Brixmor Property Group - Q2 2024
July 30, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Welcome to the Brixmor Property Group second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If any of which require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Stacy Slater, SVP of Investor Relations and Capital Markets. Thank you. You may begin.
Stacey Slater (SVP of Investor Relations and Capital Markets)
Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining Brixmor's second quarter conference call. With me on the call today are Jim Taylor, Chief Executive Officer, Brian Finnegan, President and Chief Operating Officer, and Steve Gallagher, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mark Horgan, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, will also be available for Q&A. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that some of our comments today may contain forward-looking statements that are based on certain assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, and actual future results may differ materially. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Also, we will refer today to certain non-GAAP financial measures.
Further information regarding our use of these measures and reconciliations of these measures to our GAAP results are available in the earnings release and supplemental disclosure on the investor relations portion of our website. Given the number of participants on the call, we kindly ask that you limit your questions to one or two per person. If you have additional questions regarding the quarter, please re-queue. At this time, it's my pleasure to introduce Jim Taylor.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
Thanks, Stacy, and good morning, everyone. Before speaking to our results and continued execution, I'd like to begin by congratulating Brian, Steven, Kevin, and Helaine on their well-deserved promotions. Simply put, well done. As a company, our foundational cultural tenet is that great real estate matters, but great people matter even more. At Brixmor, we are blessed with the best team in the industry, a team that continues to deliver outperformance quarter in and quarter out as we execute our balanced value-added plan. Speaking of records, we achieved record occupancy and record new and renewal spreads in the quarter. Once again, highlighting the flywheel effect of our portfolio transformation and our ability to capitalize on the embedded mark-to-market opportunity. In fact, we average rents of $23.82 a foot versus our average in place of $17.25.
Importantly, we also commenced an additional $17 million of ABR in the quarter, ahead of expectations, while our signed but not commenced ABR replenished to $65 million. Again, providing excellent visibility on continued top-line growth as those leases commence paying rent over the next several quarters. Overall, that top-line revenue growth drove most of our same-store performance of 5.5 in the quarter, as growth in operating margins, driven largely by increased occupancy and penetration of fixed CAM, delivered the balance of that growth. That same-store growth in turn drove bottom-line FFO growth of nearly 6% in the quarter when you exclude the prior year gain on debt extinguishment.
Even with expectations of higher levels of bad debt and lower prior year recoveries, as Steve will detail on further in a moment, this outperformance led us to raise our FFO guidance to a range of $2.11-$2.14, an increase of $0.03 at the midpoint. On the reinvestment front, we continue to make excellent progress, delivering $37 million at an incremental return of 9%, putting us on track to deliver over $200 million for the full year. We also commenced $100 million of pre-leased reinvestment projects, including a second phase at Pointe Orlando and an exciting restaurant outparcel district called Block 59 in Naperville that Brian will discuss further. These and other projects underway provide us with excellent visibility that we will continue to deliver $150 million-$200 million per our plan in 2025 and 2026 and beyond.
On the capital recycling front, we closed during the quarter on a $17 million acquisition in Long Island that is immediately adjacent to one of our existing centers. Just barely a month into ownership, we've identified several groceries to backfill an empty box at highly accretive rents. With these and other grocery opportunities that Brian will highlight in a moment, we continue to organically grow our overall grocery anchored percentage to over 80% of ABR, importantly, in a manner that unlocks huge value through yield in compression and cap rate. Following quarter end, we also closed on the acquisition of Fresh Market Shoppes in Hilton Head, a value-added acquisition that builds on our critical mass in the fast-growing Coastal Carolinas market.
Further, our forward acquisition pipeline continues to build to over $200 million, with opportunities in our core markets to further cluster and leverage our best-in-class platform. Finally, I'm pleased to report that we continue to demonstrate the strength of our balance sheet and the impact of our balanced strategy as we brought debt to EBITDA down to 5.6x and have over $1.7 billion of liquidity to fund our business for the next several years. In sum, our balanced value-added business plan not only continues to deliver on all fronts, but also positions us importantly for continued outperformance. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian for a more detailed discussion of our operating results. Brian?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
... Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report another quarter of outstanding operating results delivered by the Brixmor team, as demand to be in our centers from a wide range of high-quality operators shows no signs of slowing down. The well-capitalized tenants we are attracting and the rents we are achieving demonstrate not only the continued transformation of our portfolio, but the unmatched strength of the Brixmor platform. Our leasing activity during the quarter allowed us to achieve records once again in overall anchor and small shop occupancy, with small shops growing sequentially for the fourteenth consecutive quarter to 90.8%.
Record occupancy levels are also enabling our team to push rental rates higher in both new and renewal leases, which was also evident in our results, as we achieved record renewal growth of 19% across 195 renewal leases executed in the quarter, to pair with the over 50% growth in our comparable new leases, which Jim highlighted. As encouraging as these results are, what's even more encouraging are the tenants we delivered them with. Tenants like Ulta, HomeGoods, Rally House, Skechers, and Boot Barn, along with the company's first new lease with Wayfair in Greensboro, North Carolina, yet another online retailer that is recognizing the importance of having a physical store footprint.
We also continued to grow our grocery anchor percentage during the quarter, adding another Sprouts Farmers Market to proactively backfill a Conn's location in Knoxville, Tennessee, at close to triple the in-place rent, demonstrating once again the opportunity that we have in our below-market leases and the speed at which our team can capitalize on them. The Conn's boxes are among the few that are expected to come back to us at a time when box vacancy is at historic lows for the portfolio, and our team is well on their way to backfilling these spaces in markets like Raleigh and Houston with better tenants at higher rents. Briefly on reinvestment, to expand on what Jim highlighted, we are very excited to bring on $100 million of accretive, pre-leased, transformative redevelopment projects during the quarter, led by the second phase at Pointe Orlando and Block 59 in suburban Chicago.
Phase two of Pointe Orlando is coming online at the perfect time, as we prepare to open Live! at the Pointe in partnership with The Cordish Companies later this fall, and Block 59 includes a great mix of well-capitalized restaurant tenants, complementing the grocery anchor component of the shopping center in one of the most desirable suburbs in the Chicago market. Looking forward, we remain encouraged by the depth of retailer demand and the forward and legal pipeline, which continues to grow despite the records we continue to set in occupancy. Our team continues to be laser-focused on quickly converting this demand into open, rent-paying tenants, which, as Steve will highlight further, gives us great visibility on future growth.
Before handing the call over to Steve, I would like to congratulate him, Helaine, and Kevin on their well-deserved promotions, and thank Jim and the board for the opportunity to serve as president, as well as the broader Brixmor team for their continued support. There has never been a better time to be at Brixmor, and I'm grateful to work with the best team in the business. Steve?
Steve Gallagher (EVP and CFO)
Thanks, Brian. I'm pleased to report on another very strong quarter and improved forward outlook, reflecting the strength of our business plan execution and the compelling growth opportunity within the Brixmor portfolio. NAREIT FFO is $0.54 per share in the second quarter, driven by same-property NOI growth of 5.5%. Base rent growth contributed 380 basis points to same-property NOI growth this quarter, reflecting continued strong leasing spreads, growth in billed occupancy, and improved retention rates. In addition, net expense reimbursements contributed 140 basis points, driven by the growth in billed occupancy and a decrease in real estate tax expense, primarily due to reduced bills in our Chicago market. Revenues deemed uncollectible contributed 20 basis points to same-property NOI growth due to higher collection rates and lower tenant disruption.
We are very pleased with the continued execution by the entire Brixmor team as we ended the quarter with a 400 basis point spread between leased and billed occupancy, and our signed but not commenced pool totaled $65 million, which includes $55 million of net new rent. The size of the pool decreased only $3 million, despite commencing approximately $17 million of annualized base rent in the quarter. We expect the vast majority of ABR and signed but not commenced pool to commence over the next eighteen months. From a balance sheet perspective, we repaid $300 million of our 3.65% bonds that matured in June 2024 with the proceeds from our January bond offering.
At June 30, we had total liquidity of $1.7 billion, and our debt to EBITDA on a current quarter annualized basis was 5.6x, leaving us well positioned to execute on our business plan and with the flexibility to opportunistically access the capital markets. In terms of our forward outlook, given the continued strength in the portfolio, we have increased our Same-Property NOI growth to a range of 4.25%-5%, comprised of a 425-475 basis point contribution from base rent as commencements from the Signed But Not Commenced pool accelerates base rent, rent growth in the second half of the year. Additionally, the improvements to the credit quality of our tenants and strong payment trends continues to drive outperformance in revenues deemed uncollectible.
We now expect revenues deemed uncollectible to end the year at 50-75 basis points of total revenues versus the prior range of 75-110 basis points. In conjunction with the increase in our Same-Property NOI expectation, we have raised our guidance for 2024 NAREIT FFO to a range of $2.11-$2.14 per share. I would like to thank Jim and the board for the CFO opportunity, as well as the larger Brixmor team who supported me along the way. And with that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.
... The confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for your questions. Our first question has come from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.
Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, thanks. Good morning, and congrats to everyone on their promotions. First question, I just wanted to ask about acquisitions. I'm wondering if there's any change in view around acquisitions and the company's position toward capital recycling and/or capital raising at all here, as we move forward, just either given some of the changes, you know, in the C-suite and/or given, you know, the improvement in the company's cost of capital more recently.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You know, I think, Todd, it's Jim. I think the big change has been honestly, the opportunities that we're seeing. So we're always going to be opportunistic and direct our activity to those that we think can create huge value for the company. And we're pleased with what we're seeing out there in the transaction market, particularly in our core markets, where we've successfully clustered investments. For example, we mentioned the acquisition of the Fresh Market in Hilton Head, which further grows our presence in that Coastal Carolina market. So, you know, we're pleased with the opportunities that we're seeing and our ability to execute on them.
Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Do you anticipate being a net acquirer in the second half of the year? And can you talk about, you know, sort of the going-in yields that you're seeing for acquisitions that you're underwriting today?
Mark Horgan (EVP and Chief Investment Officer)
Yeah, look, as Jim mentioned, we're always going to be opportunistic with respect to acquisitions, and we're certainly seeing a much more active market over the last few months. And, you know, frankly, what's most interesting about the transaction—the transactions market today is that sellers really appear to be more interested in kind of quiet, direct conversations with folks like Brixmor, that aren't relying upon external joint venture capital or frankly, even the debt market to source deals or finance deals. So this ramp activity that you're seeing us with a couple of acquisitions that we've made this year really is leading to a more active pipeline on the acquisition side. So we do expect to be a bit more acquisitive here in the second half.
