Crown - Q4 2025
February 5, 2026
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning and welcome to Crown Holdings Fourth Quarter 2025 conference call. Your lines have been placed on a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.
Kevin Clothier (SVP and CFO)
Thank you, Elle, and good morning. With me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you don't already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncork.com. On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release and in our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K for 2024 and subsequent filings. Earnings in the quarter were $1.31 per share compared to $3.02 per share in the prior year quarter, which included a $2.32 per share gain from the sale of Eviosys. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.74, up 9% compared to $1.59 in the prior year quarter.
Net sales in the quarter were up 8% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting a 3% increase in global beverage can volumes: $189 million from the pass-through of higher raw material costs and $58 million from favorable foreign exchange. Segment income was $420 million in the quarter compared to $428 million in the prior year, reflecting strong performance in European Beverage, offset by lower volumes in Transit Packaging. For the year, the company delivered record adjusted EBITDA of almost $2.1 billion compared to the prior year record of $1.9 billion in 2024. The improvement was driven by strong commercial and operational performance across the beverage and tinplate businesses. The company generated record free cash flow of $1,146 million in 2025 compared to the prior year record of $814 million in 2024. The $332 million improvement was largely driven by the 8% improvement in EBITDA and lower pension contributions.
The company maintained its net leverage target of 2.5 times, which we achieved at the end of September of 2025, and that is down from 2.7 times at the end of 2024. We delivered on our commitment to return excess cash to shareholders, with $191 million of shares repurchased in the fourth quarter. For the year, the company returned $625 million to shareholders, consisting of $505 million in share repurchases and $120 million in dividends, compared to a total of $336 million in 2024. Looking ahead, we remain committed to compounding earnings, investing in the business, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and returning excess cash to shareholders. For the quarter excuse me, first quarter 2026, adjusted earnings per diluted share are projected to be in the range of $1.70-$1.80, with a full-year range projected to be $7.90-$8.30 per share.
The adjusted earnings guidance for the full year includes net interest expense of approximately $350 million-$360 million, depending on the timing of share repurchases, exchange rates at the current levels, with the euro at 1.17 to the dollar, full-year tax rate of approximately 25%, depreciation of approximately $330 million, non-controlling interest expense of approximately $140 million, while dividends to non-controlling interest are expected to be $110 million. We currently estimate 2026 full-year free cash flow to be approximately $900 million after $550 million of capital spending to support our growth objectives, including capacity expansions and facility upgrades in Brazil, Greece, and Spain. We expect to maintain our net leverage at our target level of approximately 2.5x. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everyone. As reflected in last night's earnings release and as Kevin just summarized, the company delivered another solid quarter to complete an outstanding year. The company performed well across virtually every metric, generating more than 20% earnings per share growth while also achieving our long-term leverage target of 2.5 times. Fourth quarter, global beverage can unit volumes were up 3%, helping to deliver level global beverage segment income against a very strong prior year fourth quarter. Operationally, the teams performed very well to minimize the impacts from tariffs and the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Volumes in Americas Beverage were up a bit more than 1% in the quarter, as North American gains of 2.5% were offset by a 3% decline in Brazil. For the full year, volumes in North America were flat, while Brazil was down 3%.
Compared to a very strong prior year, the segment delivered record income of over $1 billion on the back of exceptional operating performance and positive mix. When adjusted for the pass-through of higher aluminum costs, margins were within 30 basis points of last year's fourth quarter. As we look ahead to 2026, we expect North American volume gains of 2%-3%, but offset by inflation and startup costs. European beverage volumes increased 10% in the fourth quarter, with shipments remaining strong across the Mediterranean and the Gulf States. For the full year, volumes were also up 10%, generating record segment income, more than double what it was only a few years ago. With the can continuing to win share, we expect further growth in volumes and income in 2026, more than offsetting startup costs in Greece and Spain.
Sales unit volumes across our Asian operations were down 3% in the fourth quarter, owing entirely to the border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand. While consumer purchasing power across the region remains subdued in the face of ongoing tariff concerns, we expect that our low-cost regional structure will allow for commercial adjustments to drive volume growth in 2026. As expected, income across transit packaging was down in line with lower industrial activity. Plastic and steel strap volumes held up well, while higher margin equipment and tool offerings continue to be impacted by ongoing tariff adjustments. Despite overall industrial softness and tariff headwinds, the transit business continues to generate significant cash flow, while at the same time continuing to earn double-digit to low teens margins. With the focus cost reductions and operational improvements made over the past several years, the business is well-positioned for future income growth when industrial demand returns.
