Sign in
CG

Cigna Group (CI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered strong topline and non‑GAAP earnings: total revenue $67.18B (+11% y/y) and adjusted EPS $7.20; GAAP EPS $5.71 . Consensus was lower, implying a beat on both revenue and adjusted EPS. Bold beats below.
  • Evernorth Health Services grew adjusted revenues 17% y/y to $57.83B; Specialty & Care Services momentum, GLP‑1 program innovations, and biosimilar adoption were key drivers .
  • Cigna Healthcare results were consistent with expectations amid elevated medical costs; MCR was 83.2% (vs. 82.3% last year), primarily due to higher stop‑loss costs, with pre‑tax margin at 10.2% .
  • 2025 outlook reaffirmed: adjusted EPS ≥$29.60; Evernorth pre‑tax adjusted income ≥$7.2B; Cigna Healthcare pre‑tax adjusted income ≥$4.125B; MCR 83.2%–84.2% . Q1 raised EPS outlook by +$0.10; Q2 maintained prior levels .
  • Near‑term catalysts: continued specialty/biosimilar adoption (e.g., Stelara biosimilar), GLP‑1 affordability expansion ($200 cap program), and mid‑90%+ PBM retention for 2026 selling season .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Specialty and Care Services delivered strong growth; normalized pre‑tax adjusted earnings +12% y/y with increased specialty prescription volume and biosimilar adoption .
  • Pharmacy Benefit Services retention and contract wins; multi‑year extension with Prime Therapeutics, tracking mid‑90%+ 2026 retention .
  • Innovation in GLP‑1s: new benefit caps patient OOP at ≤$200/month via direct manufacturer negotiations, improving affordability and adoption while earning program fees; employer clients benefit from lower net costs .
  • Management reaffirmed full‑year adjusted EPS outlook (≥$29.60) and provided clear quarterly cadence (Q3 slightly above 25% of full‑year), underscoring confidence .
  • Quote: “We delivered $67.2 billion in total revenue and grew adjusted earnings per share to $7.20... disciplined execution and the strength of our business mix” — David Cordani .

What Went Wrong

  • Elevated medical cost trends sustained; Cigna Healthcare MCR rose to 83.2% (vs. 82.3% y/y), driven by expected higher stop‑loss medical costs and ACA individual exchange utilization pressure .
  • PBM margins impacted by client mix (large clients growing faster with lower margin profiles) and drug mix (higher‑priced drugs inflate revenue more than margins) .
  • Working capital timing within Evernorth constrained operating cash flow in Q2; reversal expected in H2 .
  • Individual exchange book running below target margins in 2025; portfolio repositioned (customers down from ~1M in 2023 to <400k) with price increases ~2× industry average in 2024–2025 to prioritize margin over growth .

Financial Results

Consolidated Metrics vs Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$60.52 $65.50 $67.18
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$5.45 $4.85 $5.71
Adjusted EPS ($)$6.72 $6.74 $7.20
Cigna Healthcare MCR (%)82.3% 82.2% 83.2%
SG&A ratio (GAAP)6.1% 6.4% 5.1%
SG&A ratio (Adjusted)6.0% 5.8% 4.9%

Segment Breakdown

Segment MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Evernorth PBS Adjusted Revenues ($B)$26.63 $29.74 $31.95
Evernorth Specialty & Care Adjusted Revenues ($B)$22.92 $23.94 $25.87
Evernorth Total Adjusted Revenues ($B)$49.55 $53.68 $57.83
Evernorth Pre‑Tax Adjusted Income ($B)$1.62 $1.43 $1.70
Evernorth Pre‑Tax Margin (%)3.3% 2.7% 2.9%
Cigna Healthcare Adjusted Revenues ($B)$13.14 $14.48 $10.75
Cigna Healthcare Pre‑Tax Adjusted Income ($B)$1.20 $1.29 $1.09
Cigna Healthcare Pre‑Tax Margin (%)9.2% 8.9% 10.2%

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Net Medical Costs Payable ($B)$5.04 $4.37 $4.49
Weighted Avg Shares (thousands)284,052 272,953 268,154

Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)$62.51*$67.18
Adjusted EPS ($)$7.15*$7.20

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Revenue and Adjusted EPS consensus imply bold beats vs actual.

  • Revenue beat: $4.67B, +7.5% vs consensus (Bold) .
  • Adjusted EPS beat: $0.05 (Bold) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPS (per share)FY 2025At least $29.50 (implied; +$0.10 vs prior) At least $29.60 Raised in Q1; Maintained in Q2
Evernorth Pre‑Tax Adjusted Income ($B)FY 2025≥$7.20 ≥$7.20 Maintained
Cigna Healthcare Pre‑Tax Adjusted Income ($B)FY 2025≥$4.10 (+$0.025B) ≥$4.125 Raised in Q1; Maintained in Q2
Cigna Healthcare MCR (%)FY 202583.2%–84.2% 83.2%–84.2% Maintained
Dividend (Quarterly)Q3 2025 Payable Sep 18$1.51 per share Declared

Additional cadence commentary: Q3 adjusted EPS slightly above 25% of full‑year outlook; Evernorth Q3 slightly above 25% and Cigna Healthcare Q3 slightly below 25%; Q3 MCR toward upper end of full‑year range due to seasonality .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI/DigitalQ1: preview of personalized digital tools; commitment to improve experience Launch of AI‑powered virtual assistant; positive early adoption Advancing adoption
GLP‑1 StrategyQ1: EnCircleRx, Enreach, ENGUIDE rollout; prioritizing affordability and safety New ≤$200/month OOP program via Lilly/Novo deals; contributions in line with expectations Expanding programs, stable economics
Specialty/BiosimilarsQ1: $0 OOP Humira biosimilar, Stelara launch Specialty volumes up; CuraScript growth; early Stelara biosimilar adoption Sustained tailwind
Regulatory/LegalQ1: opposition to Arkansas PBM law, emphasis on transparency/choice Courts put TRO in place; management reiterates affordability/choice concerns Active regulatory engagement
Commercial Cost TrendsQ1: elevated stop‑loss trend; recovery plan through 2026; MCR 82.2% MCR 83.2%; stop‑loss premiums +13% y/y; pricing environment firm Elevated but managed
Selling Season/RetentionQ1: PBM retention mid‑90s expected PBM retention tracking mid‑90%+; national accounts flat/shrinking; select segment net share gains Stable retention; selective growth

Management Commentary

  • “Our performance in the second quarter reflects our disciplined execution and the strength of our business mix” — David Cordani .
  • “Specialty and Care Services demonstrated strong growth... normalized pre‑tax adjusted earnings increased 12% year over year” — Ann Dennison .
  • “We recently finalized a multi‑year contract extension with Prime Therapeutics” — Brian Evanko .
  • “We introduced a new program... maximum out‑of‑pocket cost of no more than $200 per month... win‑win dynamics” — Brian Evanko .

Q&A Highlights

  • GLP‑1 economics and adoption: Client adoption rates broadly flat y/y; new $200 cap program targets employers not covering weight management; program fees contribute within Evernorth .
  • Arkansas PBM law: Management supports transparency and choice; TRO underscores issues of access, continuity, and affordability; continued engagement at state/federal levels .
  • Stop‑loss: Premiums up 13% y/y; margin recovery plan in motion across 2025–2026 with typical retention preserved .
  • PBM margins: Client and drug mix dynamics (larger clients, higher‑priced drugs) pressure margins; growth still robust .
  • Individual exchanges: Portfolio resized (<400k lives) with pricing ~2× industry average to prioritize margin; modest positive risk adjustment offset Q2 ACA utilization pressure .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 consensus (S&P Global): Revenue $62.51B*, Adjusted EPS $7.15*; actual revenue $67.18B and adjusted EPS $7.20 — both beats .
  • Coverage: 15 revenue estimates, 22 EPS estimates for Q2 2025*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Evernorth remains the growth engine; specialty and PBM retention underpin earnings with secular tailwinds in biosimilars and specialty distribution (CuraScript ~$25B, double‑digit growth) .
  • GLP‑1 innovation continues to differentiate CI’s offering and should support net cost reductions and client adoption without materially diluting economics; watch employer uptake at renewals .
  • Cigna Healthcare’s MCR is elevated but within guided range; pricing environment firm for 2026 with expected price increases above 2025 levels, supporting margin recovery in stop‑loss .
  • Cash flow timing in Evernorth impacted Q2; reversal expected in H2 — reduces near‑term risk to capital deployment; dividend declared ($1.51) adds income support .
  • Guidance intact post‑Q2: adjusted EPS ≥$29.60; any upside hinges on specialty outperformance and ACA utilization normalization; Q3 EPS cadence slightly >25% of full‑year .
  • Trading angle: Bold revenue and EPS beats plus reaffirmed FY guide are supportive; monitor regulatory developments (Arkansas/TRO) and GLP‑1 program adoption as next narrative drivers .
  • Medium‑term thesis: Durable services‑based model with diversified growth platforms (Evernorth + Cigna Healthcare) and continued innovation should sustain 10%–14% adjusted EPS CAGR target over strategic horizon .