But as Jim's mentioned over the years, we will always be balanced and disciplined with respect to our capital allocation on, on, on acquisitions. With respect to yields, you know, year to date, the yields for what we bought is in the high sixes. As we look at our forward opportunities from a going-in perspective, they are in the same yield, so that high six cap rate range. But also, when you think about our cap recycling, what's important to realize is we are a hold IRR-type investor. So when we look at assets we've sold, we're seeing a pretty big spread between those IRRs of what we're selling and the IRRs for the assets that we're acquiring.
Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, that's helpful. And Steve, real quick, in terms of the net recoveries related to the lower property taxes in the quarter that you mentioned, how much of that was, you know, sort of one time in nature versus what might be more recurring, you know, as we think about lower property taxes potentially going forward?
Steve Gallagher (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, you know, I think when you look, think about the total impact of the quarter, about $1 million of it related sort of the way Chicago bills is in arrears related to 2023. So that's sort of the non-recurring aspect, but about $500,000 will recur in a year and then recur going forward. And I think the important thing to remember with that is, ultimately, it's lowering our occupancy cost to our tenants and will allow us to push rent on those renewals in the future.
Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, that's helpful. $500,000 in the year or $500,000 in the quarter? So $2 million-
Steve Gallagher (EVP and CFO)
It'll be $500,000 in the year.
Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
On an annualized basis. $500,000 in the year. Okay.
Steve Gallagher (EVP and CFO)
Yep.
Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
All right, got it. Thank you.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
Yeah, Todd-
Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
The only other thing I would highlight there is, you know, we're benefiting also from higher recovery rates as our occupancy, our billed occupancy moves up. So while we did benefit in the quarter from the favorable tax assessments, you should expect us as we continue to drive, billed occupancy, recover more and generate better margins.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Dori Kesten with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your questions.
Dori Kesten (Director)
Thanks, good morning. And again, congrats on the promotions. Can you give us a sense of any incremental G&A that may come along with those?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
On balance, we don't expect incremental G&A as we look for other efficiencies.
Dori Kesten (Director)
Okay. And then on Conn's and Big Lots, what kind of retailers have shown interest in those spaces, and where may rent spreads pencil out? And just anything irregular to note about potential TI or timing to backfill?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Dori, hey, hey, this is Brian. Just as it relates to Conn's first, it's a pretty low exposure for us, about 30 basis points. As I talked about, these boxes may come back to us in the tightest supply environment that we've seen. The types of tenants that we're backfilling them with are the types of tenants that, you know, continue to expand in the open-air space, like those in the value apparel segment, sorry, and especially grocery segment, like the first Conn's that we proactively took back, where we were able to put Sprouts in and triple the rent. As it relates to the Big Lots rents, in particular, those rents are $7 just below $8 a foot.
We've been signing anchor leases around $16 a foot over the past year, and you can expect a similar level of upside, maybe not double, but-
... particularly, we got a significant amount as it relates to those Big Lots spaces. So we feel very encouraged, as again, we're not getting a lot of box spaces back, and it's the tightest box supply environment that we've seen in terms of our ability to quickly address them to the extent we get a few boxes back this year.
Dori Kesten (Director)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Craig Mailman with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.
Craig Mailman (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, and congrats again, everyone, on the promotions. Jim, just wanna go back to your kind of the end of Todd's questioning on, on NOI margins there. I know you guys ticked up to about 76%, but you guys are getting, you know, every quarter, it seems like another record on, on leased occupancy for anchors and, and small shop. Just as the portfolio continues to grow, you guys push through some fixed CAM, you get some, you know, better outcomes on tax appeals. Where do you think NOI margins should shake out for your portfolio, you know, over the next year or two as this SNO pipeline commences? Like, what's a good normalized level to think about?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
Rather than giving you specific guidance on a margin, I think we've got a few hundred basis points of room. You know, I think you're gonna see us continue to realize that, as you point out, as our billed occupancy grows, because there is a 400 basis point difference between leased and billed. So as that, as that occupancy delivers, obviously, we're gonna be recovering a higher and higher percentage, which, as you also mentioned, is augmented by the increased penetration of fixed CAM that we have in the portfolio. So I do expect to see continued growth in margin. I think we have more than a few hundred basis points of room. I'd rather not give you a specific number for guidance.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
And Craig, I would just add, our team's been very intentional in terms of improving CAM clauses in our leases, eliminating CAM caps, eliminating carve-outs. You mentioned fixed CAM. We've been very intentional with that as well. Where we've been deploying that across the portfolio, we have a good understanding of where the expense trajectory is at those properties. We've been growing that at 4% across both small shop and anchors. So in addition to everything we're doing on the base rent front, our team's been very intentional in terms of improving those CAM clauses, which is really helping with margins as well.
Mark Horgan (EVP and Chief Investment Officer)
And Craig, the last thing I would add is we look at acquisitions, this whole... You know, when we think about acquisitions, we do buy from a lot of folks who are not large institutional owners like we are, and they don't have the ability to hit some of those margin topics that Brian's hitting on. So we think that's also a piece of the growth in deals that we buy on the acquisition side.
