Peabody Energy - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 revenue rose 14% sequentially to $1.01B and modestly beat S&P Global consensus (~$0.99B), while GAAP diluted EPS was a loss of $0.58 due to $54M of terminated acquisition costs; adjusted EBITDA was $99.5M. On an S&P-normalized basis, EPS was slightly positive versus a negative consensus, implying a beat on normalized EPS despite GAAP charges (see Estimates Context).*
• Operations executed well: PRB adjusted EBITDA rose 20% QoQ to $51.7M on higher shipments and lower unit costs, seaborne thermal volumes recovered, and met coal costs reached multi‑year lows; cash ended at $603M with liquidity >$950M.
• Guidance improved again: Q4 volumes/costs raised in seaborne thermal and PRB; full-year 2025 targets raised (PRB volume 84–86Mt, costs $11.25–$11.75/t; seaborne met costs lowered to $112.5–$117.5/t).
• Strategic catalysts: Centurion mine longwall on track for Feb 2026 and expected to lift met realizations to ~80% of benchmark in 2026 (from ~70% in 2025); Board declared $0.075 dividend.
• Narrative for 2026+ strengthened by U.S. power demand/AI data centers, extended coal plant lives, reduced U.S. federal coal royalty rate and a 2.5% production tax credit beginning 2026; management emphasized PRB demand and pricing tailwinds and the optionality from rare earths evaluation in the PRB.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• PRB momentum: Q3 PRB EBITDA up 20% QoQ to $51.7M; shipments +10% YoY and per‑ton margins +39%, aided by the 5.5% federal royalty reduction (net ~$0.40/t benefit).
• Cost discipline: Seaborne met costs fell >$10/t QoQ to $108.31/t; segment returned to $27.8M adj. EBITDA as mix included 210kt Centurion premium hard coking coal.
• Management tone: “We have designed Peabody to produce positive EBITDA even during the toughest times,” highlighting a fortress balance sheet and free‑cash‑flow leverage as Centurion ramps.

What Went Wrong

• GAAP EPS pressure: $(0.58) diluted EPS from a $54M charge tied to the terminated Anglo transaction; year‑to‑date related charges $75M; arbitration/legal costs expected ~$5M/year going forward.
• Other U.S. Thermal headwinds: Bear Run dragline outage (5 weeks) lifted costs and trimmed volumes; segment EBITDA fell to $6.9M (from $13.5M in Q2).
• Continued seaborne pricing softness: Despite stable met benchmark, seaborne thermal revenue/ton remained pressured vs prior year, compressing segment margins vs 2024 comps.

Transcript

Speaker 6

Good day and welcome to the Peabody Energy Q3 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in the listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Vic Svec of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thanks, operator, and good morning all. Thank you for joining today to take part in Peabody Energy's third quarter call. Remarks today will be from Peabody Energy's President and CEO Jim Grech, CFO Mark Spurbeck, and Chief Commercial Officer Malcolm Roberts. Following the remarks, of course, we'll open up the call to questions. We do have some forward-looking statements today, and you'll find our full statement on forward-looking information in the release. We do encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced there as well as our public filings with the SEC, and I'll now turn the call over to Jim.

Speaker 5

Thanks Vic and good morning everyone. I'm pleased to report that Peabody continues to perform quite well with great safety results, good volumes, strong cost containment, a pristine balance sheet, and an outlook that points to more of the same. Our third quarter was punctuated by strong thermal coal shipments and historically low met coal costs. Also, I'm delighted to say that the longwall production at our flagship Centurion mine begins next quarter. We expect shipments of Centurion's premium hard coking coal to expand sevenfold in 2026 to 3.5 million tons and even more beyond that time. Development and hiring remains on track, and longwall equipment is beginning to be installed underground ahead of the February start.

Over the 25 plus year mine life, we expect Centurion to be our lowest cost metallurgical coal mine, and by itself the mine should boost our average met coal portfolio realizations as a % of benchmark from the 70% mark this year to roughly 80% in 2026. All of this occurs against market pricing that is toward the lower end of the pricing cycle. To steal a bit of Malcolm's thunder.

