Clean Energy Fuels - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 revenue was $103.8M, +0.1% YoY, and above S&P Global consensus of $100.8M; non-GAAP EPS was $0.01 vs consensus of $(0.20), a beat, while GAAP EPS was $(0.60) driven by non-cash goodwill impairment ($64.3M) and accelerated depreciation ($50.7M) tied to LNG station removal. Values marked with * are from S&P Global.
• Adjusted EBITDA rose to $17.1M (+33% YoY), supported by stronger fueling margins and prioritization of downstream RNG delivery despite supply constraints from cold weather; cash and short-term investments increased to $226.6M (+$9.1M QoQ).
• Guidance update: 2025 GAAP net loss widened to $(225)–$(220)M (from prior $(160)–$(155)M) to reflect booked non-cash charges; 2025 Adjusted EBITDA maintained at $50–$55M.
• Operational catalysts: resumed share repurchases (~$26.1M remaining capacity), breadth of initial Cummins X15N adoption (25+ fleets), and potential tailwinds from AFTC reauthorization/45Z finalization; near-term volatility tied to policy outcomes (CARB LCFS, 45Z) and RNG supply normalization.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Adjusted EBITDA increased to $17.1M (vs $12.8M in Q1 2024), with positive operating cash flow and improved core fueling economics; management emphasized “a net increase in cash and investments” in the quarter.
• Management highlighted stable demand across refuse, transit and trucking, and reiterated confidence in RNG’s economics for heavy-duty trucking: “RNG is the commonsense solution… fleets can economically achieve significant emissions reductions”.
• Resumed share repurchases under the existing program (~$26.1M capacity as of March 31), reflecting confidence in valuation and balance sheet strength.

What Went Wrong

• RNG gallons sold fell 12.8% YoY to 50.6M due to cold-weather impacts on third-party supply (January–February), contributing to lower RIN revenue and volume pressure.
• GAAP net loss spiked to $(135.0)M, primarily from non-cash goodwill impairment ($64.3M) and accelerated depreciation ($50.7M) tied to the planned exit of LNG assets at 55 Pilot Flying J locations.
• AFTC expired on Dec 31, 2024, removing $5.4M of revenue YoY; RIN revenue declined by $3.6M on lower prices/volumes/share of RIN values, partially offset by LCFS timing (+$4.0M).

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Clean Energy Fuels Q1 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, you will have the opportunity to ask questions during the question-and-answer session. You may register to ask a question at any time by pressing Star 1 on your telephone keypad. You may withdraw yourself from the queue by pressing Star 2. Please note this call may be recorded, and I will be standing by should you need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Robert Vreeland, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

Thank you, Operator. Earlier this afternoon, Clean Energy released financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025. If you did not receive the release, it is available on the investor relations section of the company's website at www.cleanenergyfuels.com, where the call is also being webcast. There will be a replay available on the website for 30 days. Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that some of the information contained in the news release and on this conference call contains forward-looking statements that involve risk, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Such forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance, and the company's actual results could differ materially from those contained in such statements. Several factors that could cause or contribute to such differences are described in detail in the risk factors section of Clean Energy's Form 10Q filed today.

These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements or supply new information regarding the circumstances after the date of this release. The company's non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA will be reviewed on this call and exclude certain expenses that the company's management does not believe are indicative of the company's core business operating results. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to GAAP results. The directly comparable GAAP information, reasons why management uses non-GAAP information, a definition of non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA, and a reconciliation between these non-GAAP and GAAP figures is provided in the company's press release, which has been furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K today.

With that, I will turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Littlefair.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Thank you, Bob. I hope the sound is okay. I'm in Washington, D.C., and I've been up here working to spread the word on RNG. Bob, thanks. I'm pleased to report we had very solid results for the first quarter of the year. In the quarter, we sold 51 million gallons of renewable natural gas, generated $104 million in revenue, and $17 million of adjusted EBITDA. We finished the quarter with $227 million in cash on our balance sheet, a $9 million increase since the start of the year. Our RNG sales volumes were lower compared to the first quarter of 2024. This is driven by lower supply volumes from our third-party RNG producers. Some of our producer partners were impacted by weather and other operational events. These issues are seasonal in nature, and we expect a rebound over the remainder of the year.

Importantly, we did not see any material decline in demand from our fueling customers, despite the market uncertainty regarding the economic impact of tariffs. Our fuel volume is underpinned by steady demand from our fleet customers in the refuse, transit, and trucking sectors. In recent months, there's been a lot of attention on tariffs and renewable energy policy. I believe that our business and product, renewable natural gas, are both well-positioned. First, tariffs have minimal direct impact on our business. Our network of fueling stations is located in the U.S. and Canada, and all of our RNG production facilities are located in the U.S. The vast majority of equipment and materials for our construction projects have already been procured. In fact, earlier this year, we moved compressors equipment from inventory in Canada to our facility in Wyoming as a precaution.