Craig Mailman (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
That, that's helpful. Then maybe sticking on the acquisition side, I don't know, Mark or Jim, it sounds like more of the kind of pipeline you guys have gotten recently is off market or, you know, softly marketed deals. Is that, am I reading into that correctly, and you guys are kind of less of the buyer for the fully marketed deals, and that's where you're gonna get kind of the better opportunities, to not compete with maybe some of the high net worth guys or other people who are just all-cash buyers and, have been paying kind of bigger prices more recently?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You know, we continue to see a mix of deals marketed and off-market. I think Mark's point, though, is that we are a preferred buyer in this capital markets environment, given our liquidity, given our presence in the markets that we're focused on, and that gives us an advantage position. And we're also pleased by the just growth in the overall pipeline of opportunities that we're seeing that meet our return hurdles.
Craig Mailman (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Greg McGinnis with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your questions.
Greg McGinniss (Director)
Hey, good morning. So leasing obviously remains quite healthy, but there are certain tenant categories facing some pressure, like HomeGoods and art, pet, and office supply. Are you still renewing tenants in that category, or how are you handling those expirations when they come up?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah, Greg, hey, this is Brian. I mean, we look at these on an individual basis. Our—for instance, our office supply exposure overall has dropped considerably. There still are office supply locations that are doing very well, that are Four-Wall EBITDA positive in our portfolio. So some of those do renew, but you think about some of the Staples locations, in particular, that we've taken back proactively and backfilled with the likes of Ross and grocers and other folks that we've been doing a lot of business with. So it's really gonna be center specific. We've got a number of our pet store locations that continue to do very well, and I think in this environment, we're gonna continue to be opportunistic, where we see weaker tenants, really, in any category, to be able to upgrade those spaces at higher rents.
And then, particularly on the anchor side, where we do have a lot of demand, we also have a very low rent basis in terms of what's expiring over the next few years. We've got rents on those spaces expiring at close to $9, and we're signing them at $16. So it really depends on the situation, but where we do see weaker tenants in any category, we're gonna use the opportunity to upgrade.
Greg McGinniss (Director)
... And so for specific boxes, how do you go about evaluating kind of their productivity? Do you get sales information from them or placer data? How are you going about kind of deciding if they're a higher risk location or not, that you might need to be backfilling or proactively filling?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
We get both. I mean, we get sales for the majority of the portfolio, and we do get traffic for all our tenants. That has certainly helped us be a lot smarter. The other thing is we've got great relationships across our platform, particularly on the national account side, where even where we don't get reported sales, we'll often get a number of those volumes in the conversations with our tenant, and that's conversations with our tenants, and that's because of the trust our team's built. So we do utilize the tools that you're talking about, whether that's Placer, whether that's other tools related to traffic, but we also get sales from the bulk of our tenants. We're also adding sales reporting when we have renewals coming up in some in leases where we're not getting that today.
And then again, the relationships that we have with these retailers really shows the trust where we're able to get some of those sales volumes as well.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
Yeah, and you know, we're-
Greg McGinniss (Director)
Sorry.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
Go ahead.
Greg McGinniss (Director)
No, please.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
No, you know, we're in a great supply-demand environment that allows us to drive the optimal outcome for space as it comes due. And you see it in the spreads. You see it in the renewal spreads, as well as the new leasing spreads. So we're not only taking this opportunity to upgrade the portfolio and continue to upgrade tenant quality, we're also using it to drive true organic growth, and it's in the numbers.
Greg McGinniss (Director)
Okay, thanks. And just one final point on that is, Brian, how many of the stores or what percentage of the big box stores are you getting individual store sales on?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
We get sales from about 70% of the portfolio today. We get it for almost all of our grocers, and that's 70% across, all size ranges. So I don't have the particular anchor number today, but again, that percentage of tenants that are reporting sales has improved as we've been able to add sales reporting as renewals come up. So we've been very intentional about that, and I expect that to continue to grow.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
As Brian alluded to, you know, our national accounts team is held accountable to understand productivity where sales reporting isn't required. When you supplement that with the Placer.ai data in terms of traffic, which is a great proxy for sales productivity, you have a pretty good view, which not only helps you understand the health of the underlying tenant, but also, you know, how you best drive the economics upon renewal.
Greg McGinniss (Director)
Great. Thanks, Jim. Thanks, Brian.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
Yeah.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your questions.
Alexander Goldfarb (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, and mazel tov on the promotions all around. Just a few two questions, or I guess one question, one follow-up. Going back to the tenants, you know, clearly, McDonald's out with their news on consumer pushback, it's been sort of a common theme for others, especially in the food and area. You know, just an update on what you're seeing across your retail portfolio, are retailers really talking and concerned about changes in consumer shopping and purchase patterns? Or is this just people reallocating a little bit within each of the different categories, and overall, it's really not affecting the business in any way that affects their leasing?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You know, the leasing decision is a long-term decision and not certainly driven by quarterly performance, as the retailers are looking at their pipelines out into 2025, 2026 and beyond, and they're committed to the stores. You know, as we look at our real-time traffic data, we're actually very pleased with how traffic at our centers and our major tenants within those centers continues to improve as we execute our strategy. And in terms of, are we hearing it from tenants? Really, quite to the contrary. You know, the tenants still are in a posture where they're trying to get their store opening plans filled, and they're being very aggressive to do that.
