Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

CG

CME GROUP INC. (CME)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered resilient results amid lower volatility: total revenue $1.54B vs $1.58B in Q3’24, adjusted EPS $2.68 slightly above last year, with record market data revenue ($203M) and second-highest third-quarter ADV of 25.3M contracts .
  • Results modestly beat Street on adjusted EPS and revenue, but missed on EBITDA: Adjusted EPS $2.68 vs $2.63 consensus; revenue $1.538B vs $1.530B; EBITDA $1.056B vs $1.067B consensus (estimated)*.
  • Management lowered FY25 adjusted operating expense guidance (ex-license fees) by $10M to ~$1.625B and highlighted cost savings in Google Cloud spend; all other guidance unchanged .
  • Strategic catalysts: FanDuel partnership to expand event contracts distribution, 24/7 crypto trading planned for early 2026 pending review, strong adoption of BrokerTec Chicago (cash Treasuries) and FX Spot Plus; crypto complex ADV reached a record 340K contracts in Q3 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record market data revenue of $203M (+14% YoY), marking the 30th consecutive quarter of growth; 2026 rack-rate increase of 3.5% announced, effective Jan 1, 2026 .
  • Strong adjusted profitability discipline: adjusted operating income $1.051B and adjusted operating margin ~68%, supported by lower adjusted expenses ($487M; $405M ex-license) .
  • Product innovation and distribution expansion: crypto suite scaling (record ADV 340K), first trades in SOL/XRP options, FanDuel “Predicts” launch broadening retail reach; BrokerTec Chicago off to a strong start with >$1B notional traded since launch and >25 firms connected .

What Went Wrong

  • Volume-driven revenue softness: total revenue declined 3% YoY driven by lower ADV (25.3M vs 28.3M in Q3’24) and softer Energy volumes; total clearing and transaction fees down YoY to $1.228B .
  • EBITDA slightly below consensus despite tight cost control (Street $1.067B vs actual $1.056B)*.
  • FX and certain non-operating items remain volatile; Energy complex moderated vs earlier-year strength, and overall lower micro participation in equities reduced volume-based revenue tailwinds, partially offset by RPC uplift .

Financial Results

Headline Financials vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$1,584.4 $1,692.0 $1,537.6
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$1,024.2 $1,129.3 $972.6
Net Income ($USD Millions)$912.8 $1,025.1 $908.0
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$2.50 $2.81 $2.49
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$2.68 $2.96 $2.68
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$1,095.7 N/A$1,051.0

Margins

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Operating Margin %64.6% (1,024.2/1,584.4) 66.7% (1,129.3/1,692.0) 63.3% (972.6/1,537.6)
Net Income Margin %57.6% (912.8/1,584.4) 60.6% (1,025.1/1,692.0) 59.0% (908.0/1,537.6)
Adjusted Operating Margin %69.1% (1,095.7/1,584.4) N/A~68.4% (Mgmt)

Components of Revenue

Revenue Component ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Clearing & Transaction Fees$1,297.1 $1,388.0 $1,227.9
Market Data & Info Services$178.2 $198.1 $202.5
Other$109.1 $105.9 $107.2
Total Revenue$1,584.4 $1,692.0 $1,537.6

KPIs and Operating Stats

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total ADV (000s)28,289 30,217 25,322
Interest Rates ADV (000s)14,881 15,472 13,378
Equity Index ADV (000s)7,407 7,661 6,278
Energy ADV (000s)2,571 3,082 2,295
FX ADV (000s)1,089 1,096 834
Metals ADV (000s)728 943 825
Avg RPC ($)$0.666 $0.690 $0.702
Market Data Revenue ($USD Millions)$178.2 $198.1 $202.5
Quarter-end Open Interest (Contracts)N/AN/A126M (Mgmt)

Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensusActualResult
Adjusted EPS ($)2.63*2.68 Beat
Revenue ($USD Millions)1,529.9*1,537.6 Beat
EBITDA ($USD Millions)1,066.2*1,055.2*Miss
Primary EPS - # of Estimates14*——
Revenue - # of Estimates10*——

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted Operating Expenses (ex-license fees) ($USD Billions)FY 2025~$1.635B (prior) ~$1.625B Lowered
Google Cloud-related Expense ($USD Millions)FY 2025~$115M (start-of-year expectation) ~ $100M (embedded) Lowered
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate (%)Q3 2025N/A22.6% —
Capex ($USD Millions)Q3 2025N/A~$19M —
Market Data Rack Rate PricingEffective Jan 1, 2026N/A+3.5% Announced Increase
Dividends Paid ($USD Millions)Q3 2025N/A$455M (Q3); ~$3.5B YTD Informational

All other guidance unchanged .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Retail strategy & microsQ2: New retail traders +57% YoY; record Micros ADV 4.1M FanDuel Predicts app to expand event contracts distribution; 13M potential accounts; emphasis on distribution and credibility Expanding reach
Crypto derivatives & 24/7 tradingQ2: Continued expansion (e.g., XRP futures launch in May) Record crypto ADV of 340K; first trades in SOL/XRP options; 24/7 crypto trading planned for early 2026 pending review Strong growth; structural extension
BrokerTec Chicago (cash Treasuries)N/ALaunched Oct 6; >$1B notional; >25 firms; 66% of volume at price points not available on NY club Positive early adoption
FX Spot PlusQ2: $1.4B single day; >40 clients New records each month in Q3; >70 entities; single-day $5.6B on Sept 11 Scaling
Energy marketsQ1/Q2: strong YTD growth; innovation in short-dated options Q3 moderation; WTI share back to CME (76% futures; ~91% options); focus on NatGas growth Mixed; strategic focus on NatGas
Collateral balancesQ2: Rolling 3-months cash $132.7B; non-cash $153B Q3 avg cash $135B (33bps earned); non-cash $156B (10bps); ~46% cash share Stable
Cost discipline & Google CloudQ1/Q2: progressing migration 2025 Google spend embedded ~$100M; savings found (lower pro fees) Improving cost efficiency
Market data pricingN/A3.5% rack-rate increase for 2026 Pricing tailwind