Unlike other renewable energy supply chains, our RNG is produced, transported, and delivered to customers here in the U.S. We are maintaining our full-year financial outlook and CapEx guidance provided on our last call, which Bob will describe in more detail. However, we could feel some indirect impact of tariffs in that it creates uncertainty for our customers in the heavy-duty trucking sector. Potential impacts from tariffs on trucking supply chains, inflation, and economic activity may affect our customers' business planning, including purchases of all trucks that would include their emission reduction initiatives, like replacing diesel trucks with trucks equipped with the Cummins X15N and running on RNG. Current market dynamics may slow decision timelines for natural gas vehicle purchases, but we strongly believe any delay will be temporary, and the merits of RNG for heavy-duty trucking remain very compelling.

In fact, at last week's Advanced Clean Transportation Expo, we heard many speakers comment over and over that RNG is a low-carbon fuel with proven technology and infrastructure at a lower cost per mile than diesel. A parade of executives from a variety of fleets extolled the economic and environmental benefits of operating with RNG. An Amazon executive spoke about the total cost of operating their 3,000 heavy-duty trucks on RNG, as well as being the only alternative available to help them achieve their climate pledge. Shippers like Unilever and carriers like Paper Transport agreed. The theme was so predominant that Eric DeAndros, the coordinator of the expo, attended by 11,000 people, claimed that natural gas fueling was having a renaissance as the alternative that is truly viable in the heavy-duty vehicle market.

As we said on our last call, we expect early adoption of the X15N this year with a lot of singles versus home runs. Our station network and full suite of customer services are ideally suited to support fleets' initial purchases of trucks with the X15N and the expansion over time. In addition to the opportunities in the heavy-duty trucking, our other businesses continue to expand. We proudly serve over 69 transit agencies at 120 different sites and 175 refuse customers at 325 different sites across the U.S. and Canada. RNG has been dependable, clean, low-cost fueling solutions for those fleets for years. As an example, we completed a new RNG station for our longtime customer, Birtech, a large waste company in Victorville, California, during the first quarter to accommodate an additional 60 trucks.

Birtech also contracted with us to add 50 trucks to fuel with RNG at another station we maintain for them. We're also expanding our relationship with USA Hauling, signing a contract to build another private station in South Windsor, Connecticut, to fuel an additional 440 CNG trucks. I've told you about our success in converting existing customers from CNG to RNG. This allows the customer to dramatically and affordably reduce their carbon emissions while providing us with better margins on the fuel. Transit agencies around the country have taken advantage of this opportunity, and recently we did this for the station we operate at the Nashville Airport. These are just a few examples of developments which occurred in the first quarter but highlighted the nature of overall business and deep customer relationships. On the federal policy front, we continue to await various outcomes.

While the Alternative Fuel Tax Credit expired at the end of last year, the Renewable Natural Gas Incentive Act was introduced in the House in March, which, if included in the larger tax bill, could be retroactive to the beginning of the year. We are working closely with members of both houses to keep the RNG tax credit top of mind. The 45Z Production Tax Credit is in the process of being finalized. We included a minimal amount from these credits in our Q1 results and our 2025 financial outlook based on the initial guidance, but once the 45Z credit is finalized, it could contribute more meaningfully to our results. RNG is a common commercial transportation. As a domestically produced biofuel that converts waste into a low-cost, low-emission transportation fuel, we believe RNG fits well with this administration's priorities. In California, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard program updates remain in process.

We expect more clarity in the coming weeks. As a reminder, these updates are expected to support higher credit prices over time, which is necessary to support growth in the low-carbon fuels needed to hit California's targets. Now, briefly turning to our upstream dairy RNG production projects, the six projects that have been operating are doing well, and we are always working to improve production. We have two others in advanced construction expected to be in service by the end of the year and have additional projects in construction through our development arrangement with Moss Energy, with three projects likely to come online in 2026. In summary, our business is performing well. We are advancing our growth initiatives, and we have a strong balance sheet.

We are confident in the stability and growth potential of our business and see multiple avenues for upside as some of these policy outcomes are resolved. That is why we resumed our share repurchase program in late March. We believe our shares are undervalued, and this enables us to make repurchases while still maintaining ample cash to fund our growth. With that, I want to hand the call back to Bob, who will give more details about our strong quarter.

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

Thank you, Andrew. Good afternoon to everyone. I agree. We did have a strong quarter, first quarter of 2025, with revenue of $104 million. At face value, the $104 million is basically level with last year. I know we have a number of variables within our revenues, but the one for sure to keep in mind this year is that we do not have the Alternative Fuel Tax Credit in our revenue number because it expired. Last year, there was $5.4 million of Alternative Fuel Tax Credit in the revenue number for 2024. In the quarter, we generated good positive operating cash flows in the first quarter of 2025, which actually exceeded our capital expenditures. Net-net, as Andrew mentioned, our cash and investment balances grew from the end of last year.