Alexander Goldfarb (Managing Director)
Okay, and then just to follow up, is looking at your leasing, the signed but not yet commenced, the wider gap is with the small shop, the under 10,000 sq ft, and presumably that's the more lucrative, you know, economics for you guys. Steve, can you just give a, a sort of, how we should think about, you know, the impact to earnings from a 100 basis point impact, a 100 basis point increase in occupancy from small shop versus a 100 basis point increase in over 10,000 sq ft? Just trying to get a sense of the impact to FFO, 'cause I have to believe that it's much more advantageous to boost from the smaller shop than the bigger shop as your occupancy increases.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah, I mean, I don't know that I can quantify the exact input, but I think your general thesis is correct, right? Those smaller shop tenants are gonna pay a higher rent and have a higher contribution to recoveries than you would on the anchor side.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
That follows through when you, when you look at the average rents we're achieving, both on the anchors and the small shop. Your, your point is correct, that there's a greater multiplier, that's part of that $65 million of signed but not commenced rent.
Alexander Goldfarb (Managing Director)
Okay, thank you.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, we ask that you please limit yourself to one or two questions only. Our next question comes from the line of Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.
Caitlin Burrows (VP)
Hi, good morning, everyone. Maybe just another pickup on the impact of occupancy improvements. You had a good pickup in billed occupancy in the quarter and talked about how the SNO pipeline is still quite large. So what's your near- to medium-term expectations for billed occupancy? Can this sort of pace of openings and rent commencements continue or maybe even accelerate from what we saw in the quarter?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
... Caitlin, hey, this is Brian. You normally would expect billed occupancy to continue to trend higher in the back half of the year as we have kind of the bulk of those openings happening in the late third, fourth quarter, particularly with anchors. Now, you, depending on if we get a few store closures back, you may see a dip in that, but that would be the normal course billed occupancy trajectory as we head into the end of the year. And again, we just talked about the spread between leased and billed, particularly on the small shops. We'd start to have a number of those shops coming online at year-end and even as to the balance as we get into next year. And the pipeline continues to be very strong.
We're very encouraged just with the depth of demand and the size of the leasing pipeline, despite the fact that we're raising occupancy to these levels. But overall, the trajectory, you should expect to see that to rise as we go through the balance of the year.
Caitlin Burrows (VP)
Got it, okay. And then just another one on pricing. So, I mean, your new lease spreads have been very strong for a very long time, and this quarter was a record level. The renewal pricing is also really strong. I guess, on the option side, is there anything you can do to limit kind of the drag from the impact of options? And is that anything you can do near term, or is it more related to leases you sign today and the eventual options they may or may not have in the future?
Steve Gallagher (EVP and CFO)
Since we began, our focus has been on giving fewer options, and we've been very successful, Brian and team, as we've been executing the plan to do that. And so, you know, not only not giving options, but giving fewer options in situations where they're otherwise required. And that's really how you impact that. It's something that occurs over time as you execute fewer and fewer options across the portfolio.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
And Caitlin, I would just add, too, that we're making incremental progress, even when we have to give an option, right? Like, in this environment, where maybe those option increases in the past with anchor tenants were 10%, and our team's pushing them to 12.5% or 15%. To Jim's point, maybe you're eliminating anchor number of anchor options from, say, 4 to 2. The other thing that we've done is we've introduced the fair market value concept that was pretty much a California phenomenon into other parts of the country where we've had to give those, primarily with national tenants. We're giving almost no options with local tenants. And to Jim's point, it's something our team is very focused on.
If you were to sit in committee on a Friday and hear our Head of Leasing, David Gerstenhaber, he's asking that question as deals come into committee, "Do you have to give that option? Can you reduce those options?" So it's something we're going to continue to remain focused on, but something we've been doing for a while.
Caitlin Burrows (VP)
Great. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.
Juan Sanabria (Managing Director)
Hi, just. Thanks for the time. Just a question with regards to the same-store NOI guidance. Obviously, it's, there's a slowdown implied in the second half. Can you just give us some color or details around what's driving the slower assumed second half, and what are the key variables within the guidance range?
Steve Gallagher (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, you know, I think the first thing you got to think about when you think about the Same-Property NOI is just the growth in base rent, right? Because ultimately, the growth in Same-Property NOI is going to be largely dependent on that growth. And for the first half of the year, it was 380 basis points contribution to the Same-Property NOI. And you'll see, you know, implied in our, in our base rent guidance of 425-475 basis points contribution, you really see that starting to ramp up, sort of what Brian was talking about within the Signed But Not Commenced pool. Obviously, you know, in the first half of the year, bad debt as a percentage of total revenues was 20 basis points.
We talked on the last quarter call that that did benefit from just the timing of real estate tax collections, and we expect that to be a headwind to the back half of the year as we, you know, get back to that, you know, what we're expecting to be a total run rate of 50-75 basis points. So I think that deceleration in, in the bad debt is sort of offsetting a lot of the acceleration that you're seeing in the base rent line.
Juan Sanabria (Managing Director)
Okay, great. Thanks. And then just on the acquisitions pipeline, I think you mentioned $200 million in the prepared comments. Just curious on, on the types of assets. Are there larger assets, or smaller, kind of more traditional neighborhood grocery anchored centers? Just curious on where you're seeing the, the opportunity set, with regards to kind of what's in the pipeline today.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah, that pipeline is, you know, is larger. The assets are larger than what we bought in the first half of the year, in part because what we bought in the first half of the year were smaller. So it's really assets that look a lot like the meat of our portfolio. And importantly, they're assets where we see the ability to drive strong growth. They sit within our footprint, and we have been targeting a bunch of those acquisitions for quite some time. So we're excited about the opportunity we're seeing in the existing pipeline, and frankly, beyond the existing pipeline, as we continue to try to dig out deals across the country.
