Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong Financial Performance and Positive Outlook: Confluent achieved its first non-GAAP profitable year in fiscal year 2024, with subscription revenue growing 26% to $922.1 million , and non-GAAP operating margin improving 10 percentage points to 2.9%. For fiscal year 2025, the company provided guidance ahead of expectations, projecting subscription revenue growth of approximately 21% to 22% to reach $1.117 billion to $1.121 billion , and expecting non-GAAP operating margin to improve to approximately 6%.
- Significant Strategic Partnerships Driving Growth: Confluent announced a major expansion of its strategic partnership with Databricks , integrating Confluent's data streaming platform with Databricks's data intelligence platform to empower real-time data for AI-driven decision making. Additionally, the company entered a multiyear strategic partnership with Jio Platforms Limited, expected to accelerate India's development of GenAI and next-generation applications. These partnerships extend Confluent's reach and present new growth opportunities.
- Successful Go-to-Market Transformation and Product Innovation: The transition to a consumption-based selling model has led to increased efficiency, with sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue improving by approximately 6 percentage points in 2024. The expansion of product offerings, including WarpStream and Tableflow, has helped penetrate new accounts, particularly in the large-scale digital native segment. Confluent's win rate against cloud service provider offerings and smaller start-ups remained well above 90% , and the company grew its $1 million-plus ARR customers by 23% to 194 customers , demonstrating strong market positioning and customer expansion.
- Net Revenue Retention Rate (NRR) has stabilized at 117% and has not increased, indicating that the anticipated boost in net expansion rates from go-to-market changes has not yet materialized.
- Fiscal year 2025 guidance indicates growth rates consistent with 2024, suggesting that despite investments in new products and strategies, growth is not accelerating as expected.
- Revenue contribution from new partnerships like Jio Platforms and Databricks is expected to be not material in the near term, implying limited immediate impact on revenue growth from these initiatives.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | +22.5% (from $213.18M to $261.22M) | **Total Revenue increased by $48.04M due to revenue growth from expanded customer acquisition and higher subscription sales that built on the previous period's base. ** |
Operating Income (EBIT) | Shifted from +$84.68M to –$105.78M (declined by ~$190M) | **Despite higher revenue, Operating Income deteriorated dramatically as increased SG&A and R&D expenses, along with higher depreciation costs, overwhelmed operating efficiencies seen in the previous period. ** |
Net Income | Reversed from +$94.10M to –$88.05M | **Net Income moved from a strong positive result to a significant loss due to escalating operating costs and expense pressures that counterbalanced the revenue growth improvements from the prior period. ** |
Earnings Per Share (Basic) | Shifted from $0.30 to –$0.27 | **EPS declined by $0.57 as deteriorating net income and increased operating losses translated into negative earnings per share, reflecting the adverse cost impact compared to the previous quarter’s positive figure. ** |
Depreciation & Amortization | Increased by ~59% (from $3.92M to $6.23M) | **Depreciation and Amortization surged due to higher capitalized internal-use software and increased property & equipment costs, building upon previous period investments that now incur greater non-cash charges. ** |
SG&A Expenses | Increased by ~20% (from $153.86M to $184.55M) | **SG&A expenses rose driven by increased personnel costs, higher marketing and administrative spending—including overhead and acquisition-related expenses—further straining margins compared to Q4 2023. ** |
R&D Expenses | Grew by ~32% (from $86.95M to $114.89M) | **R&D spending increased significantly due to an accelerated investment in innovation, with higher headcount, greater stock-based compensation, and additional acquisition-related costs, reinforcing growth ambitions from the earlier period. ** |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Subscription Revenue (Quarterly) | Q1 2025 | Expected to be in the range of $245M to $246M, ~21% growth | Expected to be in the range of $253M to $254M, ~22% to 23% growth | raised |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (Quarterly) | Q1 2025 | Approximately 2% | Approximately 3% | raised |
Non-GAAP Net Income per Diluted Share (Quarterly) | Q1 2025 | $0.05 | $0.06 to $0.07 | raised |
Subscription Revenue (Annual) | FY 2025 | Expected to be in the range of $916.5M to $917.5M, ~26% growth | Expected to be in the range of $1.117B to $1.121B, ~21% to 22% growth | raised |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (Annual) | FY 2025 | Approximately 2% | Approximately 6% | raised |
Non-GAAP Net Income per Diluted Share (Annual) | FY 2025 | $0.25 | $0.35 | raised |
Free Cash Flow Margin (Annual) | FY 2025 | Between 0% to 1% | Approximately 6% | raised |