I'll start here on our GAAP earnings, and I want to address a couple of items on the GAAP earnings. The first item is the planned removal of the LNG station equipment from various Pilot Flying J sites in 2025. We discussed this on our last earnings call and included the accelerated depreciation in our 2025 outlook. I'm just reporting here that we are proceeding as planned with that project, and most of the accelerated depreciation expense was recorded in the first quarter of 2025. The remaining accelerated depreciation will be recorded over time through the end of our lease, which is in August of this year. The second item is the write-off of our long-standing goodwill and tangible balance. This non-cash write-off was purely based on our share price at the end of the quarter. I've included that charge.

I've added that into the GAAP outlook for 2025 since it's in the books, if you will. These two non-cash items combined amounted to $115 million of our GAAP loss of $135 million in total for the first quarter of 2025. As a side note, the values of our remaining assets are well-supported by our positive cash flows and are not directly tied to our share price. From a non-GAAP standpoint, our adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 was $17.1 million compared to $12.8 million a year ago. These positive results were driven by continued strength in our fuel distribution business, including an increase in delivery of RNG to fleets at our stations and to our customers where we're also performing maintenance and services. Andrew went through the overall decline in RNG, which was very much supply-related.

There was also maybe about 5 million gallons that were in the first quarter of 2024 that did not repeat in 2025. We've talked about these gallons that we deliver sometimes outside our network just because we're so prevalent in the RNG market. I guess, importantly on this, so that we're really dialed in on what's going on with the RNG, is because we have such a large footprint between our suppliers and our stations and our maintenance customers, we are able to optimize the flow of the available RNG such that our stations, our customers that we're maintaining and delivering RNG are priorities. That demand, as I said, went up. We're actually up year over year in those areas, which actually did contribute as well to our positive results for the first quarter.

The dairies that we have, our joint ventures there, they were also impacted by the cold weather, but they do remain on plan with their financial results. As Andrew noted, we are making good progress in the ramp-up of these dairies. All in all, a good quarter for us in operations and generating cash, and we have a strong but continued cautious optimism about achieving our plan for 2025. With that, operator will open the call to questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star two. Once again, that is star one to ask a question. We will pause for just a moment to allow questions to queue. Thank you. Our first question will come from Dushyant Ailani with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Dushyant Ailani (SVP of Equity Research)

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I think you were just talking about cautious optimism in hitting a 2025 guide. Could you talk about what would take you to the lower end and then what would take it to the upside?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Dushant, let me start, and Bob, feel free to let's see how this tariff shakes out relative to putting some pressure on the future outlook for people buying equipment and buying trucks. We've noticed, and if you look at the numbers coming in, I mean, there has been a lowered purchasing of heavy-duty trucks in the first quarter. I guess I'm an optimist, and Dushant and I believe that we're going to have more clarity on tariffs and that I think the market will settle down, and you'll see trucking companies begin to increase their purchases as sort of the underlying tariffs begin to get worked out over the course of the year.

That's number one, and that'll impact our future outlook in terms of volume growth being contributed by the X15N, albeit most of that will end up in the very latter part of the year and in 2026, as we've said. The other is 45Z. Depending on how that shakes out, that could end up being a more meaningful number. On this legislation, it's too early to tell, but we'll know more here in the next few months on if there's some supportive incentives like the RNG Incentive Act. All of those would be significant contributors to us. We still have a very nice underlying relationship between oil and natural gas. That's been very constructive. That helps our underlying fuel business. That's contributing. We have our eye on that oil price as well.

I think for the most part, these things can resolve themselves in an optimistic way, Dushant, that makes us feel comfortable. In the very macro market sense of what's happening with sustainability, what's happening with the effort to continue to be green from our customers, we saw this and heard this loud and clear from the ACT conference. Our customers still want to be green, but it has to make economic sense. Frankly, with the framework in the Biden administration of mandates and California mandates, many of which were pushing for battery electric or hydrogen, a lot of those things have been, frankly, are in the process of being unwound. We believe that RNG is taking its rightful place as a common-sense economic alternative fuel. We'll end up being the main competitive fuel, alternative fuel, low-carbon fuel versus renewable diesel and diesel fuel.

That gives us great optimism. We're in the shakeout phase of that, but our customers know it. Those people that went to the ACT conference know it. That's kind of, Dushant, how we see the remainder of the year working out.

Dushyant Ailani (SVP of Equity Research)

That's helpful. Thank you. Just one more, I guess, Bob and Andrew, you guys talked about it where revenue was largely in line versus last year despite the loss of AFTC and also volume coming in lower. I think you touched on it briefly on pricing. How do we kind of think about that? I think that that was basically what supported Q1 as well. You had some strong pricing there. Could you talk about how that shakes out for the remainder of the year?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Bob, go ahead and take that one.

