Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Instacart is experiencing strong growth in its Instacart Plus membership program, with the growth of Instacart Plus members outpacing monthly active orders and leading to increased order frequency and higher total GTV, indicating high customer engagement and loyalty.
- Advertising revenue is expected to grow faster than GTV in Q1, supported by an expanding base of over 7,000 active brand partners, particularly strong growth from emerging brands, and innovative ad solutions, positioning Instacart to capture a larger share of advertising spend in the long term. ,
- Strategic investments in new verticals like restaurants are resulting in a halo effect that strengthens Instacart's core grocery business, increasing user engagement, order frequency, and Instacart Plus adoption without negatively impacting larger basket orders, thereby enhancing overall platform stickiness and growth. ,
- Declining Average Order Value (AOV) Expected Due to Restaurants and $10 Minimum Basket Feature
- Advertising Revenue Growth Challenges Amid Macro Headwinds
- Uncertainty in Expanding Key Partnerships Such as Walmart
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +10% (from $803M in Q4 2023 to $883M in Q4 2024) | Total revenue growth was driven by increased demand in both transaction operations and advertising services, building on prior quarter performance and new product adoptions such as shoppable ads. This reflects underlying improvements in consumer activity and market acceptance compared to last year. |
Business Segment Revenue | Transaction revenue: $616M; Advertising & Other revenue: $267M | Transaction revenue grew steadily from continued increases in order volume while advertising revenue benefited from higher ad volumes and expanded product features. This segment evolution builds on previous periods’ dynamics, further diversifying revenue streams. |
Geographic Revenue | Dominantly U.S.: $848M; International: $35M | The U.S. market remains the core revenue driver with $848M in Q4 2024, while international revenue stayed low at $35M, indicating a continued concentration in mature markets. This mirrors the prior period’s structure and reflects both market focus and regulatory or local market challenges abroad. |
Operating Income | +237% (from $46M in Q4 2023 to $155M in Q4 2024) | Operating income improved dramatically due to significant cost management and efficiency gains, coupled with revenue enhancements. This turnaround builds on earlier improvements in operating efficiencies and reflects a deeper reduction in expenses relative to revenue growth when compared to Q4 2023. |
Net Income | +10% (from $135M in Q4 2023 to $148M in Q4 2024) | Net income benefited from the combined effects of revenue growth and improved operating margins. The more modest percentage increase relative to operating income indicates that underlying profitability stabilized after previous volatility in expense management. |
Earnings Per Share (EPS) | Drastic decline from Basic EPS of $9.49 in Q4 2023 to $0.56 in Q4 2024 | EPS was severely diluted due to a significant increase in the weighted-average shares outstanding from post-IPO equity issuances. Although underlying profitability improved, the EPS metric reflects the impact of the larger share base compared to the higher EPS figure in Q4 2023. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) | Q1 2025 | $8.5B–$8.65B | $9B–$9.5B | raised |
Average Order Value (AOV) | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | decline year-over-year | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | Q1 2025 | $230M–$240M | $220M–$230M | lowered |
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | 2025 | no prior guidance | less than $425M (with Q1 2025 being the lowest quarter) | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Advertising Revenue Growth and Challenges | Across Q1–Q3, advertising was consistently discussed – with Q1 highlighting long‐term targets and a gap with GTV , Q2 emphasizing emerging brands, new ad formats, and omnichannel partnerships , and Q3 noting record growth driven by emerging brands and diversification despite pullbacks from large CPGs. | In Q4, the discussion focused on a 10% YoY growth supported by strong ROAS and diversification (emerging and large brands), but also on challenges including macroeconomic headwinds in the food and beverage sector and competitive pressures. | Consistent focus on advertising growth with a long‐term target, but the Q4 call introduces more caution due to external macro factors. The sentiment remains largely optimistic on performance and innovation while acknowledging headwinds. |