Cloud Subscription Revenue Mix (Annual) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Expected to see ~1 point of increase each quarter, with a Q4 '25 exit at ~59% to 60% | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Financial Performance and Revenue Guidance | Q1, Q2, and Q3 discussions emphasized strong subscription revenue growth, improving operating and free cash flow margins, and clear revenue guidance targets ( in Q1, in Q2, in Q3). | Q4 highlights record subscription revenue, further margin improvements that exceeded guidance, and robust net income figures ( ). | Consistent strength and an upward shift in profitability metrics, reflecting bullish sentiment on performance as margin expansion builds on earlier robust growth. |
Consumption Transformation | Q1 launched the shift toward a consumption-based model ( ), Q2 detailed a near-complete rollout with pricing adjustments and accelerated customer acquisition ( ), and Q3 focused on landing high-quality customers to drive consumption ( ). | Q4 emphasizes the successful transformation with high-velocity customer expansion, refined sales incentives (e.g., tracking DSP components) and a strong pipeline ( ). | Maturing from an early rollout to demonstrated operational success, this initiative is increasingly seen as driving durable, efficient growth. |
Product Innovation and DSP Growth | Q1 introduced early-stage innovations like Flink and Table Flow ( ), Q2 underlined the expansion of platform capabilities and managed connectors ( ), and Q3 heralded a record level of product innovation with new offerings and acquisition of WarpStream ( ). | Q4 showcases a robust expansion with over 200 new features across DSP components, integrated product offerings (e.g., Tableflow GA) and strategic positioning of DSP as a major contributor to cloud revenue ( ). | Evolving from early experiments to a core revenue driver, product innovation is becoming even more integral to the company’s strategic positioning and future growth. |
Strategic Partnerships Expansion | Not mentioned in Q1, Q2 or Q3 calls. | Q4 introduces major expanded partnerships with Databricks and Jio Platforms to integrate real‐time data solutions and support AI-driven applications ( ). | A new and potentially transformative topic that expands market reach and strengthens the ecosystem, possibly having a large impact on future growth. |
Customer Growth, Retention, and Digital Native Segments | Q1 reported the largest sequential customer growth and strong high-value account expansion ( ); Q2 noted solid multiproduct adoption with some digital native volatility ( ); Q3 highlighted stabilized digital native consumption and robust retention metrics ( ). | Q4 reports significant overall customer growth (840 new customers), a strong NRR of 117%, and continued traction among digital native companies ( ). | Consistent robust growth with improving retention, while the digital native segment is recovering and increasingly adopting the platform, which further supports long‑term expansion. |
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) Trends | Q1 showed NRR targets between 120% to 125% with higher multiproduct retention ( ); Q2 noted NRR around 118% with some volatility ( ); Q3 reported a stable 117% NRR with minor declines ( ). | Q4 maintains an NRR of 117% combined with a gross retention rate above 90% ( ). | Steady performance across periods, with slight short-term dips but overall stability and expectation for improvement as consumption and multiproduct adoption drive retention upward. |
Generative AI Initiatives | Q1 introduced early Gen AI use cases through digital native projects ( ); Q2 provided detailed customer case studies exemplifying Gen AI impact ( ); Q3 hosted AI Day and launched an accelerator program, alongside deeper integration with OpenAI ( ). | Q4 expands on Gen AI with multiple AI-related projects, enhanced strategic partnerships (notably with Databricks) for real‑time AI decision-making, and streamlining of AI use cases across industries ( ). | Growing prominence and sophistication of Gen AI initiatives, building momentum from early case studies to strategic partnerships that could significantly boost future growth. |
Reduced Emphasis on Traditional Revenue Metrics | Q1 discussions already highlighted a shift away from RPO/CRPO in favor of consumption and subscription revenue measures ( ); no mention in Q2 and Q3. | Q4 continues this approach with the CFO noting that deferred revenue metrics aren’t the best indicators under the consumption model ( ). | A consistent strategic repositioning away from traditional revenue metrics towards consumption-based indicators, reinforcing a modern approach to measuring growth and performance. |
Early-Stage Strategic Initiatives | Q1 mentioned early-stage initiatives for System Integrators and Kafka Migration aimed at structured customer migration and channel expansion ( ); this topic was not mentioned in later quarters. | Q4 does not reference these initiatives. | The disappearance suggests a de‑emphasis or integration of these early-stage initiatives into broader strategies, potentially indicating maturation or deprioritization in public communications. |
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2025 Guidance & Growth Drivers
Q: What are you assuming with the initial guide for 2025?
