CF Industries Holdings (CF) Company Report

2025 supply shocks drove U.S. urea prices to nearly $500/MT in June before moderating to $360/MT by year-end amid restored Chinese exports and stable Indian demand, leaving the market balanced yet tight entering 2026.
Despite compressed farmer margins, strong yields and crop insurance revenue guarantees helped maintain cash flow; U.S. corn acreage is forecast down from 98 m to 92–93 m, a modest 5–6 m acre “speed bump” mitigated by increased wheat and phosphate applications.
Channel inventories are only 30–50% pre-bought for spring compared with a normal 70%, indicating low retail and producer stocks and significant spring catch-up buying potential.
Global unplanned outages—including Ma’aden (Saudi Arabia), Trinidad gas constraints, Europe’s high gas costs, and Brazil plant shutdowns—tightened supply; resuming Black Sea exports post-Ukraine conflict remains uncertain given port and pipeline damage.
CF plans continued investment in existing assets and decarbonization projects (e.g., Donaldsonville CCS, Blue Point) and will return excess cash via share buybacks, having repurchased 19% of shares under the last authorization and over 50% since 2010.

16 hours ago

Transcript

CF Industries discusses 2025 performance and 2026 outlook at Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference

New Projects/Investments

Share Buyback

2025 was marked by global supply constraints—including a Middle East war, Iranian weather disruptions and high European gas costs—that drove U.S. urea prices to nearly $500/ton in June before moderating to around $360/MT entering 2026.
Despite tighter farmer revenues versus 2022–23, strong crop insurance guarantees and higher-than-trend yields in dryland areas supported cash flow; CF notes a healthy fall ammonia application season and expects corn acres to moderate from 98 M to ~92–93 M in 2026, with demand for nitrogen remaining robust as other crops and catch-up spring applications offset reduced corn acres.
India’s import program surprised positively, with tenders of 1–2 Mt each driving total nitrogen imports toward 7–9 Mt in 2025 and another tender expected in January, reflecting continued import reliance amid challenged domestic production.
CF is advancing its low-carbon ammonia strategy—anchored by the Blue Point project (online 2029)—and has secured offtake agreements with European CBAM–focused chemical and fertilizer customers, Asia partners JERA and Mitsui, and Morocco for the first low-carbon ammonia cargoes.
Capital allocation will balance high-return asset investments (e.g., Waggaman expansion, Donaldsonville CCS) with shareholder returns: CF repurchased 19% of shares under its last authorization and has bought back over half its shares since 2010.

17 hours ago

Transcript

CF Industries issues $1B 5.300% Senior Notes due 2035

Debt Issuance

Completed $1,000,000,000 5.300% Senior Notes due 2035, fully and unconditionally guaranteed by CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Notes issued under indenture dated November 6, 2025, supplemented by a First Supplemental Indenture on November 26, 2025, including covenants on liens, sale-leasebacks and merger conditions.
Offering underwritten by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, BMO Capital Markets Corp. and Citigroup Global Markets Inc. pursuant to an underwriting agreement dated November 20, 2025.

Nov 26, 2025, 9:15 PM

8-K

CF Industries reports Q3 2025 results

Earnings

Share Buyback

New Projects/Investments

CF Industries posted Q3 net earnings of $353 million ($2.19 per diluted share) and adjusted EBITDA of $670 million, bringing first nine months adjusted EBITDA to $2.1 billion and net earnings to $1.1 billion ($6.39 per share).
Ammonia utilization was 97% for the first nine months, and the company maintains full-year gross ammonia production guidance of ~10 million tons.
Since October 2020, CF has cut GHG emissions intensity by 25% through plant closures, new efficient plants, N₂O abatement, and carbon capture; it now sells low-carbon ammonia at a $20–$25/ton premium.
Returned $445 million to shareholders in Q3 and $1.3 billion in the first nine months via dividends and buybacks; completed repurchase of 37.6 million shares under the 2022 program and launched a $2 billion 2025 buyback with $1.8 billion cash on hand.
Advanced strategic projects: Verdigris nitric acid abatement (reducing >600,000 tCO₂e/year), Donaldsonville CCS unit generating 45Q tax credits, and Bluepoint ultra-low emissions ammonia moving toward site construction in 2026.

Nov 6, 2025, 4:00 PM

Transcript

CF Industries reports Q3 2025 earnings and updates capital allocation

Earnings

Share Buyback

New Projects/Investments

CF Industries delivered Q3 net earnings of $353 million (or $2.19/share) and adjusted EBITDA of $670 million, bringing 9M 2025 net earnings to $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $2.1 billion.
Operationally, ammonia utilization reached 97% in the first nine months of 2025, and CF still expects to produce ~10 million tons of gross ammonia for the full year.
Achieved a 25% reduction in GHG emissions intensity since 2020 via plant closures, new efficient plants, N₂O abatement, and CO₂ sequestration (2 million t/yr), and is selling low-carbon ammonia at a premium.
Capital expenditures are now projected at $575 million for 2025 (excluding Bluepoint development); CF returned $445 million to shareholders in Q3 and repurchased 37.6 million shares (19%) under its 2022 program, with a new $2 billion authorization active.

