BOYD GAMING (BYD)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Boyd Gaming Crushes Q4 Estimates as Share Buybacks Boost EPS 16% Above Street

February 5, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Boyd Gaming (BYD) delivered another earnings beat in Q4 2025, reporting Adjusted EPS of $2.21 that topped Wall Street's $1.91 estimate by 16%. Revenue of $1.062 billion exceeded consensus by 4.1%, marking the regional casino operator's fifth consecutive quarterly beat.

However, the stock fell 1.3% on the day as investors digested softer EBITDAR margins and the impact of severe winter weather on December operations. The results cap a transformative year that saw Boyd monetize its FanDuel stake for $1.4 billion after-tax and return over $800 million to shareholders.

Did Boyd Gaming Beat Earnings?

Yes — and convincingly. Boyd extended its beat streak to 5 consecutive quarters:

Revenue and EPS data from company filings . Consensus estimates from S&P Global.

The EPS beat was amplified by aggressive share buybacks — Boyd's diluted share count fell to 78.6 million from 89.0 million a year ago, a 12% reduction that boosted per-share metrics even as absolute net income declined.

5-Quarter Beat Streak

Historical beat data from earnings releases.

What Drove the Quarter?

Segment Performance

Boyd's diversified portfolio delivered mixed results across its five operating segments:

Segment data from 8-K exhibit.

Key segment takeaways:

• Midwest & South (50% of revenue): Continued benefiting from strong core customer play despite severe December winter weather that impacted year-over-year comparisons
• Las Vegas Locals: Gaming revenues grew on strong core customer trends, offset by softness in destination/tourist business
• Online: Results reflected growth in online casino gaming but were impacted by revenue-sharing changes following the FanDuel transaction
• Managed & Other: Sky River Casino management fees continued strong growth trajectory

FY 2025: A Record Year

For the full year, Boyd achieved record revenues of $4.1 billion, up from $3.9 billion in 2024. However, the headline number is the $1.8 billion in net income ($22.56 per share), driven primarily by the $1.4 billion after-tax gain from selling the company's FanDuel equity stake.

Full-year data from company filings.

How Did the Stock React?

Despite the solid beat, BYD shares fell 1.3% on earnings day:

The muted reaction likely reflects:

1. EBITDAR margin compression: Q4 Adjusted EBITDAR of $336.6M was down 11% YoY vs. $379.3M
2. Weather headwinds: Severe December weather impacted Midwest & South operations
3. High expectations: With 5 consecutive beats averaging 10%+, the bar was already elevated
4. Las Vegas softness: Continued weakness in destination/tourist traffic

What Did Management Guide?

Boyd provided specific segment-level guidance for 2026 alongside an optimistic outlook from CEO Keith Smith:

"Looking ahead, we are well positioned to build upon the strong foundation we have created as we continue to invest in our nationwide portfolio. With positive customer trends across the country and strong results from our capital investments, we are confident in our ability to build on our success."

2026 Segment Guidance

Capital Expenditure Plan

CFO Josh Hirsberg outlined a detailed 2026 CapEx budget of $650-700 million:

Management noted this will be the final year of incremental hotel capital spend.

Balance Sheet Targets

Boyd expects traditional leverage of ~2.5x by year-end 2026 (vs. 1.7x currently), reflecting:

• $340M tax payment in Q1 related to FanDuel transaction
• Continued capital investments
• Ongoing share repurchase program (~$150M/quarter)

Key forward catalysts:

• Cadence Crossing Casino: Opening late March 2026 in rapidly growing Las Vegas suburb (1,200+ homes sold in 2025)
• Suncoast Modernization: Completion expected end of Q3 2026, minimal construction disruption to date
• Sky River Expansion: 400 slots + 1,600-space parking garage opening late February 2026
• Virginia Resort: $750M project on track for late 2027 opening
• Share Repurchases: Continuing at ~$150M/quarter pace

Analyst Estimates for 2026:

Consensus estimates from S&P Global.

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Comparing Q4 2025 to Q3 2025 reveals several notable shifts:

Q3 vs Q4 comparison from company filings.

Balance sheet transformation: The FanDuel proceeds enabled significant deleveraging, with total debt falling from $4.3B in Q2 to $2.1B by year-end — a remarkable $2.2B reduction.

