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CB

CHAIN BRIDGE BANCORP INC (CBNA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 EPS was $0.72, roughly in line with consensus $0.727; however, revenue of $13.22M missed consensus $14.15M, reflecting lower deposit placement fees and NIM compression from lower short-term rates and balance mix changes. Bolded miss: revenue (-6.6%) versus estimates.*
  • Net interest income rose sequentially to $12.3M, while net interest margin eased to 3.35% (from 3.39% in Q2); deposits rebuilt by $114.6M q/q, aided by political deposit inflows, and ICS One-Way Sell® deposits increased to $146.4M.
  • Capital and liquidity remain strong: Tier 1 risk-based capital 44.43%, total risk-based 45.56%, Tier 1 leverage 11.34%, liquidity ratio 89.54%, and NPA/Assets at 0.00%.
  • Trust & Wealth momentum accelerated: AUA rose to $552.4M (AUM $196.1M), with income of $355K; BVPS increased to $24.86.
  • Management highlighted that deposit activity was “consistent with historical patterns for a non-election year,” framing sentiment catalysts around deposit seasonality into the upcoming cycle and NIM trajectory.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Sequential net interest income growth (+$0.5M q/q) driven by higher balances in Fed deposits and taxable securities; trust & wealth income also increased. “For the third quarter, the Company reported net income of $4.7 million...”
  • Deposits rebuilt q/q (+$114.6M) amid political deposit inflows; reciprocal ICS® deposits supported NIM and balance sheet capacity.
  • Strong capital and liquidity: Tier 1 risk-based 44.43%, total risk-based 45.56%, liquidity ratio 89.54%, NPA/Assets 0.00%.

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue miss versus consensus, with noninterest income down sharply y/y ($0.85M vs $3.08M) due to lower deposit placement fees as balances shifted from One-Way Sell® to reciprocal ICS®. Bolded miss: revenue (-6.6%).*
  • Net interest margin compressed to 3.35% from 3.39% q/q and 3.73% y/y, with lower yields on Fed balances and higher interest expense on deposits despite declining cost of interest-bearing deposits.
  • Elevated operating costs (salaries/benefits) continuing from public company transition and growth, with total noninterest expense at $7.3M.

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$16.84 $14.61 $12.94 $13.22
EPS ($USD)$1.64 $0.85 $0.70 $0.72
Net Income ($USD Millions)$7.49 $5.61 $4.58 $4.70
Net Interest Margin (%)3.73% 3.56% 3.39% 3.35%

Note: Revenue defined as net interest income after provision/recapture of credit losses plus noninterest income, per disclosed statements.

Segment/Balance Mix

Metric ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Interest-bearing reserves (Fed)$627.05 $620.27 $364.84 $388.21
Total debt securities$597.10 $774.61 $758.50 $831.55
U.S. Treasury securities$242.30 $437.95 $426.19 $492.04
Gross loans$300.03 $302.00 $287.81 $284.08
Total deposits$1,433.87 $1,568.39 $1,281.92 $1,364.54
ICS® One-Way Sell® deposits$432.32 $93.19 $121.17 $146.44

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
ROAA (annualized)2.03% 1.43% 1.30% 1.27%
ROAE (annualized)29.90% 15.39% 11.93% 11.67%
Efficiency ratio44.43% 52.06% 56.71% 55.79%
Liquidity ratio85.31% 89.14% 88.21% 89.54%
Loan-to-deposit ratio20.92% 19.26% 22.45% 20.82%
Book value per share$22.95 $23.09 $23.92 $24.86
Trust & Wealth AUA$383.99 $409.39 $445.36 $552.39
Trust & Wealth AUM$111.23 $137.82 $158.08 $196.12

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net interest margin (directional)Post-Q1 2025 outlookManagement anticipated “lower net interest margin, lower net interest income, lower net income, and lower return on equity in future periods” following April 15 political deposit outflows No formal quantitative guidance provided in Q3 release; deposit activity described as consistent with non-election year patterns Maintained cautious tone; observed NIM decline Q1→Q2→Q3
Deposits/seasonalityOngoingHistorical pattern: rebuild after elections; timing differed in 2025 with surge then April outflows Q3 showed q/q deposit increase of $114.6M; activity consistent with patterns Stabilizing/rebuilding

No explicit ranges provided for revenue, margins, OpEx, OI&E, or tax rate.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in our document repository; themes below reflect disclosures across Q1–Q3 press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1, Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Political deposit seasonality & concentrationQ1: post-election surge; three accounts 30.1% of deposits; April 15 outflows of ~$506.5M . Q2: outflows early, then +$179.8M deposits from Apr 16–Jun 30 Deposits +$114.6M q/q; activity consistent with non-election year Stabilizing/rebuild underway
Interest rates (Fed IOR) & NIMQ2: IOR rate reduction drove NIM to 3.39% ; Q1 NIM was 3.56% NIM 3.35%; lower yields on Fed balances and mix effects Gradual compression
Balance sheet allocation (Fed balances, securities)Q1: elevated Fed balances and short USTs from surge ; Q2: average Fed balances down, taxable securities up Higher average Fed balances and taxable securities supported NII Mix optimizing for NII
Trust & Wealth growthQ1: AUA $409.4M; income $270K ; Q2: AUA $445.4M; income $305K AUA $552.4M; income $355K Accelerating
Capital & liquidityQ1: TCE/TA 8.77%, liquidity 89.14% ; Q2: TCE/TA 10.86%, liquidity 88.21% TCE/TA 10.63%, liquidity 89.54%, NPA 0.00% Strong/stable

Management Commentary

  • “For the third quarter, the Company reported net income of $4.7 million, producing a return on average equity of 11.67%... and maintained a liquidity ratio of 89.54%. Deposit activity during the quarter was consistent with historical patterns for a non-election year.” — Peter G. Fitzgerald, Chairman
  • “The second quarter began with deposit outflows from political organization accounts... Deposits then increased by $179.8 million from April 16 through June 30, ending the quarter at $1.3 billion... net income of $4.6 million, or $0.70 per share.” — Peter G. Fitzgerald, Chairman
  • Strategy highlights: shift of One-Way Sell® deposits to reciprocal ICS® retained on-balance sheet (supports NIM but reduces placement fee income), focus on liquid instruments during event-driven flows, and disciplined capital/liquidity posture.

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was available; Q&A highlights and clarifications are not accessible from primary sources searched.

Estimates Context

MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)ActualSurprise
EPS ($)0.727*0.72 -0.007 (-0.9%)*
Revenue ($USD Millions)14.15*13.22 -0.93 (-6.6%)*
EPS – # of Estimates3*——
Revenue – # of Estimates2*——

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Expect estimate revisions to reflect lower noninterest income run-rate (placement fees) and modest NIM compression; sequential NII growth may temper EPS changes if deposit momentum continues.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue miss (-6.6% vs consensus) driven by structurally lower deposit placement fees and NIM compression; EPS essentially in line, underscoring resilient core spread income amid balance mix changes.*
  • Deposits rebuilt q/q (+$114.6M), with ICS® One-Way Sell® up to $146.4M, supporting balance sheet flexibility into the next fundraising cycle.
  • NIM trend bears watching: 3.35% in Q3 (vs 3.39% Q2; 3.56% Q1) as lower yields on Fed balances and higher average interest-bearing deposits weigh; sequential NII growth is a positive offset.
  • Strong capital/liquidity (Tier 1 risk-based 44.43%; liquidity 89.54%; NPA 0.00%) provide downside protection and optionality for balance sheet deployment.
  • Trust & Wealth AUA/AUM growth (AUA $552.4M; AUM $196.1M) is a durable fee-income lever; continued inflows and market performance are tailwinds.
  • BVPS rose to $24.86, supported by earnings and OCI improvement from higher AFS fair values and pull-to-par; capital build remains intact.
  • Near-term trading lens: sentiment likely keyed to evidence of continued deposit rebuild and stabilization of NIM; medium-term thesis hinges on mix shift toward securities/loans while preserving liquidity and fee-income diversification.

Additional Source Coverage

  • Q3 2025 8-K 2.02 earnings press release: Read in full. –
  • Prior quarters’ earnings releases: Read in full for Q2 2025 and Q1 2025. – –
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript: Not found in available documents.
  • Other Q3 2025 press releases: None found beyond the 8-K furnished press release.