Speaker 1

I'll show.

Speaker 5

Mark will tell you that we have designed Peabody to produce positive EBITDA even during the toughest times, while generating substantial cash flows during mid to higher parts of the cycle. We're now at an interesting inflection point on how investors should be looking at our company. Our capital investment in Centurion is tapering down even as a long in both directions. That bodes well for shareholder returns using our established policies. Let's now turn to what we're seeing in U.S. fundamentals. One of the world's largest hedge funds recently commented to us that Peabody was at the intersection of some of the most significant themes going on in America, and I couldn't agree more. Consider a few of these. The AI data center theme continues to play out, with new investments being announced weekly. When coupled with plans for increased U.S.

manufacturing, this means power generation will struggle to keep up with demand for the foreseeable future. U.S. coal plants' reliability and affordability also continues to be emphasized. During the coldest days of last winter, for instance, fossil fuels provided more than 90% of the additional U.S. generation needed, versus just 4% for wind and solar. The often quoted national average of 16% of electricity from coal also doesn't do justice to the workload, reliability, and economics that coal power generation provides in certain states. For example, our home state of Missouri gets approximately 60% of its electricity from coal, while California has virtually no coal-fueled power. As a result, Missouri's average cost of electricity was just $0.11 per kilowatt hour. Last year, the California power averaged $0.27, nearly two and a half times that of Missouri.

The third quarter continued to see 202c executive orders to keep coal-fueled generating plants open and utilities announcing additional extensions. The count of life extensions for U.S. coal-fueled generation now totals 58 units and 46 gigawatts of generation, more than a quarter of the total installed base. This comes as the Trump administration continues to implement common sense policies. In the third quarter alone, we saw federal funding and emergency orders to extend the lives of coal plants, a 5.5% reduction in the federal coal royalty rate, an upcoming 2.5% production tax credit from the one big beautiful bill. We also saw a growing national focus on securing rare earth elements and critical minerals. We have long said that our leading U.S. thermal coal platform, and particularly our Powder River Basin position, represents a free option for investors. To extend that analogy, today, that option is nicely in the money.

With that brief overview, Malcolm, I'll now turn the call over to you to give more color on the markets.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 5

I'll begin with a look at the.

Speaker 4

Seaborne markets where the notable change in metallurgical coal this past quarter has been. How unchanged those markets have been. Consider this: the normally volatile premium hard coking coal benchmark price averaged $184 per metric tonne in the third quarter, which is the same as the price it averaged in Q2 and just a dollar per tonne lower than Q1. The global steel story has continued to center around China's anti-involution policies, which appear to be firming as the country looks to trim unprofitable supply. China's crude steel production is down roughly 3% year to date. Unfortunately, domestic steel demand has also been sluggish, so Chinese steel exports are still running at elevated levels. Lower crude steel production in traditional markets outside China has tempered the benefit of new blast furnaces in India and the incremental coal imports they represent.

I'll remind listeners that while China imports less than 20% of its metallurgical coal demand, India imports 90% of its steelmaking coal needs. We note that in recent days China has been aggressively pursuing imports of premium seaborne coking coals as domestic pricing in China has risen to a level that makes imports attractive. Seaborne met coal supply continued to see challenges this past quarter with some producers struggling at these sustained low pricing levels. We estimate that 45 million tonnes of seaborne met coal production, or 15% of seaborne supply, is earning an unsustainable level of revenue at current price levels. Benchmark prices today stand at approximately $195 per metric tonne. Next year's forward curve is in the $215 range. This coming quarter we'll be looking at the pace of Chinese policies and the strength of the restocking cycle in both India and China.

