CNX Resources - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day and welcome to the CNX Resources 2025 fourth quarter Q&A conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tyler Lewis, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Tyler Lewis (Senior VP of Finance and Treasurer)

Thank you and good morning, everybody. Welcome to CNX's fourth quarter Q&A conference call. Today, we will be answering questions related to our fourth quarter results. This morning, we posted to our Investor Relations website an updated slide presentation and detailed fourth quarter earnings release data, such as quarterly E&P data, financial statements, and non-GAAP reconciliations, which can be found in a document titled "4Q2025: Earnings Results and Supplemental Information of CNX Resources." Also, we posted to our Investor Relations website our prepared remarks for the quarter, which we hope everyone had a chance to read before the call, as the call today will be used for Q&A. With me today for Q&A are Alan Shepard, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Everett Good, our Chief Financial Officer; and Navneet Behl, our Chief Operating Officer.

Please note that the company's remarks made during this call, including answers to questions, include forward-looking statements which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and our actual results may differ materially as a result of many factors. A discussion of risks and uncertainties related to those factors in CNX's business is contained in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in the release issued today. Before we get into Q&A, I'm going to turn it over to Alan for a couple of comments related to the recent cold weather events. Alan?

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Thanks, Tyler, and good morning, everyone. We normally don't provide opening remarks on these calls, but I'd be remiss today if I didn't take a moment to acknowledge the hard work and incredible efforts of not just our CNX team, but of all the men and women of the natural gas industry who are working to keep the heat and lights on across America during this extraordinary cold weather event we are experiencing. Speaking on behalf of myself, everyone in the room with me, and all of our fellow citizens who are staying warm today, thank you for everything you've done, everything you will continue to do in the days, weeks, and years ahead. With that being said, Operator, can you please now open the line for questions?

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Jacob Roberts with TPH. Please go ahead.

Jacob Roberts (Analyst)

Good morning.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Good morning, Jacob.

Jacob Roberts (Analyst)

We wanted to ask about the commentary on the front-half-weighted capital and TIL program and how we should be thinking about that translating to a flat production profile across the year. Just wondering if you can provide any more granularity on how you're thinking about the TIL schedule quarter to quarter.

Everett Good (CFO)

Yeah, thanks, Jacob. This is Everett. You can generally think about the first half CapEx being about 60% of the year's total. And then from a production basis, it's pretty flat throughout the year. But the weighting of that capital to the first half gives us some flexibility in the second half of the year to potentially accelerate frac activity if conditions warrant.

Jacob Roberts (Analyst)

Okay, great. That's helpful. And turning to the RNG business line, we're curious as to how you view the outlook on the AEC pricing, and is there a pathway to getting that back to the $65 million or $75 million annual run rate? And in terms of the 45Z outlook, is it fair to assume that the $20 million are going to gross up $30 million? Is that also firmly tied to the methane stream in terms of the volume being relatively steady going forward?

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, so thanks for the questions there. Let's start with the PA Tier 1 REC market. So that market's been pretty stable since, call it, spring of last year. With the Trump administration coming in, it's softened a little bit. I think longer-term outlook for that market, the prices you're seeing now are basically what you need to underwrite sort of new solar and wind activity in the PJM markets. So for value per megawatt hour to increase there, you're going to need to see some of the step-ups in the required percent of contribution to the grid from renewables. So that's sort of the long-term bull case as those standards tighten; you should see pricing move up. But in the near term, it's sort of settled into the marginal cost of bringing on new renewable supply.

On 45Z, yeah, I think the way to think about that is current production levels we're able to generate on a run rate basis about $30 million a year with the initial proposed guidance. We'll see what the final guidance looks like when it comes out and if there's any adjustments to that.

Jacob Roberts (Analyst)

Great. I appreciate the time.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Leo Mariani with Roth. Please go ahead.

Leo Mariani (Analyst)

Hi, I was hoping you could talk about the Utica program here in 2026. I'm only seeing kind of three turn-in-lines, probably a little bit lower than I expected. It seems like the company's been very excited about the Utica and made some good progress. So it just seemed like maybe it was a little smaller program this year. So just trying to reconcile that. But maybe some of this is just timing or maybe some of the 2026 wells are coming on next year.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, I think it's the latter, Leo. I appreciate the question. I mean, it's really nothing to indicate the underlying kind of belief in the Utica or anything like that. It's just we have a lot of TILs from last year coming online. We have some Southwest PA inventory that we want to harvest that's really economic. And then we're going to continue in the last half of the year back at it, fracs at the wellhead on the Utica. So I don't know if Nav has got anything to add, but nothing to read into on sort of the TIL timing there.

