Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered solid operating momentum: Distributable Earnings (DE) were $368M and $0.96 per share, with Fee Related Earnings (FRE) at $312M and a 48% margin; record firm AUM reached $474B, and organic inflows were $17B .
Mix shift continues toward Credit and AlpInvest: ~55% of firm-wide FRE now comes from Global Credit and Carlyle AlpInvest, up from ~25% five years ago; AlpInvest AUM reached $102B and Credit AUM hit $208B .
Management reiterated confidence in exceeding updated 2025 targets (FRE growth ~10% and inflows ~$50B set last quarter), citing strong inflow pipelines across Credit, AlpInvest, and Global Wealth .
Capital management remained active: $800M 10-year notes issued at 5% and ~$200M of share repurchases in Q3; quarterly dividend of $0.35 declared .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Continued scaling of secular growth areas: “We delivered FRE of $312 million…Record AUM of $474 billion…Organic inflows of $17 billion” (CEO) .
Secondaries leadership and innovation: closed $20B secondaries fund; executed a $1.25B publicly rated GP-led collateralized fund obligation (largest of its kind) (CEO) .
Wealth momentum accelerating: evergreen wealth inflows reached $3B in the quarter, “our best fundraising quarter in global wealth ever” (CEO) .

What Went Wrong

A lighter realizations quarter in GPE: Management acknowledged Q3 realizations were soft, expecting a significant step-up in Q4 and sizable signed pipeline ($4–$5B) to close mostly in Q4, some in Q1 (CFO) .
Fee rate in Credit looked “a little bit light” due to mix/timing (insurance transactions skewing averages), despite strong flows; management emphasized breadth of momentum across products (Incoming CFO) .
Public holdings volatility impacted marks in certain franchises (e.g., CAP, U.S. CPE7 names), though teams cited recovery and strong underlying operating metrics (CFO) .

Financial Results

Core KPIs (quarterly)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Distributable Earnings ($USD Millions)	$455.4	$431.0	$368.0
DE per Share ($USD)	$1.14	$0.91	$0.96
Fee Related Earnings ($USD Millions)	$310.6	$323.3	$312.0
FRE Margin %	48%	48%	48%
Total AUM ($USD Billions)	$453	$465	$474
Organic Inflows ($USD Billions)	$14.2	$13.4	$17.0

Segment AUM (quarterly)

Segment AUM ($USD Billions)	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Global Private Equity	$164	$165	N/A
Global Credit	$199	$203	$208
Carlyle AlpInvest	$89	$97	$102

Selected Business KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Accrued Performance Revenues ($USD Billions)	$2.688	$2.866	N/A
Evergreen Capital ($USD Billions)	$26 AUM (FEAUM)	$101 Perpetual FEAUM	$32 evergreen capital
Wealth Inflows ($USD Billions)	N/A	N/A	$3.0
ABF (Asset-Backed Finance) Inflows ($USD Billions)	N/A	N/A	$2.0
CLO Inflows ($USD Billions)	N/A	N/A	>$3.0
Insurance Solutions – Unum reinsurance close	Announced pipeline	Closed July 1 (Unum)	Momentum continues

S&P Global Consensus vs. Reported

Metric	Q3 2025 Consensus	Q3 2025 Actual	Surprise
EPS ($USD)	$1.02*	$0.96*	-$0.06 (-5.8%)*
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$979.9*	$125.6*	-$854.3 (-87.2%)*

Values with asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global. Note: S&P Global “Revenue” definitions may differ from Carlyle’s consolidated GAAP revenue, which includes significant investment and fund consolidation effects; use caution when comparing directly to company-reported GAAP totals .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
FRE Growth	FY 2025	~10% (raised from 6% in Q2)	Management “confident about exceeding” updated targets	Raised/Confidence maintained
Inflows	FY 2025	~$50B (raised from ~$40B in Q2)	Management “confident about exceeding” updated targets; YTD ~$45B by Q3 call	Raised/Confidence maintained
Dividend per Share	Quarterly	$0.35	$0.35 declared in Q3	Maintained
Capital Management	Near term	$1.4B authorization; $0.6B remaining as of Q2	Issued $800M 10-year notes at 5%; ~$200M share repurchases in Q3	Ongoing execution

