Global Cost Curve Outlook
Q: What's your latest view on the global cost curve?
A: Management expects significant challenges for European production facilities, with utilization rates remaining low and some permanent closures likely. Additionally, challenges in Trinidad, Asia, and Latin America are expected. Combined with insufficient new production to meet traditional growth, they foresee a tightening of the supply and demand balance, providing a constructive backdrop for their North American production network.

Q1 Production Issues and Recovery
Q: How are operations recovering after Q1 production issues?
A: The first quarter faced significant outages due to weather and downtime, leading to less ammonia production and higher maintenance expenses. However, the plants are back to normal operations with utilization rates at historical levels, and the production and distribution assets are performing well.

Clean Ammonia Investments
Q: How does ammonia pricing affect clean ammonia investments?
A: While near-term ammonia market pricing is a starting point, investment decisions for clean ammonia projects consider projections four years ahead when production commences. Management expects the supply and demand balance to tighten due to challenges in existing production and insufficient new capacity, supporting their investment plans.

Capital Expenditure for New Projects
Q: What are the expected capital expenditures for new plants?
A: A new steam methane reformer plant is estimated at $2.5 billion, plus approximately $500 million for scalable infrastructure. Depending on partnership structures, CF Industries' share could be around $1 billion to $1.5 billion, spread over four to five years.

Partnering on Clean Ammonia Projects
Q: Are you consolidating partnerships on clean ammonia projects?
A: Initially, projects with Mitsui and JERA were separate due to different technologies, but management hopes to combine partners into a single project to aggregate demand and optimize investments. All partners are participating in ongoing FEED studies to determine the best technology and economics.

Russian Nitrogen Supply Impact
Q: How does Russian supply affect nitrogen markets?
A: The situation is complex, with some countries refusing Russian products while others, like the U.S. and Europe, continue to import them. Surprising to management, the U.S. remains open to Russian urea and UAN imports, effectively funding the Russian war effort—a situation they find "absolutely shocking".

Waggaman Plant Performance
Q: How is the Waggaman plant performing post-acquisition?
A: Integration has gone remarkably well, with the plant operating at rates above nameplate capacity after completing a turnaround. Management is pleased with the acquisition's value and the plant's contribution to the portfolio.

China and India Supply Dynamics
Q: How do China and India affect nitrogen pricing?
A: China's export controls and logistical challenges may limit exports to less than the projected 4 million tons, less than 10% of the globally traded urea market. India's reduced imports, due to increased internal supply, are offset by growing demand in countries like Brazil.

Spring Demand and Pricing Trends
Q: What's the outlook for spring nitrogen demand and pricing?
A: The UAN season is just beginning, with strong soil moisture supporting demand. Lower nitrogen prices are expected to incentivize additional demand, and management anticipates that pricing will remain around current levels in the second quarter.

Green Ammonia Plant and Customers
Q: Have you secured contracts for your green ammonia plant?
A: With a small annual production of about 20,000 tons, the volume isn't sufficient for large-scale applications like co-firing in Japan. However, they are in discussions with European companies interested in the low-carbon attributes and exploring options to supply decarbonized products for specialized markets.