Nov 6, 2025, 4:00 PM

Transcript

CF Industries reports Q3 2025 earnings results

Earnings

Guidance Update

Share Buyback

CF reported Q3 2025 net sales of $1.659 B and net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $353 M ($2.19 EPS), up from $1.370 B and $276 M ($1.55 EPS) in Q3 2024.
Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $667 M, versus $511 M in Q3 2024, driven by higher selling prices and volumes.
The company generated $1.699 B of free cash flow in the trailing-12 months ended Q3 2025 and returned approximately $1.3 B to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 9M 2025.
CF expects CF-funded capital expenditures of $725 M (including $150 M at Blue Point) and gross ammonia production of 10 M tons in full-year 2025.

Nov 6, 2025, 4:00 PM

Presentation

CF Industries reports Q3 2025 results

Earnings

Share Buyback

New Projects/Investments

Reported net earnings of $353 million (Q3) or $2.19 per diluted share; YTD net income $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA $670 million; trailing-12-month free cash flow of $1.7 billion with 65% conversion from EBITDA.
Returned $445 million to shareholders in Q3 and $1.3 billion YTD; completed 2022 repurchase with 37.6 million shares (19% of start) and launched a $2 billion 2025 buyback, holding $1.8 billion cash on hand.
Achieved 97% ammonia utilization through nine months; full-year production expected at ~10 million tons; global nitrogen supply-demand remains tight with strong pricing outlook into 2026.
Reduced GHG intensity by 25% since 2020 via plant closures, new efficient units, CO₂ CCS at Donaldsonville and N₂O abatement at Verdigris, generating tax credits and premiums; advancing Bluepoint ultra-low emissions plant and Yazoo CCS project.
Increased 2025 network capex guidance to ~$575 million for maintenance and strategic initiatives; expect CCS and abatement projects to contribute $150–200 million annual free cash flow by decade-end.

Nov 6, 2025, 4:00 PM

Transcript

CF Industries reports Q3 2025 results

Earnings

Guidance Update

CF posted Q3 net sales of $1.66 B, a 38.1% gross margin, and net earnings of $353 M (EPS $2.19) in Q3 2025.
Q3 adjusted EBITDA increased to $667 M, up from $511 M in Q3 2024, driven by higher selling prices and volumes, partially offset by rising natural gas costs.
Through 9M 2025, CF returned ~$1.3 B to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends, completing a $3 B buyback program and initiating a new $2 B authorization.
2025 guidance includes CF-funded capital expenditures of ~$725 M (including ~$150 M for the Blue Point JV) and expected gross ammonia production of ~10 M tons.

Nov 5, 2025, 10:14 PM

8-K

CF Industries reports Q3 and nine months 2025 earnings

Earnings

Share Buyback

New Projects/Investments

First nine months 2025 net earnings of $1.05 billion ($6.39 per share) and adjusted EBITDA of $2.07 billion; third quarter net earnings of $353 million ($2.19 per share) and adjusted EBITDA of $667 million.
Trailing twelve-month net cash from operating activities of $2.63 billion and free cash flow of $1.70 billion.
Completed the $3 billion share repurchase program and commenced a new $2 billion program in October after repurchasing 4.3 million shares for $364 million in Q3.
Began sales of premium low-carbon ammonia in September to customers in Africa and Europe at a price premium to conventional ammonia.
Finished a nitric acid plant abatement project at Verdigris, OK, expected to cut CO₂-e emissions by over 600,000 metric tons annually.

Nov 5, 2025, 9:50 PM

8-K

CF Industries ships certified low-carbon ammonia to Europe

Product Launch

New Projects/Investments

CF Industries loaded 23,500 metric tons of VACI-certified low-carbon ammonia at Donaldsonville, Louisiana for Trafigura, destined for Antwerp on September 25, 2025.
The shipment is CF’s first low-carbon premium offering to Europe, enabled by its Donaldsonville CO₂ capture project to lower ammonia’s carbon intensity.
Trafigura will deliver the cargo to Envalior, which intends to use the ammonia in producing low-carbon caprolactam.

Oct 2, 2025, 8:30 PM

Press Release

Earnings Transcripts

Quarterly earnings call transcripts for CF Industries Holdings.

Ask Fintool AI Agent

Get instant answers from SEC filings, earnings calls & more

What did W. Anthony Will say about margins?What are CF Industries Holdings's strategic priorities?How is CF Industries Holdings positioned vs competitors?How did CF Industries Holdings do last quarter?

Let Fintool AI Agent track CF Industries Holdings's earnings for you

Get instant analysis when filings drop