Juan Sanabria (Managing Director)
And maybe just one more, if I could be a little greedy here. You talked about foot traffic being solid and having an increased amount of data points on retailer sales. But, given the comments Alex made about the more cautious comments by both luxury and low-end retailers, are you seeing any slowdown in retail sales from your retailer base across the portfolio?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
We're not.
Juan Sanabria (Managing Director)
Okay, thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Floris van Dijkum with Compass Point. Please proceed with your questions.
Floris Van Dijkum (Managing Director)
Hey, morning, guys, and congrats on the new titles.
... So following up on that, on that, acquisition pipeline, maybe if you can talk a little bit about, what you're seeing in terms of pricing. And maybe to switch the question a little bit more, are you targeting value-add acquisitions, or is it mostly, complementary or infill acquisitions, just like what you've done in, in Hilton Head, next to existing centers?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You know, I'll let Mark handle the broader pipeline for us, but we really are looking at kind of core plus value-added type opportunities, where we can bring our better platform to bear to drive better outcomes in rent and NOI growth, additional asset densification, et cetera. So you're not seeing us, you know, playing on the core side, but the encouraging thing is that we're finding really attractive opportunities within our core markets to further cluster infill-type investments, where we understand where the market rents are, we understand what the tenant demand is to be in that particular center, and we believe we can generate above average growth.
Mark Horgan (EVP and Chief Investment Officer)
Yeah, I think it's well said, Jim. When we look at acquisitions, we're also thinking about those dispositions. I think it's important, I said it earlier, when we're selling assets, we're selling assets where we really maximize value and maximize that IRR going forward. When we're looking at that pipeline, we're just seeing much better IRR buying versus what we're selling, which we hope will contribute to the long-term growth here.
Floris Van Dijkum (Managing Director)
Great. And presumably, those are the acquisitions and dispositions. Are they gonna be, you know, similar type cap rates?
Mark Horgan (EVP and Chief Investment Officer)
Yeah, it's interesting. When we look at our what we've done year to date, as we talked about last quarter, our blended cap rate for the what we sold year to date is into the fours. We're buying today into the high sixes. I think that will even out over time.
Floris Van Dijkum (Managing Director)
Great. Then maybe my follow-up question on, I noticed, obviously, great new leasing spreads, but you're spending a lot of money to achieve some of those spreads. I think, I calculate $205 million... $205 a sq ft in lease costs this past quarter. Maybe talk about-- I suspect it has to do with some of the Conn's boxes or some of the other boxes that you're, you know, transitioning to Sprouts or other grocers. But if you could talk a little bit about how long will those elevated leasing costs persist in your view, or do you think that that's gonna slow down at some point and, you know, have or go even lower?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Of course. Hey, this is Brian. I'm not tying to the, the $206 a foot, but I, I would just point to the fact that net effective rents were a record for the portfolio this quarter. We show you the net effective rent, so you can ultimately see the impact of costs there. They're coming off a record from last year. What you're seeing in terms of the leasing CapEx, it was somewhat elevated last year versus historicals, and it'll remain at that level this year in terms of the TIs. That's just because of the fact that our team has leased so much of the space that we took back last year and leased it very quickly.
I'd say on average, the box backfills that we've done, we've talked about in the past, we average around $50 a foot for the Bed Bath spaces. That's consistent with what you're seeing. Where we are spending a bit more, like the Sprouts example that you gave, we're getting it back, we're getting it back in rent, certainly. I'd say just for CapEx overall, though, we have been very prudent in terms of where we've been spending. You see our maintenance CapEx, now it was down last year versus 2022. It's trending down again and will be down by year-end, really reflective of the changes that we've made and the improvements that we've made across the portfolio and that leveling off. Our reinvestment spend, we talked about that being $150 million-$200 million a year.
We're gonna be at the high end of that range this year as we bring on some of these really strong projects, like those that Jim and I both highlighted. But to your point, as occupancy increases and there continues to be demand, our team's leveraging that demand to have tenants take more existing conditions. Tenants are getting much more flexible in terms of the age of the roof, the age of the HVAC. So you'd expect that to moderate. But I think on the whole, why you're seeing some of the leasing costs somewhat elevated, is just because our team has addressed so much of that space so quickly.
Floris Van Dijkum (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks, guys.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, we ask that you please limit yourself to one or two questions only. Our next question has come from the line of Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho. Please proceed with your questions.
Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director and Senior REIT Analyst)
Hey, thank you for taking my question. I wanted to go back to, to Big Lots, for a moment. You have more exposure there than Conn's, I think it's 27 boxes, 70 bps of ABR. I'm curious what you've heard on how many of those stores they might be looking to close in your portfolio. And we're hearing that they may be looking at subleasing some of their own space directly to third parties. So I'm curious if you're seeing any of that, and if you expect that to perhaps limit your opportunity to get back some of those boxes and benefits of re-leasing yourself. Thanks.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah. Haendel, hey, this is Brian. So just as it relates to Big Lots, we've reduced our exposure again by 30% since prior to the pandemic. We've signed leases with the likes of Aldi and Sprouts and Ross here recently on recently recaptured Big Lots spaces. We did have 4 stores that were on the initial closure list. Two of those are already leased, one with a great fitness use, one with a great off-price operator. So as we look, and we don't have any additional color in terms of the number of stores that we will get back or the timing as it relates to anything announcing additional store closures.