Navneet Behl (COO)

Yeah, yeah, Leo, I can add. We are really confident of our deep Utica program right now. As Alan mentioned, this is just a timing issue, nothing else. In fact, we'll be completing about five Utica laterals this year. So it is a function of timing on when we complete it.

Leo Mariani (Analyst)

Okay, that's very helpful for sure. And then, Alan, you kind of went on the call talking about weather here. Just wanted to get a sense, are you guys expecting some disruption to the operations or the volumes here in the first quarter? Obviously, it sounds like your team's doing a great job, but just wanted to get a sense if you think there's some impact here.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

No, we're not. So our team's been preparing for the last weeks heading into this event. They've done a tremendous job keeping the field running. The numbers that we put out today include any expected disruptions. So nothing on that front.

Leo Mariani (Analyst)

Okay, that's helpful for sure. And then just lastly on your new tech business, wanted to get a sense if there's any update in terms of how some of the other businesses are progressing, like AutoSep on the service side. And I know you guys have also discussed kind of some CNG, LNG ambitions over time.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, on the AutoSep, I think, as we mentioned before, we fully internalized, adopted that technology. We use it on our flowbacks, provided tremendous cost savings, environmental and safety benefits. We are the sort of non-op on that. We've outsourced that to an OFS company who's continuing to roll that out across the Appalachia here. Everything we're seeing is it's starting to be adopted, and we think 2026 might be an uptick year for that, but nothing contributing yet materially to the financial bottom line. When it does, we'll provide guidance on that. As far as the other businesses, the tech still exists for those businesses, but just nothing material to update on those right now.

Leo Mariani (Analyst)

Okay, thanks.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Michael Scialla with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Michael Scialla (Analyst)

Yeah, good morning. You guys said in your prepared remarks, you expect to be responsive to any material changes in gas prices this year. Everett, you mentioned you'd consider adding a frac crew in the second half of 2026. Wanted to just see, is that built into the CapEx guidance range, that $20 million variance for this year, or any more detail you could provide there would suggest what CapEx could do for the full year?

Everett Good (CFO)

Yeah, Michael, yeah, any uptick in activity is not included in our base ranges. What we're seeing right now in terms of pricing, after you get beyond the February contract, where it falls off pretty significantly in terms of the strips, so we're not seeing the price activity yet, though it kind of incentivizes us to add frac activity in the second half of 2026.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, just to add on, we're not going to chase sort of spot activity. When we talk about adding, it would be some sort of long-term call associated with new infrastructure, new power plants, something like that that would really get the 2027, 2028, 2029 strip moving. We're not going to try to jump around to catch a month of pricing.

Michael Scialla (Analyst)

Got it. Okay. And then just wanted to see if you could add any color on the three deep Utica wells you turn-in-line for the quarter. I realize it's early days, but anything you can say there in terms of cost or production?

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

I think everything's generally aligned. Nav, Anything to add?

Navneet Behl (COO)

Yeah, our team has been really working on the drilling cost, and like we had guided, our average Utica cost is about $1,700 per ft. So that's on the cost. And second, on the performance, these wells are in line with our expected performance. And we're pretty confident. And now we are into the spacing evaluation. So we have two spacing tests going on now. One is 1,300-foot spacing, and then second is 1,500-foot spacing. And as we get more results from these tests, we'll be getting that information out.

Michael Scialla (Analyst)

Great. Look forward to that. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

Next question comes from Kalei Akamine with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Kalei Akamine (Analyst)

Hey, good morning, guys. For my first question, I want to ask about coal mine methane volumes, kind of a modest downtick year-over-year, maybe $0.5 billion off $17.5 million from last year. Can you kind of help us understand the activity set behind the volumes, how that may compare to last year, and how many years of visibility you have looking forward?

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, the way to think about it, those volumes are really the primary driver is the underlying mining activity at that particular mine. Our expectation is that we're sort of in that range moving forward, assuming that mine continues to operate. That life of mine is 20+ years. It's a metallurgical mine in Virginia, if you're familiar with it. So really, any sort of wiggle you see in volumes is just a sort of function of the pace of their longwall and what needs to be gassed.

Kalei Akamine (Analyst)

Got it. Thank you, Alan. For my second question, can you just remind us on the hedging strategy? When do you guys expect to be done with 2027?

Everett Good (CFO)

Yeah, yeah, yeah, Kalei, I can take that. So for 2027, I mean, as we approach that year, we look to be approximately 80% hedged. 2027 is a really good year for us. Right now, we have kind of a weighted average NYMEX price of about $4. So we target that level around there based on what we can get in the basis markets as well. So that $4 kind of swaps in a business performs really, really well at that level.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, and we're 60% hedged already on.

Everett Good (CFO)

Yeah, we're a little over 60% hedged on that.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, so we'll dive into the rest of that book throughout the year. Given we're already 60% hedged, we can be a little more opportunistic on putting those on. But as Everett mentioned, we'll be at our 80% sort of number heading into that year.

Kalei Akamine (Analyst)

Got it. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Jeff Bellman with Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.

Jeff Bellman (Analyst)

Hi, good morning, everybody. I had two questions. First one, I appreciate the comments around not chasing a front-month gas price or a near price, but maybe just to expand on it, can you frame maybe a little bit more of kind of what you want to see? You mentioned a 2027 strip, 2028 strip. Is this something where you want to get through the winter, kind of see where storage levels end in terms of kind of timing on any kind of increase in activity? Just maybe a little bit more on kind of how you're thinking about level setting from maintenance to maybe something higher. Thanks.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, so maybe break it into two parts. I think long term, right? We've been in maintenance of production, give or take, for the last six years. That's really a function of just the constraints up here in Appalachia, the unwillingness for regulators to allow additional pipelines to get gas to where it should go. Then some of the projects you are seeing for potential infrastructure and demand, they're sort of longer lead projects with the new power and AI demand. We're hopeful on those, but they're still a few years out. There's no reason to build those volumes just yet.

In terms of jumping up or down 5% any given year, to make that decision as part of your planning cycle, you'd want to be able to have pretty good visibility that the prices aren't going to slip away from you by the time you bring the volumes on. So you'd want to hedge off that if you were going to increase production. And then you're just always trying to manage your TIL count and your DUC count to give you a little bit of flexibility. But that's all just sort of short-term tactics as opposed to sort of the longer-term strategy, which we'd like to see, which is actual increase on the demand side.

Jeff Bellman (Analyst)

Great. Yeah, so a follow-up question on that. Can you just speak more broadly on incremental takeaway? I get it on the greenfield difficulties, but I'm hearing more and more there's smaller projects, brownfield expansions, moving gas west out of Pennsylvania into Ohio, kind of some of the bigger data center growth. Just any thoughts on how everybody's doing in terms of kind of pushing a little bit more gas west and south?

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, a lot of the low-hanging fruit on those western bound projects was taken up last decade. I mean, there are some proposed on the table that get you back sort of to the Midwest area, right, the Leb kind of area. But those haven't been greenlit yet. I mean, the cost of some of those projects is just a little bit challenging just yet. I think everyone's sort of waiting to see sort of what the final outlook is here on AI demand, right? You need kind of those guys to make their decisions, and then we'll be right behind them with the fuel supply to support all that. But yeah, there's some cats and dogs out there, but nothing material to kind of move anybody off maintenance production, in my view.

Jeff Bellman (Analyst)

Gotcha. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. The next question comes from Betty Jiang with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Betty Jiang (Analyst)

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have a question on the 2026 activity of going to do the three wells in Marcellus in CPA and three wells in Utica. It's a surprise just with the Marcellus activity. What's your expectation for the Marcellus productivity in that region?

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, so the way to think about that, that's kind of our stacked pay development, right? So we're going first with the Utica, and then you're just thinking about putting incremental laterals above that on the Marcellus. I think you're in the sort of just shy of 2.0 range, right, with the high ones on those wells.

Betty Jiang (Analyst)

Got it. Back to your core Southwest PA Marcellus, where you're focusing most of your activity, could you just remind us what is your latest inventory runway in that area if you maintain at the 2026 level?

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Yeah, so I think we'll put out the updated acreage counts at the end of Q1, but generally, we're in the 40,000-50,000 acres sort of remaining. So we'll get you towards the end of the decade.

Betty Jiang (Analyst)

Okay. Got it. That's it. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tyler Lewis for any closing remarks.

Tyler Lewis (Senior VP of Finance and Treasurer)

Great. Thank you for joining us, everyone, this morning. Please feel free to reach out if anyone has any additional questions. Otherwise, we'll look forward to speaking with everyone again next quarter. Thank you.

Alan Shepard (President and CEO)

Thanks, everybody.

Everett Good (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.