Business Description
Comcast Corporation is a global media and technology company that operates through two primary business segments: Connectivity & Platforms and Content & Experiences. The company provides broadband, wireless, video, and voice services under brands such as Xfinity, Comcast Business, and Sky, and produces and distributes entertainment, sports, and news through brands like NBC, Telemundo, Universal, Peacock, and Sky . Additionally, Comcast operates Universal theme parks, contributing significantly to its revenue .
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Connectivity & Platforms - Offers broadband, wireless, video, and voice services primarily under the Xfinity, Comcast Business, and Sky brands. Includes Residential Connectivity & Platforms and Business Services Connectivity, with Sky-branded entertainment television networks in the UK and Italy.
- Residential Connectivity & Platforms - Provides broadband and wireless services, showing significant growth in domestic broadband and wireless.
- Business Services Connectivity - Delivers high-margin connectivity services to businesses, contributing significantly to annual revenue.
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Content & Experiences - Encompasses Media, Studios, and Theme Parks, producing and distributing entertainment, sports, and news.
- Media - Includes brands like NBC, Telemundo, and Sky, offering a wide range of entertainment and news content.
- Studios - Produces films and television content under the Universal brand.
- Theme Parks - Operates Universal theme parks, which have seen substantial revenue growth.
- Streaming - Provides streaming services through the Peacock brand.
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Q3 2024 Summary
What went well
- Comcast's broadband network upgrades are on track, moving towards multi-gig symmetrical speeds over time, further strengthening its competitive position.
- The acquisition of NBA rights will bring broad and diverse audiences to NBC and Peacock, creating opportunities for new content and leveraging the NBA's pop culture appeal.
- Comcast maintains healthy ARPU levels even in markets with increased fiber competition, demonstrating effective competitive strategies and resilience in its broadband business.
What went wrong
- Increased competition from fiber providers is impacting Comcast's market share in broadband. David Watson acknowledged that when fiber enters their markets, "we do see that there is an impact on penetration levels, so on the market share side."
- The company is exploring a potential spin-off of its cable networks, creating uncertainty about future revenues. Michael Cavanagh stated, "Obviously, we do anything like that, it will have an impact on the consolidated company." He also mentioned, "These are all the questions that we're going to go off and think about."
- Comcast anticipates higher capital expenditures in the fourth quarter, which could pressure free cash flow. Jason Armstrong noted, "We wouldn't change the guidance for the full year, which implies a little bit of a catch-up in the fourth quarter."
Q&A Summary
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Potential Spin-Off of Cable Networks
Q: Will you spin off cable networks, and what's the thought process?
A: Comcast is considering creating a new, well-capitalized company comprising its cable portfolio networks, excluding Peacock and broadcast. They are commencing a study to explore this idea but have not made any decisions yet. The study aims to determine if there's value in such a move, potentially allowing them to play offense given their strong assets and balance sheet. -
Impact of Fiber Competition
Q: How does fiber overbuild affect ARPU and market share?
A: When fiber competitors enter Comcast's markets, there's an initial impact on market share. However, over time, share evens out between Comcast and fiber providers. Importantly, ARPU remains consistent, with no significant difference between fiber and non-fiber markets. Comcast combats competition by delivering the best internet experience, focusing on speed, multi-gig capabilities, and superior WiFi. -
CapEx and Network Upgrade Plans
Q: Will CapEx increase in Q4 due to network upgrades?
A: Comcast expects capital intensity to be similar to last year. While CapEx may catch up in Q4, they're not limiting investment based on capital intensity targets. The network upgrade is on plan, with approximately 50% of the footprint updated with mid-split technology. They expect to cover the vast majority by the end of next year and are progressing towards multi-gig symmetrical speeds. -
Epic Universe Financial Impact
Q: How will Epic Universe impact your bottom line over the next few years?
A: Epic Universe is set to open in May 2025 and is expected to be accretive to the Parks segment next year. It will be priced at a premium level, consistent with the Orlando market, transforming Universal Orlando into a week-long vacation destination. Comcast anticipates strong demand and plans to optimize the totality of their Orlando footprint. -
Olympics Profitability and Broadband Growth
Q: What was the profitability of the Olympics, and did it drive broadband growth?
A: The Olympics were profitable, generating record revenue of $1.9 billion, exceeding expectations in viewership and ad sales. The games contributed to broadband subscriber growth by increasing engagement and showcasing Comcast's capabilities in delivering high-quality content. Although no specific broadband impact was provided, it was a significant contributor in Q3. -
BEAD Program Participation
Q: Will you participate in the BEAD program, and how will it affect CapEx?
A: Comcast plans to participate in the BEAD program, assuming state rules allow for rational private sector investment without excessive regulations. They do not anticipate any change to CapEx intensity from BEAD participation and will evaluate opportunities that align with their financial returns. This activity is expected to impact 2025 and beyond. -
Video Strategy Evolution
Q: How will your video offering evolve over time?
A: Comcast focuses on segmenting the market to deliver value by providing customers with the right packages at the right price. Their video strategy emphasizes customer experience, choice, and value, surrounding connectivity with appropriate video products. Offerings like StreamSaver bundle streaming services at attractive price points without subsidies, enhancing the value proposition for consumers. -
NBA Rights and Monetization
Q: How will NBA rights affect monetization and NBCUniversal?
A: Comcast expects the NBA to add value over the long term, benefiting both broadcast and Peacock. The NBA will make NBC and Peacock a year-long sports destination, attracting a younger, more diverse audience. This can be leveraged across their media assets, including content production by their studios, enhancing engagement and reducing churn on their platforms. -
Streaming Partnerships and Bundles
Q: Are you considering streaming bundles or partnerships?
A: Comcast is open to exploring streaming partnerships and bundles. While they are satisfied with their current offerings, they're open to good ideas that may arise. Details matter, and any potential partnership would need to make strategic sense and add value to their existing services. -
Content Driving Broadband Growth
Q: Did the Olympics influence your decision on NBA rights and retaining media assets?
A: The success of the Olympics in driving broadband subscriber growth reinforces Comcast's strategy of leveraging content to enhance their connectivity business. Great content increases consumer engagement and showcases their network capabilities. This synergy informs their decisions on content acquisition, such as NBA rights, and underscores the value of keeping their media and connectivity assets together. -
Video Net Adds and Programming Costs
Q: What drove the improvement in video net adds and programming costs?
A: The improvement in video net adds was driven primarily by reduced churn and strategic product offerings like the NOW portfolio (NOW TV, NOW Latino). Churn has stabilized due to bundling with mobile services and targeted segmentation. These efforts have helped balance market share and rate considerations in a competitive environment. -
Impact of Hurricanes on Q4
Q: How will recent hurricanes impact Q4 results?
A: Two hurricanes affected some Comcast cable systems, but the potential impact is expected to be significantly less than Hurricane Ian in 2022. While there will be some impact on subscribers and financials, exact numbers are not yet available. The return of seasonal customers to the Southeast may provide a tailwind, but the hurricanes could affect this. -
Unique Factors in Q3 Results
Q: What unique factors affected Q3 broadband subscribers?
A: Three unique factors positively impacted Q3 broadband subscribers: back-to-school season, the Olympics, and a competitor's (AT&T) labor work stoppage. Excluding the incremental benefits from the Olympics and the competitor's work stoppage, along with ACP impact, high-speed data subscribers would have been slightly worse than last year's Q3.
Key Metrics
Revenue by Segment - in Millions of USD | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q4 2017 | FY 2017 | Q1 2018 | Q2 2018 | Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | FY 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q4 2019 | FY 2019 | Q1 2020 | Q2 2020 | Q3 2020 | Q4 2020 | FY 2020 | Q1 2021 | Q2 2021 | Q3 2021 | Q4 2021 | FY 2021 | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | FY 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | FY 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 |
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Connectivity & Platforms | 20,153 | 20,360 | 20,271 | 20,417 | 81,201 | 20,275 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- Residential Connectivity & Platforms | 17,869 | 18,068 | 17,951 | 18,058 | 71,946 | 17,868 | 17,824 | 17,866 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Domestic Broadband | 6,343 | 6,377 | 6,366 | 6,403 | 25,489 | 6,591 | 6,569 | 6,539 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Domestic Wireless | 858 | 869 | 917 | 1,02 | 3,664 | 972 | 1,019 | 1,093 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- International Connectivity | 897 | 1,002 | 1,109 | 1,199 | 4,207 | 1,116 | 1,148 | 1,236 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Video | 7,382 | 7,358 | 7,154 | 6,903 | 28,797 | 6,876 | 6,781 | 6,713 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Advertising | 907 | 993 | 960 | 1,109 | 3,969 | 951 | 993 | 987 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Other | 292 | 354 | 324 | 345 | 1,315 | 312 | 302 | 350 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- Business Services Connectivity | 2,283 | 2,292 | 2,320 | 2,36 | 9,255 | 2,407 | 2,421 | 2,425 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Content & Experiences | 10,259 | 10,873 | 10,559 | 11,5 | 43,191 | 10,374 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- Media | 6,152 | 6,195 | 6,029 | 6,979 | 25,355 | 6,371 | 6,324 | 8,231 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Domestic Advertising | 2,025 | 2,027 | 1,913 | 2,635 | 8,600 | 2,025 | 1,991 | 3,347 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Domestic Distribution | 2,709 | 2,615 | 2,591 | 2,748 | 10,663 | 2,906 | 2,764 | 3,272 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- International Networks | 1,008 | 1,035 | 1,019 | 1,047 | 4,109 | 1,021 | 1,102 | 1,070 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- Studios | 2,956 | 3,087 | 2,518 | 3,064 | 11,625 | 2,743 | 2,253 | 2,826 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Content Licensing | 2,344 | 1,821 | 1,691 | 2,375 | 8,231 | 2,101 | 1,714 | 1,865 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-- Theatrical | 319 | 913 | 504 | 343 | 2,079 | 330 | 237 | 611 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- Theme Parks | 1,949 | 2,209 | 2,418 | 2,371 | 8,947 | 1,979 | 1,975 | 2,289 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- Headquarters and Other | - | 13 | 13 | - | 64 | 12 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Corporate and Other | 707 | 654 | 643 | 759 | 2,763 | 767 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | 715 | 686 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Eliminations | (1,427) | (1,373) | (1,358) | - | (5,583) | (1,358) | (1,825) | (2,253) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Revenue | 29,691 | 30,513 | 30,115 | 31,253 | 121,572 | 30,058 | 29,688 | 32,070 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue by Geography - in Millions of USD | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q4 2017 | FY 2017 | Q1 2018 | Q2 2018 | Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | FY 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q4 2019 | FY 2019 | Q1 2020 | Q2 2020 | Q3 2020 | Q4 2020 | FY 2020 | Q1 2021 | Q2 2021 | Q3 2021 | Q4 2021 | FY 2021 | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | FY 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | FY 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 |
United States | - | - | - | - | 94,375 | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
United Kingdom | - | - | - | - | 13,364 | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Europe | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other | - | - | - | - | 13,833 | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- International Connectivity Revenue | - | 1,002 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- International Networks Revenue | - | 1,035 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Revenue | 29,691 | 30,513 | 30,115 | 31,253 | 121,572 | 30,058 | 29,688 | 32,070 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KPIs - Metric / Period | Q2 2017 | Q3 2017 | Q4 2017 | FY 2017 | Q1 2018 | Q2 2018 | Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | FY 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 | Q4 2019 | FY 2019 | Q1 2020 | Q2 2020 | Q3 2020 | Q4 2020 | FY 2020 | Q1 2021 | Q2 2021 | Q3 2021 | Q4 2021 | FY 2021 | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | FY 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | FY 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 |
Domestic Residential Connectivity & Platforms customer relationships | 31,826 | 31,761 | 31,722 | 31,648 | - | 31,555 | 31,426 | 31,324 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
International Residential Connectivity & Platforms customer relationships | 18,051 | 17,884 | 17,958 | 17,847 | - | 17,782 | 17,638 | 17,716 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Business Services Connectivity customer relationships | 2,630 | 2,635 | 2,640 | 2,641 | - | 2,634 | 2,632 | 2,627 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Domestic Broadband Residential customers | 29,815 | 29,796 | 29,779 | 29,748 | - | 29,693 | 29,583 | 29,504 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Domestic Broadband Business customers | 2,508 | - | 2,508 | 2,505 | - | 2,495 | 2,485 | 2,477 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Domestic homes and businesses passed | - | 61,800 | 62,000 | 62,457 | - | 62,729 | 63,031 | 63,355 |
Executive Team
Questions to Ask Management
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Given that your CapEx year-to-date is running below the expected 10% in Connectivity & Platforms, should we anticipate a significant catch-up in Q4, and how will this affect your free cash flow projections?
