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    CMS ENERGY (CMS)

    CMS Q2 2025: 1GW Data Center Deal Could Boost CapEx Beyond $5B

    Reported on Jul 31, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$72.17Last close (Jul 30, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$72.15Open (Jul 31, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.02(-0.03%)
    • Robust Growth Potential: Secured a 1 GW data center agreement within a 9 GW pipeline, indicating strong incremental load growth with early ramping expected in 2029-2030.
    • Flexible Resource and Investment Strategy: The company is well-positioned to balance its mix of renewables, storage, and new gas capacity, with plans to adjust its capital expenditure as additional load materializes, reinforcing its 2%-3% sales growth outlook.
    • Positive Financial and Regulatory Backing: Strong financial performance, solid financing progress (including equity contracts that derisk 70% of planned needs), and supportive regulatory outcomes bolster confidence in future earnings growth.
    • Rising Capital Expenditure: The discussion indicates that the addition of the new data center load could force an upward revision of the planned $5,000,000,000 capex if more than the anticipated incremental load materializes, potentially pressuring margins if future investments expand unexpectedly.
    • Uncertain Ramp Timing and Execution: The ramp for the new 1 GW data center load is expected to start in 2029/2030, with uncertainties around ramp rates and execution. This delayed and uncertain timeline may result in conservative revenue realization against upfront investment costs.
    • Gas Rate Case Litigation Risk: Although progress has been made on the gas case—with 80% of the revised ask supported and 95% of needed capital accounted for—the outcome still remains uncertain. Any unfavorable result could adversely impact CMS’s future earnings and regulatory capital adjustments.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Adjusted EPS Guidance

    FY 2025

    $3.54 to $3.60 per share

    $3.54 to $3.60 per share

    no change

    Long-Term EPS Growth

    FY 2025

    6% to 8%

    6% to 8%

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Data Center Growth & Pipeline Expansion

    In Q1 2025, the discussion centered on a 9‐gigawatt pipeline with 65% now focused on data centers, accelerated ramp-up in some projects, and the filing of a data center tariff to catalyze larger commitments.

    In Q2 2025, the focus is on a new data center agreement adding 1 gigawatt to a continued nine‐gigawatt pipeline that comprises both data centers and a strong manufacturing base, with an early ramp targeted later in the plan.

    Consistent optimism, though the emphasis has shifted from rapid project acceleration and tariff filing in Q1 to detailing a specific new agreement and longer-term ramp timing in Q2.

    Data Center Ramp Timing & Execution Risk

    Q1 2025 highlighted conservative planning with some projects accelerating and a tariff process seen as a catalyst, while acknowledging execution risks amid incremental load planning.

    Q2 2025 provided greater clarity with an anticipated ramp in 2029/2030 and emphasized that significant capital commitments by counterparties are reducing the execution risk.

    Increased clarity and confidence—the Q2 discussion narrows execution risk with specific timing and mitigation measures, compared to a broader conservative outlook in Q1.

    Regulatory Environment & Rate Case Outcomes

    Q1 2025 discussions focused on a constructive regulatory environment with an electric rate case that achieved 65% of the revised ask, plans for improved granularity, and a gas rate case grounded in past successful settlements, along with discussions on extreme weather cost recovery mechanisms.

    Q2 2025 emphasized Michigan’s supportive regulatory environment further through the approval of a storm deferral and a larger electric rate case filing ($460 million increase) while noting strong support in the gas rate case.

    Steady constructive sentiment with the Q2 period adding more detail in regulatory approvals and expanded revenue requests while continuing to back a positive regulatory outlook.

    Rising Capital Expenditure & Investment Strategy

    In Q1 2025, CMS Energy discussed a 5‐year plan with roughly $20 billion at the utility level and additional capital flexible for projects, including over $2.5 billion earmarked for commercial renewable investments, all under a conservative planning approach.

    Q2 2025 described investment opportunities exceeding $25 billion beyond the existing plan, preparation for an Integrated Resource Plan, larger renewable investments (including meeting a $4.5 billion target), and adjustments driven by new economic development opportunities (e.g., the new data center agreement).

    Upward shift in scale and ambition—the capital strategy in Q2 is more expansive and dynamic, reflecting a growing investment outlook compared to the more moderate plan outlined in Q1.

    Financing Strength & Flexibility

    Q1 2025 highlighted strong financing with a $1 billion hybrid note issuance at tight spreads, remaining financing needs of $700 million at the parent level and $1.1 billion at the utility level, along with opportunistic financing underpinned by cost management initiatives.

    In Q2 2025, CMS Energy reported near completion of the 2025 financing plan with executed forward equity contracts covering 70% of equity needs, robust tax credit transfers slated at $700 million, and flexibility to pull forward some 2026 financing if advantageous, supported by stable credit ratings.

    Consistently strong, with smoother financing execution—the Q2 period shows a more finalized financing plan while maintaining robust flexibility compared to Q1’s active issuance and remaining requirements.

    Operational Resilience & Storm Cost Recovery

    Q1 2025 provided extensive detail on operational resilience amid historic storms (e.g., rapid crew deployment, deferred accounting for $100 million storm costs, and comprehensive measures to limit financial impacts), stressing a proactive and detailed response.

    Q2 2025 mentions a storm deferral approval backed by regulatory support and integration of audit findings into future plans, but with less emphasis on detailed cost recovery measures than in Q1.

    Reduced emphasis and detail in Q2—the topic is still addressed via regulatory mechanisms but with less narrative detail on operational adjustments compared to the proactive, descriptive approach in Q1.

    Renewable Tax Credit Repeal & IRA Risks

    Q1 2025 discussions included explicit mentions of potential IRA risks and the possibility of a renewable tax credit repeal, balanced by safe harbor provisions, contractual safeguards, and a plan to reallocate capital if renewable project economics deteriorated.

    In Q2 2025, there is no specific mention of renewable tax credit repeal or IRA risks; the focus shifts to leveraging tax credit benefits under supportive legislation and executing tax credit transfers.

    Diminished focus—the explicit risks discussed in Q1 are not reiterated in Q2, suggesting either resolution of concerns or a shift in focus away from these risks.

    Gas Rate Case Litigation Risk

    In Q1 2025, the gas rate case was characterized by a strong track record of settlements, straightforward case aspects focused on system safety and capacity, and a confident outlook that the case is “down the fairway,” with openness to settlement if needed.

    Q2 2025 shows continued confidence with strong support levels (80% of the revised ask and 95% of capital) and anticipation of a Proposal for Decision, while still remaining open to settlement if necessary.

    Consistent confidence—both periods express optimism and a solid track record in managing litigation risks, with Q2 offering additional numerical detail reinforcing that confidence.

    1. CapEx Impact
      Q: How does 1GW affect CapEx IRP?
      A: Management explained the 1GW data center is incremental to current plans, and if more materializes it would warrant an upward adjustment of the $5B IRP capex number, with further details to be provided in the Q4 update.

    2. Gas Case
      Q: Are you confident on the gas case settlement?
      A: They are “comfortable” with the gas case, noting 80% of the revised target and 95% of capital are improved, positioning them well for a fully adjudicated outcome.

    3. Financing Outlook
      Q: Will equity be derisked in 2026?
      A: Management indicated that they are evaluating options to pull ahead some financing needs for early 2026, maintaining flexibility and efficiency in their funding strategy.

    4. Gigawatt Ramp
      Q: What’s the timeline for the gigawatt ramp?
      A: They expect the ramp to show early megawatt additions in 2029–2030, with details on ramp rate and load mix still under discussion with the counterparty.

    5. Pipeline Evolution
      Q: How will the nine GW pipeline develop?
      A: The nine gigawatt pipeline remains conservative but steady, with expectations for additional customer conversions, including over 200 non-data center customers, as terms and tariffs evolve.

    Research analysts covering CMS ENERGY.