Maplebear Inc. (CART)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered double‑digit growth: revenue $0.914B (+11% y/y), orders 82.7M (+17% y/y), GTV $9.081B (+11% y/y); GAAP net income rose to $116M (+92% y/y) and Adjusted EBITDA to $262M (+26% y/y) .
• Against S&P Global consensus, CART beat on revenue ($914M vs $896M*) and EPS ($0.430 vs $0.384*); S&P’s EBITDA “actual” ($131M*) is not comparable to company-reported Adjusted EBITDA ($262M), reflecting differing definitions; revenue/EPS beat was the primary upside surprise* .
• Q3 2025 guidance was set at GTV $9.00–$9.15B and Adjusted EBITDA $260–$270M, implying continued y/y growth and operating leverage; Q2’s actuals exceeded Q1’s Q2 guidance for both GTV and Adjusted EBITDA .
• Strategic catalysts: AI‑driven personalization (“Smart Shop”), improving fulfillment efficiency (batching; <60-minute priority delivery), resilient ads monetization, and expanded enterprise tech (Wynshop acquisition); share repurchases increased by $111M, with $357M capacity remaining .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Strong volume growth as online grocery adoption accelerates: orders +17% y/y to 82.7M; GTV +11% y/y to $9.081B; management highlighted momentum and “over $8 of gross profit per order” in Q2 .
• Advertising & other revenue +12% y/y to $255M with investment rate steady at 2.8%; growing brand partner base (>7,500) and new off‑platform partnerships (Pinterest; deeper Trade Desk integration) fortify ads resiliency .
• Operating leverage: GAAP opex fell to 6.1% of GTV (from 7.0%), aided by lower SBC intensity; Adjusted opex improved to 4.8% of GTV; Adjusted EBITDA expanded to $262M (29% margin) .

Management quotes:

• “Our strategy is working… well‑positioned to lead as AI transforms how people make decisions and manage their daily lives.” — Fidji Simo .
• “We’ve grown gross profit per order to over $8 in Q2… batching more orders and saving seconds and pennies of our delivery cost per order.” — Fidji Simo (earnings call) .

What Went Wrong

• AOV down ~5% y/y, driven by restaurant orders contribution and $10 basket minimums for Instacart+ to waive delivery fees; this pressured transaction revenue as a percent of GTV (flat y/y, not expanding) .
• Cost of revenue grew faster than revenue (credit card fees +$12M; publisher payments +$9M; D&A +$8M), reducing gross margin to 74% from 76% y/y .
• Higher tax provision (+$18M y/y) and ongoing legal/regulatory matters (worker classification accruals and FTC discussions) are risk overhangs despite opex efficiency .

Financial Results

Segment revenue

KPIs and efficiency

Guidance Changes

Notes: Company reiterated expectation to expand Adjusted EBITDA y/y on absolute and % of GTV basis for 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Priority… averages under 60 minutes… we now batch 25% of priority orders without compromising overall speed or quality.” — Shareholder Letter .
• “Advertising & other revenue… reflecting the increased resiliency of our ads platform as our diversification efforts are working.” — Shareholder Letter .
• “Looking ahead to Q3… GTV $9,000–$9,150M… Adjusted EBITDA $260–$270M… orders growth will outpace GTV growth.” — Shareholder Letter (Outlook) .
• “We’ve grown gross profit per order to over $8 in Q2… and cumulatively… bought back over $1.6B worth of shares.” — Earnings call (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

• Orders moderation in Q3 expected as company laps first full quarter of restaurants; grocery engagement remains healthy per suite of products (management) .
• Ads growth expected to align with GTV in Q3; diversification and off‑platform partnerships support resiliency (management) .
• Capital allocation: $111M repurchased in Q2; remaining buyback capacity $357M; ~$1.7B cash and similar assets (balance sheet strength) .

Estimates Context

Notes: Company reports Adjusted EBITDA ($262M in Q2) ; S&P Global’s EBITDA definition differs from company non‑GAAP and thus is not directly comparable.
Disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Volume-led growth with disciplined reinvestment: orders outpacing GTV; continued operating leverage and Adjusted EBITDA expansion (Q2 beat vs guide) .
• Ads resiliency and data monetization are durable growth engines; diversification beyond platform (Pinterest, Trade Desk) supports consistency through macro cycles .
• AOV pressure from restaurants and affordability initiatives is an intentional trade-off to deepen engagement; watch transaction take-rate and batching efficiency trends .
• Enterprise tech flywheel (Storefront Pro, Wynshop, Caper Carts, FoodStorm) accelerates retailer adoption and omnichannel breadth, reinforcing moat .
• Legal/regulatory exposure persists (worker classification; FTC discussions); monitor accruals and potential compliance costs as a valuation overhang .
• Capital returns and balance sheet strength (cash ~$1.7B; buyback capacity $357M) offer downside support; repurchases can amplify EPS and signal confidence .
• Near-term trading: likely positive bias on revenue/EPS beats and stronger Q3 guide; medium-term thesis rests on AI‑driven personalization, ads/data scale, and enterprise expansion vs regulatory risks .

Appendix: Additional Primary Sources

• Q2 2025 8‑K Item 2.02 and Shareholder Letter including financials, outlook, KPI definitions .
• Q2 2025 10‑Q with detailed financial statements and MD&A .
• Q1 2025 8‑K and Shareholder Letter for trend and prior guidance .
• Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript (public sources) .