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MI

Maplebear Inc. (CART)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered double‑digit top-line growth with clear operating leverage: revenue $0.939B (+10% YoY), diluted EPS $0.51 (+21% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $278M (+22% YoY). Orders rose 14% YoY to 83.4M and GTV grew 10% to $9.17B despite AOV down 4% YoY as affordability initiatives and restaurant mix expanded usage .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, CART posted a modest beat on revenue and EPS: $939.0M vs $933.3M* and $0.514 vs $0.494*, respectively. S&P “EBITDA Consensus Mean” differs from company Adjusted EBITDA; S&P shows Q3 EBITDA actual $175M vs $267.2M* estimate, while company Adjusted EBITDA was $278M .
  • Q4 2025 outlook: GTV $9.45–$9.60B and Adjusted EBITDA $285–$295M, with orders growth outpacing GTV; ads growth guided to +6%–9% YoY as some large CPGs moderate spend amid macro uncertainty—management targets a return to double‑digit ads growth in 2026 .
  • Capital return stepped up: buyback authorization raised to $2.5B and a $250M ASR to commence, underscoring confidence in long‑term value creation .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Healthy growth with efficiency: Orders +14% YoY to 83.4M; GTV +10% YoY to $9.17B; Adjusted EBITDA +22% YoY to $278M (3.0% of GTV; 30% margin). OCF of $287M rose $102M YoY on strong operations .
  • Strategic partner depth and enterprise expansion: Kroger reaffirmed Instacart as its primary delivery fulfillment partner across all digital properties; Storefront now powers 350+ e‑commerce sites; Restaurant Depot launched Storefront Pro; 40+ net-new retailer sites launched in H1, continuing into Q3 .
  • Ads ecosystem resilience and validation: Ads & other revenue +10% YoY to $269M (2.9% of GTV); MRC accreditation expanded to Carrot Ads, adding third‑party‑verified metrics across 240+ ecommerce partner sites .

Selected quotes:

  • “We’re the clear leader in online grocery among digital‑first players… and we operate a profitable, cash‑generating model that gives us the flexibility to keep investing in what’s next.” — CEO Chris Rogers .
  • “I’m confident that we can return advertising and other revenue to double‑digit growth in 2026.” — CFO Emily Reuter .

What Went Wrong

  • AOV pressure: Average order value fell ~4% YoY, driven by restaurant mix and $10 basket minimum for Instacart+ to waive delivery fees, partially offset by larger baskets elsewhere .
  • Near‑term ads deceleration: Q4 guide for ads & other +6%–9% YoY as some large partners moderate spend amid macro/trend shifts, creating near‑term pressure despite mid‑market strength .
  • Margin mix impact: GAAP gross profit as % of revenue dipped to 74% (from 75% in Q3’24) and as % of GTV to 7.5% (from 7.7% in Q3’24), primarily on higher cost of revenue .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and KPIs (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)852 897 914 939
Diluted EPS ($)0.42 0.37 0.41 0.51
Gross Profit ($M)641 671 678 692
Gross Margin (% of Revenue)75% 75% 74% 74%
Net Income ($M)118 106 116 144
Net Income Margin (% of Rev)14% 12% 13% 15%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)227 244 262 278
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (% of Rev)27% 27% 29% 30%
Orders (Millions)72.9 83.2 82.7 83.4
GTV ($USD Millions)8,303 9,122 9,081 9,170
Operating Cash Flow ($M)—298 203 287

Revenue Mix (oldest → newest)

Segment Revenue ($M)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Transaction Revenue650 659 670
Advertising & Other247 255 269

KPIs and AOV Dynamics (oldest → newest)

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Orders (Millions)83.2 82.7 83.4
GTV ($M)9,122 9,081 9,170
AOV YoY Change-4% -5% -4%

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2025 ActualQ2 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($M)914 895.8*939 933.3*
Diluted EPS ($)0.4298 0.3835*0.5141 0.4941*
EBITDA ($M) Note: S&P vs company Adjusted EBITDA basis differs262 Adj. EBITDA 246.5 (EBITDA)*278 Adj. EBITDA 267.2 (EBITDA)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
GTV ($B)Q4 2025—9.45 – 9.60 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q4 2025—285 – 295 New
Ads & Other Revenue Growth (YoY)Q4 2025—+6% to +9% (macro headwinds for some large partners) New
Stock‑based CompensationQ4 2025—To normalize and be more in line with Q2 2025 Update
Share RepurchasesOngoingPrior $1.0B program tranchesAuthorization increased to $2.5B; $250M ASR to commence Nov 11, 2025 Increased