Seaborne thermal coal saw some support in the third quarter with the average benchmark price up 8%. Positives for demand include developed Asian markets in Korea and Taiwan favoring Australian imports over Russian coals, while Chinese coastal plant stockpiles stand at a 12-month low. Anti-involution policies are touching all of China's coal mines where there are 276-day work limits. Safety checks and production quotas invariably have an impact, and most enforcement has been observed but has been sporadic. On the supply side, seaborne thermal production is adjusting with large exporting nations such as Indonesia and Colombia curtailing unprofitable production. An improving market balance is reflected in the forward seaborne thermal benchmark price contango, with next year's Newcastle pricing up 9% above current levels during Q4. We anticipate winter restocking post shoulder season, and we'll see if the recent rebound in Chinese imports accelerates within U.S. markets.

I'll reinforce Jim's initial remarks. The favorable trends we've discussed all year are well intact through nine months. Total U.S. electricity demand is up 2% over the prior year. That relates mostly to the early stage build out of data centers and increased load growth from AI. Electricity demand growth only looks to expand, with ICF International, for instance, forecasting 25% growth within five years and 78% growth within 25 years. Peabody Energy has been saying that increasing utilization of existing coal plants represents the best form of incremental power in the U.S., and that's exactly what has occurred. Year to date, percentage growth in U.S. coal generation has been five times greater than overall electricity generation growth. The 11% increase in U.S. coal burn this year has been driven by good fundamentals, including natural gas prices that have averaged $3.45 per MMBtu, leading to gas generation being down 3%.

Those trends may well be repeated next year with a forward curve for natural gas averaging an even stronger $4. Our view is spare generation capacity could provide substantial growth in coal consumption while filling the electron gap. First, consider the landscape in the U.S. Renewables continue to be built out but don't solve the massive 24/7 reliability needs. When the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine, renewable saturation is a real concept. Gas plants are being built. However, new turbines ordered today may be five years away from being delivered, given backlogs. Additional nuclear generation is fine, but at least a decade or 15 years away from reality. For those keeping score on coal plant longevity, add three coal-fueled plants in North Carolina to the list of those being extended. These plants aren't just being kept in service, they are generating more electrons. The U.S.

coal fleet ran at just 42% of capacity in 2024. The fleet can never run at 100% of course, but optimal levels could look a lot like 2008 when coal plants ran at 72% utilization. Closing that gap could add 10% of generation to the U.S. electrical grid without needing to add any new plants. That increase could translate to some 250 million tonnes or more per year of additional thermal coal demand. Now that isn't a projection, of course, it's just simple math. However, it does provide a compelling case for coal's rebound in the U.S., and one that has already begun to play out this year. From a supply standpoint, providing those additional tonnes to meet growing U.S. generation can come somewhat from running mines harder and utilizing latent capacity. You've seen that from Peabody with U.S. shipments up 7% year to date with higher coal burn.

We also estimate that U.S. generated inventories are down 14% from this time last year. Market fundamentals continue to tighten. We've begun to see price indices increase while natural gas prices have risen across the curve. Coal continues to present attractive economics. That's a brief review of the coal market dynamics. I'll now pass the call over to Mark.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Malcolm, and good morning all.

Speaker 5

I'll start with a quick overview.

Speaker 1

We delivered another strong financial quarter with adjusted EBITDA increasing from Q2 driven by higher Powder River Basin shipments, better than expected seaborne thermal coal volume, and the lowest metallurgical coal cost we've seen in several years despite burdensome Queensland royalties. At September 30, our cash position was $603 million and total liquidity exceeded $950 million, ensuring we have the financial flexibility to manage short-term market volatility while fully capturing upside for more favorable prices. Together with the increased operating leverage from Centurion, we expect to be positioned to generate free cash flow and deliver outsized returns to shareholders. Let's take a closer look at our.

Speaker 5

Financial performance for the third quarter.

