Grupo Cibest (CIB)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Grupo Cibest Q4 2025: Beats Estimates But Stock Falls 4% on Colombia Macro Concerns
February 24, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
Grupo Cibest reported Q4 2025 results that topped estimates on both EPS (+14.6%) and revenue (+1.7%), but shares fell 4.3% during the earnings call as management highlighted significant Colombian macro headwinds — 6.4% inflation forecast, rising rates, tax uncertainty, and upcoming elections .
Headline numbers were distorted by a COP 3.4 trillion ($817M) non-cash impairment charge from the Banistmo divestiture . Excluding this one-off, the Colombian financial group delivered an adjusted ROE of 17.2% including Banistmo contributions, significantly exceeding guidance . The corporate evolution strategy that drove the stock up 104% since October 2024 remains intact — but Q&A discussion revealed near-term headwinds investors hadn't fully priced in .
Did Grupo Cibest Beat Earnings?
Yes — handily on EPS. The company beat both revenue and EPS consensus, with particularly strong EPS performance:
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
The beat was driven by resilient net interest margins (7.0% excluding Banistmo) , improved asset quality with cost of risk at 1.6% , and fee income growth of 10.4% Q/Q .
8-Quarter Beat/Miss History:
*Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Annual vs quarterly estimate mismatches in some periods.
Ask Fintool AI AgentHow Did the Stock React?
CIB shares fell 4.3% on the day of the earnings call (Feb 24, 2026), trading from $80.45 to $77.03, despite the headline beat. The selloff likely reflects:
- Macro concerns raised about Colombian inflation and rising rates
- Tax uncertainty with pending government decrees
- Elevated valuations after the 104% rally since October 2024
Key Price Milestones:
The stock trades at a significant premium to historical levels:
- P/E: 15.0x (vs 5.2x in 2022)
- P/BV: 1.43x (vs 0.83x in 2022)
What Changed From Last Quarter?
1. Banistmo Sale Announced ($1.42B)
The biggest development was the December 18, 2025 announcement to sell 100% of Banistmo to Inversiones Cuscatlán for $1.418 billion :
- Valuation: 17.1x LTM P/E, 1.2x P/BV
- Expected Close: H2 2026
- Impairment Charge: COP 3.4 trillion non-cash goodwill writedown
- Proceeds: All-cash payment at closing
Management emphasized this "did not affect any of the banks' capital ratios nor dividend flows" .
2. Asset Quality Improved
Despite macro headwinds, asset quality metrics continued to improve:
3. Share Buyback Progress
The company has repurchased 8.6 million shares (31.9% of the program) as of Q4 2025 :
What Did Management Guide?
Management provided 2026 guidance that implies continued profitability above 2025 levels:
*Excluding Banistmo for 2026
2026 Net Income Target: COP 7.3 trillion (flat vs 2025 adjusted)
Macro Assumptions Built Into Guidance:
- GDP Growth: ~2.5% (lower than 2025)
- Inflation: 6.4% (up from 5.1% in 2025)
- Central Bank Rate: 11%+ (up from 9.75%)
- Effective Tax Rate: ~35% (including potential extra tax decree)
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat's Driving Digital Growth?
Nequi, the company's digital banking platform, showed exceptional momentum and is becoming a key value driver:
Q4 2025 Highlights:
Nequi 2026 Guidance:
- Users: +5%
- Loans: +50%
- Deposits: +10%
- Total Income: +40%
The digital platform's cost of risk of 13.1% is elevated but manageable given the small ticket size (COP 2.3M average) and 32-month average loan maturity .
Key Nequi Economics (from Q&A):
- Interest rates charged: ~25% (near maximum rate)
- Cost of funds: Near zero (funded by savings accounts)
- Financial margin: "Very high" per management
- Separation timeline: Q3-Q4 2026 — will provide full standalone financials
Key Segment Performance
Bancolombia (Colombia)
The flagship Colombian operation remains the profit engine:
Banco Agrícola (El Salvador)
Strong performance in the dollarized economy:
BAM (Guatemala)
The weakest performer but still profitable:
Capital & Dividend
Capital ratios remain strong with the corporate structure providing flexibility:
Dividend Proposal (announced Feb 24):
- Total Dividend: COP 4.3 trillion (COP 4,512 per share)
- Annual Growth: 14.6% (exceeding inflation by 950+ bps)
- Payout Ratio: 60%
- Payment: Four installments starting April 1
Double leverage at the holding company level is comfortable at 101% .
