Maplebear Inc. (CART)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 delivered double-digit growth with GTV $8.65B (+10% YoY), revenue $883M (+10% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA $252M (+27% YoY); GAAP diluted EPS was $0.53 and net income $148M (+$13M YoY) .
• Mix shift drove orders +11% YoY to 77.5M while AOV declined 1% YoY to $112, reflecting restaurant orders and affordability initiatives; ads & other revenue grew 10% YoY, investment rate steady at 3.1% .
• Q1 2025 outlook: GTV $9.00–$9.15B (+8–10% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $220–$230M; management expects orders growth to outpace GTV as AOV declines, and targets 2025 SBC < $425M .
• Key catalysts: above-guide Q4 adjusted EBITDA, continued ads momentum (management expects ads to grow faster than GTV in Q1), and omnichannel initiatives (Caper Carts, Carrot Ads) showing strong retailer and consumer traction .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Strong profitability: adjusted EBITDA $252M (+27% YoY) with margin 29%, beating guidance; GAAP net income rose to $148M despite lapping prior-year tax benefits .
• Order growth and Instacart+ engagement: orders +11% YoY; management emphasized increased frequency and stronger Plus adoption, aided by restaurants and $10 minimum basket feature .
• Omnichannel momentum: double-digit basket size lifts with Caper Carts; location-aware ads on carts showing engagement comparable to online formats; expanded Carrot Ads with partners like Hy-Vee and Schnucks (+7x RMN revenue) .

Quote: “We’re seeing double-digit increases in basket sizes with Caper Carts… and engagement rates similar to our online ad formats” .

What Went Wrong

• Sequential working capital headwinds: operating cash flow fell to $153M (−$80M YoY) due to working capital fluctuations .
• AOV pressure: average order value decreased 1% YoY to $112, driven by restaurant orders and affordability investments; management expects AOV declines to continue near term .
• Macro ads commentary: while ads rose 10% YoY, management noted large CPG softness and a challenged F&B macro backdrop, partly offset by emerging brands .

Financial Results

Segment breakdown:

KPIs and efficiency:

Guidance Changes

Management noted Q1 seasonality in ads & other revenue, continued AOV decline (restaurants, $10 basket), and orders growth outpacing GTV .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Among digital first platforms, we are leading in share of sales by far in small baskets and even more so in large baskets… greater than 70% share in baskets of $75 and up” .
• “Adjusted EBITDA of $252 million exceeded the high end of our guidance range and was up 27% year-over-year” .
• “We’ve lowered our minimum basket size for $0 delivery fees from $35 to $10 for Instacart+ members… early data shows it can help increase order frequency, drive incremental GTV” .
• “Major retailers are seeing double-digit percentage increases in basket sizes with Caper Carts… engagement rates similar to our online ad formats” .
• “We now have over 220 Carrot Ads partners… this results in a virtuous cycle of growth, performance and scale” .

Q&A Highlights

• Ads growth trajectory: management expects ads to grow faster than GTV in Q1; diversification to emerging brands and off-platform partnerships, with performance and measurement as key levers .
• Restaurants economics & AOV: $10 minimum basket increases frequency and Plus adoption; batching and store order density support favorable unit economics; AOV decline expected near term from restaurants and small baskets .
• Caper ramp and monetization: thousands of cart commitments across big/small retailers; double-digit sales increases and shared ad revenue streams; operational rollout and training are main bottlenecks .
• Guidance and SBC discipline: Q1 adjusted EBITDA $220–$230M with seasonal ad headwinds; SBC targeted < $425M for 2025 with a Q2 step-up from annual refresh .
• Shopper supply and quality: healthy supply with waitlists; majority of orders delivered by tenured shoppers; found/fill rates improved for 10 consecutive quarters, driving retention .

Estimates Context

• We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus (Revenue Consensus Mean, Primary EPS Consensus Mean) for Q2–Q4 2024, but access was unavailable at this time due to request limits. Values from S&P Global were therefore not accessible, and estimate comparisons are not included in the tables [GetEstimates error].
• Implication: focus on versus guidance and versus prior periods until consensus can be re-fetched; management reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA above guidance and GTV at the top end .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Mix shift is durable: orders growth outpacing GTV into Q1 2025 as restaurants and low-basket initiatives lift frequency; near-term AOV pressure is a trade-off for user engagement and Plus penetration .
• Profitability beat and leverage: Q4 adjusted EBITDA beat with margin expansion to 29%; adjusted opex as % GTV improved to 4.9%, underscoring operating discipline .
• Ads momentum and diversification: management guides ads growth faster than GTV in Q1, driven by emerging brands, Carrot Ads scale, and off-platform media; watch for budget shifts as macro F&B stabilizes .
• Omnichannel flywheel developing: Caper Carts and Carrot Tags show measurable in-store economics and ad engagement, strengthening the overall retail media pitch and platform defensibility .
• Cash flow variability: OCF down YoY in Q4 due to working capital; monitor cash conversion and any further capital allocation (buyback capacity ~$312M remaining) .
• Guidance setup: Q1 GTV $9.0–$9.15B and adjusted EBITDA $220–$230M with seasonal ad headwinds and AOV decline; steady annual adjusted EBITDA expansion remains a stated priority .
• Trading lens: Q4 EBITDA beat and Q1 ads/GTV commentary are likely near-term stock drivers; medium-term thesis rests on sustained order frequency gains, ad network scale, and omnichannel tech adoption .