Instacart Plus Membership and Customer Loyalty | Across Q1–Q3, Instacart Plus was emphasized as a crucial tool for deepening engagement – Q1 focused on its enhanced value proposition with free delivery and data-driven customer loyalty , Q2 highlighted its rapid growth and contribution to GTV with expanded partnerships , and Q3 underlined rising subscriber numbers and integrated affordability and loyalty measures. | Q4 underscored that Plus membership growth outpaced order growth, with new affordability initiatives such as the $10 minimum basket and added restaurant options further strengthening customer loyalty and engagement. | Persistent positive sentiment – membership consistently remains a key strength. In Q4, additional features and integration with restaurants enhance the value proposition, reinforcing long-term loyalty with a subtly more feature-driven narrative. |
Expansion into Restaurants and New Vertical Investments | In Q1–Q3, the company consistently discussed expanding beyond groceries – Q1 announced a strategic Uber partnership to incorporate restaurants and diversify verticals , Q2 focused on scaling restaurant offerings and broadening to non‐grocery categories like beauty and home improvement , and Q3 highlighted strong early adoption of restaurant orders and significant investments in new initiatives such as Caper Carts and Instacart Business. | Q4 continued this theme with an emphasis on adding restaurants not only to diversify but to create a halo effect that boosts grocery engagement; new vertical investments are intended to further integrate the platform’s core areas like affordability and selection. | Steady expansion strategy – the dual focus on restaurants and new verticals has been maintained. The narrative in Q4 is consistent with previous periods, reinforcing confidence in diversification to drive growth and customer engagement. |
Technological Innovations with Caper Smart Carts | From Q1 through Q3, Caper Smart Carts were featured as technological differentiators – Q1 detailed strong consumer uptake and advertising potential , Q2 emphasized seamless integration of online and in‑store experiences alongside advertising opportunities , and Q3 discussed aggressive scaling, operational integration challenges, and promising market penetration. | Q4 highlighted further innovation with Caper Smart Carts showing strong customer engagement, increased basket sizes, robust in‑store ad performance, and early international deployments with partners like Coles and Aldi. | Ongoing innovation and scale – the program has evolved from pilot-stage successes to more advanced operational integration and international rollout in Q4. While operational challenges remain, the expanded advertising potential and integration highlight a positive maturity trend. |
Customer Affordability, Savings, and Order Frequency | Q1 emphasized affordability improvements with increased savings per order. In Q2, targeted incentives, loyalty integrations, and club orders were credited with boosting order frequency along with new use cases. Q3 reinforced affordability efforts with significant YoY gains in savings and stable order growth. | In Q4, efforts to improve affordability drove an 11% increase in orders and deepened engagement; however, there was also a noted decline in AOV due to a higher mix of restaurant orders and the roll-out of features like the $10 minimum basket. | Generally positive with a nuance – affordability and savings continue to boost order frequency and customer engagement. Q4 introduces caution as lower AOV is observed, even as overall order growth remains robust. |
Retailer Partnerships, Contract, and Service Adoption Risks | In Q1–Q3, retailer partnerships consistently focused on deep integration, non-exclusive contracts, and multifaceted service offerings – Q1 discussed contract lengths and being the partner of choice despite nonexclusivity , Q2 emphasized integrated enterprise storefront solutions and operational integration , and Q3 detailed how new service adoption boosts retailer growth despite slower integration pace. | Q4 maintained the narrative of strong retailer partnerships, underscored by initiatives around price parity and the rapid onboarding of new net retailer sites, while also including forward-looking risk reminders from regulatory filings. | Consistent and stable – the commitment to strong, integrated partnerships is persistent. Q4 reiterates previous strengths while formalizing risks and uncertainties, suggesting careful management of operational challenges as they scale. |