Capital Allocation Highlights

Boyd continued returning capital aggressively in Q4:

• Share Repurchases: $185 million in Q4, $800M+ for full year 2025
• Dividends: $0.18 per share quarterly dividend paid January 15, 2026
• Remaining Authorization: $362 million as of December 31, 2025
• Total Debt: $2.1 billion with $353.4 million cash on hand

The FanDuel transaction generated nearly $1.8 billion in gross proceeds, which Boyd deployed to:

1. Reduce debt substantially
2. Fund the Virginia resort construction
3. Accelerate share repurchases

What Did Analysts Ask About?

The Q&A session covered several key investor concerns:

Destination Business Weakness

Analysts pressed on the bifurcation between locals and destination play. CEO Keith Smith explained:

"The real weakness was in true destination play—people coming in from out of town, staying with us. That's what resulted in a $6 million decline in hotel revenue, primarily at the Orleans."

CFO Josh Hirsberg added that this weakness extends beyond Las Vegas to IP Biloxi, their largest hotel outside Nevada at 1,000 rooms.

M&A Appetite

When asked about acquisition potential given the fortress balance sheet, Smith emphasized discipline:

"We remain interested. We have the same very disciplined approach—the right asset in the right market at the right price. A lot goes through the top of the funnel, but nothing's come out the bottom in recent years."

Notably, management signaled openness to OpCo structures (operating company without real estate ownership), acknowledging industry evolution:

"We prefer to buy HoldCo. We prefer HoldCo assets. But we are not letting structure deter us from acquiring the right asset."

Tax Legislation Benefits

Management expressed optimism about consumer spending benefits from the "one big beautiful bill" tax legislation:

• ~40% of Boyd's customer base is 65+ (company-wide), benefiting from standard deduction increases
• Southern Nevada expected to see "outsized benefit" due to tipped workers and retiree demographics
• No concern about SNAP changes impacting their customer cohorts

iGaming Support

In a notable disclosure, Boyd expressed support for iGaming expansion in Virginia despite building a $750M land-based resort there:

"We've always been supportive of iGaming or iCasino. We think it is complementary to the business... It broadens the overall appeal of our product. It broadens the customer base."

January Weather Impact

CFO Hirsberg quantified early Q1 weather headwinds:

"At this point, it's very similar to last year... approximately $5 million impact so far this year."

This mirrors the Q1 2025 weather impact, creating déjà vu for Midwest & South operations.

Risks and Concerns

Several headwinds warrant monitoring:

1. EBITDAR Margin Pressure: Full-year Adjusted EBITDAR was flat YoY at $1.35B despite record revenue, suggesting margin compression

2. Las Vegas Softness: Both the Locals and Downtown segments showed YoY revenue declines, reflecting weaker destination traffic

3. Online Segment Transition: Revenue-sharing changes post-FanDuel create near-term headwinds for the Online segment

4. Weather Sensitivity: The December winter weather impact highlights operational vulnerability to weather events

5. Asset Impairments: The company recorded $128.4 million in non-cash impairment charges for FY 2025

Key Takeaways

For Bulls:

• 5th consecutive quarterly beat demonstrates operational consistency
• Record annual revenues of $4.1B
• Aggressive capital return: $800M+ to shareholders in 2025, continuing at $150M+/quarter
• Balance sheet significantly strengthened post-FanDuel (1.7x leverage)
• Multiple near-term catalysts: Cadence Crossing (March), Sky River expansion (Feb), Suncoast completion (Q3)
• Management signaling M&A readiness with disciplined approach
• Tax legislation tailwinds for 40%+ of customer base (65+ demographic)

For Bears:

• EBITDAR margins contracting despite revenue growth
• Core Las Vegas markets showing destination weakness (~$6M hotel revenue decline at Orleans)
• Online segment EBITDAR dropping significantly: $30-35M guided vs $63M in 2025
• EPS growth heavily reliant on share count reduction
• Leverage rising to ~2.5x by year-end 2026 from 1.7x currently
• ~$5M January weather headwind already impacting Q1

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Boyd Gaming operates 28 gaming properties across ten states and manages a tribal casino in Northern California. The company is celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2025.

Related: BYD Company Profile | Q3 2025 Earnings | Latest Transcript