Executive Summary

Core operating EPS of $7.49 beat S&P Global consensus of $6.16 and GAAP diluted EPS was $6.99; strength was driven by record underwriting income, lower CAT losses, and adjusted net investment income above expectations . Consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global data.*
Record P&C combined ratio of 81.8% vs 87.7% last year, with favorable prior period development of $361M and pre-tax CAT losses of $285M vs $765M last year; current accident year combined ratio ex-cat improved to 82.5% .
North America Personal P&C combined ratio improved sharply to 65.1% (from 81.3%), Overseas General grew 9.7% NPW with combined ratio of 83.3%, and Life Insurance NPW rose 24.6% with segment income up 14.2% .
Capital return accelerated: $1.23B of buybacks at ~$277.67 average price plus $385M dividends in Q3; management reiterated increased buyback activity given valuation below intrinsic value .
CFO guided Q4 adjusted net investment income to $1.775–$1.81B and full-year core operating effective tax rate to 19.5–20%; both support durable earnings power into Q4 and FY25 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record underwriting and investment results: P&C underwriting income $2.26B; adjusted net investment income $1.78B; core operating income $3.00B with core EPS $7.49 .
- Loss ratio improvements and favorable reserve development: combined ratio 81.8% with -3.0 pts PPD impact; favorable prior period development $361M; current accident year ex-cat combined ratio improved to 82.5% .
- North America Personal turnaround: combined ratio down 16.2 pts YoY; improvement from lower underlying losses in homeowners/auto and expense savings; CAE ex-cat down 6.6 pts .
What Went Wrong
- CAT volatility through nine months: YTD pre-tax CAT losses $2.56B vs $1.78B last year (convective storms, CA wildfires in Q1) .
- Global Reinsurance NPW declined 13.5% YoY, reflecting disciplined pullback amid softening property cat pricing; combined ratio improved but growth headwind remains .
- Expense mix pressures in NA Commercial (flat CAE ex-cat combined ratio with +0.6 pt expense ratio change from business mix) and continued softness in international financial lines pricing .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$13.418*	$14.925*	$16.263*
Primary EPS (S&P “Primary” = Core EPS) ($)	$3.68	$6.14	$7.49
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$3.29	$7.35	$6.99
P&C Combined Ratio (%)	95.7	85.6	81.8
P&C Underwriting Income ($USD Billions)	$0.441	$1.631	$2.259
Adjusted Net Investment Income ($USD Billions)	$1.67	$1.69	$1.776

Note: Values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (Net Premiums Written and Combined Ratios):

Segment	NPW Q3 2024 ($B)	NPW Q3 2025 ($B)	Combined Ratio Q3 2024 (%)	Combined Ratio Q3 2025 (%)
Total North America P&C	$8.56	$8.94	86.2	79.2
NA Commercial P&C	$5.50	$5.66	86.5	81.5
NA Personal P&C	$1.68	$1.81	81.3	65.1
NA Agricultural	$1.38	$1.46	90.4	88.0
Overseas General	$3.37	$3.70	86.0	83.3
Global Reinsurance	$0.35	$0.30	94.4	77.4
Life Insurance (NPW; Segment Income)	$1.55; $0.284	$1.93; $0.324	N/A	N/A

KPIs:

KPI	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Favorable Prior Period Development (pre-tax) ($M)	244	361
Pre-tax Catastrophe Losses ($M)	765	285
Operating Cash Flow ($B)	$4.318	$3.639
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow ($B)	$4.551	$4.509
Annualized Core Operating ROE (%)	13.9	16.3
Annualized Core Operating ROTE (%)	21.7	24.5

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted Net Investment Income ($B)	Q4 2025	Not disclosed	$1.775–$1.81	N/A
Core Operating Effective Tax Rate (%)	FY 2025	Not disclosed	19.5–20.0	N/A
Dividend per Share ($)	Q3 declared (paid Oct 3)	Not disclosed	$0.97 declared Aug 14	N/A
Buybacks	Ongoing	Not quantified	$1.23B in Q3 at $277.67 avg price	N/A