Speaker 1

We recorded a GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $70.1 million or $0.58 per diluted share, which included $54 million of acquisition termination costs primarily related to financing arrangements, transition services, and legal fees. We reported adjusted EBITDA of just under $100 million, generated $122 million in operating cash flow, and continued completing development at Centurion South, now just three months away from starting the longwall. Turning to operating segment performance, seaborne thermal recorded $41 million of adjusted EBITDA and 17% margins. Sales volumes exceeded company expectations with an increase of 500,000 tons quarter over quarter as the company recovered the delayed tons from long Newcastle shipping queues in Q2 and then some. The segment expanded margins by 10% from Q2, demonstrating the continued strength of our low-cost Australian thermal platform. The seaborne metallurgical segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $28 million.

Revenue per ton rose 6% quarter over quarter due to a higher product quality mix enhanced by 210,000 tons of Centurion premium. Hard coking coal costs were significantly better than company targets with cost improvements achieved at all five met coal operations. The U.S. thermal mines generated $59 million of adjusted EBITDA on the improved domestic demand that Jim and Malcolm discussed. On a year-to-date basis, our U.S. thermal platform has delivered nearly $150 million of cash flow and EBITDA has outpaced capital by an almost 5 to 1 margin. The Powder River Basin delivered $52 million of adjusted EBITDA, a 20% increase from the prior quarter. Margin per ton improved 6% driven by higher volume and reported costs at the low end of guidance.

The new lower federal royalty rate improved cost by $0.70 per ton but reduced revenue by $0.30 as certain contracts require law changes to be passed on to customers. To get a better sense of the momentum building in the PRB, shipments are up 10% year over year, yet margins have improved by 39% resulting in a 53% increase in reported EBITDA compared to the prior year. The other U.S. thermal segment contributed a modest $7 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. Sales volumes met company expectations despite an unplanned five-week dragline outage at Bear Run, which led to a production loss of 400,000 tons that was mostly offset by a drawdown of inventory, resulting in a net sales reduction of 100,000 tons. Related repair costs totaled $2.5 million, temporarily increasing costs above expected levels.

The dragline resumed operating on September 18th, and we don't anticipate any impact on fourth quarter production. Also, the 20 Mile team completed the longwall move to the 11 East panel in October, and we expect to return to normal production rates going forward, though we anticipate less than ratable sales in the fourth quarter as we rebuild inventory. Lastly, we recorded a one-time $5.5 million charge in the Corporate and Other segment for the settlement of claims related to a dispute over the calculation of overtime at our U.S. operations. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, seaborne thermal volumes are expected to be 3.2 million tons, including 2.1 million tons of export coal, 200,000 of which are priced on average at $100 per ton. 800,000 tons of Newcastle product and 1.1 million tons of high ash coal remain unpriced.

Seaborne thermal costs are expected to be between $45 and $48 per ton, an improvement over prior implied fourth quarter guidance. As a reminder, Wambo Underground came offline in the third quarter. Going forward, we anticipate a seaborne thermal quality mix of 40% Newcastle and 60% higher ash product. Seaborne met volumes are targeted at 2.4 million tons, up 300,000 from the third quarter, while costs are expected to be $112.50 per ton, better than prior full year guidance. In the PRB, we expect shipments of 23 million tons at a cost of $11.25 per ton, both better than prior implied fourth quarter guidance. Other U.S. thermal coal shipments are expected to be just slightly below third quarter at 3.6 million tons as we rebuild inventory and production ramps up at 20 Mile following the longwall move.

Costs are anticipated to be approximately $45 per ton, a $5 improvement from prior quarter. Wambo Underground closing is planned. We anticipate certain non-reclamation costs to be reported in the Corporate and Other segment. These costs are very much front-end loaded and estimated at $9 million in the fourth quarter. After third quarter's results, we are making favorable changes to full year guidance for the second quarter in a row. Seaborne thermal volumes are anticipated to be 350,000 tons higher at 15.1 to 15.4 million. Seaborne met cost targets have improved by an additional $2.50 to $115 per ton at the midpoint. PRB volumes are anticipated to be 3 million tons higher at 84 to 86 million, while costs are being lowered another $0.25 to $11.25 to $11.75 per ton. With the recent challenges at Bear Run and 20 Mile behind us, we are adjusting other U.S.