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

Yeah. Okay. I think, Dushant, I think it would, at least the way we see it, is it would shake out kind of similarly the remaining quarters as we are, assuming there's not some radical change in the underlying commodity of natural gas, which can impact our revenues. I think we see somewhat steady case going forward on that. We won't have the AFTC, but we still enjoy kind of a nice spread between oil and natural gas, so that's supportive. We are seeing we should continue to see good fleet volumes and our maintenance deals as we did in Q1. I think that should mean that the revenue number will be kind of in line with where we were in Q1.

Dushyant Ailani (SVP of Equity Research)

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Stine with Craig Hallum. Your line is open.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, Andrew. Hi, Bob.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Hi, Eric.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey. You mentioned ACT, and I was out there, obviously. One thing I heard kind of loud and clear, obviously a lot of interest, excitement in the X15N, but arguably it is behind schedule versus what Cummins was expecting and others. I was just hearing a lot about incremental cost. I know that to this point, you've got PACCAR in the market, and Freightliner just opened their order book. Curious your thoughts on maybe the impact that that has where incremental costs for the X15N or trucks with the X15N have been and what that trend looks like going forward.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Eric, I want to be careful to air all the dirty laundry of my friends on truck pricing, but I think I've said it before, which is that as those early trucks, the X15N, were launched into the market latter part of last year, it's no secret. The incremental price was just a bit too high. By the time you moved that from the engine cost and the, and I think, frankly, in-line, fuel system cost, and then you put the OEM markup on it and the dealer markup on it, I think people got a tad bit carried away. At one point, a very powerful dealer said, "Well, it's still half the price of the incremental cost of an electric truck." I said, "Wait a minute. We don't compete with an electric truck. We compete with a diesel truck." We worked very hard with Cummins.

We have a program with Cummins that was joined in by the fuel system folks. And frankly, and with our friends at PACCAR to reduce that from as much as $110,000 incremental price to something that's on the way toward $80,000 incremental price or so. What we found, Eric, that an incremental price at around $75,000-$80,000 with an aggressive but doable fuel price, certainly for us with our network and our ability to supply RNG, you can get the total cost of ownership for the fleet where it needs to be. That is, you can get a fleet somewhere around the two to two and a half year payback. And that's enough to start the discussion of getting them to then put in for ordering. Now, there's some good news here.

The Freightliner, as you mentioned, a product that's come to market, they have a little bit lower price point overall. I think competition is a good thing. We have seen some initial orders go in for the Freightliner, that price is lower. I think we're on our way toward where we want to be. I think over time, it's clear that if we can get to something closer to 6,000 units a year, you can drive somewhere between 15-20% out of the fuel system cost too. We're at early stages. Incremental has been a little high at the initial launch. It is coming down. I feel like it's headed in the right direction to get to where we need to be.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Good color there. Maybe you just were talking about kind of the overall environment versus battery and, I guess, fuel cells way out and the realization. Obviously, the customers are saying that pretty loud and clear. Just curious, I mean, from a policy standpoint, I know in California, always enamored with battery electric, fuel cells, etc., and not really RNG in this current environment. Do you see a situation where, I mean, you could, I guess, you do not necessarily need to have a benefit versus those, but at least on equal footing?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Eric, look, it's kind of tricky right now to go through all the. Bore everybody to tears. The California ACF, that is the fleet rules that they put in place, those are gone. The manufacturer side, which required manufacturers to sell 10% batteries, that thing, as you probably well know, the Congress voted to clear those out, those policies and the omnibus rule. Now, the Senate hasn't taken up that CRA action yet. There's question whether or not they will, but I have a feeling that they might. There's some question of whether or not the parliamentarian would think that's appropriate. There's no doubt we are working with CARB that their program is a mess. What's happening right now when people can't buy an electric or won't buy an electric, and there is no requirement anymore, they're buying diesel. They're buying older diesel vehicles.

CARB understands this is not good. We are working with CARB and feel like it makes great sense that RNG should, once again, or should be a compliant fuel. It is not done yet. Those are the discussions that are underway. It is different from where in their crystal ball and their sort of theology where they want it to be. Look, the electric does not get it. It might on light duty. It does not on the heavy duty. There is not the electricity. The cost is too high. The experience is not right. The customers were not going to do it. It has been a fiasco, frankly. About 11 of the states that adopted the CARB policies have all backed water on it. I think that if you want clean air, 90% less NOx, and you want lower carbon, RNG will rise to the surface.

We are seeing that now. Those are the discussions that we are having with the policymakers, frankly, at the federal level as well as the state level.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Yep.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rob Brown with Lake Street Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Rob Brown (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good afternoon. Just wanted to dive in a little bit to the RNG facilities, sort of where you're at in terms of getting those open and running and generating kind of EBITDA. Could you just update us on the timeline there?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

One of them has been open a while, Rob, and it's producing pretty well. We're steadily increasing the production. We know there's hope, right? We know that through good operations, you can increase them, get them closer. They're not quite there yet to nameplate. That's our Del Rio facility. The other five we have are a little bit behind that trajectory. We have one bad weather problem with one of them, but they're all now in production, albeit not quite to the levels that we want yet. By the end of the year, we like to think that they're going to be 80% of where we thought they should, kind of in that range. They're making nice headway. We're making some tinkering with our operators there, and we like the way that's going.