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Affordability/Price ParityExpanded loyalty and “Flyers”; more banners at price parity; AOV down 4–5% YoY as lower minimums/restaurants broadened use Ongoing push; retailers at price parity grow ~10ppt faster; pilots in Chicago, Dallas, Nashville, Tampa, Tucson; AOV -4% YoY Accelerating retailer adoption
Enterprise platform40+ net‑new Storefront sites in H1; deepening with Publix; FoodStorm expansion; Caper pilots 350+ storefronts; Restaurant Depot on Storefront Pro; Kroger primary delivery fulfillment partner; international enterprise opportunity Expanding breadth & depth
Ads ecosystemUniversal Campaigns; Carrot Ads with Uber Eats; 7,500+ brands; Trade Desk/Pinterest partnerships Ads & other +10% YoY; MRC accreditation expanded to Carrot Ads; off‑platform with TikTok; aim to 4–5% of GTV over time Resilient; near‑term decel, long‑term bullish
AI/TechnologySmart Shop personalization; Store View inventory intelligence; AI catalog tools Launched “AI Solutions” (Cart Assistant, Store View, Catalog Engine, Agentic Analytics); Kroger/Sprouts pilots Broadening commercialization
Competition (Amazon)Noted focus on large baskets & O&O sites No meaningful AOV/basket mix change in overlap markets; using dynamics to rally retailers toward omnichannel and pricing pilots Stable; proactive positioning
InternationalWynshop acquisition set base Enterprise‑led expansion (Storefront, Caper, FoodStorm) in Europe/Australia; disciplined spend Exploring; early innings
RegulatoryWorker classification matters; tax reserves in non‑GAAP reconciliationsNYC delivery minimum wage for grocery in 2026—company opposes; small GTV exposure; expects to navigate Emerging headwind manageable

Management Commentary

  • “We’re not just a marketplace. We’re the leading technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry… That’s why we increased our share repurchase program by $1.5 billion.” — CEO Chris Rogers .
  • “Advertising and other revenue [Q4] to grow 6%–9% YoY… confident in returning to double‑digit growth next year and achieving 4%–5% of GTV long‑term.” — CFO Emily Reuter .
  • “Price parity retailers are growing 10 percentage points faster… several banners testing price parity in major markets.” — CEO Chris Rogers .
  • “Unit economics are positive and continue to strengthen across all basket sizes… batching about a quarter of priority orders; fulfill time down ~25% over four years.” — CFO Emily Reuter .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital allocation and outlook: Management boosted buybacks, initiating a $250M ASR, citing durable cash generation and confidence in multi‑engine growth (Marketplace, Enterprise, Ads) .
  • Ads cadence: Near‑term softness among some large CPGs offsets strong mid‑market; expanded surfaces (Carrot Ads, Caper Ads, TikTok/Pinterest) underpin 2026 re‑acceleration ambitions .
  • Affordability strategy: Multiple levers (loyalty, flyers, price parity) to lower effective prices while maintaining unit economics via density, batching, and efficiency gains; price‑parity pilots underway .
  • Competitive dynamics: No adverse changes in AOV or basket mix in Amazon overlap markets; using competitive pressure to deepen retailer integrations and in‑store tech (Caper) .
  • International: Enterprise‑led, asset‑light expansion with existing products; disciplined spend to preserve annual EBITDA progression .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 performance vs S&P Global: Revenue $939.0M vs $933.3M* (beat), EPS $0.514 vs $0.494* (beat). S&P’s “EBITDA Consensus Mean” basis differs from company Adjusted EBITDA (company $278M vs S&P “EBITDA” actual $175M*), so interpret with caution .
  • Forward S&P consensus: Q4 2025 revenue $970.5M*, EPS $0.521*; company guided GTV to $9.45–$9.60B and Adjusted EBITDA to $285–$295M, without revenue guidance .
  • Implications: Modest top‑line/EPS beats and stronger than expected Adjusted EBITDA reinforce upward estimate bias for profitability; however, Q4 ads growth guide (+6%–9%) and AOV pressure could temper near‑term revenue estimate revisions.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Forward S&P Consensus (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Revenue Consensus Mean ($M)970.5*985.7*999.5*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.521*0.527*0.504*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($M)292.3*276.9*292.1*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality beat with operating leverage: revenue and EPS beat S&P consensus; Adjusted EBITDA +22% YoY with margin to 30%, supported by fulfillment efficiencies and lower paid marketing intensity YoY .
  • Mix headwinds managed: AOV down 4% YoY as affordability policies expand TAM, but density/batching gains and reduced incentives offset monetization pressure, preserving transaction take and EBITDA expansion .
  • Ads near‑term softer, long‑term stronger: Q4 +6%–9% YoY guide reflects macro caution at large CPGs; broader surfaces (Carrot Ads, Caper Ads) and off‑platform (TikTok/Pinterest) support re‑acceleration in 2026 .
  • Enterprise moat widening: 350+ storefronts, Kroger primary delivery fulfillment, Restaurant Depot launch, and international enterprise strategy extend multi‑year runway .
  • Capital returns as support: Buyback enlarged to $2.5B with a $250M ASR provides downside cushion and EPS accretion amid profitable growth .
  • Watch items: execution on Q4 guide amid EBT/SNAP funding scenarios, progress of price‑parity pilots at scale, and ads demand from large CPGs into 2026 .
  • Trading setup: Positive narrative (beats, larger buyback, enterprise depth) vs near‑term ads deceleration; focus on durability of order growth > GTV growth and evidence of ads re‑acceleration catalysts in early 2026 .

Supporting Documents and Releases

  • Q3 2025 8‑K with Shareholder Letter (financials, KPIs, buyback/ASR, outlook) .
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (themes, guidance color, competition, affordability, AI, international) .
  • Other relevant Q3 press releases: AI Solutions launch (enterprise AI suite) ; MRC accreditation extended to Carrot Ads ; Grubhub grocery partnership .
  • Prior quarters for trend analysis: Q1 2025 8‑K (Smart Shop, Store View, Q1 financials) ; Q2 2025 8‑K (Price parity progress, H1 Storefront launches, Q2 financials, initial Q3 outlook) .