thermal coal volume to be at or slightly below the previous low end of guidance at 13.2 to 13.4 million tons, and full year cost $2 per ton higher at $45 to $49 per ton. In summary, we delivered another straightforward quarter, underscoring the continued discipline of our operations team. With the Centurion South investment nearly complete, we're well positioned to significantly expand margins. We expect another consistent quarter to end the year. We remain confident in our ability to bring Centurion online early next year and deliver stronger cash flow. Our robust balance sheet provides flexibility to navigate near term seaborne weakness, capitalize on accelerating cash flows as conditions improve, and create significant value for our shareholders.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 1

I'll now turn the call back over to Jim.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Mark. I'd like to briefly review our core priorities which play into Peabody Energy's compelling investment themes. First, we are highly focused on safe, productive, and environmentally sound operations. That's our key to everything else we do. Second, we are on our final approach to Centurion's longwall startup. Centurion joins our multiproduct met coal platform that will see a volume increase of approximately 25% in 2026. Third, we believe our low-cost thermal coal platform will continue to deliver EBITDA well ahead of its modest CapEx needs. Fourth, our leading U.S. thermal position will continue to benefit from the rising domestic generation trends. Fifth, we will maintain a fortress balance sheet with a focus on maximizing shareholder returns. Our sixth priority is also our newest, which is to leverage our number one U.S. coal production position to assess our potential to meet growing U.S.

needs for rare earth elements and critical minerals. We told you last quarter that we saw rare earth and critical mineral potential in preliminary studies performed in conjunction with the University of Wyoming and that a new sampling and laboratory analysis program was beginning in the third quarter. Preliminary data from our targeted zones indicate that we have similar or better concentration than others have reported in the PRB. We acknowledge that we are in the early stages in our assessment of our potential to produce critical minerals and rare earth elements with sustainable processes that could potentially generate attractive returns for our shareholders. In continuation of this assessment, we have multiple activities currently underway. We have accelerated our drilling program as we continue our assessment of both types and concentrations of rare earth elements.

In conjunction with several third-party labs, we are in discussion with multiple departments in the Trump administration regarding rare earth and critical mineral priorities and potential for funding. We also have been in early discussions with a number of potential technology partners regarding processing platforms. I would describe our actions as aggressive in pacing yet disciplined in approach. By our year-end reporting early next year, we will look to provide a greater sense of mineral types and concentrations while also discussing next stage plans. With that, operator, we can now open up the line to questions.

Speaker 6

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. First question comes from the line of Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thank you, operator.

Speaker 5

Good morning, everyone.

My first question, obviously some key tailwinds for domestic thermal this year, and Malcolm, you mentioned optimal coal-fired utilizations could be in the 70s. That would imply 250 million tons of demand. In this blue sky scenario, how should we think about Peabody Energy's response? I mean, what's the maximum level of output we could see Peabody producing in the PRB? How much capital would be required, and how long would it take to ultimately achieve this level? Thank you.

Look, Nico, I'll talk about the market.

Speaker 4

Capital, I'll hand over to Jim or Mark, depending on who wants to take it.

Speaker 1

When you.

Speaker 4

When we look at this market, there was quite a bit of latent capacity.

Speaker 5

Available over the last couple of years.

Speaker 4

That we're seeing fill up very quickly.

Speaker 5

It's a great question.

Speaker 4

You ask because the expansion is going to come from really two things. One is going to be customer commitments, and adding on capacity is not something you do for one year. It is going to need customer commitments, and then we'll be looking for the price signals. We'll see what the market does in terms of price signals to bring those additional tonnes on. I think that's the best way to look at it. I would say, you know, we see ourselves approaching absorbing the latent capacity that we've had over the last couple of years. Mark or Jim?