Management Commentary

  • “We achieved our second-highest third-quarter ADV, as well as adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share on par with last year’s exceptionally strong Q3 performance… focus on efficiencies, new products and expanded access, including FanDuel partnership and 24/7 trading in cryptocurrency futures and options.” — Terry Duffy, Chairman & CEO .
  • “Adjusted expenses of $487M… adjusted operating income $1.1B; adjusted EPS $2.68, third highest quarter in our history… We reduced total adjusted operating expenses (ex-license) to ~$1.625B for FY25, $10M below prior guidance.” — Lynne Fitzpatrick, CFO .
  • “BrokerTec Chicago… over $1B notional traded; >25 firms connected… 66% of volume at price points not available on BrokerTec New York club.” — Management team .
  • “We will offer 24/7 crypto trading beginning early 2026, pending regulatory review.” — CME announcement .

Q&A Highlights

  • FanDuel/prediction markets: CME emphasized broad distribution (not exclusive) and regulatory clarity for sports event contracts; economics vary by channel and product, with standard DCM/DCO fees applied across FCMs .
  • 24/7 trading/tokenization: Crypto 24/7 targeted for 2026; CME/Google partnership advancing tokenized cash via Google Cloud Universal Ledger to support weekend risk management; operational readiness and demand will guide other asset classes .
  • Energy complex: Sequential moderation; CME regained share in WTI futures (~76%) and maintained ~91% in options; focus shifting toward natural gas growth as LNG capacity rises .
  • Market data: 14% YoY growth to a record $203M; 2026 rack-rate increase of 3.5% announced; strong international subscriber growth .
  • RPC/micros mix: Equities micros share fell (47% → 43%), lifting equity RPC; micro mix the largest driver of RPC changes alongside member/non-member mix .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 results slightly beat on adjusted EPS and revenue and missed on EBITDA. Adjusted EPS $2.68 vs $2.63 consensus; revenue $1.538B vs $1.530B; EBITDA $1.056B vs $1.067B consensus*.
  • Street coverage remains robust (EPS estimates: 14; revenue estimates: 10)*. Expect modest upward revisions to market data and cost outlook, offset by cautious volume assumptions given lower Q3 ADV.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Cost discipline is real: FY25 adjusted opex (ex-license) lowered to ~$1.625B, and Google Cloud spend embedded at ~$100M, supporting margin durability even with softer volumes .
  • Structural distribution catalysts: FanDuel Predicts and FX Spot Plus broaden retail and bank access; BrokerTec Chicago strengthens fixed income cash-futures adjacency—expect incremental revenue streams and cross-venue synergies .
  • Crypto optionality remains significant: record complex activity, SOL/XRP options live, and 24/7 trading planned—positioning CME for share capture as institutional participation deepens .
  • Market data pricing power: 30 quarters of growth and a 3.5% price increase for 2026 create a visible tailwind to high-margin data revenue .
  • Near-term trading lens: With YoY ADV down, watch rate path, energy/geopolitical volatility, and crypto flows. October ADV momentum noted; any rebound in volatility should translate to clearing fee upside .
  • Medium-term thesis: CME’s diversified asset classes, operating leverage, and product innovation (event contracts, credit futures, FX Spot Plus) underpinned by capital-efficient clearing reinforce defensiveness and upside in cyclical volume recoveries .
Note: Where “Actual vs Consensus” metrics are marked with *, values are retrieved from S&P Global.

Cross-reference notes:
- Q3 2025 GAAP and adjusted results, revenue components, and operating statistics from the company’s 8-K and press release **[1156375_0001156375-25-000204_exhibit9919302025.htm:7]** **[1156375_0001156375-25-000204_exhibit9919302025.htm:8]** **[1156375_0001156375-25-000204_exhibit9919302025.htm:9]** **[1156375_20251022AQ03914:0]** **[1156375_20251022AQ03914:4]** **[1156375_20251022AQ03914:7]** **[1156375_20251022AQ03914:8]**.
- Qualitative drivers, guidance, and strategic initiatives from Q3 2025 earnings call transcript **[0001156375_2195520_1]** **[0001156375_2195520_2]** **[0001156375_2195520_3]** **[0001156375_2195520_4]** **[0001156375_2195520_6]** **[0001156375_2195520_8]** **[0001156375_2195520_9]** **[0001156375_2195520_10]** **[0001156375_2195520_11]** **[0001156375_2195520_12]** **[0001156375_2195520_13]** **[0001156375_2195520_14]** **[0001156375_2195520_15]**.
- Additional relevant press releases (ADV, crypto 24/7, SOL/XRP options) **[1156375_20251002CG88833:0]** **[1156375_20251002AQ89074:0]** **[1156375_20251014CL97797:0]**.
- Prior quarter context from Q2 and Q1 press releases **[1156375_20250723AQ35732:5]** **[1156375_20250723AQ35732:6]** **[1156375_20250423AQ70530:0]** **[1156375_20250423AQ70530:5]**.