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COMCAST CORP (CMCSA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered a clean beat vs S&P Global consensus: Adjusted EPS of $1.09 vs $0.99* and revenue of $29.9B vs $29.8B*, aided by C&P margin expansion to 41.4% and improved Peacock losses; GAAP EPS was $0.89 . Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
- Connectivity momentum was mixed: domestic wireless lines added +323K (best in 2 years) while domestic broadband lost 199K; broadband ARPU grew 3.3% YoY per management .
- Content & Experiences was bifurcated: Media Adj. EBITDA +21% (Peacock loss improved by $424M) and Studios +22% offset by Theme Parks -32% due to ~$100M Epic Universe pre-opening costs and Hollywood wildfire impacts .
- Management is executing a multi-quarter convergence/pricing reset (five‑year price guarantee with bundled mobile; Nitel closed Apr 1); expect several quarters for traction; Business Services remains a mid‑single digit grower with ~57% margins .
- Catalysts: Epic Universe opening May 22; converged pricing and mobile attach; continued Peacock loss improvement and NBA rights later in 2025 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- C&P margin expansion and wireless momentum: C&P Adj. EBITDA margin rose 90 bps to 41.4% and wireless net adds were +323K, the highest in two years; management emphasized a refreshed go‑to‑market to drive mobile attach .
- Peacock inflection: Media Adj. EBITDA +21% to $1.0B, with Peacock revenue at $1.2B and EBITDA loss improved by $424M YoY; “momentum in streaming continues” (Roberts) .
- Studios execution: Adj. EBITDA +22% to $298M on strong carryover from Wicked/Nosferatu and digital sales; content licensing timing helped .
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What Went Wrong
- Broadband pressure: Domestic broadband customers fell by 199K amid “intensely competitive” market and slight uptick in churn; management cited price transparency/ease-of-business as pain points being addressed .
- Theme Parks dip: Adj. EBITDA -32% to $429M, reflecting ~$100M Epic pre‑opening costs and Hollywood wildfire headwinds; Hollywood recovery expected to be gradual .
- Video and advertising declines: Residential video revenue -5.4% and advertising -7.4% YoY weighed on Residential C&P; management called out lower international and domestic political/nonpolitical ad demand .
Financial Results
Consolidated results (oldest → newest)
Q1 2025 vs S&P Global Wall Street consensus
Connectivity & Platforms (C&P) – summary
Residential C&P – revenue mix
Business Services Connectivity
Content & Experiences (C&E)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are focused on shifting our business mix toward growth by investing in six areas… residential broadband, wireless, business services, theme parks, streaming and premium content in our studios.” (Michael Cavanagh) .
- “We are simplifying our pricing construct… our first‑ever nationwide price guarantee… locked in for 5 years with no annual contract required… option to add a free mobile line for 1 year.” (Cavanagh) .
- “Wireless net line additions [were] the best quarter… in 2 years… penetration at just 13% of our residential broadband customer base, we have significant runway for growth.” (Jason Armstrong) .
- “Theme Parks… impacted by the Hollywood wildfires… around $100 million of pre‑opening costs for Epic Universe.” (Armstrong) .
- “Media results include $1.2 billion of [Peacock] revenue and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $215 million, compared to… loss of $639 million in the prior year period.” (Press release) .
Q&A Highlights
- Parks demand/macro: Orlando trends “stable” with ticket/hotel bookings “a little ahead of our expectations”; Hollywood recovery “gradual” post‑wildfires (Cavanagh) .
- Handset tariffs/subsidy risk: Comcast positions as challenger with BYOD flexibility; focus on value over device subsidy escalation (Watson) .
- Project Genesis impact: Network upgrades progressing; benefits expected as simplified pricing rolls out; bandwidth consumption +10% per subscriber (Watson) .
- Broadband ARPU outlook: Expect “healthy” ARPU growth; convergence investments may temper near‑term EBITDA but increase LTV and reduce churn (Watson/Armstrong) .
- Peacock outlook: Continued loss improvement expected; NBA to drive subs/monetization, with normalization over first season (Cavanagh) .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $29.89B vs $29.76B*, Adjusted/Primary EPS $1.09 vs $0.99* — both beats. Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
- Where estimates may adjust: C&P margin outperformance and wireless net add strength support upward bias to 2025 C&P margin/EBITDA trajectories; Theme Parks near‑term EBITDA likely revised lower on Hollywood/ pre‑opening costs, with medium‑term lift tied to Epic ramp .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Convergence pivot is underway: the five‑year price guarantee and bundled free mobile should improve churn/LTV, but management flagged a multi‑quarter transition and modest near‑term EBITDA headwinds .
- Wireless is becoming a material growth driver: +323K lines, only 13% penetration of broadband base, and a product/footprint advantage via WiFi offload; sustained net add acceleration is a potential re‑rating catalyst .
- Peacock’s path to breakeven is clearer: revenue growth and materially lower losses in Q1, with NBA rights as a 2H catalyst to acquire/monetize high‑value audiences .
- Parks near‑term dip sets up a powerful 2H/2026 recovery: ~$100M Q1 pre‑opening costs and LA wildfires mask stable Orlando; Epic Universe opening should drive multi‑year EBITDA growth .
- Business Services compounding: mid‑single‑digit revenue and ~57% margins continue; Nitel adds a few hundred bps to Q2 revenue growth with minimal EBITDA drag, strengthening enterprise capabilities .
- Capital returns remain robust alongside a strong balance sheet: $3.2B returned in Q1 and quarterly dividend maintained at $0.33 per share .
- Narrative to watch: execution on simplified pricing/migration, sustained mobile attach momentum, and early Epic Universe attendance/spend metrics — likely the near‑term stock movers .
Notes: All company results and commentary are sourced from Comcast’s Q1 2025 8‑K/press release and earnings call transcript, plus relevant press releases as cited. Consensus/estimates marked with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.