What I could say, though, is we have Big Lots boxes in markets like Philadelphia and Dallas, and we'd be taking some of this space back in the tightest box supply environment that we've ever seen. So, we feel really good about the demand we're seeing for that space. We were very opportunistic early in the Bed Bath discussions, too, about taking space back proactively, and we'll look at that as well, because we want to ensure that we control our own destiny. But we'll be prudent with those decisions as we assess them center by center.
Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director and Senior REIT Analyst)
Are you hearing anything on the re-leasing of the boxes themselves to third parties?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah, I think, look, they probably see the same value that we do. And again, we showed up at the auction. We were for Bed Bath. We were able to get control of one of our boxes that we've already leased in New England. So we'll assess that as they come along. And I would say, look, our team has already been very proactive. Again, there were four stores on a closure list that just came out. Two of them are already leased. So we've been getting ahead of a number of these names, particularly when we hear of potential store closures or potential weakness, and feel really confident in our ability to capitalize on them, and we'll be opportunistic as it relates to proactively recapturing that space.
Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director and Senior REIT Analyst)
Got it. Thank you. Just to follow up, you mentioned Bed Bath. The new anchor lease spreads were very high in the quarter. I'm curious if any of that included any of the Bed Bath backfills, and remind us again of the timing of the cash flow impact to expect from the Bed Bath backfill?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah, the Bed Bath. Well, just starting on the cash flow, that's already started to come online. We do expect the bulk of that to come online next year. We're effectively finished with those boxes. Interestingly, it didn't really include the Bed Bath because we had already leased all those boxes in the quarters prior to this. I think what this shows you is the low rent bases that we have and the opportunity that we have across the portfolio, not just with one tenant or one part of the country. It was fairly broad-based where we saw that this quarter. But ultimately, we're thrilled with how quickly our team is really addressing any space that we've been getting back in this environment, and expect us to continue to do that.
Haendel St. Juste (Managing Director and Senior REIT Analyst)
All right. Thank you, and congrats on the promotion.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Thanks again, Gus.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew Reale (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, this is Andrew Reale on for Jeff. Thanks for taking our questions. West Center is about 99% leased. What's the lease rate at Fresh Market Shoppes? And can you just talk more about the opportunity set at the two assets, if there are any larger expirations in the near term, and what mark-to-market opportunities look like?
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Sure. So at West Center, that if you've looked at that on the site plan, it's really an adjacent, an adjacency to the center we'll behind it, called Three Villages. And that's really unlocking the opportunity to figure out what the overall plan is for Three Villages when you include that out parcel. So that vacant box you mentioned is the one at West Villa—I'm sorry, at Village Center behind West Center, which is early, but really exciting steps here in the first couple of months of ownership. With respect to Hilton Head, it's 100% occupied, and what we see there is an asset that's been undermanaged and under-rented, and we're very excited about the opportunity to drive low risk, high growth there.
Andrew Reale (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, thanks. You also spoke to adding a few more repositioning and redevelopment projects to the pipeline this quarter. Just curious if it's becoming any easier to find these types of opportunities. Any color on your opportunity set to retouch assets and how that's trending would be helpful. Thanks.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah, you know, it's really the advantage our platform brings. As a team, we look at acquisition opportunities, and we really are viewing them through the lens of a value-added investor, where we have the opportunity to raise rents, but also reposition, densify, and add necessary uses to the acquisition. So the nice part about our strategy is that we've successfully harvested significant amount of opportunity in our existing portfolio. Importantly, a significant amount of opportunity remains, $several hundred million, that we expect to execute over the next couple of years. And then we continually add that, as we've demonstrated in South Florida, as I think we'll demonstrate in some of these more recent acquisitions, the opportunity to add value through incremental reinvestment.
Andrew Reale (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions.
Samir Khanal (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, Brian, good morning. I guess, I mean, you talked about the Conn's boxes, the Big Lots boxes. I mean, just as we think about the setup in the next year, what does that tenant exposure, sort of that watch list look like, I guess, for the next 6-12 months? Thanks.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah, I'd just start by saying that the credit base of this portfolio is as strong as it's ever been. We put in a rigorous underwriting process coming out of the pandemic with our financial asset management team, and that has really paid off. And you can see it pay it off in record low move-outs for the portfolio. You can see it paying off in terms of the renewal growth that we've been able to drive, because we've got better tenants in there that are driving more traffic. Again, as it relates to those two specific situations, we have a very low exposure with Conn's at 30 basis points. We've already leased one of the boxes. The other boxes are in places like Raleigh, Houston, and Atlanta, which are great markets.
Ultimately, as it relates to Big Lots, we have-
... consistently been lowering our exposure there and backfilling them with better tenants at higher rents. So, I think it's encouraging that we've already got leases on some of the stores that they've announced. And as we think about it, ultimately into next year, you know, we are looking to see how we can use this as an opportunity to continue to position ourselves to upgrade these spaces.