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Global Wealth/Retirement access	CAPM up ~6x YoY; UBS partnership exclusive internationally; strategy of three flagship vehicles (CTAC, CAPM, CPEP)	$3B wealth inflows; evergreen capital $32B; Oracle Red Bull partnership to boost brand reach	Accelerating
AlpInvest Secondaries & Solutions	Record fee growth; latest secondaries fund significantly larger than predecessor; CAPM growth and UBS channel	Closed $20B secondaries fund; launched $1.25B GP-led CFO; credit secondaries continuation vehicle $550M	Scaling rapidly
Insurance Solutions (Fortitude Re)	Closed $4B reinsurance; strong pipeline; active in Japan; expected more in H2	Unum deal closed July 1; funding agreement-backed note; Asia-sidecar launch; >$20B AUM potential intermediate term	Robust pipeline
Capital Markets Fees	Seven quarters of YoY growth; high-quality, capital-light fees; potential >$300M in active cycle	Activity levered; “muscle memory” building; broader fee capture across vintages and businesses	Structurally higher
Private Equity Realizations	$8.6B realized proceeds in Q1; ~$4B realized in Q2; signed ~$4–$5B pending	Q3 lighter; expect “significant step up” in Q4; Medline IPO filed; majority of $4–$5B closes in Q4, some Q1	Near-term ramp
Macro/policy backdrop	Tariff/macro caution, but deployment/LP engagement resilient	Resilient economy; credit events idiosyncratic; M&A +40% YoY; IPOs +60% YTD	Improving activity

Management Commentary

“We delivered FRE of $312 million…Record AUM of $474 billion…Organic inflows of $17 billion” (CEO) .
“We generated $368 million of distributable earnings, or $0.96 per share…FRE margins remain strong at 48%” (Incoming CFO) .
“Our momentum in global wealth remains strong…we’re running at 10x the level vs when I first joined” (CEO) .
“We issued $800 million of 10-year notes at 5%…repurchased over $200 million of stock in the quarter” (Incoming CFO) .
“We feel confident about exceeding the financial targets we updated last quarter” (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

Inflows outlook: Diversification across Credit and AlpInvest driving momentum; YTD flows around $45B; confidence in revised ~$50B FY target .
Realizations pipeline: ~$4–$5B signed, most expected to close in Q4; Medline IPO filed; activity rising across U.S. and Europe buyout .
Credit mix/fee rate: Fee rate variability tied to insurance transaction mix/timing; broad-based strength in CLOs, ABF, direct lending, and wealth channels .
Capital allocation: Priority on organic growth investments first; continued buybacks given perceived undervaluation; selective inorganic optionality .
2026 momentum: Multiple growth tributaries (insurance, wealth, credit, capital markets); CPEP to be in market; broader platform leverage .

Estimates Context

EPS missed S&P Global consensus: $0.96 actual vs $1.02 estimate (approx -6%); limited miss magnitude amid strong FRE/AUM growth. Adjustments to Street models likely modest, reflecting realizations timing rather than core fee engine pressure (*S&P Global).
Revenue vs consensus showed a large miss using S&P’s definition ($125.6M actual vs $979.9M estimate), which may reflect definitional differences versus Carlyle’s consolidated GAAP revenue. We recommend anchoring earnings quality on FRE/DE metrics and segment fee revenues rather than headline GAAP revenue for comparability in alternative asset managers (*S&P Global).

Key Takeaways for Investors

FRE durability: 48% margin and ~$312M quarterly FRE underline scalable, capital-light earnings; momentum in Credit/AlpInvest supports multi-year compounding .
Near-term realization catalysts: ~$4–$5B signed exits and Medline IPO should lift realized performance revenues in Q4/Q1, a potential stock catalyst .
Wealth flywheel: $3B quarterly inflows and $32B evergreen capital signal broad retail uptake; brand partnerships add distribution leverage .
Insurance platform optionality: Fortitude Re pipeline and Asia expansion plus ABF demand broaden fee baseload and credit origination content .
Capital markets fee runway: High-quality, balance-sheet-light fees scale with activity; potential to exceed prior cycle peaks over time .
Risk monitor: Public holdings volatility and fee-rate mix effects (insurance) can skew quarterlies; focus on multi-quarter trend and pipeline conversion .
2026 setup: Management tone constructive; diversified growth tributaries and capital markets reopening support estimate upward bias over the medium term .

References:

Q3 2025 earnings call transcript:
Q3 2025 8-K and press release (dividend, exhibits):
Q2 2025 8-K/presentation (financials, segment KPIs):
Q1 2025 8-K/presentation (financials, segment KPIs):
Other Q3 press release: CCIF preferred offering/redemption:

S&P Global Disclaimer: Values marked with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.