Blackstone Inc. (BX) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Blackstone delivered a strong Q3 with Distributable Earnings of $1.9B ($1.52/share) and declared a $1.29 dividend; inflows were $54.2B, lifting AUM to a record $1.242T .
• Fee-related earnings rose 26% YoY to $1.5B, supported by 22% growth in total fee revenues to $2.5B; management noted an exceptional quarter across platforms .
• Street comparison: Primary EPS beat consensus (+23%) at $1.52 vs $1.23; revenue came in below S&P consensus, while GAAP revenue was $3.09B reported (see Estimates Context; bolded beats/misses) *.
• Catalysts: accelerating realizations into 2026, robust private wealth fundraising ($11B in Q3), and strategic IG private credit partnerships (e.g., $7B Sempra LNG venture), alongside strengthening real estate transaction activity .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well
  • Fee engine: Management fees hit a record $2.0B; total fee revenues rose 22% YoY to $2.5B, driving FRE to $1.5B (+26% YoY) .
  • Private wealth momentum: “We raised over $11 billion in the channel in the third quarter, more than doubled year over year…” (Jon Gray) .
  • IG private credit scaling: Insurance AUM grew 19% YoY to $264B; generated ~170 bps incremental spread vs liquid credit year-to-date (farm‑to‑table model) .
  • Data centers tailwind: “In our portfolio…we saw a doubling in our leasing pipeline globally versus Q2” (Jon Gray) .
  • Realizations building: Net accrued performance revenues stood at $6.5B ($5.30/share); performance revenue-eligible AUM reached a record $611B .
• What Went Wrong
  • Revenue down sequentially: GAAP total revenues fell to $3.09B in Q3 from $3.71B in Q2 .
  • Real estate still mixed: Opportunistic funds declined (0.6)% in Q3; FX impacted opportunistic returns despite positive underlying appreciation .
  • Margin seasonality ahead: Management guided to sequentially lower FRE margin in Q4 due to seasonal expenses; transaction/advisory fees expected at a lower baseline .
  • Private credit headlines: Management addressed market concerns, emphasizing recent defaults were bank‑syndicated and idiosyncratic (fraud-related), not private credit .
  • Slight credit loss uptick: Direct lending realized losses were 12 bps over the last 12 months (still minimal historically) .

Financial Results

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (Segment Revenues, Q3 2025):

Key KPIs (Q3 2025):

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Distributable earnings increased nearly 50% year on year to $1.9 billion… inflows reached $54 billion… AUM to a new industry record of $1.24 trillion.” — Stephen Schwarzman .
• “In private wealth, our platform has grown to nearly $290 billion… we raised over $11 billion in the channel in the third quarter…” — Jon Gray .
• “In the third quarter, we executed another major partnership, a $7 billion investment… with Sempra to support construction of a LNG project on the Gulf Coast.” — Jon Gray .
• “FRE margin was 58.6% YTD… Distributable Earnings increased 48% YoY to $1.9B… We generated $5.05B in net realizations in the quarter.” — Michael Chae .

Q&A Highlights

• Private credit headlines: Management clarified recent defaults were bank‑syndicated and fraud‑related; private credit model remains robust with minimal realized losses .
• DC channel plans: Team in place; expect partnerships (Vanguard/Wellington); rulemaking timeline guides rollout .
• Japan brand initiatives: Targeted advertising; strong savings-to-investing pivot supports private wealth growth; no “Blackstone stadium” planned .
• BCRED dividend/flows: Products are ~97% floating rate; lower short rates reduce yields; expecting strong BCRED flows in November; no elevated redemptions .
• Real estate inflection: Capital markets recovery and sharp decline in new construction support a turning point; recent transactions signal improved liquidity .

Estimates Context

Results vs Wall Street (S&P Global):

• Q3: Primary EPS beat (+23%); revenue below consensus; company-reported GAAP revenue was $3.089B . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• EPS beat and robust FRE growth support near‑term sentiment; bolded EPS beat vs consensus is a likely catalyst for shares (short‑term) *.
• Realization cycle improving with $6.5B accrued performance revenue and expanding eligible AUM ($611B); watch 2026 acceleration commentary (medium‑term) .
• IG private credit continues to scale across insurance and corporates (e.g., Sempra), delivering structural spread premia; supports multi‑year earnings durability .
• Private wealth platform reaccelerating ($11B Q3) with BXPE/BCRED/BXINFRA momentum; distribution broadening (Japan, RIAs) .
• Real estate turning point: recovering transaction activity and shrinking supply position BX to benefit as values improve; monitor BREIT performance and flows .
• Margin profile stable for FY with Q4 seasonality; model for lower transaction/advisory baseline in Q4 (near‑term) .
• Dividend continuity ($1.29 in Q3) and strong cash/net investments ($20.9B) provide capital return and balance sheet flexibility .

Also relevant Q3 2025 press releases:

• Blackstone announced agreement to acquire Enverus (strategic energy & data platform) (Aug 6, 2025), reinforcing energy infrastructure and data capabilities .