Our North American tin plate businesses benefited from 5% food can volume growth, offsetting softness and steel aerosols during the fourth quarter. For the year, income in other was up 80% against an easy prior year comp and supported by food can volume growth and improved operating performance across newly installed capacity. In 2026, we expect further gains, largely driven by strong food can demand and increased can-making equipment orders. With net leverage at our long-term target of 2.5 times, we remain focused on responsibly investing to support our partners' needs to grow their businesses, and we also remain committed to paying a dividend that grows over time and returning the capital to shareholders through disciplined share repurchases. So, you know, in summary, 2025 was another year of improvement for the company. Margins across our businesses remain healthy and demonstrate our ongoing focus on earning appropriate returns on capital employed.
With a strong balance sheet and substantial free cash generation, the company remains well-positioned to consistently deliver value to shareholders. With that, Elle, we are now ready to take questions. Okay. Maybe we're the only ones here. Peace and harmony.
Kevin Clothier (SVP and CFO)
Elle, we're ready to take questions.
Operator (participant)
Apologies for that. I was on mute. Participants, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star and then the number one. Please unmute your phone and record your name clearly when prompted. Your name and company name, and request to introduce your question. To cancel your request, please press star and then the number two. Our first question will be coming from George Staphos. Your line is open.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
Thanks very much. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details.
Kevin Clothier (SVP and CFO)
Good morning, George.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
Congratulations on the progress. A free cash flow, aside from being a record for you all, was, I think one of the, the strongest free cash flows we've seen in the sector, you know, maybe top five over the last 10 years. So congratulations on that. I, I guess first thing that we had for America's EBIT for the outlook for this year, Tim, you said, if I heard you correctly, North America is gonna grow 2%-3%. And then you mentioned it would be offset by inflation and startup costs for 2026. So in total, should we expect, America's EBIT to be flattish, up a little, down a little versus 2025? In our view, it would be relatively flat, but wanna hear what your thoughts are there.
And then, second question that I might have a follow-on: did you mention specifically what you expect European volume to be growing at this year based on your intelligence at this juncture? If you had that and could share it, we'd take that.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Okay. I'll, I'll take them in order, George. So I think, you know, America's beverage, we, we expect income in the segment, currently to be down a touch. And that'll just be the ongoing inflationary impacts from labor, tariffs, what have you, combined with some startup cost in Brazil for the new line in Brazil, offsetting, the volume gains that we mentioned that we see in North America, 2%-3%.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
Mm-hmm.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
European beverage, to your question, we did not give you a forecast for volume growth. I'm, I'm hesitant. You know, we had 10% in 2025. I, you know, if you wanna pencil in 4%-5%, let's start there. And, we'll see how the year progresses. But, but things look very strong in Europe right now, as you're hearing in the marketplace, not only from us but from others. And, we'll see how the year progresses. But we're very bullish on Europe.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
Okay. I appreciate that, Tim. If we think specifically about North America and Europe, and, you know, whenever you talk about end-market questions, a lot of times it winds up being all of the above. Are there particular end-markets, though, or events you think will help to drive the volume? You know, World Cup, you know, America's 250 was mentioned on another call. You know, what do you think will be an important driver of the volume growth you see in both regions in 2026? And if you could summarize sort of what's happening.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Well, I think.
Kevin Clothier (SVP and CFO)
Starting with Europe, you know, Europe doesn't have the beer problem that we seem to have in North America. So we continue to see beer growth in cans, conversion from glass to cans. And we do see, to the extent there is new filling capacity installed, it's more likely being can filling capacity installed as opposed to plastic filling. So when you look at all the other products, soft drinks and other, we see the substrate shift continuing to accelerate can demand across Europe. And so, you know, that would be, you know, the answer to your question, almost all products. In the United States, again, what we're looking at is energy being very strong. We're not a big player in energy, but where we do participate in energy, our customers are doing well.
Flavored alcohols, doing exceptionally well, and sparkling water doing well, with carbonated soft drinks appearing to hold their own, in cans. And, you know, at some point, beer is going to return to flat or growth. So, again, not very big market for us in North America. But when it does, you know, we're actually quite big in beer in Canada. I shouldn't say that. But Canada doesn't have the same problems as the U.S. So, again, spread across numerous products and or end-markets. But to your point, I don't know if America250 really drives much. But certainly, the World Cup will, especially as it's based in the United States, and there's so much focus globally on the U.S. anyway. And, being in the same hemisphere as South America and Mexico, I think we look forward to that as well.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
Got it. My last one, I'll turn over. You know, again, free cash flow is a record. Next this year, obviously, you've called out. Understandably, maybe down a bit. As we look forward, do you think you can grow free cash flow in line? You know, maybe pick the middle of the two ranges, call it $1 billion between what you did last year and what you'll do this year in guidance. Do you think you can grow from that level in line with volume? Or do you think we've more or less reached kind of a plateau because the growth that you'll see in volume will require investment spending? How should we think about your ability to get free cash flow to the bottom line, given the volume growth that you see in the sector? Thanks and good luck in the quarter.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thank you, George. I think, Kevin staring at me, I think that what Kevin would tell us is that $1 billion seems like a reasonable and sustainable free cash flow number as we look to the future with a moderately reduced capital number. You know, we're looking at $550 million. But if we think about $450 million-$500 million on an ongoing basis that supports fairly good growth opportunities into the future, that $1 billion is not unreasonable.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
You should be able to grow off that level then if, if you hold the CapEx where it is and you get the volume growth, so.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yes.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
Thank you, guys. I'll turn over.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thanks, George.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Philip Ng of Jefferies. Your line is open.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Hey, guys. Congrats on another strong quarter. Tim, it was helpful to give us some perspective that perhaps this year you're seeing some startup costs around Brazil and, I guess, some timing nuances around inflation. But when we look at the 2027 and beyond, appreciating you generate record margins, should we expect operating leverage in this business? How should we think about that going forward, especially with some of these costs winding down perhaps in 2027?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. Listen, I think, I think one thing we've done really well over the last six, seven years is convert new capacity into margins that you would expect or even margins that were beyond your expectations. I think our focus has been on trying to earn returns on capital that we employ. We, we don't necessarily need to have every account to feel good about ourselves. We're not looking just to fill factories up. We're not looking to just be big. We're looking to be profitable. And I think we've, we've managed to do that well over the last several years. You know, the whole issue about leverage, it's a nice term. I always, I'm curious what it means when we hear the term. But you know, our goal is to continually generate more income.
I, you know, as you as you know, Phil, that sometimes percentage margins are a little bit misleading from one year to the next only because of the pass-through of raw materials. And you should expect, as long as aluminum stays elevated for percentage margins, to contract a bit, because of the denominator effect. But, you know, the goal is to generate more absolute margin and more cash flow as we go forward. And, and I don't see any reason why, if we look out over the next five years compared to the last five years, we shouldn't be as similarly successful as we were over the last five years.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Okay. Great color, Tim. In terms of Brazil, a little softer in 2025. You know, one of your competitors talking about perhaps some destocking in the channel to start the year. Help us think through what you're seeing on the ground from a Brazil standpoint. Certainly, some excitement around the World Cup, but also in the uneven macro environment. Are you seeing any trade-down into, like, refillable glass like we've seen in past cycles?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Well, there has been less consumption combined with a move back towards large 600 ml bottles that are shareable among people when they're out. Listen, the economy in Brazil is. The, I shouldn't say the economy. That's probably. I don't know enough to say that. But we do know the consumer is a little weaker than we would like. Now, having said that, and you've heard us say this over time, we don't get overly concerned from one quarter to the next or even one year to the next in Brazil. It's. It's another market that's been exceptionally robust for the can industry. I think we've all done exceptionally well. And as we look at any 3-5-year period, you know, at the end of that 3-5-year period, do you believe you're gonna be in a better place than you were 3 or 5 years ago?
We believe, yes. So I don't, you know, I know your focus is your focus is on trying to forecast immediate and then maybe 18 months out. And we have a longer focus than that. But we still remain very positive on Brazil. And, you know, it'll come back. And it is a market where the can is really well-positioned across beer. We continue to see that doing well.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
I may have missed it, Tim. Did you give us your outlook for 2026 for Brazil from a growth standpoint?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Did not. I think it's probably a bit too early to say that. But let's, you know, if you wanted, it's early, but if you wanted to use 3%, you could use 3% for the industry and for Crown.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
Okay. Helpful. Thank you.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
We'll see how the market develops.
George Staphos (Managing Director)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Ghansham Panjabi of Baird. Your line is open.
Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah. Thanks, Javier. Good morning, everybody. I guess, you know, going back to the North American beverage outlook of 2%-3% volume growth 2026, for you specifically, is that also your assumption for industry growth for the year? And then just related to that, where are you on capacity utilization in North America relative to, you know, the bit of growth that the industry saw last year or at least over the last couple of years? Just curious as to where you stand on capacity.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
So I, you know, I think Ghansham, the market in 2025 probably up 2%-3%, maybe 2.5%. I think as we look to 2026, again, it feels like the market should be up 2%-3%. I think capacity in the industry is, is tight. I know we are tight. You know, notwithstanding, perhaps, there is some capacity coming online. I still think that with the growth we see, you know, 2% growth on a 120 billion-can market is 2.5 billion cans. That's a can plant with two lines at full operating speed. So it should absorb any new capacity coming online. So I expect the market's gonna remain tight.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Okay. Thank you for that. And then, you know, as it relates to CapEx, I mean, you know, 2023, roughly $800 million CapEx. Last two years, half of that, you know, let's say roughly $400 million. And we're targeting $550 million for 2026. Is this the new baseline as it relates to how you think about the future? You know, this year, obviously, you're, you're spending money in Europe and Latin America. Will that morph into the U.S., 2027 onwards? And then just, you know, I would love to hear your thoughts as it relates to the affordability of the can as well, right? Obviously, aluminum's up significantly. Plastic prices have done very little, if not go down. And so the divergence between the two, you know, how, how does that affect your thoughts as it relates to the, let's say, the competitiveness of the can?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. I wouldn't, I think, read too much into the $550 this year. I think we have a situation in Europe where we need capacity. We need capacity to service customers in the Mediterranean, Greece, Spain. We have a pretty strong position there. We're oversold in the region. It's, we just have to, you know, the Greek, the Greece project is, we're on site with a Greek plant where we're gonna remove two old, slower lines and put two high-speed lines in. We pick up a fair amount of capacity. We'll put another line into the plant in northern Spain. That's basically to service markets where we're oversold, you know. Do we have other opportunities that we're looking at? Sure. We'll see how they manifest.
But to your question about North America, I don't see you know, never say never. But as we sit here today, I don't see any need for new capacity for Crown in North America over the next year or two. The affordability of the can, you know, from production through delivery to the consumer, it still should be the cheapest and most effective way for our customers to deliver product to the consumer. Now, having said that, the aluminum is up a lot. You know, I can't you know, you can't make heads or tails over what's going to happen with tariffs long-term and certainly the punishment that we're putting on some of our trading partners, specifically Canada as it relates to aluminum and the need for primary aluminum to come out of Canada.
We have not enough primary production in the U.S., if any. So, like a lot of things in, in the new world, Ghansham, when we're talking about sustainability, we're forcing the cost of sustainability onto consumers. And we'll see how long consumers and retailers wanna stay in line with their sustainability goals. And or are they just checking the box? And are they gonna, you know, go back towards products that are less sustainable? But, but I think right now, we don't we're not overly concerned as we look at volumes for 2026 and 2027 as it relates to the cost of aluminum. Demand appears to be very firm.
Philip Ng (Managing Director)
Okay. Thanks for that.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Matt Roberts, Raymond James. Your line is open.
Matt Roberts (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, Tim, Kevin, Tom. Good morning.
Tom Kelly (COO)
Morning.
Matt Roberts (Equity Research Analyst)
Morning. Firstly, what level of buybacks are assumed in the guide? And I know you have incremental CapEx but still strong free cash flow generation. So is there any preference in leaning towards M&A, maybe in cans or otherwise if there were, hypothetically speaking, any transformational opportunities out there?
Kevin Clothier (SVP and CFO)
All right. So, Matt, in terms of what we baked into the guide, cash flow's $900 million. Assume dividends to shareholders and minority partners are, you know, $200 million, a little less than $250 million. So they give $650 million. We've assumed we would buy $650 million of stock, some each quarter, leaving us room to be opportunistic if we, you know, see a buying opportunity.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Matt, on the second part of the question, I think the goal of every management team should be to improve its company, its, its portfolio of businesses. Now, having said that, and at the risk of insulting analysts, investors, and our other cohorts in the packaging space, we do not see any opportunities across packaging that would meaningfully improve Crown as a company. Therefore, our best use of our cash is investing in ourselves by returning cash to shareholders in the form of share buybacks.
Matt Roberts (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you, Tim and Kevin. I appreciate the color there. Maybe for my follow-up on a qualitative basis, also at risk of insulting others in packaging, we've certainly seen other peers have had abrupt management changes of late. Your operations and stock performance certainly don't seem indicative of that. But in light of that, how do you think of succession planning or perhaps going against the grain of changes we've seen in packaging C-suites of late? Thank you for taking the questions.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
You know, I think one thing that helps an organization do well is stability. We've had, at Crown, like all companies, our ups and downs over decades. I have the privilege and the good fortune to lead an exceptional group of professionals at Crown. I think I'm only the fourth CEO in the last 70 years. I think that stability says a lot about the organization and the culture we have at Crown. We do have a number of internal candidates when the board decides they're tired of me. And we have a number of highly trained and experienced professionals in the can industry that are certainly prepared and ready to lead this organization going forward. But I think stability is very important. And I think we've been very fortunate at Crown to have stability for so many years.
Matt Roberts (Equity Research Analyst)
Appreciate the thoughtful color again. Thank you, Jim.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Chris Parkinson of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Chris Parkinson (Senior Research Analyst)
Thank you. So just a pretty quick question, on Asia, just filling out the geographic landscape here. You know, you've improved your cost position pretty dramatically in terms of your asset base there. And yet, there have been competitive changes, you know, challenges in Indonesia, you know, skirmishes in Thailand and Laos. Just, you know, as it stands today, you know, how do you assess the growth of that market? And, Tim, understanding it's not gonna be the next month or two, I'm not asking you to call that. But just when you think about that market, you know, over the next two years or so versus how you used to think about it, in terms of, like, the ultimate profitability potential, what would the update be there? Thank you.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. Chris, I don't want to be flippant, but we can get growth anytime we want it. We just go into the market and make commercial adjustments. We can get all the growth we want. It's a constant evaluation as to what sort of commercial adjustments are necessary to get growth. And do those adjustments in growth improve the business long-term? It could be short-term pain or not. But do they improve the business long-term or not? And so that's a constant evaluation we do. But there's plenty of growth available in the Asian market. We do have a very low-cost structure across Asia. I think, you know, most of the companies we compete with in Asia are private companies and/or companies that don't publicly report.
But I would venture to say that our margin profile in Asia is the envy and therefore the target of many other Asian companies. Having said that, we are very large, well-positioned, and low-cost. So, we can flex commercial flex commercially to, to grow business. And, and we'll look to do a little of that this year in Asia.
Chris Parkinson (Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. Just, you know, drilling down a little bit more in Europe, you know, is the growth that you mentioned you're bullish and kind of, I guess, were penciling in at least, you know, that mid-single-digit, 5-ish % growth rate. When you take a step back and look at, you know, southern Europe versus the U.K. versus northern Europe, are there any material differences in terms of, you know, the growth rate in terms of how it's hitting your business? Or is it essentially the same growth rate in all subregions across the board? Thank you.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Well, there are some markets we're not in. For example, we're not in Scandinavia. We have one plant in eastern Europe. We're not very big in eastern Europe. And we're not in Benelux. So I can't really comment, you know, so much on the growth rates in those markets. I can tell you that we do know that margins are different in those regions. Specifically, in those regions, they're different from Scandinavia to Benelux, etc. And they're different from southern Europe and into the Gulf States. But you've heard us from time to time in the past talk about tourism as it affects our business since we're so strong in southern Europe. We had a very good year this year. And we foresee another very strong year across southern Europe and into the Gulf States in 2026.
But, you know, regionally, we're set up a little differently than the competition. But, having said that, the entire market is doing well. And we expect everybody to do well across Europe.
Chris Parkinson (Senior Research Analyst)
Thank you so much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Mike Roxland of Truist Securities. Your line is open.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Thank you, Tim, Kevin, Tom, for taking my questions. Tim, can you just talk about what you've seen thus far in terms of demand, in January and early read on February?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Well, I think everything, everything as we expected. I think perhaps, the weather may have impacted some shipments. Tractor-trailers don't do real well on icy highways. But February has started off, looks like it's more than fully recovering any shortfalls that were in January. So, as expected.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Got it. So maybe January a little bit weaker due to weather, things out of your control. But February doing better. Did you recover any of that lost volume in January in this month thus far?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. I think that's what I just said. I think February more than recovering.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Okay.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
January.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Got it. Got it. Thank you for that, Tim. And then just on, on food can demand, obviously, I think you called out 5% food can growth, in the quarter. What are you expecting for 2026? Do you expect to grow above the market? Are you gaining share in food cans? Any color you can provide around that. Thank you.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
I think that our customer set and specifically our wet pet food gives us an opportunity to grow a touch above market. I think really, we and only one other company produce pet food cans in any size for the market. So, we and the one other company are the beneficiaries of pet food growth and pet food certainly growing more than human food in cans.
Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Thank you.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question will be coming from Stefan Diaz of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Stefan Diaz (VP of Equity Research)
Hi, Tim. Hi, Kevin. Congrats on good 2025 results. Maybe just to begin, for the investments in Brazil, Greece, and Spain, I guess, how is that ramp going so far? And then as we think about 2026, you know, what type of volume pull-through should we expect from these investments? Or does incremental volumes from the investments really show up more in 2027?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Oh, these are mostly 2027. These, the startups won't happen till the back half of the year. So, little this year, some startup costs as we do training and other things, recruiting people second quarter, third quarter, into the fourth quarter, and most of the volume next year.
Stefan Diaz (VP of Equity Research)
Okay. Great. Makes a lot of sense. And then, it wasn't too long ago that, you know, investors were sort of worried about overcapacity and, you know, potential price pressures in North America. You know, one of your competitors signaled that they were pretty much tapped out of capacity in the region. You know, you came out today saying that you don't think you need to put more capacity in North America over the next 1-2 years. I guess, number one, how do you see utilization rates in the region? And then two, does Crown have capacity to potentially, you know, pick up some business if, you know, demand is a little better than forecasted? Thanks.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. Listen, I think we don't see any need to put any capacity. And, you know, we have a playbook that we're operating with that we wanna generate a lot of cash flow. We think there's a great return opportunity there if we generate a lot of cash flow. That implies keeping capital at reasonable levels. We have opportunities in other markets perhaps that generate better and quicker returns right now than North America. And it does not appear that we need to put any capacity in North America. We have a little bit of open capacity, not that much. We certainly couldn't take a sizable customer on. And, you know, the opportunities elsewhere give us better opportunities. So, having said that, you know, utilization is tight. It doesn't mean others won't put capacity in. But we don't need to. We don't need to chase it.
I think we're happy with the statement we made that we don't see the need for Crown to put any capacity over the next couple of years into North America.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Josh Spector of UBS. Your line is open.
Anojja Shah (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi. Good morning. It's Anojja Shah sitting in for Josh. I just wanted to.
Joshua Spector (Analyst)
Good morning.
Anojja Shah (Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning. I just wanted to go back to Europe for a while. Can you give us a little more detail on what you're doing in Spain and what's driving that kind of growth? 'Cause if I recall correctly, I think you in the last five years, you've added capacity to three different plants there. And maybe you can ballpark the current can-per-capita rate there versus, say, the U.K. just so we get a sense of how much runway there is.
Joshua Spector (Analyst)
I'm looking at that.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
We'll see if Tom can come up with a per-capita can rate. You know, Spain if Spain's not the largest can-made market in, in Europe, it's probably the second-largest can market in Europe after the U.K. So we, I think probably seven maybe seven years ago, we, we built a plant in Valencia, a, a new high-speed two-line plant. The plant in Agoncillo, in the north of Spain in the Bilbao region, that we're adding the line to now used to be a steel can plant, two-line steel can plant, lower, slower, older lines. We, we ripped the steel lines out. We put a new aluminum line in. And now, we're doubling the plant. We also make ends in that facility. And then in Seville, we have a, a two-line aluminum plant as well. So, yeah, a lot of a lot of capital put into the market.
It's a market that we enjoy pretty good relationships with two very large, global customers. You know, part of what makes our success is their success. We continue to support their success by investing.
Anojja Shah (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then for my follow-up, Mexico recently raised the sugar beverage tax quite significantly, I think, starting this year. Can you remind us? I know a lot of your portfolio there is beer. But can you remind us what your soft drink exposure is there and what impact you expect this to have this year on your volumes?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. I think that the majority of our business there is beer, soft drinks for us on the order of 10%-15%, the balance mainly being beer.
Anojja Shah (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Great. Thanks. I'll turn it over.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question will be coming from Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Hope you guys are well. Congrats on a successful 2025. I guess first off, in North America, you know, you discussed the strength in energy, your position there. You said CSD is kinda holding its own. Beer will come back, and you know, there's also some commentary in Canada that you offered. I guess we've been hearing that one of your large CSD customers is interested in regaining some share. So I guess maybe you can just comment on your position with your customers in North America. Do you feel like you're well-positioned in CSD? Are you hearing any commentary from your customers about promotions and increasing those promotions to drive volume? A couple of years ago, they were really focused on price.
You know, I'm just curious with the rising aluminum prices and Midwest Premium if now they're starting to get worried about this demand holding up and if they would require greater promotions to really continue to drive that demand in that 2%-3% range. Thanks.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. Listen, I think you're going to if you watch the Super Bowl this weekend, you're gonna see two really slick commercials. I don't know how many times they're each gonna run them. But one of the major beer companies and one of the major soft drink companies are gonna run some really, really slick commercials that are really well done. And the one in the case of the soft drink company, it focuses and showcases the can as the package in the commercial. So clearly, they spent some time. And I gotta, you know, I'm not an advertising executive. But I gotta tell you, these two commercials are exceptionally well done. And I'm gonna assume the consumers are gonna receive them very well. And hopefully, that kickstarts even more can consumption as we go through the rest of the year.
Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. And then I guess, like, I'll ask on transit as well 'cause we haven't talked that much about it. But, what's the outlook there? I mean, obviously, very macro-driven. But, you know, is there anything else that you guys can do? You've taken out a lot of cost. But, you know, is there consolidation? Or is there anything else in the market that you think could be interesting from, and could drive a, you know, maybe a little bit better volume outlook for transit? Thanks.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Well, again, you know, we can drive volume any way we want. We can go cut price. We can make bolt-on acquisitions. We can do a lot of things. What we've chosen to do in this business is have this business generate as much cash flow as it can for the organization in excess of $250 million a year, with very little resources being given to this business. Now, if we're gonna have an honest conversation about our transit business, our transit business generates margins even in a down cycle that are in excess of many of these other so-called high-value packaging franchises that you guys all write about.
So if we wanna have an honest conversation about valuation and where this business sits in relation to other packaging companies, this business is, in our view, performing exactly as we need it to do, very little resources being given to it generating exceptional cash.
Joshua Spector (Analyst)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
I don't mean to hit you with that, Arun. That wasn't directed at you. That was just a general comment.
Joshua Spector (Analyst)
No worries. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Anthony Pettinari of Citi. Your line is open.
Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)
Good morning. It's sorry if I missed this. But is it possible to put a finer point on the dollar impact of the startup costs in Brazil, Greece, and Spain? And then in terms, I guess, in terms of timing, I think you said those projects or the costs would be sort of second-half weighted. Just wondering if you can confirm that.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Projects second-half weighted. Most of the startup costs second-half weighted. We'll start to hire and train people in Q2. So there is some cost there, not numbers we typically call out, just telling you that they're there. It's part of doing business. If you wanna grow your business, get used to it. It's just a part of the cost. We're not a number we ever put too fine a point on. You can calculate this number a variety of different ways. There are costs that are there. It's a cost of doing business in a growing environment.
Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)
And then I'm switching to Asia. I, I think you indicated that, that, that Thailand-Cambodia conflict was basically responsible for—I don't know if you said all of the shortfall or, or the majority of the shortfall. And I'm wondering if you can just provide any additional detail on that. And then in terms of sort of the state of play in terms of, you know, that issue impacting volumes, like right now, where are we? And do you maybe at some point lap that? Because I, I think the conflict sort of started last year and then sort of stopped. I, I'm just wondering if you can put any finer point on that.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. We'll lap that sometime in the third quarter. It's just a land dispute, one side arguing that they own 15 miles of border that the other side says they own. You know, I don't know enough about it. And certainly, it's inappropriate for me to comment on what two governments are discussing. But it was responsible for more than our shortfall, especially in the Thai business.
Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)
Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Silke Kueck of J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Silke Kueck (Research Analyst)
Hi. Good morning. I'm sitting in for Jeff this morning. In Europe, with the expansion that you're doing, so it's like a, you know, 1 billion cans coming on in Greece and, like, a, you know, maybe, like, 1 billion cans from, like, the line in Spain. And your base capacity is maybe 15 or 16 billion. So is there, like, a world where you're, based on, like, the capacity that you're bringing, your growth in Europe, is higher than 4-5, like, maybe more like high single digits? Or that's too optimistic?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Yeah. I think I caught what you said. I think our base capacity in Europe is probably bigger than the number you quoted if I heard you quote 16. But, listen, I think the capacity we're bringing online the installation, happens this year. But the through learning curve, you don't get the full run rate of that capacity for, you know, 18-30 months. So, as you think about adding 5%-6% capacity to a portfolio or a footprint, you're really looking you don't really need to fill it out immediately 'cause you don't produce that immediately. It gets produced over, it gets grown into over 18-30 months.
Silke Kueck (Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
All right. Our last question will be coming from Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho Securities. Your line is open.
Edlain Rodriguez (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you. Good morning. I mean, just one quick one, Tim. So when you look at the portfolio right now, you know, if you're looking at the industry fundamentals, both beverage can, and, you know, transit, like, what are and where do you see the most opportunities and challenges?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Well, I, I think that, you know, the biggest challenge anybody has, we've done exceptionally well in the industry for the last five or six years. And I think the challenge for all of our managers as they lead the businesses is to not get complacent, is to keep pushing forward, and to do better. So that's number one. I think number two, trying to find the right balance between supporting our customers' growth objectives and ensuring that what we have to do to support their growth objectives returns fair value to us. And as an industry, we've done a little better over the last five or six years with that. I still think there's more we can do to return more value to our company and our shareholders, in line with supporting our customers' growth objectives.
Certainly, we do see beverage cans growing globally. The intersection between growth and increasing profits is always one we look for. So we're constantly focused on that as opposed to just trying to get bigger. I do believe that, ultimately, these industrial markets are going to return. We get some clarity on tariffs. So if we can just stop changing what we say about tariffs if we just had whatever they're going to be, if they just would be what they're going to be, and they don't change every day, then I think, you know, companies and purchasing managers across the industrial space could have a little bit more confidence in where they're going.
Having said that, when that does happen, we do see significant upside to the transit profitability profile just given the amount of cost we've taken out over the last several years.
Edlain Rodriguez (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Okay. Great. And one last one, capital allocation. You know, stock is not too far from its all-time high, I believe. Like, is share buyback still a good use of capital, in your view?
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Well, I think Kevin and his team will use a disciplined approach when and how we choose to buy back shares. You know, depending on where interest rates go, you can make the argument that you wanna continue to pay down debt. I think one of the challenges with paying down debt is it's really hard to make adequate returns when your leverage is too low. So, you know, 2.5 is a nice place to be. It feels like a sweet spot to be with leverage to generate as best return as you can. And, we'll be intelligent as we use the cash flow that we generate when we're buying back shares.
Edlain Rodriguez (Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Tim Donahue (Chairman, President and CEO)
Thank you, Edlain. So, Elle, I think you said that was our last question. So, we thank everybody for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you again in a few months. Bye now.
Operator (participant)
That concludes today's conference. Thank you, everyone, for participating. Give me another second.