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With the intensifying competition from fiber providers expanding their footprint, can you discuss the impact on your broadband ARPU and pricing power when new fiber entrants enter your markets, and what strategies you have in place to mitigate potential losses?
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Regarding your potential spin-off of your cable networks into a new company, can you provide more details on the strategic rationale behind this move, and do you view it as an opportunity to create a roll-up vehicle for the industry?
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The Olympics generated a record $1.9 billion in revenue, but could you comment on the profitability of the event and how you plan to sustain or improve profitability in future Olympic Games given past underperformance?
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Considering the significant investment and $150 million in pre-opening costs for Epic Universe, how do you anticipate this will impact your bottom line over the next 3 to 5 years, and what measures are in place to ensure a strong return on this substantial capital investment?
Past Guidance
Q3 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q3 2024
- Guided Period: Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
- Guidance:
- Preopening Costs for Epic Universe: Expected to incur about $150 million in total over Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with more weight towards Q1 2025 .
- Capital Expenditures: Capital intensity for the year similar to last year, implying a potential catch-up in Q4 2024 .
- Footprint Expansion: Plan to add over 1.2 million new homes passed in 2024 .
- Theme Parks: Trends in domestic theme park attendance likely to continue until the launch of Epic Universe in May 2025 .
- Broadband and Wireless Revenue Growth: Domestic broadband plus wireless revenue growing at 5%, expected to continue .
Q2 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q2 2024
- Guided Period: Q3 2024
- Guidance:
- Media EBITDA: Continued modest growth expected, with variations due to timing of sports and entertainment launches .
- Capital Spending: Declined 10% compared to the previous year, with ongoing investments to support growth .
- Broadband ARPU Growth: Expected to remain within the historical 3% to 4% range .
- ACP Impact: Bulk of ACP-related subscriber activity, including losses, anticipated in Q3 2024 .
- Capital Intensity: Comfortable with existing capital intensity envelope, continuing broadband network expansion .
- NBA Contract: New contract to impact costs and revenues in the 2025-2026 season .
Q1 2024 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q1 2024
- Guided Period: N/A
- Guidance:
- The documents do not provide specific guidance metrics or a particular period for Q1 2024. Discussions included confidence in maintaining ARPU growth within the historical range of 3% to 4% and capital allocation strategies, but no explicit guidance figures or periods were given .
Q4 2023 Earnings Call
- Issued Period: Q4 2023
- Guided Period: FY 2024
- Guidance:
- Buybacks: $15 billion buyback program reauthorized, with a pace of $3.5 billion per quarter mentioned .
- Capital Expenditure (CapEx) Intensity: Expected to remain around 10% for Connectivity & Platforms in 2024 .
- Homes Passed: Plan to pass 1.1 million or slightly more homes in 2024 .
- Broadband ARPU Growth: Expected to remain strong within the historical range of 3% to 4% in 2024 .
- Peacock Losses: EBITDA losses expected to show meaningful improvement in 2024 compared to 2023 .
- Dividend: Annual dividend increased by $0.08 per share to $1.24 per share .
- Leverage: Aim to maintain net leverage around 2.4x in 2024 .