Two more should be sort of on production toward the end of this year, late. We're making very nice headway at our South Fork Dairy that's in the Texas Panhandle, and we're making good progress, though I don't know it'll be late in the year, but our big Idaho facility as well. Our relationship with Moss, as I mentioned in my remarks, those come on a little later, but Dell Moss is a great operator, a great developer, and those projects are underway. These projects still take a little longer than all of us would like. Certainly, the pathway process is cumbersome and slow, though in a conversation with the chairwoman of CARB the other day, she said help is on the way, that more staff are being brought in to deal with the backlog of pathways.

We like to think that that'll help us because some of these have just taken too long to certify the pathway. It looks like some help's on the way. By the way, Rob, if I can use this to answer your question, one of the other things that from our first question on Dushyant, we think you're going to be through the final stages of cleaning up the administrative problems that CARB had with moving forward on their new program, and think that should get done here by late May. That would mean that you'll begin to move forward. That should work off over time, work off the credit oversupply that we see in California. That should lead later this year and early next year to a strengthening of the low carbon fuel credit pricing.

Rob Brown (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thank you for all the color there. As you think about the current environment, how, if at all, does that change your CapEx plans for this year? Are you potentially slowing that at all, or are you just maintaining the plan as before?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

No, we're being cautious on the RNG side. We've said we've looked at a lot of projects. We've looked at some opportunities to perhaps purchase some RNG projects that are being very close. We're being very careful with looking at that. I think we kind of have the projects that we're currently developing on RNG funded. We don't see any increases to that right now. We want to get the ones done that we have. We're in a nice position in that we have 90 or so on the way toward 100 with new contracts that aren't where we're not taking supply yet. We have 100 different suppliers of RNG. We're in a unique position to have a lot of supply. We have a very nice relationship, joint marketing relationship with BP. We have a lot of supply that's available.

We like our position on the six projects that we've got and the new ones that will come on. On the station side, I could see that we might, not because we've put the brakes on, that we might be a little bit lighter on CapEx just on some of the projects tend to get permitted and this and that. It's my hope, though, that as you start seeing some of these really big fleets begin to look at taking more X15Ns and beginning to, if you will, do what Amazon did and start asking us to, later this year, early next year, you're going to need some CapEx to build out stations. Of course, that's a very nice thing and a very good thing. We're very happy. We'll be very happy if we need to do that.

I would say for the year, Rob, it should come in about what we've said and maybe a bit lighter, a bit lighter, but not because we're worried about the future, just because of kind of the way things are. We're wanting to be careful and be prudent, but just because of the way these things sometimes take a little longer to come online than you might think.

Rob Brown (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thank you. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital. Your line is open.

Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)

Good afternoon, all, and thanks for your time.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, Derek.

Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)

Andrew, I wanted to follow up, Andrew, on your CARB commentary just to make sure I'm clear on your understanding of how it's progressing. I mean, clearly, this has been far from a straight line. As you think about where CARB is today, do you think they're going to have final policy in place by June? Do you know if they intend to retroactively apply that policy across the first half of 2025?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

You're right. It's not really a straight line. I've kind of been wrong on timing a little bit because it's hard to predict what's going on. I'm told, and we think, and CARB staff believes that it should be, that it should be done by June 1, and that therefore it'll be retroactive. If it doesn't make the June 1, then there's a question whether or not that they can. In conversations with senior members of CARB, we've been told that they think that it should. It looks like through the comment period that I think already came and went on the OPL issue, I think fingers crossed, looks like that's kind of headed in the right direction.

Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)

All right. So fingers crossed there. Maybe staying with you on the policy front, I'd love to get a feel for the support you're hearing from your discussions in D.C., maybe beginning with the RINs. We've heard throughout earnings there's been a constructive dialogue between ag and the refining sector on the future of biofuels policy. While I've heard this could lead to a 5.25 billion gallon RVO for bio-based diesels in 2026, we haven't heard that much on the cellulosic category. Setting aside the exemption commentary from last November, do you guys have a view on where the EPA may land on the RVO for the cellulosic category?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

The quick answer is no. We do not. It would not be right to say that we are having in-depth engagement. We are engaging as an industry. We have participated in some meetings on that. I feel like the administration understands the balance here, understands what is necessary to have a vibrant RFS program, yet they are pulled in several directions. One of the things I think is constructive is that the Trump administration seems to understand that we are a biofuel, that RNG cellulosic is from the farm. It is not to be overly political, but it is a red state fuel. It is a biofuel. There are a lot of things we are weighing here, but we feel like they will be constructive. That is about as far as we can go. We have not heard any numbers on that. I have not, anyway.

Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)

Terrific. I'll leave it there. Thanks for your time.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Blair with TPH. Your line is open.