Speaker 1

Yeah, good morning, Nick. I think Malcolm's got it exactly right. I mean, you look at what we've done, particularly in the PRB, increasing our volumes by 10 million tons from the beginning of the year. That latent capacity really being taken up in the market, we've seen our peers do something similar. You know there's going to be additional demand if any of these projections for load growth continue to bear out like we've seen so far this year. The amount of capital it's going to take remains to be seen, but certainly we're going to have to see the economics and prices in the coal to justify the additional investment. I think there's two things, Nick, when I think about additional production. One is the capital, and that's mainly the equipment fleet, but two, also the labor and getting a workforce assembled to produce those additional tons.

Malcolm had it right. Latent capacity being taken up and additional volumes are going to come at higher costs.

Guys, this is really helpful. Just as a follow-up here, you mentioned price signals, customer commitments. What would you need to see from a duration perspective? Would you need to see 20, 30 type commitments at this point to deploy incremental capital, and just any volume figure? Could we see 10 million more tons, 20 million more tons? Appreciate any clarity there.

With that 10 million ton increase this year, that's pretty much running at our full out run rate. There's no additional latent capacity to speak of, particularly at our NAR mine, which is the largest mine with regard to the type of commitments we're seeing. Those types of commitments, we're seeing multi-year commitments from customers, already a lot of inquiries around that. It would look the same as any other investment. We'd have to see a return. How much can we do on an as-needed basis on a leasing basis versus outright investment in purchase? To be determined, Nick, on that. We fully expect with that latent capacity being taken up this year to see that upward pricing pressure. We're seeing it already. We expect that to continue next year, particularly if that forward curve on gas above $4 is right next year.

Got it.

Speaker 6

No.

Thanks for that. Switching gears, obviously you have Centurion coming on here shortly and that will reweight you more towards the benchmark. With the termination of the Anglo American deal, I just wanted to ask how you're thinking about M&A opportunities in Met going forward. I mean, do you still have a desire to further reweight your Met portfolio to higher quality grades beyond, you know, what we'll see at Centurion?

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Speaker 5

Hi, Nick. Good morning. Jim here. Our focus has been on growing the seaborne metallurgical coal. With the position we're in right now, our entire focus is on getting that Centurion mine up and running and getting it to the maximum capacity possible. We're in good shape to do that. One of the things that we are addressing, which is going well, as Mark said, is labor. We've got 260 of the 400 employees hired that we need to get to full capacity. We anticipate being able to get up to full labor complement as a longwall is coming online. Our focus really is on getting the Centurion mine up and running, maximizing the output from that mine, and then really taking advantage of the U.S. tailwinds that we have. Following up on your questions of getting as many tons out as economically as we can from our U.S.

platform, that's really where our focus is. If the market unfolds as we think it has the potential next year to do so, with the upward pricing pressures domestically, internationally, our focus on our organic assets, we see some very robust cash flow potential. Of course, that can work back to share buybacks and so on for our shareholders. That's really where the focus of our company is going forward.

Speaker 6

Got it. That's it.

That's clear, Jim. Guys, I really appreciate the update and continue.

Best of luck.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Nick.

Speaker 6

The next question comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator.

Speaker 5

Good morning, everyone.

Just back to the PRB for one second. You said the operation. I think Mark is basically running at the max at this point. If we look out to the next two years, 2026, 2027, are you guys seeing enough demand to continue running at that max and roughly how contracted are you and what price at that level?

Speaker 4

Malcolm, here, look, I think there were two questions. Are we confident about running at max capacity? For the next couple of years, the answer is definitely yes in the PRB. I think your second question was what we think price levels will be. I can't comment on that, except we.

Speaker 5

We are encouraged by where.

Speaker 4

We've seen index price movements and where we're doing business today.

Malcolm, clarify.

Speaker 6

Go ahead.

Speaker 5

Sorry, Nate. Jim here, if there's something to take from what Malcolm's been saying and Mark as well, it's that we're seeing an environment in the market where it's certainty and demand increase, and the ability for U.S. producers to quickly add production is going to be the challenge. That should result in upward pricing pressure. There's going to be some value to the first movers on the customer side that step out and enter into these multi-year agreements and secure the reliability that they're looking for. We've been seeing some of that. This inflection point has a real potential to hit the market with demand increasing quickly, the coal plant utilization wanting to increase to go along with it, and how quickly can the production side respond?