Q&A Highlights: What Analysts Asked
The earnings call Q&A revealed several investor concerns about macro headwinds and capital allocation:
On Asset Quality & Cost of Risk
Tito Labarta (Goldman Sachs) asked about asset quality risks given elevated inflation and interest rates.
"We are confident that we have the tools to react fast enough to deliver the guidance that we are providing... We've already closed some risk brackets in consumer lending." — Juan Carlos Mora, CEO
Management noted they've already added COP 300 billion in provisions anticipating the 23.7% minimum wage increase impact .
On Tax Uncertainty
Yuri Fernandes (JPMorgan) pressed on the complex tax situation. Key revelations:
- Effective tax rate guidance: ~35% (29% base + COP 650B from potential extra tax decree)
- Constitutional Court suspended some emergency tax measures in February
- New equity tax decree expected "this week"
"Reading taxes at this point in Colombia is very difficult... It's supposed to come out this week." — Juan Carlos Mora, CEO
On Guatemala (BAM) Strategy
Tito Labarta asked if BAM could be divested like Banistmo. Management was emphatic:
"We are committed to continue supporting the operation in Guatemala. We see very good potential in that operation... We are targeting double-digit ROE. It will take some time... we expect full results in 2027." — Juan Carlos Mora, CEO
On Capital Deployment
Andrés Soto (Santander) asked about capital allocation priorities. Management detailed specific plans :
Double leverage limit is 120% vs. current 101% — significant capacity for more .
On Nequi Separation
Management confirmed Nequi will be separated into a standalone entity by Q3-Q4 2026, providing full transparency on the digital bank's financials .
"Nequi is performing very well... Interest rates are close to 25%, cost of funds is very close to zero. The financial margin is very high." — Juan Carlos Mora, CEO
On Political Outlook
Carlos Gomez-Lopez (HSBC) asked about the 5-10 year vision. Congressional elections are March 8, 2026 with three primaries :
- 5 seats from 2016 peace process expiring (were in government coalition)
- Senate likely to have majority opposing current government
- Management "confident electoral process will be conducted smoothly"
On Mandatory Investments
Alonso Aramburú (BTG) asked about rumors of forced bank lending to fund emergency spending. Management confirmed no official decree yet but expects clarity "this week" .
Ask Fintool AI AgentColombian Macro: The Elephant in the Room
The Q4 call revealed significant macro headwinds that explain the post-earnings selloff:
Management's view: Higher rates help NIM (asset-sensitive balance sheet) but increase credit risk — a natural hedge that should allow them to hit guidance .
What to Watch Going Forward
Catalysts:
- Banistmo sale closing (H2 2026) — $1.42B cash proceeds
- Nequi separation (Q3-Q4 2026) — full standalone financials
- Deployment of divestiture proceeds — potential special dividend or buyback acceleration
- BAM turnaround — targeting double-digit ROE by 2027
- Colombian rate cycle — central bank may hike to 12%+
Risks:
- Tax uncertainty — multiple decrees pending, Constitutional Court rulings
- Colombian macro — fiscal deficit 6.3% of GDP, inflation at 5.1%, 23.7% min wage hike
- Political/electoral — Congressional elections March 8, presidential May 2026
- Credit deterioration — management already closed some consumer risk brackets
- Mandatory investments — potential government decree forcing bank lending
Ask Fintool AI AgentBottom Line
Grupo Cibest delivered a solid Q4 2025 operationally — beating estimates on both EPS (+14.6%) and revenue (+1.7%) — but the stock fell 4.3% post-earnings as investors focused on Colombian macro headwinds: 6.4% inflation forecast, rates potentially reaching 12%, tax uncertainty, and the upcoming March 8 elections .
The corporate evolution strategy is working — 104% rally since October 2024, Banistmo divestiture at 17.1x P/E, and Nequi hitting profitability ahead of schedule with separation planned for Q3-Q4 2026 . With 2026 guidance for 18%+ ROE and $1.4B in Banistmo proceeds expected, the company has levers for continued value creation.
Key debates now: Can management navigate Colombian macro volatility while maintaining 18%+ ROE? Will tax decrees materially impact earnings? And how will Banistmo proceeds be deployed — buybacks, dividends, or digital investments?