Matthew Blair (Equity Research)

Great. Thank you. And good afternoon. I was hoping to dig in a little bit more on the strong results in the first quarter. Your RNG volumes came in lower than our modeling, and your RIN revenue was also lower. Maybe those two things are connected. What would you attribute the strong results to? Seasonally Q1 can also be a little soft, and there is tough weather in certain parts of the country. Was this just better core fueling margins due to a healthy oil-to-gas spread, or what really pushed things up? Was there anything that was pulled forward into Q1 that really should have been part of Q2? Thank you.

Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)

Yeah. Maybe I'll go on that one, Matthew.

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

Yeah. No, I think you kind of hit it there. Just kind of the core fueling, the core fueling, and effectively just what our effective pricing and from our stations is what was driving that. The lower RIN was connected to the supply and the lower volumes there. We had actually a pretty strong showing of low carbon fuel going into California. The LCFS actually did probably better than expected there because that pricing remained under where we had pegged it ultimately to pan out for the year. It is your kind of underlying base business fueling. We're seeing it's kind of the effect that we've talked about before too with this is that we get a gradual, incremental increase, incremental flow of volume just because as fleets bring on trucks during the year, then it's all additive. That's just kind of progressing through.

Pricing remained good. The spread was good. We are opportunistic with our basically how we source. We are good at sourcing cheap natural gas, which is feedstock into this too. All that combined, we are a big player. We have got some leverage there on all that front.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

One other thing, Bob, that I would add is trucking is good, right? The Amazon stations are open and running well, and trucking volume is looking pretty good. That all contributed, but the underlying fuel business was strong.

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

Do you think it's part of it due to a tightening dispensing market? We're hearing from upstream RNG players that it's increasingly tough to place their volumes in the transportation market. The dispensing side is getting tighter and tighter, and the rates are going up. Is that playing a role as well?

Matthew Blair (Equity Research)

Starting to.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Yep. Starting. We're seeing that.

Derrick Whitfield (Managing Director)

Yeah. We're.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Go ahead, Bob.

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

Yes. No, no. I was just going to say, yeah, we are seeing that. I'm not going to say wholesale that, but yeah, we're certainly in a good kind of negotiating position there because the nozzle tips are valuable.

Matthew Blair (Equity Research)

Great. Thanks for your comments.

Eric Stine (Senior Research Analyst)

Uh-huh.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sonya Yun with UBS. Your line is open.

Hi. Do you guys see any volume from the transportation sector, maybe going towards power generation or any update on the data center front? How are you guys looking at that going forward?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Let me start. I think my number is right. 80% of the RNG goes into transportation, and it's the best market. That's what Matthew was getting at, is that it's tight. Supply wants to find its way to transportation while we're in an invisible position at the nozzle tip. Of course, some RNG will make its way into power gen. We have not heard of any significant that I'm aware of, though I thought it would be eventually. I imagine that RNG would be such a beautiful and relatively effective and easy way to decarbonize AI power generation, right?

When I started hearing that we're going to open up Three Mile Island and build nuclear power plants, I thought to myself, "My God, we got to have a better solution than that." I don't want to say it'll never go into those markets because I'm a believer in that it ought to go and should go into the market where it's the hard-to-decarbonize market, which is the heavy-duty trucking sector, which is, remember, 40 billion gallons of fuel is used in that sector. This is where RNG should go. Still, it's about 80%. We hear of different things. I think some of the regulatory and some of the Washington and regulatory push to force utilities to use renewable sources and some of what we saw over the last couple of years.

My guess is some of that will take a breather, and I think it'll make transportation that much more important.

Got it. Thanks. Could you give some updates on your partnerships with TotalEnergies, BP, Chevron? How are they progressing, or what's the outlook on those types of oil companies?

TotalEnergies is still our largest shareholder. They're our partner in our first RNG project. We have a very robust and ongoing and deep relationship with BP. We call it a co-marketing agreement where we work together on RNG hand-in-glove. When those Archaea volumes were, if they were to go to transportation, we'd be involved with them on that. We are very excited about the future of that. We continue to work with BP as our RNG partner on those development projects, the other five, and the other two that I talked about at length, the one in Idaho and South Fork and one in Texas. We have a deep relationship with them. Chevron, because of the electric truck push, hydrogen truck push, reality is sinking in.

We're starting to see a renewed interest in our California RNG Chevron program that has fielded upwards of 350 trucks and put on the road, funded and put on the road to fuel with RNG. We have always liked that program with Chevron, and we continue to work with them. That is kind of the status of those three relationships, partnerships.

Got it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.

Craig Shere (Director of Research)

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

You bet.

Craig Shere (Director of Research)

I'm sorry. Did you specify anywhere exactly how much 45Z was in the quarter?

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

It was a no, we didn't. It was really not material, if you will. So we didn't specify it.