For that production side to respond, we need to see more long-term agreements put in place where we can justify the investment, as Mark was talking about. It's going to make for, I think, a pretty volatile pricing environment going forward if these demand projections hold, as we're seeing many consultants forecasting.

Speaker 6

Got it.

Appreciate those comments, guys. Shifting to the Met segment, clearly a nice quarter over quarter improvement in cost per ton there. As we look ahead to 2026 and start a Centurion longwall, should we expect that to drive another incremental improvement? I think, I believe you said that was going to be the lowest cost operation in the segment. How should we think about how Met segment costs could compare to 2025? Guidance would just be helpful to get some puts and takes there. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Nate, Mark, we're not sharing guidance for 2026 yet. We'll do that obviously on our next call. Over that 25-year life, Centurion will be the lowest cost producer in the portfolio. You know, we talked about the south having some shorter panels, lower production run rate of 3.5 million tons or so next year versus life of mine of 4.7. There'll be some give or takes there. I wouldn't look for any step change next year.

Okay, Mark, that's fair. Maybe just one final, you.

Speaker 5

This would be great to get.

Thoughts on potential scenarios for how you guys see the arbitration process with Anglo American playing out. Specifically, are there any further adjustments to your results, like the $54 million charge we saw this quarter, expected going forward?

Yeah, Nate, I'll talk about the process and then I'll let Mark comment after that about any other adjustments. Our analysis of the Mac, which was a prospective analysis, we feel has been confirmed by events and the passage of time and of course the enormous loss of value that we see. We've hired two prominent law firms, Jones Day and Quinn Emanuel, and they've done their analysis and they join us in their high level of confidence in our position. An arbitration process probably takes years, all right, and we're on the front end of that arbitration process. I can't predict you how long it's going to take, but it will take a while to get to any resolution. As each day passes by, we get more and more firm in our conviction of our position.

Now, as far as any other expenses with that are looking forward, I'll give that to Mark.

Speaker 1

Yeah. On the $54 million charge for the quarter, that really brings the year-to-date charge to $75 million. That's a lot of cost that would have been capitalized had we been able to complete the transaction, primarily related to the bridge financing arrangements. That was significantly, most of it, about $45 million of the charge year-to-date. There's also about $15 million of professional fees and transition services. That is really a catch up to where we're at, and that's obviously stopped now. Nate, I wouldn't expect anything significant like you've seen. There will obviously be some legal defense costs going forward. We estimate that at about $5 million a year.

Speaker 4

Year.

Okay, very helpful, gentlemen. I'll leave it there.

Speaker 5

I appreciate the time.

Best of luck in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Nate.

Speaker 6

The next question comes from the line of George Eddy with UBS. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good day, Jim, Mark, Malcolm and Vic. Hope you're all well. Can I ask more about rare earths and the PRB? In terms of details we'll get by year end, should we expect to see grades, volumes, costs and potential timeline to get to market, all of those by year end.

Speaker 5

You know, George, what we said is we're in the very early stages of our assessment, which is ongoing, and we're getting some preliminary data in, it's analyzed. We're getting more data in and more analysis is needed. We've accelerated our drilling program with that as well. What we're planning to give at the end of the first, at our year end results, which we'll do in February, is a preliminary analysis of indicative element types and concentrations. That's what we're saying we'll be giving at that point in time.

Okay. You guys called out earlier similar or better grades in peer. Is it reasonable for me to assume that it's a similar mix like other peers, so sort of heavy in scandium and gallium where the value is? Lastly, on that, can you help maybe elaborate on discussions on partnerships with the current administration? I guess you're a leading player in both coal and critical minerals, two clear top priorities. How can you help us understand a bit better what could happen and how they're approaching this in your discussions?