Samir Khanal (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, got it. And I guess, Jim, just shifting over to you, you know, you clearly have occupancy that continues to go up. Spreads are strong, looks like acquisitions may even be picking up here, at least as we saw in the quarter. I mean, I guess, what's the biggest risk to the portfolio or the sector at this time, you think? Thanks.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You know, I think we're really well-positioned, even for a slowdown, given where our rent basis is. And it's a point I've made many times, that in a strong environment such as the one that we're in, we're positioned to outperform, largely because of that rent basis. Should you see a slowdown in retailer demand, which we're not seeing any signs of, again, retailers are doing business out to 2025 and 2026. But were we to, we think we're particularly well-positioned, given the transformation of the portfolio, given our rent basis, and given our overall execution. So, I don't see any major risks as we look out ahead, you know, beyond general economic, trends and cycles. But even given that, I believe we're really well positioned.
I'm also very proud of how we've handled our balance sheet, how we continue to drive improvements in overall debt to EBITDA, how we continue to capitalize in this environment on demand for our fixed income paper, to continue to term out our balance sheet and put us in a position where we have $1.7 billion of liquidity and no need for external capital to fund our business plan for the next several years. So when you think about, again, rent basis, conservative capital structure, upside, the reposition of the portfolio, I think it's an all-weather plan. I think it's one that positions us particularly well, whatever the economic climate is.
Samir Khanal (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you, Jim.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions. Hi, Linda, can you check if you're self muted, please?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
Operator, we can put her back in the queue.
Linda Tsai (Senior Analyst)
Oh, sorry. I actually-
Jim Taylor (CEO)
There you are. Hey, Linda.
Linda Tsai (Senior Analyst)
Yeah.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
We're missing you there.
Linda Tsai (Senior Analyst)
Just with the closures ticking a touch higher in the second half, reverting you to the historical bad debt run rate, from where you sit today, could bad debt range 75-110 bps for 2025?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You know, I think what one, it certainly could. I think what we've been pleased by is the overall improvement in credit quality within the portfolio and how that's coming through in terms of the bad debt performance. We do expect a greater amount of revenues deemed uncollectible in the second half of the year, as Steve alluded to. And I don't want to give guidance yet on 2025, but I would frame it against the overall improvement in the portfolio.
Linda Tsai (Senior Analyst)
And then, would you expect, just given the strength in your overall portfolio, you know, what's kind of like the longer term same-store run rate, in your portfolio over the next few years?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
I think we're well positioned to achieve that same-store growth in the 4%+ range over the next several years.
Linda Tsai (Senior Analyst)
Thanks.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Mike Mueller with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael Mueller (Analyst)
Thanks. Hi, just a quick one here. We know the redevelopment pipeline is sizable, but are you evaluating any new ground-up development opportunities as well?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You know, we've been approached by developers, we've been approached by certain tenants regarding ground up development opportunities, and to date, they haven't penciled. You know, you've got a higher risk, a lower return, and it just doesn't compare favorably to the opportunities we have to reinvest in our existing assets. So, I do think it's gonna take a while to see new ground up development of any meaningful amount, not only because of the higher risks and lower returns, but also because it's just a difficult environment in which to finance that type of activity. So we've seen some, but I don't expect a material increase in the next couple of years.
Michael Mueller (Analyst)
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Jim Taylor (CEO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Ki Bin Kim (Managing Director)
Thanks. Good morning. Just a couple of follow-ups. You added a couple of new projects to your redevelopment pipeline. Can you just remind us how you define the yields, the 9% yields that you're getting, and if that includes landlord work? And second, if you look at the trend on rents and construction costs, does the next batch of potential redevelopment projects is that yield potential has it increased over the past year or has it or relatively stable?
Jim Taylor (CEO)
Yeah, that return is the incremental rent over the project level costs and, yeah, the total project level cost. As we look out in the pipeline, because of the strong demand environment we're seeing.
...actually seeing positive upward pressure in some of those returns, as you saw in terms of the overall portfolio of reinvestment growing from an average of eight to nine. We're encouraged by what we're seeing looking forward.
Ki Bin Kim (Managing Director)
Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
You bet.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Omotayo Okesanya with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
Omotayo Okesanya (Managing Director and Head of US REIT Research)
Hi. Yes, good morning. Let me add my own congratulations to the whole team. Quick question on Kroger, Albertsons, and kind of the latest developments with, again, the court case getting accelerated to September. Just curious what you guys are hearing, whether it kind of changes how you guys think, are thinking about, your exposure to those two, grocers.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Yeah, hey, this is Brian. We don't have much more to report outside of what's been in the news. We were encouraged by the fact that none of our stores were on the initial divestiture list. We feel good about our fleets in really either scenario. We've got great stores that have been reinvested in for both Kroger and Albertsons. The markets where we do have some overlap are in a very tight supply environment, some of the tightest supply that we have in markets like Dallas and Southern California and Denver. We have said and continue to believe that a merger would be good for both companies and have been watching this very closely, but feel really good about our fleet.
I mean, these stores produce higher sales volumes than the over $700 a foot that we're getting from grocers across the portfolio. So, and we're really encouraged by the fact that they have been invested in here over the last few years.
Omotayo Okesanya (Managing Director and Head of US REIT Research)
Thank you.
Brian Finnegan (President and COO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Stacey Slater for closing remarks.
Stacey Slater (SVP of Investor Relations and Capital Markets)
Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Enjoy the rest of your summers.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.