Sustainability of Transaction Revenue Growth and Reinvestment Returns | Previous calls from Q1–Q3 stressed efficiency improvements and targeted reinvestment – Q1 talked about reinvesting efficiencies from higher shopper performance , Q2 noted the use of a disciplined NPV framework to reinvest in growth initiatives , and Q3 emphasized reinvestment in affordability and operational efficiencies. | Q4 continued to stress that transaction revenue remains in the upper half of the long-term target range, with reinvestment in initiatives such as affordability improvements and new use cases; fluctuations in transaction revenue were acknowledged as part of strategic reinvestment. | Long‑term sustainability focus maintained – the narrative remains that operational efficiencies and disciplined reinvestment underpin sustainable revenue growth. Q4 continues the same strategic framework with slight caution over quarter‑to‑quarter fluctuations. |
Declining Average Order Value (AOV) | In Q1 and Q2, AOV was either not mentioned or noted as growing due to shifts in customer behavior and club orders. Q3 reported a modest 1% increase in AOV alongside robust GTV growth. | Q4 pointed to a decline in AOV, attributing it to the increased mix of restaurant orders, seasonality effects ahead of major holidays, and the introduction of the $10 minimum basket program. | New cautionary note – while earlier periods reported stable or rising AOV, Q4 introduces concerns about a decline. This new element is a potential risk area that may impact revenue metrics if the trend persists. |
Macro Economic Headwinds Impacting Growth | In Q1–Q3, there was little to no mention of macroeconomic pressures affecting growth, with the focus remaining squarely on operational strategies and customer engagement [N/A in Q1, Q2, Q3]. | Q4 explicitly acknowledged macroeconomic headwinds in the food and beverage sector as a factor that could limit growth potential, despite strong advertising and operational performance. | Emerging concern – macroeconomic headwinds appear as a new negative sentiment in Q4 that was not discussed previously. This could materially impact future growth if adverse conditions persist. |
Stagnant Shopper Growth Impacting Scalability | Across Q1–Q3, there was no significant negative sentiment; Q3, in particular, emphasized a healthy shopper supply with robust retention and efficient operational strategies. | Q4 did not specifically mention stagnant shopper growth – instead, the focus was on a healthy and robust shopper supply with waitlists across many cities. | Stable sentiment – shopper growth remains strong with no new concerns emerging. The positive operational narrative continues from previous periods through to Q4. |
Shifts in Advertising Data Strategies and Cookie Deprecation | Q1 discussed shifts towards leveraging first‑party data amid cookie deprecation, emphasizing data-driven partnerships for enhanced audience targeting and measurement. Q2–Q3 did not reiterate this theme. | In Q4, there was no mention of data strategy shifts or cookie deprecation, suggesting that this topic has receded in emphasis as the focus shifted to other advertising and growth metrics. | Diminished focus – while important in Q1, the attention to advertising data strategy has faded by Q4. This likely reflects a strategic consolidation as Instacart continues to rely on its already robust first‑party data ecosystem rather than continually adapting to third‑party changes. |
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Advertising Growth Potential
Q: Why isn't advertising growing faster? What's the unlock to reach 15%-20% growth?
A: Fidji Simo explained that ads and other revenue are expected to grow faster than their GTV guide in Q1. Compared to other retail media platforms, many have other sources beyond food and beverage, and the macroeconomic environment for food and beverage is still challenged. They remain confident in their long-term target of ads being between 4%-5% of GTV. -
Constraints to Faster Top-Line Growth
Q: What are the constraints to faster top-line growth in the 2025 budgeting process?
A: Emily Maher stated they are committed to continuing to prove the economics of the business while expanding adjusted EBITDA margins annually. They are focusing on becoming more efficient across all areas, freeing up dollars to reinvest where they see the best returns. Active management allows them flexibility to invest in opportunities that drive long-term profitable growth. -
Key Investments and EBITDA Margins
Q: What are the key investment areas for 2025, especially in-store solutions like Caper Carts? How should we frame the steady annual adjusted EBITDA margin expansion?
A: Fidji Simo highlighted continued investment in their core areas: selection, affordability, convenience, and speed. They are excited about enterprise solutions like Caper Carts, which are generating double-digit increases in basket size at retailers. Emily Maher mentioned they commit to expanding EBITDA on an absolute and margin basis annually, allowing flexibility to reinvest when there are opportunities for long-term profitable growth. -
Advertising Strategy and Macroeconomic Impact
Q: How is the advertising pipeline between large CPG and emerging brands? Will the new category share of digital shelf space metric help future budget allocations?
A: Fidji Simo noted that diversification efforts are working, with over 7,000 active brands on the platform and strong growth from emerging brands. The share of digital shelf space metric helps brands understand their presence and encourages spending to maintain or gain share. -
Caper Carts Deployment and Impact
Q: How quickly can you ramp the implementation of Caper Carts, and what are the main challenges?
A: Fidji Simo stated they are seeing excellent results from pilots, with customers loving the product and retailers experiencing double-digit increases in basket size. They have thousands of commitments from retailers in progress, but scaling involves physical deployment and operational integration, which takes time. -
Affordability Initiatives and Smaller Baskets
Q: How do the economics work for smaller baskets with reduced free delivery thresholds?
A: Fidji Simo explained they are seeing an increase in order frequency, total GTV, and higher Instacart Plus adoption without impacting larger basket orders. They can do this economically by batching orders due to high order density. -
Shopper Supply Health
Q: Can you talk about shopper supply trends and any impact from tighter immigration controls?
A: Fidji Simo reported that shopper supply is very healthy, with waitlists in most cities and the majority of orders delivered by tenured shoppers, enhancing quality. Their shopper demographics differ from competitors, with two-thirds being female and over 50% being parents. -
Transaction Revenue Fluctuations and AOV
Q: What's driving the take rate fluctuations and how is AOV being affected, especially by restaurants?
A: Emily Maher said they are operating transaction revenue in the upper half of their long-term target range and aren't aiming to increase it linearly due to reinvestment choices. In Q4, overall AOV was down year-over-year due to restaurants, and in Q1 they expect orders to grow faster than GTV. -
Subscriber Growth and Walmart Relationship
Q: Can we get an update on subscriber growth or percentage of GTV from subscribers? Any update on the Walmart relationship?
A: Fidji Simo confirmed that the majority of GTV still comes from Instacart Plus members, and growth of Instacart Plus members has outpaced the growth of monthly active orders. Regarding Walmart, they have rolled out in several hundred U.S. stores, but any expansion is Walmart's decision. -
Advertising Investments Driving Growth
Q: What are the key investments to drive ad revenue growth this year?
A: Fidji Simo outlined four areas: performance, scale, diversification, and innovation. They focus on leading performance metrics, expanding scale through Carrot Ads and partnerships, diversifying their advertiser base, and innovating with new formats and measurement capabilities. -
Business Acceleration Potential
Q: Is there an opportunity to accelerate the business further as initiatives mature?
A: Fidji Simo feels very positive about leading indicators like user acquisition, retention, increased order frequency, deepening Instacart Plus penetration, and competitive advantages in selection and quality. They believe they have strong operating fundamentals to continue growth. -
Platform Growth in Grocery and Non-Grocery
Q: How do you see the platform set up for grocery-driven and non-grocery-driven growth?
A: Fidji Simo sees strength across both grocery and non-grocery segments. The addition of restaurants not only provides a new use case but also increases grocery business by enhancing platform stickiness, creating a halo effect on user behavior. -
Impact of Super Bowl Ad on Marketing Spend
Q: What's the impact of the Super Bowl ad on marketing spend, and have you seen any benefits?
A: Emily Maher stated that the Super Bowl ad investment was funded from their existing portfolio and not incremental spend. The ads are designed for brand awareness, and while it's early, they are pleased with the impact so far. -
International Enterprise Opportunities
Q: Do you see an opportunity to be a global enterprise solution without a consumer-facing marketplace?
A: Fidji Simo agreed they see an opportunity to offer enterprise solutions internationally, as demonstrated by deploying Caper Carts with Coles in Australia and Aldi in Austria. However, they are still very focused on the U.S. and consider international growth as a future driver.