Hey, George. There's a few things there. First off, I'm not going to get speculative on the types and concentrations. We'll have that in just a few months here. We just want to make sure that we're very thorough in how we approach this. We take a disciplined, systematic approach to how we're going to do this. We'll get all the sampling done, we'll get all the data in, and when we give our year end reports in February, we'll give the information we have at that time. We're not going to get too speculative or speculative at all right now on the concentrations and types. We have been very active with the Trump administration, meeting with various departments in Washington and even have some more upcoming here in the near future. We're working closely with them.

As you said, with the volumes that we do in coal and with the rare earth elements, we do have a unique position and we also have a unique position that we do that both in the U.S. and Australia. With the Trump administration and the recent agreement with Australia, we are looking at the potential for rare earth elements at our coal mines in Australia as well. We're very unique in that position. One other thing I'd like to point out that we're very unique in when it comes to the potential for rare earth elements is the massive scale which we have in the PRB, which cannot be duplicated. We have the workforce, we have the equipment, we have the logistics facility, and we're currently mining 80 million tons of coal a year and moving over 400 million cubic yards of earth a year.

No one else can duplicate that. I would just say we aren't trying to get shovel ready here. If there is an opportunity, we are already shoveling in the PRB. It is a unique position we have. As we get data and we can solidify our analysis, we'll certainly bring that out.

Okay, yeah, no, that's clear. Sorry, one last one maybe for Mark, but on the Anglo American termination, I might have missed it slightly earlier, but there was a $29 million deposit return. Is there another $46 million to come still?

Is that right?

The 75 total. Can you just maybe remind me what the $54 million that has gone through in Q3 is and if there's anything more in terms of costs beyond that legal $5 million a year you flagged before.

Speaker 1

Thanks. You're right, George. On the remaining deposit, we expect that to be returned to us. We've asked for that in short order. It's not clear why only a portion of the deposit was returned to us. On the $54 million of costs, about $35 million of that was related to the financing, the bridge financing, which has now been terminated, as we announced previously. The additional amount was almost entirely related to professional fees and transition services, which have completely been halted at this point. They won't be going forward. The only thing we'll have going forward is the arbitration, legal fees, and we anticipate that to be about $5 million per year.

James?

Speaker 5

Thanks, George.

Speaker 6

The next question comes from Matthew Key with Texas Capital. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. I have a macro one on the rare earth side. We saw this morning that the U.S. and China reached a tentative deal to pause some of those export controls on rare earth elements for about a year. What impact, if any, do you think this will impact government support for domestic rare earth projects?

Speaker 5

You know, Matthew, I'm not really sure. I have a specific answer that I will comment on is that I know that there is a strong desire to have a domestic supply of rare earth elements here by our government. There could be an international supply, maybe things with China. I'm not sure how that'll play out. I do know there is a very strong desire for conventional or unconventional supply right here native in the United States. I would expect that would continue. I don't want to speak for the administration on that. That's just my expectation. Got it, that's helpful.

Just a follow up on M&A and the seaborne metallurgical coal side, given that you are in arbitration with Anglo American and that could take some time, would you not really be considering any additional M&A in seaborne metallurgical coal until that arbitration process with Anglo American is completed?

First off, I'll just say that again, our belief that the arbitration process will be successful for us isn't going to be a hindrance in anything. You know, it's not going to hold us back from doing anything in the future. We have 100% confidence in that process and we are not going to stop anything strategic with our company because of that process. I'd just like to put that out there right now and clear that up. As you're asking about M&A again, I'll just say our focus right now is on our organic assets, getting Centurion online, getting the full value of that for our shareholders and leaning into this market upside that we see happening both U.S. and internationally next year and making sure our platform is capitalized.

We have the maintenance in order, we have the staffing in order to take full advantage of the upside we see coming in the market and to generate some very robust cash flows. That's where our focus is right now.

Got it. Appreciate your time and best of luck moving forward.

Thanks, Matthew. Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for the time today. I'll thank our Peabody team, which amid everything else turned in safety performance that remains near our all-time record performance of 2024. We look forward to keeping all of you up to date on our progress as we finish up in 2025. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect. Thank you.