Craig Shere (Director of Research)

Okay. So I mean, as far as what that could be, if after that gets finalized, I mean, could you see that competing with, say, current LCFS run rates that you've been seeing as far as quarterly contributions?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

I mean, Craig, it's kind of the it's all in the detail there, right? I mean, you remember the heady days of saying that with an active correct GREET model with a minus 335. You remember our friend said that it could be worth $7 a gallon, and you run all that out. Sure, it would be a very strong contributor. Those discussions are underway. Just how will that be measured? If the Congress chooses to keep 45Z in, will they use a GREET model? Will they specify different CI scores for different various types of manure? And just where does that come down? Does it end up being where it is today at 90 cents or a dollar or less the energy? Do you get some credit for having a low-carbon RNG, in which case it would be more meaningful, two or three, four bucks?

Does it go way up the scale? It kind of depends on where that comes out. Look, you've got sort of parallel tracks working, right? You have a final rule that the Treasury Department is working on. I talked on this very subject matter about a GREET model and how it was corrupted by the Biden administration. I mean, it's really a shame that you take science and you made it political, and you put a bogus GREET model in that final temporary rule five days before the inauguration. That's what we're trying to now, the industry is trying to deal with. Just what does Congress want to do, and what does it cost? Those are all, it's sort of wild on how that's all going to shake out. I think there's a body of the Congress that understands 45Z and wants it in.

They're trying to wrestle with just how they fix it and should they fix it. What does that mean to the ethanol guys and the biofuel guys, and what does it mean to the RNG methane guys like us? That's what's being dealt with. If anybody were to tell you today that they know exactly how that's going to pan out, it's not quite right. Though I feel like if I was a betting person, I'm thinking that there probably will be a 45Z and that it is probably likely to be better than where it sits right at this moment.

Craig Shere (Director of Research)

Gotcha. On Rob's question for the upstream, do you have a timeline to get to systemically positive upstream numbers, EBITDA there? I know you had one facility, a large facility that you were expensing the development of. When that comes on, it should flip pretty quick, right?

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

I don't know if it would flip pretty quick, but certainly the projects that we have, one that's been operating for a while, that'll contribute EBITDA. The other five will next year. You have two big projects coming online kind of right at the beginning of the year that are going to go through kind of that OPEX. Individually, these dairies are going to contribute to EBITDA, and many of them will in 2026, absolutely. Whether that's going to net to an overall positive as we do our guidance and we kind of have our upstream and our distribution, we will have to see how that pencils out once we have them all operating just because we have a 37,000-cow dairy that's going to come online, as you know.

Rob Brown (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

They'll get to, I mean, at least what we're seeing is they're, with the appropriate yield on the manure and the CI, the methane content, they get there.

Craig Shere (Director of Research)

I mean, just to be on the safe side, given what you said, it sounds like second half next year, we should certainly be there.

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

Yeah. Yes on certain farms, on certain dairies. Then whether that can overtake. What I'm looking at is do you get a net positive number from the upstream EBITDA when we give our guidance? That one, we're going to need time to sort that out. Within that number, there absolutely will be positive dairies contributing EBITDA. As we bring on other, we got the Darryl Moss one. There's a little bit of certain dairies are going to go EBITDA positive for sure. One of them already is. The other ones are going to come on. Whether they're going to kind of overtake the positive side, we don't know.

Craig Shere (Director of Research)

All right. Last kind of big picture one for me. The Trump administration wants to kind of streamline as much LNG exports as possible. Obviously, that's a real easy way to right-size trade deficits. At the same time, it seems it wants to flood the world with as much oil as possible from U.S. producers and some of our friends around the world. Obviously, in terms of spreads, in terms of the fuel advantage, if that holds true, if we have $4-$4.50 Henry Hub and we have $50 Brent, I'm not saying that's going to happen for sure. If those are the concerns and we're not sure, are you hearing any fleet customers express concern? We just don't know what the end of the decade looks like on the fuel advantage and these trends, and maybe we just wait a bit longer.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

No, we're not hearing that. My view on that, and I've been right on this, and I have to be, look, it's hard to tell. I completely agree with you on oil. I mean, I think you're going to have, you will have, I mean, look, the president's going to Saudi Arabia. We've seen this act before, and they're increasing production, OPEC is, and it's going to put downward pressure on world oil price. Yet our producers have been through this before. Don't count on them to drill, baby, drill in the face of $53 oil or $49 on the way to $48 oil, right? They get it. They got burned once before on that. They're going to be careful. I think, could you see a moment when you have a lower oil price? I think so.

On the other hand, I've long believed that there's just been too, this natural gas price has been too high. The United States is just knee-deep in natural gas. And you know this because you follow it closely. The LNG is not moving as quickly. It will. They do want to push a lot out. But $4.50 gas was too high. And sure enough, you saw it come down to $3.50 and $3. And so I think you're going to have a spread that won't be on the highest end that we've seen, but will still be constructive for us and still able to allow us to price our fuel. Today, Craig, we can price our fuel and make a nice margin and undershoot West Coast diesel by $2 a gallon.

