time highs; share gains TDPs +31%; ~26% RTD share; ~20% household penetration Expanding distribution
Dymatize performanceDomestic headwinds; tracked share gains International strength International drives growth; U.S. pressured Mixed by region
PromotionsRTD promotions restarted Higher marketing & promotions Display‑led promotions (less deep discounting) Focus on displays
New channels (Convenience)——Convenience is future opportunity; testing hybrid DSD Early exploration
GLP‑1 tailwind——~25% of growth; penetration plateauing but usage persists on/after drug Sustained tailwind

Management Commentary

  • “We are pleased with our first quarter performance… Premier Protein consumption accelerated, lifted by distribution gains, strong velocities and incremental promotional activity. The brand achieved new all time highs for household penetration and total distribution points.” — Darcy Davenport, CEO .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA margins were 23.5%, meaningfully exceeding our expectations… benefited from $5M nonrecurring cost favorability and $1.5M unrealized mark‑to‑market gains on commodity hedges (~120 bps).” — Paul Rode, CFO .
  • “Our Premier Protein national marketing campaign… first nationwide campaign since 2021… traffic to our website is up 80% versus a year ago.” — Darcy Davenport, CEO .
  • “We raised our fiscal ‘25 guidance… net sales $2.26–$2.34B and adjusted EBITDA $470–$500M… better‑than‑expected first quarter performance drove our decision.” — Paul Rode, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Growth levers vs last year: ample capacity enabling national advertising, broader distribution/innovation, and display‑led promotions across food channel; focus less on deep discounting .
  • Dymatize trajectory: international expected to remain strong; global brand targeting single‑digit growth despite U.S. consumer pressure and elevated whey costs .
  • Consumption cadence: January tracked +17%; Q2 RTD consumption expected mid‑20s YoY with consumption outpacing shipments (typical seasonal pattern) .
  • Pricing and protein costs: whey and milk protein costs rising; category promotions stable for now; potential price/promo changes later in the year as costs flow through P&L .
  • Shelf space and category resets: Premier targets share of shelf closer to its ~25% market share; top‑to‑top retailer discussions on category expansion and clearer shelf sets .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates from S&P Global for Q1 2025 (revenue and EPS) were unavailable at the time of query due to provider limits. As a result, beats/misses vs consensus are not shown. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global when available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Demand momentum is broad‑based: Premier Protein RTD and powder both accelerated; distribution and household penetration reached new highs, supporting sustained top‑line strength .
  • Margin setup: Q1 margins benefitted from one‑off cost favorability and hedge gains; expect higher marketing and packaging redesign to weigh on H2 margins, but FY Adjusted EBITDA margin guide ~21% midpoint remains attractive .
  • Guidance raised early: Upward revisions to FY net sales and Adjusted EBITDA reflect confidence in demand drivers; watch for Q2 seasonal consumption strength and display execution .
  • Input cost inflection: shift from deflation to mid‑single‑digit inflation (whey/milk proteins) increases execution risk for H2 pricing/promo strategy—monitor category pricing actions and cost coverage .
  • Brand moat in RTD: complexity of RTD manufacturing and capacity commitments underpin competitive advantages; execution on national marketing and innovation should deepen the moat .
  • Dymatize mix matters: international strength offsets U.S. headwinds; near‑term focus on innovation (RTD/pre‑workout) and athlete marketing to stabilize domestic trends .
  • Capital allocation: ongoing repurchases ($11M in Q1; $40M in Jan; $124.1M remaining) signal confidence and provide downside support amid margin phasing .