Management additionally signaled continued elevated repurchase activity given valuation vs intrinsic value .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
AI/Technology & Digital	Emphasis on digital distribution and operational digitization	Continued digital growth in consumer/A&H channels	“Digital and AI efforts… contributing to growth and beginning to transform the company”; expect expense leverage over time	Strengthening execution
Pricing/Macro	CA wildfires drove higher CAT; market competitive in large account/E&S property; casualty firm	Large account/E&S property more competitive; middle market disciplined; casualty firming	Market “in transition”; property softening in large account/E&S; middle market more orderly; casualty slowing but rational; financial lines soft	Property softening; disciplined growth
Regional Trends	Overseas General up in constant dollars; Asia/LatAm/Europe mid-single growth	Overseas General +10.2% constant; Asia +12.7%, LatAm +17.3%, Europe +8.2%	Overseas General +9.7%; Asia +14.3%, LatAm +10.6%, Europe +4.8%; London wholesale +8.5%	Broad-based contribution
Capital Return	$751M total capital return in Q1	$1.06B capital returned (buybacks + dividends)	$1.62B capital returned; buybacks increased; continued activity planned	Accelerating buybacks
ROE Outlook	Double-digit EPS and ROE target; CATs/FX notwithstanding	Core ROE improving	Raising medium-term ROE outlook to 14%+; “three engines” of earnings power (underwriting, life, invested assets)	Upward trajectory

Management Commentary

CEO: “Published underwriting income of $2.3 billion was up 55%… with a record combined ratio of 81.8%… Current accident year underwriting income excluding CATs was a record $2.2 billion, up 10%… most all of it coming from loss ratio improvement” .
CEO: “Adjusted net investment income of $1.8 billion was up 8.3%… Financial, economic and fiscal conditions favor continued attractive fixed income and alternative investment portfolio returns” .
CEO: “In the quarter, we increased share buybacks since our stock is trading well below intrinsic value. Given our earning power, increased buyback activity will continue” .
CFO: “Adjusted net investment income was $1.78 billion… above our previously guided range by ~$40M due to higher private equity income… We now expect adjusted net investment income in the fourth quarter to be between $1.775 billion and $1.81 billion” .
CFO: “Pre-tax prior period development… favorable $422M… short tail +$460M; long tail -$38M. Corporate runoff adverse development of $61M” .

Q&A Highlights

ROE Path: Management raised medium-term ROE outlook to 14%+ driven by underwriting, life income, and invested assets; buybacks to continue while building invested assets .
Overseas General Composition: Majority is middle market, small commercial, and consumer—not large account/E&S; property is most competitive while casualty generally adequately priced .
E&S Dynamics: Property shrank given pricing; growth in casualty and small commercial E&S supported by digital capabilities; programs like pet insurance contribute .
Investment Allocation: Increasing alternatives/private equity allocation to boost coupon and IRR; current yields ~7–7.5% with IRR ~15%+, supporting faster book value compounding .
Personal Lines Competitiveness: High net worth franchise differentiation in product richness, claims, global underwriting appetite; competition mainly on price in CAT-heavy areas .

Estimates Context

Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus:

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	3.23*	5.97*	6.16*
Primary EPS Actual ($)	3.68	6.14	7.49
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)	11.218*	12.533*	12.973*
Revenue Actual ($USD Billions)	13.418*	14.925*	16.263*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)	N/A	N/A	3.023*
EBITDA Actual ($USD Billions)	1.903*	3.405*	4.242*

Note: All consensus and actual revenue/EBITDA values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications:

Strong beats on EPS and revenue across all three quarters suggest upward pressure on FY estimate revisions, particularly in core EPS and investment income-driven items, with Q3’s combined ratio and PPD providing additional support .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Core earnings power is accelerating: record underwriting, improved loss ratios, and higher adjusted net investment income drive EPS beats and durability into Q4; CFO’s Q4 NII guidance underpins near-term visibility .
Underwriting discipline through cycle: property softening in large accounts/E&S offset by strong middle market and personal lines; expect continued margin resilience with targeted growth .
Reserve position and development trends are supportive: significant favorable short-tail development in Q3 and management confidence in reserve strength reduce tail risk perception .
Capital deployment is a catalyst: stepped-up repurchases ($1.23B) and ongoing dividend ($0.97) provide shareholder return while intrinsic value gap is emphasized by management .
Segment mix is a differentiator: NA Personal P&C improvement, Overseas General breadth (Asia/LatAm growth), and Life expansion (one-time NZ premium aside) diversify earnings drivers .
Watch reinsurance/property pricing: disciplined exposure in property cat and reinsurance may constrain growth but protect margins in a transitioning market .
Estimates likely to revise upward: consistent beats and Q4 NII guidance suggest consensus EPS/EBITDA/Revenue moves higher; monitor tax rate guidance (19.5–20%) for EPS sensitivity .

Additional Document References:

Q3 earnings press release and 8-K incorporation include full financial supplement and detail on non-GAAP definitions and reconciliations .
Prior quarters trend: Q2 record underwriting with combined ratio 85.6%; Q1 impacted by California wildfires with 95.7% combined ratio but strong CAE ex-cat .

Chubb Ltd (CB)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary