CG
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record quarter: net revenue $605.5m (+14% y/y), adjusted EPS $2.67 (+20% y/y), operating margin expanded 340 bps to 61.2% on GAAP and 360 bps to 65.3% on adjusted basis . Derivatives (+15% y/y) and Data Vantage (+12% y/y) led growth; Cash & Spot +14% y/y .
- Estimates beat: Adjusted EPS $2.67 vs S&P Global consensus $2.53*; net revenue $605.5m vs S&P Global revenue consensus $592.4m*; adjusted operating EBITDA $409.0m vs S&P Global EBITDA consensus $386.5m* (see Estimates Context) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Guidance raised/lowered: 2025 organic total net revenue growth raised to “low double-digit to mid-teens”; Data Vantage growth raised to “high single-digit to low double-digit”; adjusted opex lowered to $827–$842m; capex and D&A also lowered; tax-rate guidance reaffirmed .
- Strategic realignment: Begin sale processes for Cboe Australia and Cboe Canada; exit U.S. and European corporate listings; trim costs in ETP listings, Cboe Europe Derivatives, and smaller analytics businesses; expected annualized ~3% revenue reduction but ~8–10% adjusted opex reduction (baseline: 2025 guidance) . Narrative catalyst centers on refocus to core derivatives, expense discipline, and higher-growth adjacencies (retail, data, product innovation) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Options franchise momentum: Options net revenue +19% y/y to $380.8m on total options ADV +26%, with index options ADV +15% and multi‑listed options ADV +31% . “Cboe produced a third consecutive quarter of record net revenue to drive record diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS” — CFO Jill Griebenow .
- Data Vantage durability: Net revenue +12% y/y; nearly 90% of growth driven by new unit and new sales (not pricing) per prepared remarks on the call script .
- Broader raise/lower: Company raised 2025 organic net revenue growth and Data Vantage growth ranges and lowered adjusted opex, D&A (ex-acquired intangibles), and capex — signaling operational leverage and disciplined spend .
What Went Wrong
- Futures softness: Futures net revenue fell 22% y/y on ADV –27% and lower transaction/clearing fees .
- Mix pressure on options RPC: Total options RPC declined 6% y/y as index options represented a lower share of total options volume (mix shift) .
- U.S. equities share/capture: U.S. on-exchange equities market share declined to 9.8% (from 10.9% y/y) amid higher industry off‑exchange share; off-exchange net capture also trended lower vs earlier quarters .
Financial Results
Headline metrics vs prior periods and S&P Global consensus
- Q3 beats: Adjusted EPS beat by ~$0.14 vs $2.53*; Net revenue beat by ~$13.1m vs $592.4m*; Adjusted operating EBITDA beat by ~$22.5m vs $386.5m*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment net revenue (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
KPIs (operating drivers)
Non‑GAAP adjustments in Q3 included: amortization of acquired intangibles ($17.2m), impairment of assets ($4.5m), executive compensation adjustment ($0.6m), wind‑down related costs ($2.5m), and a negative adjustment reflecting investment gains (–$51.0m), among other items .
Guidance Changes
Strategic actions (expected annualized impact vs 2025 guided ranges): ~3% reduction in net revenue and ~8–10% reduction in adjusted opex inclusive of Japan wind‑down .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “This strategic realignment of our business portfolio and human capital ensures Cboe is well positioned to succeed in a dynamic and evolving market and supports our long-term vision to be a global derivatives leader.” — CEO Craig Donohue .
- “Adjusted operating EBITDA of $409 million grew 21% and adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded by 3.8 percentage points to 67.5% versus the third quarter of 2024.” — CFO Jill Griebenow .
- “Nearly 90% of the growth across our market data and access businesses was driven by new unit and new sales as opposed to pricing.” — Prepared remarks (earnings script) .
- On retail expansion: Cboe appointed JJ Kinahan to lead a new vertical focused on event-based trading, prediction markets, crypto derivatives, and tokenized instruments .
Q&A Highlights
- Multi‑listed options competitiveness: Management emphasized deeper focus/investment and key hires to enhance positioning in a highly competitive multi-listed landscape (industry moving toward ~20 exchanges in 2026) .
- Trading hours expansion: Cboe filed to add pre‑open (7:30–9:25 ET) and post‑close (4:00–4:15 ET) U.S. equity options sessions, starting with ~25 large, liquid names — a step toward broader 24x5 access .
- Global footprint: Realignment shifts emphasis toward U.S./Europe with commitment to European leadership; expected financial impact of actions implies divested units around break‑even on profitability (revenue –3%, opex –8–10% run‑rate) .
- New markets: Management outlined building toward prediction markets and digital assets (financial/economic contracts first), with potential inorganic steps to scale .
Estimates Context
- Adjusted EPS: $2.67 actual vs $2.53 S&P Global consensus mean* (beat ~$0.14). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Revenue: Cboe’s reported net revenue (revenue less cost of revenue) was $605.5m; S&P Global Revenue Consensus Mean is $592.4m* for Q3’25, which aligns with the industry practice of modeling Cboe on net revenue, implying a ~$13.1m beat. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actual net revenue from company materials: $605.5m .
- EBITDA: Adjusted operating EBITDA $409.0m vs S&P Global EBITDA Consensus Mean $386.5m* (beat ~$22.5m). Values retrieved from S&P Global. Company actual: $409.0m .
- Note: Cboe also reports Total Revenues ($1,141.7m) and “Revenues less cost of revenues” (Net Revenue, $605.5m); Street models typically compare on Net Revenue for Cboe .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core derivatives engine is accelerating: record options volumes, expanding adjusted margins, and raised organic growth guidance support positive estimate revisions and multiple support .
- Expense discipline as an earnings lever: lowered adjusted opex, D&A, and capex guidance point to continued operating leverage into Q4 and FY25 exit rates .
- Strategic portfolio pruning: exiting/lowering exposure to lower‑return or non-core units (Canada, Australia, Japan, certain listings/derivatives initiatives) should streamline focus and improve profitability mix (~8–10% opex run‑rate reduction) .
- Watch futures: continued weakness in futures ADV offset by stable RPC; recovery or product refresh/launches (e.g., Magnificent 10/continuous futures per Nov releases) could alter trajectory .
- U.S. equities headwinds: lower on‑exchange share and net capture warrant monitoring; initiatives in pre/post trading hours and retail-focused products may help offset over time .
- Data Vantage quality of growth: majority from new units/sales (not price) plus raised growth range enhances durability and visibility of non‑transaction revenues .
- Near‑term catalysts: execution on divestitures, further product launches, potential approval of expanded trading hours, and quarterly volumes/RPC prints (monthly updates) .
Appendix: Primary Sources Read
- 8‑K 2.02 and press release: Q3’25 results and strategic realignment .
- Prior quarters: Q2’25 8‑K/PR ; Q1’25 8‑K/PR .
- Other Q3’25 releases: dividend declaration ($0.72) ; September volumes & RPC guide ; leadership appointments ; retail market expansion hire .
- Earnings call: Prepared remarks (earnings script PDF) and transcript coverage .
Footnote: Asterisked consensus figures are Values retrieved from S&P Global.