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BELLRING BRANDS, INC. (BRBR)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered robust top-line growth: net sales $588.0M (+18.9% YoY) with Adjusted EBITDA $118.6M (20.2% margin), while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.53; guidance for FY25 net sales $2.26–$2.34B and Adjusted EBITDA $470–$500M was affirmed .
- Revenue was above Wall Street consensus ($588.0M vs $578.7M*), while adjusted EPS was essentially in line ($0.53 vs $0.533*); management flagged a Q3 retailer trade-inventory reset and higher input costs as near-term margin headwinds * [functions.GetEstimates].
- Premier Protein consumption accelerated across channels; household penetration reached ~20.9% and RTD category share peaked near 30% in March, aided by promotions, media and new products .
- Management expanded planned Q4 promotions (capacity now supports displays) and remains “bullish” on category runway; tariffs are being monitored with no FY25 impact expected and low single-digit COGS risk in FY26 if unmitigated .
- Stock reaction catalysts: near-term pressure from Q3 trade de-load and sequentially lower margins vs Q4 promotion benefits and strong consumption underpinning FY25 guide confidence .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based growth: Net sales +18.9% (volume +15.3%, price/mix +3.6%); Premier Protein net sales +22.0% (RTD +21.7% on +15.2% volume and +6.5% price/mix), powders +21.7% tracked consumption .
- Brand metrics at highs: “Premier Protein household penetration and market share [reached] new all-time highs,” driven by promotions, media, and new items; management affirmed FY25 outlook despite macro uncertainty .
- Share repurchases: 2.4M shares repurchased for $171.7M at $71.68 avg in Q2; $280M authorization remaining as of 3/31/25 .
What Went Wrong
- Margins pressured: Gross margin fell to 32.3% (from 33.2%); adjusted gross margin 34.5% (+80bps YoY) but SG&A rose to 15.4% of sales (A&P 4.7%), and input cost inflation expected to intensify in 2H FY25 .
- Q3 headwind: Several key retailers lowered weeks-of-supply; Q3 net sales growth guided low single digits (Premier Protein main driver) despite underlying consumption mid- to high-teens—timing issue from trade de-load and lapping prior replenishment .
- Dymatize mixed: Net sales +3.0% (volume +20.4%, price/mix −17.3%), with domestic channel headwinds and promotion-driven price/mix pressure despite international strength and RTD launch .
Financial Results
Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment performance (YoY and drivers):
KPIs and category metrics:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our momentum continued this quarter as Premier Protein consumption accelerated. Increased promotions, our media campaign and new products drove Premier Protein household penetration and market share to new all-time highs… I am pleased to affirm our guidance…” — Darcy H. Davenport, CEO .
- “Adjusted EBITDA margins were in line with our expectations at 20.2%. Pricing actions have offset input cost inflation to date; however, the rate of inflation will increase in the second half of '25, pressuring margins…” — Paul Rode, CFO .
- “We expanded our Q4 promotions… displays are key to reaching new households… capacity position better than ever allows us to lean into effective tactics.” — Darcy H. Davenport .
- “We are closely monitoring tariffs… portion of dairy protein inputs (NZ/EU) could be subject to 10% tariffs; no FY25 impact; potential low single-digit COGS impact in FY26 if unmitigated.” — Paul Rode .
Q&A Highlights
- Category and guidance framing: Management affirmed strong category tailwinds and elected not to tighten guidance given consumer uncertainty despite strong KPIs; could have narrowed otherwise .
- Retailer inventory reset: Identified as a timing dynamic, primarily one club customer post-supply constraints; guidance assumes one-and-done with no rebound in trade inventory .
- Marketing ROI and mix: Q2 A&P at 4.7% of sales (vs 3.1% LY); reallocated some 2H spend from marketing to promotions; full-year marketing “mid-3s to high-3s” .
- Tariffs impact and mitigation: Dairy inputs ~33–40% of COGS; portion potentially tariffed; mitigation includes supplier shifts and pricing; impact not expected in FY25 .
- Competitive and innovation lens: Protein content arms race not expected to define mainstream; focus remains taste + balanced nutritionals; innovation to capture new occasions (indulgence) and consumers (Q4 launch) .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 revenue above consensus: $588.0M vs $578.7M*, adjusted/primary EPS essentially in line: $0.53 vs $0.533*; coverage depth: 14 revenue estimates and 16 EPS estimates * * [functions.GetEstimates].
- Q1 2025 revenue above consensus: $532.9M vs $524.7*; adjusted/primary EPS ahead: $0.58 vs $0.479* * *.
- FY 2025 consensus: revenue ~$2.302B* and EPS ~$2.21*, broadly consistent with affirmed guide midpoint; EBITDA definitions may vary vs company’s Adjusted EBITDA reporting, so compare with caution* [functions.GetEstimates].
Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Demand remains strong and broad-based; Premier Protein brand metrics and consumption accelerated, supporting FY25 guide despite macro uncertainty .
- Near-term setup: Expect Q3 revenue softness (low-single-digit growth) from trade de-load and margin pressure from rising input costs; Q4 promotions should drive EBITDA dollars with sequentially lower margins due to higher promo and costs .
- Marketing mix shift: Elevated promotions/displays are delivering household penetration gains; watch full-year A&P in mid-3s–high-3s % of sales and continued media waves with packaging refresh .
- Watch tariffs and COGS: Dairy tariffs (NZ/EU) are a FY26 consideration with low single-digit COGS risk if unmitigated; management is exploring supplier/pricing levers .
- Capital allocation: Aggressive repurchases ($171.7M in Q2) and net leverage ~1.9x; capacity to sustain buybacks with EBITDA growth and sub-2x leverage .
- Segment trajectory: Dymatize improving (eCom/international, new RTD/pre-workout), but domestic channels remain mixed; Premier Protein powders gaining distribution and velocity, including club .
- Trading implications: Q3 margin/volume headwinds could present a near-term overhang; Q4 promotions/consumption resilience and affirmed FY25 guide are likely re-acceleration catalysts; focus on retailer inventory normalization, input cost trends, and tariff developments .