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    Charter Communications Inc (CHTR)

    Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$382.34Last close (Feb 1, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$344.99Open (Feb 2, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-37.35(-9.77%)
    • Charter is achieving higher-than-expected penetration rates in its rural expansion projects, reaching close to 50% penetration at the 12-month mark, ahead of initial projections, indicating strong demand and attractive returns on investment.
    • The company is strategically investing in significant network upgrades and expansions, including the largest broadband expansion since the 1980s, expected to drive long-term free cash flow growth and shareholder value.
    • Charter expects strong EBITDA growth in 2024 by efficiently managing costs, keeping cost to serve flat, and finding efficiencies without impacting service levels, with additional tailwinds expected from political advertising.
    • Competitive pressures from fixed wireless access and wireline overbuilders are leading to slower net internet customer growth, with Charter losing 61,000 Internet customers in the fourth quarter, driven by increased competition and aggressive promotions from competitors. ,
    • Flat revenue per customer relationship, with residential revenue per customer relationship up only 0.1% year-over-year, due to inability to raise prices significantly amid competitive pressures, impacting ARPU growth and revenue prospects. ,
    • Increased capital expenditures and delayed network evolution project may impact free cash flow, with 2024 capital expenditures expected to be between $12.2 billion and $12.4 billion, and the network evolution initiative completion pushed to 2026, affecting long-term cash flow implications. , ,
    1. CapEx Guidance and Investment Priorities
      Q: Why guide CapEx out to 2027 instead of shorter term?
      A: Chris explained they provided multiyear CapEx guidance to show investors the size and returns of their commitments, given unique investment opportunities like subsidized rural builds, which are generational. While they typically prefer shorter-term guidance, they wanted to demonstrate the value of their long-term investments so shareholders understand the benefits. The delay in DAA equipment certification also pushed out the timing of network upgrades.

    2. EBITDA Growth Outlook for 2024
      Q: What can you tell us about EBITDA growth in 2024?
      A: Jessica didn't provide specific EBITDA guidance but mentioned factors supporting growth. They expect political advertising to be a tailwind, have fully lapped employee investments, aim to keep cost to serve essentially flat, and anticipate sales and marketing costs to grow only 2-3%. They're identifying efficiencies across the business to maintain strong EBITDA growth.

    3. Competitive Dynamics and Fixed Wireless Impact
      Q: Has fixed wireless competition affected your growth?
      A: Chris noted continued expansion of fixed wireless and aggressive promotions from competitors in Q4, impacting gross adds and churn, especially on the gross adds front, leading to outsized changes in net adds. They're improving short-term go-to-market strategies without overreacting. Jessica added that the environment wasn't consistent through the quarter due to factors like the Disney dispute, and net adds remained slightly negative in December and consistent into January.

    4. ARPU Trends and Pricing Power
      Q: How will ARPU progress in 2024, has pricing power changed?
      A: Jessica said average revenue per customer is flat mainly due to declining video penetration, but Internet ARPU continues to grow, even slightly higher than historical levels. Chris affirmed their long-term strategy of keeping prices low to enhance growth and reduce churn but acknowledged passing through inflationary pressures where needed. They see pricing power balanced with competitiveness and the need to recover costs.

    5. Mobile Strategy's Impact on Churn and Growth
      Q: Is mobile reducing churn or driving new subscribers?
      A: Chris stated that mobile significantly reduces churn among customers who adopt it, who are about 13% of their base. While it's unclear if mobile is yet driving new sales, there's opportunity for convergence to boost acquisition over time. The rollout of their own capacity, like CBRS, is paced considering other investments but offers clear returns.

    6. ACP Subscribers and Potential Impact
      Q: How many ACP subscribers do you have, impact if ACP ends?
      A: Jessica said they have a little over 5 million households receiving the ACP benefit, all for wireline Internet. Most ACP customers were already Internet customers before the program began. It's challenging to predict the impact if the program ends, but they'll work hard to keep customers connected and keep stakeholders informed. Chris emphasized their focus on getting ACP refunded and believes there's a strong possibility it could happen.

    7. Penetration Assumptions and BEAD Investments
      Q: How do fixed wireless and satellites affect your penetration outlook and BEAD investments?
      A: Chris explained their penetration assumptions for rural builds were already conservative, but they're achieving about 50% penetration at the 12-month mark, ahead of expectations. Fixed wireless and LEO satellites are factored into their planning but don't significantly change their investment outlook or expectations for terminal penetration.

    8. Cash Tax Guidance with Depreciation Extension
      Q: How much would cash taxes decrease if depreciation is extended?
      A: Jessica stated it's premature to adjust guidance. It's not just bonus depreciation but also R&D and interest expense deductions that will impact them. The reforms being considered support their investment economics, and they expect a material benefit to cash taxes if the legislation passes.

    9. Fiber Overbuild Overlap Update
      Q: What's your current fiber overlap percentage?
      A: Chris said their overbuild percentage is roughly 50%, as disclosed in their 10-K.

    10. CBRS Build-out and Offload Strategy
      Q: What's the update on your CBRS build-out strategy?
      A: Chris noted they are fully deployed with thousands of radio access networks in one large market and expanding to another this year. The CBRS deployment is ROI-based with clear returns. Deployment is paced due to other capital investments, but they plan to fully deploy it as it offers great returns.