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    CNX Resources (CNX)

    CNX Q2 2025 Eyes 45Z Tax Credit Run Rate of $30M by 2026

    Reported on Jul 25, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$33.13Last close (Jul 23, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$34.04Open (Jul 24, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.91(+2.75%)
    • Tax Credit Upside: The Q&A highlighted the 45Z tax credit opportunity, with the first eligibility in 2025 and potential to deliver a $30,000,000 annual run rate starting in 2026, providing additional free cash flow and enhancing capital returns.
    • Capital Efficiency and Production Outperformance: The discussion emphasized strong operational execution, including improved production efficiency and base production uptime, as well as a robust one rig drilling program that supports a favorable capital efficiency ratio (approximately $0.85 per million), driving attractive economics.
    • Cost Reduction and Utica Performance: Executives noted that Utica wells are already operating below target costs with performance meeting or exceeding expectations. Ongoing focus on cost optimization and operational improvements supports repeatability and long-term competitive returns, especially relative to Marcellus plays.
    • Regulatory Uncertainty on 45Z Credits: The company’s ability to realize the anticipated $30,000,000 annual credit benefits is subject to final rulemaking and clarity on program eligibility, creating potential delays or reductions in expected free cash flow outcomes.
    • Seasonal Production and CapEx Declines: The execution plan indicates a sequential decline in production for Q3 and Q4 due to front-loaded activity and delayed new turn-in lines, which could pressure near-term revenue growth.
    • Uncertain Market Uptake for RMG Offtake: The success of the RMG product, especially in securing long-term offtake agreements with data centers, is contingent on demonstrating its value and obtaining the first sign-ups, introducing delays and potential setbacks to future revenue streams.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    -7% [N/A]

    The Q2 2025 revenue of $2.8 billion declined by 7% YoY largely due to softer pipeline demand. In previous periods, Q1 2024 saw revenue declines driven by lower natural gas prices and diminished gains on commodity derivatives , and Q1 2025 experienced significant derivative losses despite higher commodity revenue , highlighting how shifts in market dynamics have now moved to weak pipeline performance [N/A].

    Energy Production Revenue

    -4% [N/A]

    Energy Production revenue fell 4% YoY to $1.8 billion, primarily because lower commodity prices offset volume gains. This contrasts with earlier periods such as Q1 2025 when increased average sales prices and higher sales volumes contributed positively to revenue growth , indicating a reversal in market pricing conditions in the current period [N/A].

    Pipeline and Midstream Revenue

    -12% [N/A]

    Pipeline and Midstream revenue dropped 12% YoY to $1.0 billion mainly due to reduced throughput volumes. Earlier, similar trends were evident—Q1 2024 experienced lower third-party gathering volumes , and in Q1 2025, although slight improvements were seen from increased gathering volumes and environmental attribute sales , the current period reflects further contraction in activity [N/A].

    North American Operations Revenue

    +6% [N/A]

    North American operations saw a 6% YoY increase, showcasing operational resilience amidst broader market headwinds. This growth provides a counterbalance to declines in other segments, differing from earlier periods where commodity-related revenues suffered severe downturns and hedging losses impacted overall performance in Q1 2025 , suggesting that core domestic operations have remained robust [N/A].

    Operating Income

    -15% [N/A]

    Operating income fell 15% YoY to $420 million, reflecting significant margin pressures. The decline is attributed to a combination of weaker pipeline demand and challenging derivative positions—as seen in Q1 2024 when revenue pressures from lower commodity prices and diminished derivative gains hurt margins , and in Q1 2025 when large derivative losses further suppressed income —now culminating in the current period’s reduced profitability [N/A].

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Regulatory Uncertainty and Tax Credit Initiatives

    In Q1 2025, there was a brief mention of 45Q with little detail. In Q4 2024, detailed discussions on 45V and 45Q focused on regulatory clarity and rule restrictions. In Q3 2024, executives emphasized waiting for final guidance on both credits.

    Q2 2025 focused primarily on the 45Z tax credit initiative, noting that eligibility begins in 2025 with a wait-and-see approach regarding final rulemaking.

    Shift in focus: From detailed discussions on 45V/45Q and regulatory ambiguities in previous periods to a targeted emphasis on 45Z, while maintaining a cautious tone regarding rule finalization.

    Production Performance and Pipeline Volatility

    Q1 2025 discussions detailed turn-in-lines scheduling and noted seasonal declines with strong operational performance. Q4 2024 highlighted the use of deferred TILs and modest production declines. Q3 2024 adjusted TIL scheduling and emphasized production flexibility.

    Q2 2025 reiterated TIL scheduling with front-loaded activity and sequential declines, while also citing improved operational execution that delivered better-than-expected results.

    Consistent focus: Operational execution and scheduling remain key, with an emphasis on efficiency improvements amid cyclic production challenges.

    Capital Efficiency and Cost Reduction Measures

    Q3 2024 showcased significant gains in drilling efficiency and cost reductions (e.g., 23% improvement in drilling time and cost declines). Q4 2024 discussed maintaining target capital efficiency and optimizing Utica costs. Q1 2025 did not address these topics [N/A].

    Q2 2025 renewed focus on capital efficiency with strong remarks on improved drilling efficiency, optimized operations, and competitive cost structures, particularly in the Utica play.

    Renewed and positive: After an absence in Q1 2025, cost optimization and efficiency improvements are again in the spotlight, reinforcing a positive operational sentiment.

    Environmental Monetization and Methane Capture Initiatives

    Q4 2024 provided detailed discussions on coal mine methane (CMM) and its role in hydrogen production, alongside monetization strategies and regulatory challenges. Q3 2024 addressed similar topics with emphasis on regulatory uncertainties. Q1 2025 did not mention these initiatives.

    Q2 2025 touched on environmental monetization via the 45Z tax credit and the RMG product, albeit in a more streamlined format rather than the earlier detailed discourse.

    De-emphasized: Once robustly discussed, the focus has narrowed to targeted initiatives, reflecting a reduced breadth of discussion and possibly a recalibration of priorities.

    Emerging RMG Offtake Challenges for Data Centers

    Not mentioned in Q1 2025, Q4 2024, or Q3 2024 [N/A].

    Introduced in Q2 2025, with discussions on offering RMG as a sustainable energy solution for data centers and exploring third-party marketing partnerships.

    Emerging topic: A completely new focus that could significantly impact future monetization strategies and broaden market reach.

    Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation Strategies

    Q1 2025 presented detailed discussion on $125 million share buybacks and flexibility in capital allocation based on free cash flow per share. Q4 2024 outlined flexible capital allocation and addressed CapEx guidance along with buyback considerations. Q3 2024 emphasized a disciplined, long-term capital allocation process including shareholder returns.

    Q2 2025 did not include specific commentary on shareholder returns, buybacks, or detailed capital allocation strategies [N/A].

    Less emphasized: Previously a robust area of discussion, this topic sees reduced mention in the current period, possibly due to shifting focus toward operational and regulatory priorities.

    Market Price Volatility Exposure (Unhedged Volume Risks)

    Q1 2025 mentioned that the company is 85% hedged with limited risk on the unhedged 15%. Q3 and Q4 2024 did not contain explicit commentary on this topic [N/A].

    Q2 2025 did not specifically address unhedged volume risks or detailed market volatility exposure, aside from general hedging strategy comments.

    Reduced focus: Once a point of emphasis in Q1 2025, explicit discussion of market volatility exposure has diminished in later periods, suggesting either improved hedging outcomes or less perceived risk.

    1. Tax Credits
      Q: Timing & run rate for tax credit?
      A: Management expects eligibility in 2025 with the potential to achieve a $30,000,000/year run rate by 2026; the program is structured to run through 2029 pending final rule details.

    2. Production Surprise
      Q: What drove Q2 production surprise?
      A: The strong Q2 performance was driven by new well TILs, improved operational execution, enhanced production efficiency, and high base production uptime.

    3. Drilling & CapEx
      Q: How’s second-half drilling and capex?
      A: Management noted that most TILs are front-loaded, leading to a decline in Q3 with a subsequent pickup in Q4, and capex will mirror this phased activity.

    4. Utica Performance
      Q: Utica costs and production versus Marcellus?
      A: The team reported costs below target with performance meeting or slightly exceeding expectations, making Utica wells competitive with Marcellus returns while working to further drive down expenses.

    5. RMG Qualification
      Q: Which volumes qualify for tax credits?
      A: Management explained that qualifying volumes are a blend between 45Z and PA Tier one credits, meaning some gas contributes to both programs under a non–one-to-one conversion, subject to final rule clarifications.

    6. Market & AI Demand
      Q: Impact of AI on regional gas demand?
      A: CNX is enthusiastic about the data center opportunities in the region, seeing potential for increased in‐basin demand, although the hedging approach remains unchanged until clearer market signals emerge.

    7. Carbon Credits
      Q: How is gas sold for carbon credits?
      A: The strategy is to capture the highest value by selling RMG in either the voluntary carbon market or through existing regulatory RPS programs, recognizing that stacking is limited.

    8. Long-Term Contracts
      Q: Wait for tighter market before long-term deals?
      A: Management prefers a wait-and-see approach until a data center signs an electricity offtake, which will provide a clearer signal for locking in long-term contracts.

    Research analysts covering CNX Resources.