A: Confluent is guiding for subscription revenue growth above consensus, underpinned by cloud business growth greater than 30%. Key drivers include adoption of DSP products, new offerings like Tableflow and WarpStream, and partnerships with Databricks and Jio. -
Confidence in Growth Trends
Q: What gives you confidence that growth trends will continue?
A: Confluent sees both qualitative and quantitative evidence, including massive open-source adoption of products like Connect and Flink, and increased customer demand for managed cloud offerings. They track consumption growth and have a strong pipeline. -
AI Use Cases for Streaming
Q: What are you seeing in terms of GenAI-related use cases for streaming and DSP technology?
A: Initially, customers used real-time ETL to get data for AI applications. Now, they're applying language models directly on streaming data to automate tasks and improve efficiency, which requires real-time data and makes Confluent's streaming technology particularly relevant. -
Databricks Partnership
Q: How does the partnership with Databricks benefit customers?
A: The partnership integrates Confluent's streaming data with Databricks' Delta format and Unity catalog, enabling real-time data availability for analytics and AI applications. This unifies streaming data across operational and analytics ecosystems. -
Go-to-Market Adjustments
Q: What adjustments are you making to the go-to-market model for 2025?
A: After last year's major transformations, this year involves minor tune-ups. Confluent is focusing on supporting use cases that consume DSP and integrating into analytics realms, such as the partnership with Databricks. -
Flink Progress
Q: Can you update us on Flink's progress and plans to drive momentum?
A: Confluent is pleased with Flink's progress, seeing significant maturity in the product and broad-based adoption. They remain equally bullish as they were last year. -
DSP Mix in Guidance
Q: What's assumed in the 2025 guidance around DSP and Flink mix?
A: DSP consumption grew substantially faster than the overall cloud business in Q4, accounting for approximately 13% of cloud revenue. Confluent expects DSP to be a material growth driver and increase throughout 2025. -
Sales Compensation Model Satisfaction
Q: How satisfied are you with the shift to compensating salespeople through consumption?
A: Confluent feels better aligned with how customers buy and track workloads. They view this as a growth driver over time and necessary to align with peers and new offerings. -
Growth of $1 Million Customers
Q: What's driving the growth of $1 million customers?
A: Efforts to accelerate customers from initial use case to large-scale platform adoption are paying off. DSP functionality, services, and partnerships help customers reach larger scale more quickly. The $100,000+ ARR customer cohort now contributes approximately 90% of subscription revenue. -
Market Environment and Trends
Q: How would you characterize Q4's market environment and consumption trends?
A: Confluent saw stability in the market and strong results. There's more certainty in budgets and spending, and they expect this stability to continue into 2025. -
Replacing Traditional Data Integration Vendors
Q: Are you winning more deals replacing traditional data integration vendors?
A: Yes, Confluent is increasingly displacing legacy integration technologies. With more complete products and out-of-the-box connectors, they can directly replace commercial batch workloads with better scalability and real-time capabilities. -
Stream Processing Market Outlook
Q: Does data gravity trends give you confidence that stream processing will be a bigger market over time?
A: Yes, Confluent believes it's a phenomenal setup for streaming. They feel they're in the very early innings, with a lot more growth ahead as workloads move into operational, continuous processing. -
Sales Productivity and Capacity
Q: Are you assuming higher sales productivity levels this year?
A: Confluent improved sales and marketing efficiency by roughly 6 percentage points in 2024. They have the capacity onboard to deliver on 2025 plans and will continue focusing on efficiency. -
WarpStream and Sales Cycles
Q: Could offering more deployment options like WarpStream lengthen sales cycles?
A: It's not a significant concern. Having excellent TCO and deployment stories for each option is essential, and Confluent feels very good about their full portfolio. -
Deferred Revenue Changes
Q: Why did long-term deferred revenue increase by $2 million sequentially?
A: There's not much to read into it. Changes in deferred revenue are driven by the timing of large multiyear Confluent Platform deals, and their consumption-first cloud approach doesn't emphasize large commits. -
Vertical Strength in AI Projects
Q: Are you seeing any particular vertical strength in AI-related projects?
A: Confluent has done well with dedicated AI companies and AI projects within existing industries. Customers like OpenAI and Cursor represent fast-growing clients excited to work with Confluent.