Now, that will get challenging, but you'll still have an opportunity to be in the $1.25-$1.50 range, cheaper than diesel fuel, almost no matter where you operate in the where you're buying diesel in the United States. We've long, and I've been giving this speech for 20 years. That's what's different about our fuel versus some of the others is that we have an inherent advantage on the commodity pricing relative to oil on our fuel. I still feel like that's going to be good for us. Though I don't disagree with you that you might see a you may get the market may overplay the oil on the downside here in a minute, but I don't believe that the gas is going to be you're not going to have $4.50 gas and $40 oil. I don't think that's in the cards.

Craig Shere (Director of Research)

All right. Thank you very much.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

If you did, it would be more of a spike situation, not a longer term.

Craig Shere (Director of Research)

Understood. Thank you.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Okay.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Betty Zhang with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Betty Deng (Analyst)

Thanks. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is on M&A. Just curious how you're thinking about M&A these days, whether there are any opportunities or if you are more so looking to build out organically.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

No, I think, Betty, we're being very careful. I think for good reason, right? We're trying to be careful with our capital. We like our current position. We believe we're getting a, well, we are getting a chance to look at projects where maybe private equity or some others have tired of projects that are nearly complete or about to be complete. I think given that these projects take a little longer than one would like on the greenfield nature of them, that is what has us. We're more interested in those kinds of projects than putting our precious capital right at this moment, given what we know right today in greenfield projects. Now, having said that, we've looked at them, and perhaps there still needs to be a little bit more market therapy before some of those make sense.

We are in a nice position in that we get to look at a lot of projects, and we have a team that's smart at looking at them. We continue to look at whether or not there are some projects that would be finished that we could add in. We have not really found those that make sense yet.

Betty Deng (Analyst)

That's helpful. Thank you. I wanted to ask, for the first quarter, obviously, volumes were a bit lower than we expected, and you guys had talked about that. I'm curious for the full year of 2025, the 246 million target, is that still achievable? How are you thinking about that?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Betty, the way I look at that is we'll be close to that, right? I mean, financially, even if we're a bit shy of the $246, we'll close on that number. We may not get there, but we'll be in the range. Financially, I think we'll end up probably being even better than hitting the $246 because we're liking the way that's shaping up. The next part of the year, we'll close. Whether or not we get exactly there, hard to tell at this moment, but we'll get within very close range of it.

Betty Deng (Analyst)

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Jason Gabelman (Managing Director)

Yeah. Hey. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I know you said you started repurchasing stock again, and I'm just wondering, as you think about capital allocation, how you're determining funds to go towards the buyback. Is it more organic cash flow? Is it using cash from the balance sheet? And how comfortable are you with, or I should say, where are you comfortable taking the cash balance to support the buyback?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Yeah. I'll let Bob kind of get into maybe the detail. He has some thoughts on this. I mean, look, we believe our stock is really undervalued. We wanted to put some capital to use to support the stock and believe it's a good buy. That's why we've done it and probably will continue to do it at these levels. We're being prudent about it. Bob, do you want to give a little more color on it?

Robert Vreeland (CFO)

Yeah. I mean, Jason, I mean, we're basically just kind of we reinstated a program that we already had in place. So it's not just an unlimited and real subjective of how far do you go. I mean, we had about $26 million available from a prior approval that we got from the board and everyone, and we just put that back in place. And so we'll see how far we go within that perimeter, if you will. So there is a little bit of maybe a cap that you would say before we would have to get some other approvals. So it's programmatically done, okay, in terms of how we get in, when we get in, and yeah, and how that's done. You have blackout periods, all that stuff you got to kind of orchestrate around.

Jason Gabelman (Managing Director)

Got it. My other question is, I think you mentioned you're in D.C. kind of supporting another bill that supports RNG. Can you just remind us what that bill exactly entails?

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Yeah. That bill is called the RNG Incentive Act, was introduced in both houses of the Senate. It was the one that we started a couple of years ago. Every time you have a new Congress, you have to reintroduce a bill from the previous Congress. So that's the Incentive Act. It was introduced by Brian Fitzpatrick and Linda Sanchez and Tom Tillis in the Senate and Senator Mark Warner. That's a dollar a gallon at the nozzle tip RNG.

Jason Gabelman (Managing Director)

Got it. Thanks.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

I sort of see it as a modern-day re-up of the AFTC. Let's be honest, they're looking to take stuff out right now, and they're adding a lot of stuff in. There will be incentives put in this bill. This is a pretty wild time up here. There is nothing easy about this. I like the fact that we have a bipartisan bill. I think it can be cost-effective. One of the strengths of it is it really is an economic development. It helps in rural Americas. It helps the farmer because it's RNG. We're seeing some interest. Let's leave it there.

Jason Gabelman (Managing Director)

Understood. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. It appears we have no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the program back over to Andrew Littlefair for any additional or closing remarks.

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO)

Good. Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. We look forward to filling you in next quarter on how we're doing. Thank you. Good day.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's event. You may now disconnect.