CG
Cigna Group (CI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered strong topline and non‑GAAP earnings: total revenue $67.18B (+11% y/y) and adjusted EPS $7.20; GAAP EPS $5.71 . Consensus was lower, implying a beat on both revenue and adjusted EPS. Bold beats below.
- Evernorth Health Services grew adjusted revenues 17% y/y to $57.83B; Specialty & Care Services momentum, GLP‑1 program innovations, and biosimilar adoption were key drivers .
- Cigna Healthcare results were consistent with expectations amid elevated medical costs; MCR was 83.2% (vs. 82.3% last year), primarily due to higher stop‑loss costs, with pre‑tax margin at 10.2% .
- 2025 outlook reaffirmed: adjusted EPS ≥$29.60; Evernorth pre‑tax adjusted income ≥$7.2B; Cigna Healthcare pre‑tax adjusted income ≥$4.125B; MCR 83.2%–84.2% . Q1 raised EPS outlook by +$0.10; Q2 maintained prior levels .
- Near‑term catalysts: continued specialty/biosimilar adoption (e.g., Stelara biosimilar), GLP‑1 affordability expansion ($200 cap program), and mid‑90%+ PBM retention for 2026 selling season .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Specialty and Care Services delivered strong growth; normalized pre‑tax adjusted earnings +12% y/y with increased specialty prescription volume and biosimilar adoption .
- Pharmacy Benefit Services retention and contract wins; multi‑year extension with Prime Therapeutics, tracking mid‑90%+ 2026 retention .
- Innovation in GLP‑1s: new benefit caps patient OOP at ≤$200/month via direct manufacturer negotiations, improving affordability and adoption while earning program fees; employer clients benefit from lower net costs .
- Management reaffirmed full‑year adjusted EPS outlook (≥$29.60) and provided clear quarterly cadence (Q3 slightly above 25% of full‑year), underscoring confidence .
- Quote: “We delivered $67.2 billion in total revenue and grew adjusted earnings per share to $7.20... disciplined execution and the strength of our business mix” — David Cordani .
What Went Wrong
- Elevated medical cost trends sustained; Cigna Healthcare MCR rose to 83.2% (vs. 82.3% y/y), driven by expected higher stop‑loss medical costs and ACA individual exchange utilization pressure .
- PBM margins impacted by client mix (large clients growing faster with lower margin profiles) and drug mix (higher‑priced drugs inflate revenue more than margins) .
- Working capital timing within Evernorth constrained operating cash flow in Q2; reversal expected in H2 .
- Individual exchange book running below target margins in 2025; portfolio repositioned (customers down from ~1M in 2023 to <400k) with price increases ~2× industry average in 2024–2025 to prioritize margin over growth .
Financial Results
Consolidated Metrics vs Prior Periods
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: Revenue and Adjusted EPS consensus imply bold beats vs actual.
- Revenue beat: $4.67B, +7.5% vs consensus (Bold) .
- Adjusted EPS beat: $0.05 (Bold) .
Guidance Changes
Additional cadence commentary: Q3 adjusted EPS slightly above 25% of full‑year outlook; Evernorth Q3 slightly above 25% and Cigna Healthcare Q3 slightly below 25%; Q3 MCR toward upper end of full‑year range due to seasonality .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our performance in the second quarter reflects our disciplined execution and the strength of our business mix” — David Cordani .
- “Specialty and Care Services demonstrated strong growth... normalized pre‑tax adjusted earnings increased 12% year over year” — Ann Dennison .
- “We recently finalized a multi‑year contract extension with Prime Therapeutics” — Brian Evanko .
- “We introduced a new program... maximum out‑of‑pocket cost of no more than $200 per month... win‑win dynamics” — Brian Evanko .
Q&A Highlights
- GLP‑1 economics and adoption: Client adoption rates broadly flat y/y; new $200 cap program targets employers not covering weight management; program fees contribute within Evernorth .
- Arkansas PBM law: Management supports transparency and choice; TRO underscores issues of access, continuity, and affordability; continued engagement at state/federal levels .
- Stop‑loss: Premiums up 13% y/y; margin recovery plan in motion across 2025–2026 with typical retention preserved .
- PBM margins: Client and drug mix dynamics (larger clients, higher‑priced drugs) pressure margins; growth still robust .
- Individual exchanges: Portfolio resized (<400k lives) with pricing ~2× industry average to prioritize margin; modest positive risk adjustment offset Q2 ACA utilization pressure .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 consensus (S&P Global): Revenue $62.51B*, Adjusted EPS $7.15*; actual revenue $67.18B and adjusted EPS $7.20 — both beats .
- Coverage: 15 revenue estimates, 22 EPS estimates for Q2 2025*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Evernorth remains the growth engine; specialty and PBM retention underpin earnings with secular tailwinds in biosimilars and specialty distribution (CuraScript ~$25B, double‑digit growth) .
- GLP‑1 innovation continues to differentiate CI’s offering and should support net cost reductions and client adoption without materially diluting economics; watch employer uptake at renewals .
- Cigna Healthcare’s MCR is elevated but within guided range; pricing environment firm for 2026 with expected price increases above 2025 levels, supporting margin recovery in stop‑loss .
- Cash flow timing in Evernorth impacted Q2; reversal expected in H2 — reduces near‑term risk to capital deployment; dividend declared ($1.51) adds income support .
- Guidance intact post‑Q2: adjusted EPS ≥$29.60; any upside hinges on specialty outperformance and ACA utilization normalization; Q3 EPS cadence slightly >25% of full‑year .
- Trading angle: Bold revenue and EPS beats plus reaffirmed FY guide are supportive; monitor regulatory developments (Arkansas/TRO) and GLP‑1 program adoption as next narrative drivers .
- Medium‑term thesis: Durable services‑based model with diversified growth platforms (Evernorth + Cigna Healthcare) and continued innovation should sustain 10%–14% adjusted EPS CAGR target over strategic horizon .